TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 28, 2017 14:36:39 GMT -5
Let me tell you a story about Patrick Ewing - I was just reading a page or two back when a female lawyer in my firm came into my office. Rather than talk about business I said, "can you believe people write stuff like "I don't see how his college success or NBA hall of famer status would much impress recruits." At all of 29 years old she said, "Patrick Ewing? He's a Editeding super star!" She did go to UConn*, but still, she has a point. If you are not impressed by Patrick Ewing sitting on your living room couch, no matter how cool you think you are, then I just don't know what to tell you. Why would you even want to play at Big Man U if you have no clue about how the school became Big Man U? * Of course, she also said she thinks Kevin Ollie has a positive impact on recruits due to his pro career. Which just goes to show, regardless of her judgment, the knowledge of these players and their careers is not nearly as limited as folks want to think. She also was probably already in college before the current generation of recruits were born. I'd bet most recruits' parents hadn't even met yet when Patrick Ewing was on the Dream Team twenty-five years ago.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 17, 2017 13:55:09 GMT -5
With Kevin Keatts all but gone who next on the reasonable wish list? Depends on who is available next spring.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 17, 2017 13:49:04 GMT -5
It is a completely accurate assessment of the state of the program. So is missing three of the last four tournaments. So is going 69-62 (32-40 in conference) with only one winning conference record in the past four years. So is going 2-4 in the BET in the past four years and getting only one NCAA win in the past four years. Four years is not an arbitrary endpoint in college basketball. Three of our past four years have been failures, and the last two have been horrific failures. Anyway, it doesn't matter. If they keep him, the next two years seem highly unlikely to come close to reaching that amazing 2015 season in which we finished tied for second in the Big East and went 1-1 in the BET and NCAA. I guess we can always schedule ourselves Esherick style to a winning record (no chance we surpass this year's conference record) and call that a success.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 16, 2017 11:08:09 GMT -5
While I would estimate 85%+ of people on here expect JT3 to be fired, there's really no reason to think that's going to happen given the nature of the university. If JT3 can keep the core team together with no more transfers, I think there's a very high chance he's retained, for better or worse. If he cannot keep the current team together, then I think the university would probably be faced with no choice but to move on. At this point, I think anything can happen, but I don't think people should discount JT3 remaining. I would also add that with the NCAA tournament beginning today, we will be in a position in 3-4 days (or less) where some of the top potential candidates for coaching positions will be out of the tournament and ripe for the picking. If the university is going to move on from JT3, the time to do it is soon. I actually think it is 50/50 at best III is replaced. All signals normally would point to it, but for all the reasons that have been repeated, this is complicated by the Thompson relationship and Georgetown simply does not operate that way. If there is a decision to move on, it really just has to be done a few days prior to the Final Four. From what I have heard, that is when the business meetings typically take place. If they wait that long to fire him, they'll have missed out on candidates, unless they are simultaneously interviewing his replacement. Most of new coaches are hired by the end of March / early April.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 16, 2017 9:19:06 GMT -5
This seems like the most likely outcome. While I agree this is plausible, wouldn't the optics of it be terrible. We are bad news dumping bringing JT3 back? The bad news dump should be firing him although for most it wouldn't be bad news. This would be a much different program if they cared about PR optics.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 15, 2017 17:22:20 GMT -5
Lorenzo Romar is out at Washington. Makes me feel a little better about Georgetown's timing that Washington took as long as they did to make the decision to fire Romar. Of course, his top recruit hadn't decommitted, as far as I know.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 13:24:32 GMT -5
I'm one of those JT3 supporters who have changed their minds as the season progressed (maybe progress is a poor word to use in this context). It is inconceivable that JT3 will voluntarily resign and walk away from a multiyear contract. No criticism from me on this position; none of us are that altruistic. So, assuming that the contract is $3M/year, with three years to run. . .that's a $9M buyout. Maybe you can negotiate a lump sum settlement at a lower number. . .$7M? $7.5M? You can fill in the multi-million dollar amount. Here's my question: from where is that money coming? GU doesn't have that kind of scratch lying around. Donors with that kind of scratch were already targeted as part of the Thompson Center campaign. Do you do a multi-year restructuring payout, such as the Mets did years ago with Bobby Bonilla? That is excessively expensive on a dollar-for-dollar comparison, long term. If you bite the bullet now, and pay JT3 pursuant to the contract terms, you''l be paying $3M per year PLUS the new coach's salary for the next three years. Again, from where is that money coming? I'm not arguing against a coaching change. I feel it is more than merited after the results of the last two seasons. However, as a practical matter, it is difficult to envision a scenario where GU can fund a buyout or double-pay coaches for a few seasons. Why do you assume the buyout is the same as the total remaining value of the contract? Have you ever heard of a buyout that was the same as the total value of the contract?
