Hoyas vs. Vandy Regional Semis Pre-Game Discussion

[HoyaChris]

cam said:

I just had an aneurysm trying to get through all of the statistical analysis above.

Seriously, does anyone have a similar analysis of our defense? I don't, but to my (admittedly untrained) eye, our defense is notably better now than it was at the beginning of the season.

And....if that's the case, does our offensive "slump" matter as much?

Your untrained eye is better than you think. In late December, Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency had us in the 80s or so nationally. Going into the Garden we were in the low 30s. Now we are #16. While Pomeroy is weighted somewhat to more recent performances, our peformance in recent weeks must be at a very high level to result in such a significant measure of improvement.

[PopeJohn2]

our defensive improvement is due to the fact that our guards pick up their guards in transition better and that we no longer employ the trap defense that resulted in too many open 3s while generating no turnovers.

[PopeJohn2]

good scouting report of vandy

vanderbilt.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=652331

[kchoya]

From Gottlieb on ESPN.com:

Derrick Byars (Vanderbilt) vs. Jeff Green (Georgetown)
NBA execs continue to profess their complete adoration for multidimensional Green, who might or might not enter the draft at the end of this season, but Byars quietly has gone about destroying almost every ranked team Vandy has faced. Check out these stats: Vandy has six wins against opponents that were ranked when the Commodores played them -- Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Florida and Washington State -- and Byars went for 25, 15, 23, 18 (with 10 boards), 24 and 27 points, respectively, in those matchups. Oh yeah, Byars also is a beast on defense, and the Virginia transfer will look at this game -- and the time he spends guarding Green -- as his coming-out party in the New York area.

Yeah, but what about the games they lost to ranked teams, like when he went for 14 and 2 against Georgetown.

[JPM32]

Interesting stat:

Since 1998, teams favored by 7+ points in the Sweet 16 round are 22-1.

Georgetown is listed as a 7.5 point favorite tomorrow night.

[Boz]

If Byars truly looks at this game as "his coming out party" as the idiot suggests, then I have no doubt Georgetown will win.

Unfortunately, I don't think Byars thinks that way or that selfishly, so I expect a very tough game.

Gottlieb continues to impress with his ability to sound more and more moronic each time out.

Jackass.

[ExcitableBoy]

kchoya said:

From Gottlieb on ESPN.com:

Derrick Byars (Vanderbilt) vs. Jeff Green (Georgetown)
NBA execs continue to profess their complete adoration for multidimensional Green, who might or might not enter the draft at the end of this season, but Byars quietly has gone about destroying almost every ranked team Vandy has faced. Check out these stats: Vandy has six wins against opponents that were ranked when the Commodores played them -- Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Florida and Washington State -- and Byars went for 25, 15, 23, 18 (with 10 boards), 24 and 27 points, respectively, in those matchups. Oh yeah, Byars also is a beast on defense, and the Virginia transfer will look at this game -- and the time he spends guarding Green -- as his coming-out party in the New York area.

Yeah, but what about the games they lost to ranked teams, like when he went for 14 and 2 against Georgetown.

Despite his best efforts, I think Gottlied might be onto something here... It looks like when Vanderbilt's best player has good games, the team ALSO does well. Contrast this to when he does poorly and the team also does poorly.

[Sarcasm] This is a truly unique perspective that other analysts should pursue in greater depth. I now understand why ESPN pays for his thorough analysis and allows us to bask in his infinite wisdom two-three times per day. [/Sarcasm]

[bubbrubbhoya]

saxifrage said:

So, here's the effective field-goal rate since Georgetown began winning consistently:

Jan 17 Rutgers 61.1
Jan 19 Seton Hall 61.8
Jan 24 DePaul 62.2
Jan 27 Cincinnati 58.5
Feb 1 St. John's 65.2
Feb 7 Louisville 63.0
Feb 10 Marquette 52.7
Feb 12 West Virginia 63.3
Feb 17 Villanova 50.0
Feb 21 Cincinnati 62.5
Feb 24 Pittsburgh 51.3
Feb 26 Syracuse (L) 35.1
Mar 3 Connecticut 45.4
Mar 8 Villanova 49.1
Mar 9 Notre Dame 56.8
Mar 10 Pittsburgh 58.0
Mar 15 Belmont 61.3
Mar 17 Boston College 46.1

JB

At the risk of Editeding off the stat freaks, I've got a pretty simple explanation for this trend, and it has nothing to do with the Hoyas themselves. Look at the teams including and before Cinci. With one exception, they are all terrible teams, and I'm including what was a struggling Louisville squad. The one team that we had a bad rating against? Marquette, who were riding their best streak of the year (a streak that we, and the flu, ruthless crushed, and they never recovered...haha!). After Cinci, all of the teams were either good or playing for their tournament lives...I'd call UConn an aberration here. Belmont? Bad team, so our offense was once again hotter than misanthropejohn2's sister in the middle of Death Valley...oh yeah! Then we played a tough zone against the Traitors. I'd like to see an intra-game breakdown of Pomeroy's numbers, because my bet is that our rating skyrocketed in the last 7 minutes...something that we can hopefully do against zones for the rest of the tourney.

The lesson of it all, though, is what Bilas has been pointing out every chance he gets: our defense is probably the biggest reason for our success, because we lock it down better than other good teams. Keep it up Hoyas, and BEAT VANDY!!!

