A review of Big East remaining games, BET seeding and post season prospects. The Cliff Notes version for today is that we would really benefit from a South Florida win at home against Cincinnati today.
Syracuse (16-1 Big East record, 29-1 overall) – Remaining game home vs Louisville. As much as it pains me to say this, Syracuse will be playing to clinch the best Big East record ever as no team has ever had fewer than two losses in conference. A win vs Louisville would also lock an NCAA 1 seed. Still a 1 seed even if they lose against Louisville but win their first Big East game, and probably still be a one seed even if they lose their next two, depending on what happens in the ACC and Big Ten.
Marquette (13-3, 24-5) - @ Cincinnati, Georgetown – Inside track on a Big East 2 seed and close to clinching a first round bye. If the Hoyas beat ND on Monday, Marquette could clinch the two seed with a win at Cincinnati in which case they would have a lot less to play for next Saturday against the Hoyas. However, if they lose to Cincinnati after a Hoya win against ND, they are a 2 with a win against the Hoyas and probably a 4 or even a 5 at the Big East with a loss. In the NCAA they are a likely 3-4 seed in most scenarios.
Notre Dame (12-4, 20-9) – Assuming they will win their last game at home next Saturday at Providence, Notre Dame’s outcomes are pretty easy to understand: Beat Georgetown and clinch a double bye, either as a 3 seed (if Marquette beats both Cincinnati and Georgetown) or a 2 seed (if Marquette were to lose @ Cincinnati or against the Hoyas). Assuming again the win against Providence, they also are assured of a double bye provided that Cincinnati does not win out. In the NCAAs their 8 losses probably keep them in the 6-7 range unless they reach the Big East Tournament final (then a 4-5).
Georgetown (11-5, 21-6) – Notre Dame, @ Marquette. Notre Dame’s loss to St Johns yesterday provides a clear, but obviously difficult road to the 2 seed – beat both Notre Dame and Marquette, combined with a Marquette loss @cincinnati. The Marquette loss to Cincinnati becomes incredibly important in this scenario, because it would not only tie us with Marquette, but also because it would drag our 2-0 record against Marquette into any of the tiebreakers with Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati or South Florida. Beat Notre Dame and we have a high likelihood of a double bye even with a loss at Marquette, if Cincinnati were to lose at South Florida today. Lose both games and we are a likely 6 seed unless Louisville were to win at Syracuse in which case we would be a 7. In the NCAAs we could be anywhere from a 2 seed (win out in conference and win the tournament) to no worse than a 6 (lose our next three games).
Cincinnati (10-5, 20-8) - @ South Florida today, Marquette, @nova – Because of a bad out of conference loss to Presbyterian, Cincinnati probably needs to win 2 or possibly 3 more games among their next 3 regular season games and their first BET game. They are a problem for both the Hoyas and ND since they beat both of them and win tiebreakers. They are also competing with South Florida, West Virginia and Connecticut for NCAA at large births. If both the Hoyas and Cincinnati were to win out, it would create a likely four way tie for second at 13-5 which would make Cincinnati the #2 seed, with the Hoyas the #3. Alternatively, they could push the Hoyas to a 5-6 seed, by going 2-1 in their final two games, even if Georgetown splits with ND and Marquette. With a big late season run the Bearcats could be as high as an NCAA 6, but, as noted earlier, they could still fail to make the big dance.
South Florida (10-5, 17-11) – Cincinnati today, @ Louisville, West Virginia – The winner of this year’s “Boy did I catch a break with the Big East’s unbalanced schedule” award, the Bulls are 6-0 against their 3 home and home teams (Villanova, Pitt, and Providence) who are a combined 11-36 in league play. Conversely however, they are 0-4 against the current top four Big East teams, losing those games by a combined 69 points. Because of a poor out of conference record, USF has not even been on the NCAA tournament radar screen until recently, but no Big East team with 12 wins in conference has failed to make the tournament and only one team with 11 win has ever failed to get there. Moreover, USF’s last three games are all against Big East bubble teams (although Louisville is only one win away from clinching a tournament bid). If they were to win out, they could be as high as a 4 seed in the BET. USF could take a gigantic step forward for their NCAA chances – and make the Hoyas and Notre Dame very happy – by beating Cincinnati today. Otherwise, their end of season game at home against West Virginia, could be an elimination game, with the loser needing to win at least two BET games to make the big dance.
Louisville – (9-6, 21-7) – Pitt today, South Florida, @syracuse – Strong out of conference performance and strength of schedule mean that they are close to a lock for the tournament, probably only needing one win among their final three regular season or first BET games to get in and maybe not even that. Can finish with no worse than the 7 seed for the BET even if they lose their next three since they win all the tiebreakers against all potential opponents with a 9-9 conference record and could sneak into the 4 seed were they to win at Syracuse. With a strong finish to the season, they might be as high as a 4 seed in the NCAA.
Seton Hall – (8-9, 19-10) – @ Providence, Pitt - Devastating overtime loss at home to Rutgers yesterday pushed the Hall back onto the bubble, after seemingly securing an NCAA birth with their big win over the Hoyas. Their out of conference record against NCAA bubble teams is good, but they lack a signature OOC win. Assuming a win @ De Paul, the Pirates would be 9-9 and in a likely tie with some combination of Connecticut and West Virginia. In a 3 way tie, or a two way tie with UConn, their fate would be determined by Georgetown’s relative standing vs Notre Dame, with the 8 seed going to Seton Hall if the Hoyas were to finish ahead of ND and UConn getting the single bye if ND ended with the better record.
Connecticut – (7-9, 17-11) – @ Providence, Pitt - Probably in better shape than the other Big East bubble teams, provided that they win out in conference because they have a very difficult schedule (they got both Syracuse and ND twice) and the lingering suspicion that their talent level could provide problems in any NCAA matchup. Would be a lock at 9-9 with a first round BET win.
West Virginia – (7-9, 17-12) – De Paul, @usf – 2-7 record over their last 9 games has the Mountaineers in NCAA free fall despite a strong out of conference record. They either need to win at USF or win a couple of BET games to feel secure about making the NCAA. Only way they get the single bye is to win out while UConn loses at least once and Seton Hall lose to De Paul Finishing ninth or tenth may be a plus, however, since they probably could use the extra win that a first round BET game would likely provide.
St Johns – (6-10, 13-16) – @ Pitt, @ Rutgers - Only way they make the NCAA would be to win the BET.
Rutgers – (5-11, 13-16) – Villanova, St. John’s - Only way they make the NCAA would be to win the BET.
Pittsburgh – (4-11, 15-13) - @ Louisville, St. Johns, @ UConn - Only way they make the NCAA would be to win the BET.
Villanova – (4-12, 11-17) - @ Rutgers, Cincinnati – Only way they make any tournament would be to win the BET and that will not happen. Would make the rest of the league quite happy if they could take out Cincinnati on the last day of the season.
Providence – (14-15, 3-13) – Connecticut, @ Notre Dame –
De Paul – (2-14, 11-17) - @ West Virginia, Seton Hall – Likely cannon fodder for two desperate teams.
At the risk of being accused of over-moderation, here is a link to the current BET brackets on HoyaSaxa.com.