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 13:16:03 GMT -5
I don't think Bracey chose LA Tech over Georgetown. I don't think he had an offer here.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 12:42:14 GMT -5
The only coach to last more than six years at NC State since Valvano is Herb Sendek. Whoever they hire is unlikely to still be at NC State when all of those coaches turn over. Here are the tenures of coaches that preceded 33 year old Mike Kryzyewski at Duke: Bucky Waters (4 years) Neill McGeachy (1 year) Bill Foster (6 years) And for younger readers who don't know a world before Twitter, the tenures of the coaches that preceded 29 year old John Thompson at Georgetown: Buddy O'Grady (4 years) Buddy Jeannette (4 years) Tommy Nolan (4 years) Tommy O'Keefe (6 years) Jack Magee (6 years) Moral of the story: Find a good young coach and no telling how long he could be there. There's a decent chance that Coach K and John Thompson would have been fired this year had they been hired at NC State instead of Gottfried, since neither of them made the Sweet 16 in their first five years. Coaches notice that stuff when they are deciding what job they want to take, especially considering that they'll have to succeed quickly in an ACC stacked with HOF coaches at blue blood programs.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 12:35:08 GMT -5
At a school that is willing to renew your contract at the Top 10, $3M level (2013), 6 years removed from your only FF and after a couple of legendary flame-outs in the NCAAs??? You're selling the job short. A hungry, driven coach would relish the idea that in 3 years, if successful, he can be a multi-millionaire. Nevermind all of the other advantages that being associated to a school like GU and being at GU/DC, one of the hotbeds of HS-level basketball, has over all those other schools... That's looking at it with homer glasses. A new coach is not going to get anywhere near $3 million. In fact they will get much less since we still have to pay III. Part of the $3 million being paid to III is for the Hoyas and Thompson brandname and history. An outside hire will never have any of that or what the Thompsons and Hoyas meant to alot of people around the nation in the 80s and early nineties. He's not saying the new coach will get $3M, but that the new coach knows he'll have the opportunity to be a top 10 paid coach if he succeeds.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 12:16:21 GMT -5
3. The ACC as a whole is a collection of aging coaches: Krzyzewski, Williams, Boeheim, Pitino, Hamilton, Larranaga, all 65+. One would expect all of these positions to be subject to turnover in the next 5-7 years, even Duke. A good young coach could send State skyward in that conference, especially with the growing basketball underclass (VPI, Clemson, Wake, Tech, Pitt, and BC) that cannot compete against the top tier, much as was the case in the two-tiered Big East. The tiering of the ACC must be on the minds of Syracuse in the Mike Hopkins era. (Fun fact: Number of all-time wins for the Orangemen in the ACC tournament? Zero.) Don't underestimate the ties that bind down there. It's along the lines of the old UNC cheer: "Duke is puke, Wake is fake, but the team I hate is N.C. State!" The only coach to last more than six years at NC State since Valvano is Herb Sendek. Whoever they hire is unlikely to still be at NC State when all of those coaches turn over.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 10:57:25 GMT -5
Why do people think that there are sufficient funds to pay another worthwhile coach? This isn't a new thought, but we're on the hook for three mil each for the next three years. When I see all of this speculation on who's available, etc., etc., it seems to me that III's contract is essentially his job security. A couple of million would be very persuasive in convincing someone like Keatts to coach here under the present conditions, but we don't have it. And who are you going to get for what we do have? I think the assumption is that (1) there is a buyout, and (2) the buyout is not going to be equal to the amount remaining on the contract. Buyouts are never equal to the amount remaining, otherwise, what would be the point? It's better to make three $3 million payments over three years than one $9 million payment now. Even at 1% interest you'd get about $180,000 in interest over the three years as you paid out the $9 million.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 10:27:27 GMT -5
