TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 15, 2017 18:12:24 GMT -5
According to RealGM, TJ Warren is the only current NBA player from NC State. Their best NBA player was Spud Webb maybe? Tom Gugliotta? So yeah, I would take our brand every day of the week. David Thompson called. Said Hi. Sure. Don't think that really disproves my point though--he is literally old enough to be the grandparent of current high school players. To put how long ago his career was in context, Brandon Bowman hadn't been born when Thompson stopped playing the NBA, and I hadn't turned one yet.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 15, 2017 16:23:16 GMT -5
So let me get this straight: a school with a fairly storied basketball tradition that hasn't won a national title since the 1980s is putting its coach on notice that the next 3-4 weeks are sink or swim. The team is currently 14-12, sits 2nd to last in its conference, finished last year with a losing record, and has been openly questioned for its effort and underachievement with respect to talent level this season. And they probably won't get Archie Miller even if they offered him. I guess the parallel finally ends when we consider they made a Sweet 16 as recently as 2 years ago. But still... They'd been in the NCAAT four straight years (including two S16s) his first four years on the job. No bid last year. And now this year. It's incredibly ironic to me that it's NC State of all schools doing this. You'd think they'd learned their lesson after running Herb Sendek out. All he did was earn five straight NCAAT bids but the mob was restless. Enter Lowe and five straight misses (including three years without even an NIT bid). Lots of schools miss again (and again) after missing so badly with the first hire. But did they? No. And credit to them! They got Gottfried. And immediately got four bids. Those who do not learn from history..... According to RealGM, TJ Warren is the only current NBA player from NC State. Their best NBA player was Spud Webb maybe? Tom Gugliotta? So yeah, I would take our brand every day of the week.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 15, 2017 10:27:27 GMT -5
People are right to point out how damaging the Maryland collapse has been on our season. The Arkansas state game is another. Even though Arkansas state turned out to be pretty good, that loss cost us 8 RPI spots. That's a huge swing when you are on the bubble. I basically blame the Maryland game for the loss to Arkansas State. We lost that game in the first half and we started out horribly because we were still stunned from blowing the Maryland game. Also, considering one of the big things that might keep us out is the # of losses we have, even one more win would be really helpful.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 14, 2017 11:40:35 GMT -5
The only thing that matters at this point is the next game. They really need to keep that "one game at a time" mentality if they are going to have any chance. They have shown over the last few weeks the ability to compete with, and beat, pretty much any team in the conference. They have also shown earlier in the year the ability to play really poorly for extended periods. Stay focused and locked in on defense and thing might work out for the Hoyas. Start looking too far ahead and they might end up being lucky to end up in the NIT!!! At this point the only game that matters is Sunday!!! Well, that may be a good strategy for the players, and if so I hope they follow your advice, but I'm going to continue taking all the games for the rest of the season at the same time, and there is literally nothing anyone can do to stop me. I'm thinking the other people reading and posting in this thread titled "Tournament Chances" are going to be doing the same. Personally, I'm already thinking about who might be a good match-up for us in the first round of the NCAAs
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 13, 2017 10:47:54 GMT -5
I think Aleutian is generally right, in that we have a very good chance if we get 18 wins, although 15 losses may be too many for the committee to get over, since it would be the most losses by an at large team in NCAA history. In terms of projections, we're still a long shot to even get to 17-14. KenPom has us finishing at 16-15 (7-11), with a 19% chance to beat Creighton, 91% chance to beat DePaul, 50% chance to beat St. John's, 39% chance to beat Seton Hall and 27% chance to beat Villanova. www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 8, 2017 11:32:50 GMT -5
