Updating Electoral College Map

[jerseyhoya34]

thebin said:

There is something we can agree on- the undecided voter at this point is usually weak-minded- not the noble independent progressive beast that the media sometimes portrays them as. Nope- just morons.

Well, not everyone votes on the basis of ideology or political beliefs. This year, more than in previous elections, the outcome hinges on events on the ground in Iraq and the US. Undecided voters may not be compelled by ideology, but they, more than likely, are those who are waiting to observe events on the ground with our economy and the war in Iraq before making a decision.

So, I think it would be a mistake to characterize them as morons at this time because their decision-making process, by nature, requires more time.

[jerseyhoya34]

showcase said:

Well, the race appears to be tightening up some in a few states (Wisc., Az., and most surprisingly Colo. are apparently tied based on the last poll), but what's more surprising is that Kerry apparently has a 6 point lead in Fla. despite Nader's 4% take in the polls.

While I can't imagine Bush winning without Fla., there's obviously a long way to go, and we haven't even seen what the convention will do for GWB's numbers. If the experts are right, it shouldn't do too much, since the prevailing theory is that the overwhelming majority of the electorate has already made up its mind, but I bet they're wrong.

Still, if GWB does make up serious ground in a number of states post-convention, I think his reelection is in serious doubt, because undecideds historically go 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously, that might not apply to this particular election, and Bush (or God forbit al-Qaeda) might pull off an 'October Surprise,' but the conventional wisdom (no pun intended) would suggest that Dubya has a lot riding on how things unfold in NYC.

Sure, the race is tightening up in a few states, but what does that mean? The fact that most of the states that lean slightly to Kerry were Bush states in 2000 makes me think that Kerry is in good shape at this time (Using ElectionProjection.com's analysis). States like Virginia and Colorado are now slight Bush leans, which says something about his position right now on the ground.

[jerseyhoya34]

showcase said:

Well, the race appears to be tightening up some in a few states (Wisc., Az., and most surprisingly Colo. are apparently tied based on the last poll), but what's more surprising is that Kerry apparently has a 6 point lead in Fla. despite Nader's 4% take in the polls.

While I can't imagine Bush winning without Fla., there's obviously a long way to go, and we haven't even seen what the convention will do for GWB's numbers. If the experts are right, it shouldn't do too much, since the prevailing theory is that the overwhelming majority of the electorate has already made up its mind, but I bet they're wrong.

Still, if GWB does make up serious ground in a number of states post-convention, I think his reelection is in serious doubt, because undecideds historically go 2-1 against incumbents. Obviously, that might not apply to this particular election, and Bush (or God forbit al-Qaeda) might pull off an 'October Surprise,' but the conventional wisdom (no pun intended) would suggest that Dubya has a lot riding on how things unfold in NYC.

Sure, the race is tightening up in a few states, but what does that mean? The fact that most of the states that lean slightly to Kerry were Bush states in 2000 makes me think that Kerry is in good shape at this time (Using ElectionProjection.com's analysis). States like Virginia and Colorado are now slight Bush leans, which says something about his position right now on the ground.

I've been reading a lot of polls lately, and it looks like it is Kerry's race to lose and one that Bush can't win. So, BC04 is relying on tactics that bring down Kerry's numbers, such as the Swift Boat Veterans smear.

[showcase]

Interesting article in the WaPo today noting that new registrations are up in Virginia, particularly in the area around DC. To the extent that these people would be excluded from a poll of "likely voters," it could suggest that Virginia is not as safe a state for Bush as polling would tend to suggest.

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4289-2004Oct3.html