Latest Lunardi

[casualhoya]

Loss to Cuse knocks us down to a #3 seed v Wright State in Winston-Salem. Interesting potential 2nd round matchup...


Winston-Salem
(6) Maryland (11) WINTHROP

(3) GEORGETOWN (14) WRIGHT ST / Horizon

[GULaw]

In the discussion of yesterday's bracketology, I suggested that the committee might try to make that second round matchup happen. The committee is always trying to set up interesting matchups in the 2nd round and the sweet 16.

[Deleted]

casualhoya said:

Loss to Cuse knocks us down to a #3 seed v Wright State in Winston-Salem. Interesting potential 2nd round matchup...


Winston-Salem
(6) Maryland (11) WINTHROP

(3) GEORGETOWN (14) WRIGHT ST / Horizon

Indeed. Winthrop is sneaky good.

[TrueHoyaBlue]

that exact matchup wouldn't happen because MCP already played winthrop this season, but I'd love the opportunity to face the Fighting Sweaty Garys.

[Air Jordan]

The good thing about that is we are in the East bracket

[EasyEd]

Lunardi's location for games has no effect on what the NCAA will do.

[Coast2CoastHoya]

Ditto. I would love to see them in the Sweet 16 and take revenge for what the Lonnie Baxter and Juan Dixon team did to the Sweetney/ Braswell team back at the Anaheim Pond in 2001.

Winthrop as an 11 could deliver the 6/11 upset of the tourney. Or the 5/12. That team is tricky and my guess is most other teams/coaches haven't seen them play much if it all this season.

[PDRHoya99]

I know we all bashed the NCAA exercise where they used jounalists to create a mock bracket (as I recall the hoyas barely made the field at a 10 seed). However, if one thing came out of that loud and clear it was that there just isn't time for these kind of things to be done intentionally. Lunardi (as a committee of one) probably thinks he's cute throwing them into the mix, but in reality I'm guessing there is far less thought put into it. We may end up playing Maryland in the round of 32, or florida in the sweet 16/elite 8, but i think it has far more to do with coincidence than actual intention.

[ExcitableBoy]

hoyagsb99 said:

I know we all bashed the NCAA exercise where they used jounalists to create a mock bracket (as I recall the hoyas barely made the field at a 10 seed). However, if one thing came out of that loud and clear it was that there just isn't time for these kind of things to be done intentionally. Lunardi (as a committee of one) probably thinks he's cute throwing them into the mix, but in reality I'm guessing there is far less thought put into it. We may end up playing Maryland in the round of 32, or florida in the sweet 16/elite 8, but i think it has far more to do with coincidence than actual intention.

I agree. If 63 (ok, 64, but who cares about the play-in game) teams have to be eliminated, there are plenty of chances for the gods of fortune to deliver games with great storylines. When you also consider the fact that these 65 teams are the cream of the ncaa crop and account for most every exciting rematch, intruiging storyline, & relevant rivalry, good things are bound to happen.

[mikeylikesit]

man, this whole memphis thing seems a little ridiculous to me. so we win 11 (ELEVEN!) in a row in a major conference and we get tripped up on the road against our rival in an extremely hostile environment two days after our biggest win of the season on SENIOR NIGHT and now all of a sudden memphis is a 2 seed? for doing what, exactly? if lunardi really thinks that memphis deserves to be ahead of us just because we lost last night, that's utterly ridiculous. memphis plays in one of the absolute worst conferences in america (yes, C-USA may have greater name recognition because of memphis and the teams that used to be in it, but there are a LOT of mid-major conferences that are better than it)...and they only have ONE rpi top 50 win. i mean, at least gonzaga realized what kind of conference they were in and gave themselves a shot to beat some really quality teams.

[paranoya]

Give memphis credit, they tried to make a tough schedule but a lot of the teams just happen to be down like Tenn, KY, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Cincy, etc. Not saying the CUSA isnt garbage bc it is, but at least memphis attempted to make a tough schedule unlike Nevada who is a complete joke.

[VictorSkyPage]

paranoya said:

Give memphis credit, they tried to make a tough schedule but a lot of the teams just happen to be down like Tenn, KY, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Cincy, etc. Not saying the CUSA isnt garbage bc it is, but at least memphis attempted to make a tough schedule unlike Nevada who is a complete joke.

those teams were still not supposed to be much this year..

3/4 years ago, thats tough OOC


nevada is definitely a disgrace though

[mikeylikesit]

now, admittedly, i'm not a fan of the RPI much at all. i don't think it takes enough factors into consideration for all the emphasis that is placed upon it, but i think there is an interesting comparison between memphis and winthrop. memphis has 1 top 50 win, with its losses coming to tenn, ga. tech, and zona. winthrop, on the other hand, has 2 top 50 wins (missouri state & old dominion) and its 4 losses come to unc, maryland, wisconsin, and texas a&m (and they played exceptionally well against unc and wisco). both are undefeated in their conference, but memphis has the better rpi (most likely because rpi takes into account the winning percentages of your opponents' opponents, and i bet C-USA teams have many more opportunities to face better out-of-conference competition than big south teams). now don't get me wrong, i still think memphis has a better resume than winthrop, but it does seem a little ridiculous that memphis (25-3, 14-0) is a TWO seed, while winthrop (21-4, 14-0) is an ELEVEN seed. just something to think about.