Taught by this staff, definitely.. A better lead guard will be a welcome sight but the team still has to be taught where to be on the court, Waters isn't gonna make it up for teammates on the fly.. It's not a surprise to me that the pass that led to Hart's 3 pointer at the end wasn't made by Brunson or Divencenzo.. The Nova staff has taught a system & developed playmakers, the Gtown staff needs to do the same.. Sorta what comes first, the players or the coaches? I think the Nova coaching staff has a mind set of what it takes to succeed in today's college basketball and recruits players who have the skills they are looking for or can be coached-up to acquire them. During the game they had 3 sometimes 4 guys on the court who could dribble penetrate, pass, hit 3's and play great defense. At most we have one guy (LJ) who can do 2 or 3 of those things. During Nova's run to a 17 point lead (as one poster pointed out) it looked like we were a JV team playing against the varsity. They cooled off in the second half, due in part to our better defense, but when they are cooking they showed, like they did last year in the NCAA tourney, that they are unbeatable. I keep saying on this board that they are the model that JT3 should be using. Stop going for the playmaking point guard or the hot shooting forward or the great defender. We need guys who can do all three. And as for the big man U. Other than an eraser in the paint, like Ochefu or Hibbert, we should focus on the 6'6" - 6'-8" swing men like Otto Porter. If you look at the recruiting classes, I think JT3 has gone that route starting with the Porter/Wittington class--Porter, Whittington, Trawick, Domingo, Copeland, Mourning, Peak, White, Derrickson and Kaleb were all recruited play the 2-4 as players that could dribble/pass/shoot/defend. Some were obviously bigger projects than others, but regardless of the hype, the problem is that, for various reasons, only Porter, Peak and Trawick have actually developed into that type of player. Derrickson is on his way, I think, but even if he turns into a star next year, that's still less than one player reaching their potential in five classes. As it stands, 2 stars (Porter & Peak) and one really good player (Trawick) isn't going to get it done over 5 recruiting classes.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 7, 2017 16:20:00 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been answered before. When does Villanova determine what games it plays on campus and what games at Wells Fargo. The last time I remember Georgetown playing at the Pavilion was '05. I don't think it's only a matter of a weeknight as I think we played at Wells Fargo in '13 on a weeknight. Tuesday is an open date for both the Flyers and Sixers. I'm not sure how they make the determination but they've made more of an effort to play in the Pavilion more often. Smaller arenas give a more intimate feel and a stronger home court advantage. Big NBA arenas aren't getting utilized to their potential in today's college game. Once they finish the remodel, I'm sure that the vast majority of their home games will end up in the Pavilion. Especially years when Wachovia is hosting NCAA games. I know we played at the Pavilion in 2005-06, but that was because they were in the running for a 1 seed and they were actively avoiding playing at Wachovia to keep it from being considered their "home court" for the purposes of determining whether they could play there in the NCAAs.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 6, 2017 10:05:03 GMT -5
Quit living in fear. Â If we don't get it right then we try again. Â This is a great job for someone who can settle in. Â If the first hire doesn't work can't be worse than what we are watching. Â I go back and forth on what would be best long term for the program if the admin decides to make a change after this season (count me in the minority who thinks if things get bad enough there could be a change). But what about giving Wallace a shot? Too risky? I think giving a graduate assistant who has never been an assistant coach the head coaching job would be a little risky.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 3, 2017 12:49:50 GMT -5
With regard to defensive rebounding, as the year has progressed, we have rebounded better. In the last seven games (5-2), we have grabbed 80+ percent of the defensive caroms in five of those contests. Let's hope for a strong effort on the defensive glass tomorrow. From your mouth to God's ears. And let's get Sanogo and Delgado in foul trouble. I'm looking at you LJ. Just for the love of God don't charge. Of course, a big reason for our success on the defensive boards recently is that the teams we've been playing are bad at offensive rebounding. Xavier, who grabbed 35.5% of their misses against us, is the only team we've played in the last seven games that's in the top 50 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. DePaul, who grabbed 1/3 of their misses against us, is the next best offensive rebounding team we've played in the last 7 games, and they're ranked 125th (I'm willing to give the Hoyas a bit of a pass there, however, on the "their misses were so bad it was hard to rebound" theory). The other five teams are all outside the top 200 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. The bad news is that Seton Hall is 23rd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. The good news is that a large chunk of that is Delgado and Sanogo, so if the Hoyas can get them in foul trouble, that'll go a long way towards making it easier to get the rebound. Of course, Delgado only averages 3.1 fouls per 40 min played and Sanogo averages 4.0 fouls per 40, so neither are particularly foul prone.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 2, 2017 12:09:16 GMT -5