Would you rather be the coach at Missouri, Illinois, NC State, LSU or Georgetown next year? Those are the openings that Georgetown would be competing with right now. Indiana may open up, and if it does, I'll give you that the Indiana job is probably better than Georgetown's (though I can see why you would take Georgetown over Indiana). More High Major Head Coaching jobs will open up after the Final 4! They do every year during the college coaches version of musical chairs. I mean, Calipari or Bill Self could jump to an NBA team or something, but as of now, there really aren't a lot more high major jobs likely to come open this year. Clemson, maybe? Nebraska? All of the jobs at big name programs are pretty much stable. www.coachesdatabase.com/hot-seat-report/www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/23/nc-state-indiana-coaching-carousel
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 9:51:00 GMT -5
Agree Keatts would be an outstanding hire but seriously doubt Georgetown has a legitimate shot. First Keatts will be the bell of the ball when it comes to having his choice of any high major job that opens up. Even with his DMV ties, I doubt he takes the Georgetown job because of all the baggage surrounding the program. You don't want to be the coach that replaces JT3, you want to be the coach that replaces the coach that replaced JT3. Agree about the coach replacing the coach that replaced III. That is why several weeks ago I posted that we would likely get an older retread coach in here who would steer the ship for a few years and either hand it off to a hotshot assistant or a whole new regime. As you say, no high demand coach like Keatts is going to want to walk into this fire. Would you rather be the coach at Missouri, Illinois, NC State, LSU or Georgetown next year? Those are the openings that Georgetown would be competing with right now. Indiana may open up, and if it does, I'll give you that the Indiana job is probably better than Georgetown's (though I can see why you would take Georgetown over Indiana).
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 14, 2017 9:02:49 GMT -5
When you're dealing with the highest paid employee at the university, managed by one of the most visble agents in the business, in a very high profile position within the University, you don't cut corners just so some Twitter warriors can stomp their feet and call for "action", however that's defined. Those that know aren't talking. For now, that's understandable. I agree they should not rush a decision on JT3's future or a new coach hiring just to pacify the message boards or twitter people, but there needs to be some sense of urgency. The program is imploding at this point and saying nothing only makes people assume the worst!! Waiting until after the tournament to hire a new coach, if they move on from JT3, makes some sense, because you should have more successful coaches available once their teams tournament runs are completed, but it is time to say something publicly so the players and possible recruits have a sense what is going to happen. If JT3 is going to resign I would assume there would be a few meetings to negotiate some type of severance package but that should not take more than a week. The announcement needs to come this week. Thursday is probably the day if you want to avoid media scrutiny, since the games will suck up all of the media oxygen. Whichever way they go, JT3 will either need to be out recruiting with a clear show of support, or the administration will need to start interviewing candidates to replace him, many of which will free up no later than Sunday.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2017 15:53:05 GMT -5
Indiana, Kentucky, UNC....all have gone through rebuilds with varying degrees of success. It took Davis, Kelvin Sampson & then Crean at IU. It took Tubby, Gillespie then Calipari at Kentucky. Most of these deals are due to stains on the program however. I am a little bit sick to my stomach over all of this. UNC went to the well with Roy Williams. Kentucky brought in the devil. IU brought in a diet coke sniffing vampire who most probably want fired. I say we go get Jaren Jackson and get him to bring in his son and a truck load of recruits. Your examples are horrible. Tubby never missed the NCAAs at Kentucky and made the Elite 8 two years before he was fired (mainly because the standard at Kentucky is Final Fours). Gillispie missed one tournament and was fired.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2017 12:13:56 GMT -5