[paranoya]

mikeylikesit said:

now, admittedly, i'm not a fan of the RPI much at all. i don't think it takes enough factors into consideration for all the emphasis that is placed upon it, but i think there is an interesting comparison between memphis and winthrop. memphis has 1 top 50 win, with its losses coming to tenn, ga. tech, and zona. winthrop, on the other hand, has 2 top 50 wins (missouri state & old dominion) and its 4 losses come to unc, maryland, wisconsin, and texas a&m (and they played exceptionally well against unc and wisco). both are undefeated in their conference, but memphis has the better rpi (most likely because rpi takes into account the winning percentages of your opponents' opponents, and i bet C-USA teams have many more opportunities to face better out-of-conference competition than big south teams). now don't get me wrong, i still think memphis has a better resume than winthrop, but it does seem a little ridiculous that memphis (25-3, 14-0) is a TWO seed, while winthrop (21-4, 14-0) is an ELEVEN seed. just something to think about.

Great point, I have never thought about it that way. I think it also has to do with the fact we get to see memphis a few times a year on TV while probably not too many of us have seen winthrop play.

[VictorSkyPage]

mikeylikesit said:

now, admittedly, i'm not a fan of the RPI much at all. i don't think it takes enough factors into consideration for all the emphasis that is placed upon it, but i think there is an interesting comparison between memphis and winthrop. memphis has 1 top 50 win, with its losses coming to tenn, ga. tech, and zona. winthrop, on the other hand, has 2 top 50 wins (missouri state & old dominion) and its 4 losses come to unc, maryland, wisconsin, and texas a&m (and they played exceptionally well against unc and wisco). both are undefeated in their conference, but memphis has the better rpi (most likely because rpi takes into account the winning percentages of your opponents' opponents, and i bet C-USA teams have many more opportunities to face better out-of-conference competition than big south teams). now don't get me wrong, i still think memphis has a better resume than winthrop, but it does seem a little ridiculous that memphis (25-3, 14-0) is a TWO seed, while winthrop (21-4, 14-0) is an ELEVEN seed. just something to think about.

I knew Winthrop was a good team, but I had never broken it down like this between them and Memphis (a team I don't think is very good at all); this is an extremely interesting tidbit.

Clearly, a lot of emphasis is put on the idea that C-USA is hands down a better conference than the Big South, but that's not a forgone conclusion anymore. I bet the seeding pundits will have a hard time seeing this and changing traditional conference thinking; and because Winthrop isn't 30-2, it will be tough for them to get any seed higher than 9. I never thought to compare the two teams and after seeing how similar they are; it really is nothing less than ridiculous that Memphis is in the running for a two and Winthrop is likely going to be receiving a double-digit seed...

wow... even if C-USA is better than the Big South (which is arguable).. the disparity is certainly not great enough to justify this

[Elvado]

2 or 3 is really of no great import.

If from holds 2 plays 3 in the Sweet 16, anyway. the only difference will be uniform color.

Our road/neutral record indicates we do okay in either color, so I wouldn't wig out over 2 vs 3.

We play well and we can beat anyone.

[mikeylikesit]

right, i just want to clarify that i don't think C-USA is worse than the big south this year. c-usa still probably has an edge, but it's certainly much closer than it's ever been (if you look at the overall records of c-usa teams, only memphis and ucf don't have double digit losses, and most teams in the conference are hovering around the .500 mark). plus, winthrop has done just as much to prove itself out-of-conference as memphis has and they've both taken care of business in every game they were supposed to win. the disparity between seeds is just far too large for teams with such staggering similarities.

[GIGAFAN99]

mikeylikesit said:

now, admittedly, i'm not a fan of the RPI much at all. i don't think it takes enough factors into consideration for all the emphasis that is placed upon it, but i think there is an interesting comparison between memphis and winthrop. memphis has 1 top 50 win, with its losses coming to tenn, ga. tech, and zona. winthrop, on the other hand, has 2 top 50 wins (missouri state & old dominion) and its 4 losses come to unc, maryland, wisconsin, and texas a&m (and they played exceptionally well against unc and wisco). both are undefeated in their conference, but memphis has the better rpi (most likely because rpi takes into account the winning percentages of your opponents' opponents, and i bet C-USA teams have many more opportunities to face better out-of-conference competition than big south teams). now don't get me wrong, i still think memphis has a better resume than winthrop, but it does seem a little ridiculous that memphis (25-3, 14-0) is a TWO seed, while winthrop (21-4, 14-0) is an ELEVEN seed. just something to think about.

I made this point earlier and the reason is simple: it is very difficult for computer models to capture information about teams when there is a "breaking point" where talent takes over and every game is essentially a guaranteed "W."

A more compelling case might be Illinois.

200+ records: 4-0 Illinois, 3-0 Memphis
101+ records: 11-0 Illinois, 17-0 Memphis
51+ records: 3-1 Illinois, 4-1 Memphis

So the information I have tells me that Illinois and Memphis can pretty much beat 100+ teams all the time and 50+ teams most of the time.

BUT

Illinois is 3-8 Top 50 and Memphis is 1-2.

So what's the result? Illinois is #31 and a bubble team. Memphis is being projected as a top 3 seed. This is exactly the situation the RPI wants to avoid. But here it is. Memphis has been rewarded for scheduling 6 more 101+ teams (which they beat and Illinois by all indications could beat as well). Illinois is being punished for a tougher schedule (#25 versus #71) because it's proving it's not very good against the top 50. Memphis isn't either (1-2 is nothing to shout about) but they've maintained their ranking and hefty win percentage by feasting on teams that Illinois could have beaten and possibly avoiding losses which would deflate their win percentage.

So should Memphis get a #3 seed because we're not totally sure if they're as good (bad) as Illinois? Rewarding a team for avoiding losses and thereby avoiding giving the committee information is a dangerous precedent in my mind.

[redskins12820]

as long as we have a 3 seed or better we're ready to go. Just avoid dropping to a 4 and I like our position

[VictorSkyPage]

redskins12820 said:

as long as we have a 3 seed or better we're ready to go. Just avoid dropping to a 4 and I like our position

at the lowest, a 3 seed will be ours