Watched Seton Hall lose to Xavier last night. One thing very obvious about SH. They are physical. This game will be the first real test of not just our athletic ability, coaching, and training but also our guts. We really have to be ready to fight for rebounds and loose balls. All our guys, but especially our bigs, have to show up. And that means also taking it to their bigs and drawing fouls. This is going to be a perfect test of our intestinal fortitude and will go a long way in determining if we are truly tournament worthy. If we can't beat Seton Hall at home, we don't belong in the Tournament. PERIOD! Checks out. We were swept by them in 2014 and 2016, and swept them in 2015.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2017 14:49:30 GMT -5
Well it is not just one game. LJ is good for at least one charge a game. Given his tendency to commit one or two over aggressive fouls on defense per game, even one charge can force him to the bench for extended minutes. Does anyone know where we can find stats on offensive fouls? I don't think this is right, but I'm not going to go look at all the old play-by-play. Honestly, I'm surprised people are saying this--Peak's ability to stay out of foul trouble has been one of the best things about the season--he's played 82.6% of the Hoyas minutes, which is the most of any Hoya, and the fifth highest percentage of any Big East player. He's played 80.7% of minutes in conference, which is still the most of any Hoya and good for 13th highest in conference, and that's even with a greater weight being given to the Marquette game, where he got hurt and only played 22 minutes. For comparison's sake, Peak only played 61.6% of available minutes last year, so there's definitely been a big improvement.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2017 14:35:23 GMT -5
And I've said this before in prior years, but I'll say it again: A staple of the Princeton offense is reversing the post and having the guards dive down and post up. But we very infrequently do it. LJ would seem to have an outstanding set of skills to make that work and you would think Rodney would too with his shooting and leaping ability. Especially when those two are being well-defended off the bounce, I'd love to see us get them involved that way. The only times I can think of us reversing the post one Hayes pass to Mosely and one Hayes pass to Kaleb. Neither was successful, nor do I understand why those were the two guards that we tried it with.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2017 12:15:36 GMT -5
Every team from now on will try to take charges and get fouls on Peak...he's got to be ready for that and not barrel into the center of the paint (even though he can convert those situations). I totally agree. It's gotten where I cringe every time he drives into traffic, which just as often as not ends in a foul, turnover or miss. Yet when it works it can be game-winning, as it was last night. Imagine how good he could be if he learned to recognize when the lane just isn't there, and pull up or dish. Dave Lietao must be a basketball genius to be the first coach to figure out that Peak tends to drive hard to the basket and might be susceptible to defenders trying to take a charge. Seriously--why do you think that other teams weren't aware that Peak drives aggressively to the basket? Let's not let overrate one game where Peak (and/or the refs) had some questionable decision making. He uses 24.6% of the Hoyas possessions and has an assist rate of 20.4%, which is roughly what Markel Starks' assist rate was in 2013. Prior to last night, Peak hadn't had more than 3 turnovers in a game since St. John's, and he's averaging fewer than 3 turnovers per game. He's shooting 50% on 2PT field goals (I don't have a break-down b/w his shots at the rim / 2PT jumpers, but I'd bet he isn't shooting 50% on jumpers). He's also averaging fewer than 3 personal fouls per game (3.1 per 40 min) and draws almost six fouls per 40 minutes. Peak has been fantastic at getting the rim, finishing and/or drawing a foul. He might be the best offensive player on the Hoyas, especially if he can get his 3 pt shot working again (both he and Pryor have 2.0 offensive win shares, though Pryor's ORtg is higher--116.7 to 110.5).