It's not much different at all than 03-04. That's kind of the point here. 3) We have serious problems recruiting talented players, both locally and nationally. We've started reaching more for short term fixes (Josh Smith, Rodney Pryor, Jonathon Mulmore) and have done a very poor job of choosing which players to take, as shown by passing on Josh Hart for Stephen Domingo and passing on current CUSA freshman of the year DaQuan Bracey for Jonathan Mulmore and Jagan Mosely. Whittington and Josh Smith had major academic issues, with Whittington getting kicked off the team and Smith not finishing his senior year. Following up on this, with Trey Mourning transferring, the Hoyas now have nine scholarship players for next year, and five (!) for 2018-19. Seems unlikely that the Hoyas will be able to fill those spots without short term fixes like grad transfers or reaching for players that are, at best, long-term projects.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2017 11:16:11 GMT -5
The distinction here is that he probably would not have been fired if not for that quote, and would have been given longer leash and a chance to build out of the mess, like I think JT3 is going to be. JT3 learned not to run his mouth from Esherick. Too bad he didn't learn how to keep his recruits from decommitting.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2017 11:00:30 GMT -5
Like many other current critics, I sat through every painful home game in 2003-2004. The move was about Craig Esherick and the on-court performance. Yes, there were some major conference issues swirling around, but Esherick was fired because the team's performance was similar to what we are seeing now Esherick was fired because he asserted that he'd be Coach for Life. It's amazing that someone that asserts that they were at everything in 2003-2004 can make any argument otherwise. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximate_and_ultimate_causation
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2017 10:36:48 GMT -5
What are the "deep seated problems" with our program in your opinion; and how, if at all, do you distinguish the position the program is in right now from the end of the 2003-4 season? It's not much different at all than 03-04. That's kind of the point here. Let's see here. The deep seated problems include: 1) We have an outdated offense system and have not had a top 25 offense since Greg Monroe left. The last two years we've ranked 66th and 96th in offense in KenPom. JT3 said he was going to change the offense this year, and then went back to the old system as the season went on. This year was his worst offense ever. 2) Our coach has not been able to figure out how to adjust his defense to the new rules. We haven't had a top 30 defense since the rule changes, and we've been ranked 54th, 80th and 91st in defense in 2017, 2016 and 2014. We were ranked 34th in 2015, which is fine, but not a defense to write home about. 3) We have serious problems recruiting talented players, both locally and nationally. We've started reaching more for short term fixes (Josh Smith, Rodney Pryor, Jonathon Mulmore) and have done a very poor job of choosing which players to take, as shown by passing on Josh Hart for Stephen Domingo and passing on current CUSA freshman of the year DaQuan Bracey for Jonathan Mulmore and Jagan Mosely. Whittington and Josh Smith had major academic issues, with Whittington getting kicked off the team and Smith not finishing his senior year. 4) We have lost a lot of inexcusable games in the past four years, including four home losses to mid-majors, a neutral court loss to Northeastern and a home and a BET loss to Depaul. 5) Our players don't seem to develop much anymore, and the ones that do develop seem to regress the next year. DSR and Hayes both had poor senior years. Derrickson and Govan didn't improve much as sophomores. Copeland fell of a cliff (I still don't understand what happened to his jump shot). Tre and Cameron never developed. Josh Smith didn't get serious about conditioning until after he exhausted his eligibilty. Starting with the 2011 class, I can't think of any players, other than Otto Porter, Jabril Trawick and LJ Peak that have improved every year they were at Georgetown. 3 players in five classes. Maybe I'm missing 1 or 2 players there, but still. 6) And, quite simply, we've lost a lot of games in the past four years. We've had losing records the past two years and are 69-62 in the past four years. We are 32-40 in conference, with only one winning conference record in the past four years. We have gone 2-4 in the BET in the past four years and have one NCAA win.
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