[PopeJohn2]

not sure what you said and im not sure you know either. the most intelligent thing you said was the reference to my sister. but i think you are saying that our drop off in shooting % can be explained by the strength of our opponent. thats simply not right. you need look no further than sapp whos 3pfg% was over 40% prior to 2/21 and he is now 1-26 (excluding belmont) since. thats a whopping 4%. similar, tho thankfully not as drastic, declines can be seen in green and summers. and your explanation regarding having to face "tough zone" is ackbasswards as its easier to shoot 3s against zones as you get more open looks. if we shot well, teams would stop playing zone against us. then we could backdoor them to death. if you noticed, the number of backdoor buckets has fallen dramatically over the season as teams have adjusted. if anything, you could say we shoot 3s better vs man than we do versus zone. maybe it has something to do with the rythm of shooting against man that makes us better shooters.

the stats i believe combine 2pfg% and 3pfg%. the concern is with perimeter shooting and not scoring in the paint. as a result these stats understate the dropoff as we have been scoring consistently in the paint.

[bubbrubbhoya]

Did I not say that I'd Edited off stat guys? And even after the compliment I paid your sister, PJ2...not that thanks I expected.

[PopeJohn2]

when you called me misanthrope i assume it was a sarcastic dig. my bad. apologies. peace.

[godores2005]

marshallwhite said:

Vandy has no real fans. They are all more like "casual observers."

What a EDITED. I know I'm a guest here, but you all let EDITED post here? I'd expect this from a Tennessee fan but not Georgetown.

MOD NOTE: good humored interchange is fine, name calling and using other keyboard characters to slip objectionable language past the moderators is not.

[PopeJohn2]

godores2005 said:

marshallwhite said:

Vandy has no real fans. They are all more like "casual observers."

What a EDITED . I know I'm a guest here, but you all let EDITED post here? I'd expect this from a Tennessee fan but not Georgetown.

unfortunately there is that element here. some of us try to stamp it out but we arent winning over minds. try not to take it personally. perhaps the mods can implement a new rule and delete posts that detract from the image of gu.

[bubbrubbhoya]

popejohn2 said:

godores2005 said:

What a EDITED . I know I'm a guest here, but you all let EDITED post here? I'd expect this from a Tennessee fan but not Georgetown.

unfortunately there is that element here. some of us try to stamp it out but we arent winning over minds. try not to take it personally. perhaps the mods can implement a new rule and delete posts that detract from the image of gu.

Not true. This was the first post I've seen that has dissed Vandy fans. GoDores, go and check out the various threads started by Vandy fans, and you'll see what the majority of HT posters think of Vandy fans. But seriously, the diss wasn't exactly as offensive as you make it out to be...run of the mill trash talk, as I see it.

[miracles87]

Whew, only one more restless night 'til Vandy. Must say, I am feeling pretty good about our chances. On the one hand, no matter how much Vandy has improved, they simply don't have the interior to stop us, not to mention how hard it is to see Jeff playing poorly for two straight games. On the other hand, watching the Vols go postal on the Bucks, well, obviously, Vandy can really freaking shoot as well. They will get their shot.

This is gonna be fun.

[vcjack]

Hopefully the basketball gods have gotten the "shoot the lights out" all out for the first half of the tOSU-Tenn game.

[ExcitableBoy]

popejohn2 said:

not sure what you said and im not sure you know either. the most intelligent thing you said was the reference to my sister. but i think you are saying that our drop off in shooting % can be explained by the strength of our opponent. thats simply not right. you need look no further than sapp whos 3pfg% was over 40% prior to 2/21 and he is now 1-26 (excluding belmont) since. thats a whopping 4%. similar, tho thankfully not as drastic, declines can be seen in green and summers. and your explanation regarding having to face "tough zone" is ackbasswards as its easier to shoot 3s against zones as you get more open looks. if we shot well, teams would stop playing zone against us. then we could backdoor them to death. if you noticed, the number of backdoor buckets has fallen dramatically over the season as teams have adjusted. if anything, you could say we shoot 3s better vs man than we do versus zone. maybe it has something to do with the rythm of shooting against man that makes us better shooters.

the stats i believe combine 2pfg% and 3pfg%. the concern is with perimeter shooting and not scoring in the paint. as a result these stats understate the dropoff as we have been scoring consistently in the paint.

I mean if you're going to throw a fit and fall in it, at least use more than just one selective stat. Yes, Jessie Sapp has only his 4% of his 26 3pt attempts over 7 of the last 8 games (an average of less than 4 shots per game, mind you). But, if you include Belmont and exclude Syracuse, he is shooting 16% over 7 of his last 8 games, still well below 40% but a far cry from 4%.

All BubbRubb was saying is that Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Villanova, Notre Dame, Pitt, Belmont, & BC are, as a whole, far better teams than Rutgers, Seton Hall, DePaul, Cincy, St John's, Louisville, Marquette, & Villanova. Any argument there?

[1984alloveragain]

Villanova is better than Villanova?

[TBird41]

I mean, all the big wins and stuff are nice, but really, my favorite part about the last three years might be Jeff and Tyler's trip to the Alabama Rainmaker's Alabama Farm:

""He had this one scary cow that would just stare at me and Tyler," Green said. "It had a broken horn that was just dangling. That kind of freaked me out a little bit.""



Which leads me to my sign idea:

Jeff Green Fears One Thing:

And a Commodore is no Cow

[BubbleVisionBiff]

Apologize for the clutter if this was posted a couple of weeks ago, but I just wanted to remind everyone of what happens when we play a good team.



And if the complier of this is on the Board, you are a genius. The JWall sound effects are excellent.