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 1, 2017 8:13:36 GMT -5
I think people generally have it right here, which is nice. Usually we act like a bubble team needs to have a resume that looks like a 5/6 seed to make the tournament. 18 wins, 9-9 in conference, no losses outside the RPI top 100, a top 10/15 strength of schedule, at least three top 25 RPI wins, one on a neutral court and one on the road. That's a team that might go to Dayton, but is almost assuredly in. Of course, we've got to win a game at Seton Hall or at Creighton and not slip up at home or against the real bottom dwellers (and/or steal a game from Nova). It's not going to be easy, but its definitely doable. All of those things are true, but also true is the fact that a 12-10, 3-6 team very rarely turns into a tournament team half way through the season. I want to believe, but we've been at this exact point several times in the past several years. Agreed. I think we've basically fallen one or two (very winnable) games short of the NCAAs every year we've missed it (other than last year), but the board consensus was we needed to win like 4 more games. This year people seem to understand that the threshold for the NCAAs is nowhere near as high as we think. 9-9 is likely good enough, and 9-9 is definitely possible. Saturday pretty much has to be a win though for the Hoyas to pull it out. Also, it'd be nice if the Hoyas could pull it out, if only so that we don't have to ever talk about the "What If" of the 50 seconds against Maryland that cost us two games.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 31, 2017 11:23:32 GMT -5
I think people generally have it right here, which is nice. Usually we act like a bubble team needs to have a resume that looks like a 5/6 seed to make the tournament. 18 wins, 9-9 in conference, no losses outside the RPI top 100, a top 10/15 strength of schedule, at least three top 25 RPI wins, one on a neutral court and one on the road. That's a team that might go to Dayton, but is almost assuredly in.
Of course, we've got to win a game at Seton Hall or at Creighton and not slip up at home or against the real bottom dwellers (and/or steal a game from Nova). It's not going to be easy, but its definitely doable.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 27, 2017 11:45:04 GMT -5
I agree totally not to be vicious but don't let pick and rolls result in easy layups and if there is a foul it should be given early and effectively so it is not for the and one! The only concern - our bigs foul enough when they are NOT trying to foul. If they start giving fouls to send a message, we will have Reggie as our center by mid-second half! And Trey will still be looking on from the bench, waiting for the call.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 25, 2017 13:08:49 GMT -5
The notion that Pitt fans chased away Jamie Dixon is scary...he is an excellent coach and they should have been happy with him indefinitely. It is one anecdotal example, but a good reminder nonetheless that there is significant risk in both retention and change. One way to avoid becoming Pitt is to not hire a retread without a particularly impressive resume. Stallings missed the NCAAs three of the four years prior to Pitt hiring him. And Vandy's performance in the SEC, a conference consisting of Kentucky and ~2-3 other good teams each year, and the NCAAs (when they made it) wasn't exactly anything to write home about. It's not that hard to hire someone with upside instead.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 23, 2017 14:40:21 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm happier when the Hoyas are 30-3 v 3-30. Why aren't you? Why do you care so little about Georgetown as an institution and Georgetown as a basketball program that you don't care if the school's flagship athletic program is well run and successful? I think it can be well run but not have a good record. I do not think it somehow reflects poorly on the school that, goodness forbid, the basketball team did not win enough games. I don't know of anyone besides you who doesn't think the team needs to be good at basketball to be well run. Winning games isn't the sole requirement for a college program to be well run, but it is a requirement. Also, the school being willing to accept mediocre to bad seasons year after year shows that the school doesn't care about maintaining the legacy and reputation of Georgetown basketball, one of its flagship programs, which is a disservice to the Thompsons and all of the players who built a program that did things the right way, educated its players and won basketball games. It's also a disservice to all of the people around the program who put in time and effort to make Georgetown basketball better. No one would would say the law school is well run if it started sliding in the law school rankings. Not sure why you wouldn't hold the basketball team to the same standard. Not to mention that Georgetown basketball is an important part of the student and alumni experience and a horrible team that no one wants to talk about or watch makes being a Hoya worse. Look at this talkboard if you'd like an example. Lot more fun when the Hoyas are winning. Also, it's not following in the tradition of cura personalis if none of the players ever develop. But if you think a well run program doesn't do anything to help its players pursue their goals in their chosen field, well, I don't know what to say to you.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 23, 2017 14:16:23 GMT -5
What in the world? I pay thousands of dollars for season tickets. The coach is making millions coaching this team. It IS a business. Do you really not see this? Not at all- we are in two different universes if you see it as a business. We also are in two different universes if you are happier with the experience of being a Hoya fan if we are 30-3 as opposed to 3-30. Do not get me wrong- I will take the 30-3 any day, but I am just as happy and proud both ways. If you see it that way and really are dissatisfied, I think the play is to vote with your feet and stop the financial support. You should not support something voluntarily if you do not like the way it is being run, and I have the utmost respect for that. Yeah, I'm happier when the Hoyas are 30-3 v 3-30. Why aren't you? Why do you care so little about Georgetown as an institution and Georgetown as a basketball program that you don't care if the school's flagship athletic program is well run and successful?
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 18, 2017 18:36:56 GMT -5
I'm very proud of the rich history of this program, and deeply appreciative of John Thompson's singular role in building it. I get that this doesn't exist the way it does without him. But at the same time...it doesn't exist without fans either. And there has to be some balance between upholding the legacy of the man/family that built the program and the thousands of stakeholders among alumni and friends of the University who also play a critical role in maintaining the program. You are right in that there are many elements to any program. There are people like John Thompson's singular role in establishing the program, the administration, alumni, donors, fans, etc. And I agree that you cannot favor one element too strongly over another. That said, not all the elements are weighed evenly. Obviously, donors are a pretty huge influence. But let's not kid ourselves. In the larger scheme of things, most donors to Georgetown overall are donating because of the school's academics and the impact it has had on them. That is not to say there aren't many donors to the athletic program - surely there are - but I am guessing that donations specifically to athletics are a relatively small part of overall fundraising. Now, others on here have stated that the basketball program is largely self-sustaining. I am sure donations are a part of that, but it takes a lot of donations to even come close to the amount we get from Fox Sports 1, for example. The administration surely is important - after all they make the decisions. Rightly, I think John Thompson Jr. should get a large amount of respect and influence given his role in the program's history and his building of the program. Obviously, you don't hand over the reigns and let him do whatever he wants (and I don't think Georgetown has done that fully, at least), but I think it's fair to say that he should be influential. Now, you can argue about how much influence he should have, but the idea of a total break from the Thompson tradition is ill advised and highly misguided. Really, the "thousands of stakeholders among alumni and friends" are really the least important of all the elements, though still very important. You have the die-hards who are going to donate and go to games no matter what. You also have the completely casual fans who will never come to a game unless we are winning and it becomes a cool thing to go to a game. This isn't unique to Georgetown. All sports teams draw better when they win. And then there are the people in the middle who might donate less and go to fewer games when we are bad, yet they still are very interested in the program (and I think much of HoyaTalk falls into this bucket). My point is, for all the angst and criticisms among fans, and the need for a "balance" between fans and everything else, I just don't know how widespread and influential the angst-ridden fans are really going to have. My sense is this group is a lot smaller than it might seem (though extremely vocal). People on Hoyatalk are the diehards. The middle of the road people don't spend time on Hoyatalk. And those people are going to check out at an even higher rate next year. It's going to be two straight losing seasons (and it's not just the schedule, since they couldn't even beat Radford, Arkansas St., etc), and three missed tournaments out of the last four. Why should anyone care about the team if the administration doesn't?
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