Efficiency Graphs

[shakyd]

A Kansas blogger has posted graphs based on KenPom’s efficiency ratings of the top 11 teams. (Linked on KenPom’s website today.) As you can see, the results for the Hoyas are pretty impressive, particularly with respect to our improvement on offense.

phogblog.com/2007/02/22/efficiency-snapshots/

As an aside, as a long time Hoya fan and a Hoya alum, I wanted to thank the administrators and posters on this Board. Although I seldom post, I am a dedicated/obsessed reader. It's great to know there are so many other fans out there who care as much as I do about Hoya Hoops.

Hoping we can continue this amazing run.

Hoya Saxa!

[CO_Hoya]

Images (graphs) not showing up for me.

Also, look here for more detailed analysis of Hoya efficiency.

[edstimes]

shakyd said:

A Kansas blogger has posted graphs based on KenPom’s efficiency ratings of the top 11 teams. (Linked on KenPom’s website today.) As you can see, the results for the Hoyas are pretty impressive, particularly with respect to our improvement on offense.

phogblog.com/2007/02/22/efficiency-snapshots/

As an aside, as a long time Hoya fan and a Hoya alum, I wanted to thank the administrators and posters on this Board. Although I seldom post, I am a dedicated/obsessed reader. It's great to know there are so many other fans out there who care as much as I do about Hoya Hoops.

Hoping we can continue this amazing run.

Hoya Saxa!

Creative, unique post. May be considered for post of the year honors **

[hoyasexy]

I'm no mathematician, but these graphs seem to indicate that our offense and our defense are the best in the nation, perhaps by far. What confuses me is the pythagorean analysis in the third graph. Is this telling me that only UNC and Kansas players know more about triangles than our Hoyas?

[bubbrubbhoya]

This is pretty cool...it's nice to see the Hoya Blue line streaking above all the rest in both categories. I don't quite understand the last graph though...what is this Pythagorean rating of which he speaks? I wasn't aware that Pythagoras was a basketball analyst as well. My one bone with the post is his claim that Georgetown's defensive efficiency will falter in the next few weeks...he's "betting" on this. He gives no rationale, so we're left believing that he thinks that since everyone else fell from their highest defensive level, then so will the Hoyas. What he doesn't mention, though, is that this is a completely different Hoyas team from the one we saw 12 games ago (at/near our defensive low), and this team shows no signs of reverting to that team. I say GO HOYAS, keep setting the bar high!

[SFHoya99]

The Pythagorean Winning % started in baseball. Using runs scored and runs against, a formula very similar to the pythagorean formula (square root of the sum of squares) yields a very accurate expected winning %.

It doesn't sound revolutionary -- the idea that you can estimate winning % based on runs scored and runs allowed -- but it is. It debunks the idea that teams play to the score and implies that a team that blows out other teams is better than a team that "wins the close ones."

I don't know how well it works for basketball -- I assume Pomeroy has done his work. I believe he said that the exponential is very high (expected given that Margin of Victory in basketball is much larger than baseball).

So Pomeroy adjust points scored and points allowed for competition and pace, then plugs it into a formula that generates an expected winning %.

In baseball, teams will tend to perform to their expected winning % more than their current winning % in the future. E.g. a team that is 2-8 with a Pythagorean winning % of .800 will more likely win 8 of their next 10 than go anywhere near 2-8 again.

[ExcitableBoy]

bubbrubbhoya said:

This is pretty cool...it's nice to see the Hoya Blue line streaking above all the rest in both categories. I don't quite understand the last graph though...what is this Pythagorean rating of which he speaks? I wasn't aware that Pythagoras was a basketball analyst as well. My one bone with the post is his claim that Georgetown's defensive efficiency will falter in the next few weeks...he's "betting" on this. He gives no rationale, so we're left believing that he thinks that since everyone else fell from their highest defensive level, then so will the Hoyas. What he doesn't mention, though, is that this is a completely different Hoyas team from the one we saw 12 games ago (at/near our defensive low), and this team shows no signs of reverting to that team. I say GO HOYAS, keep setting the bar high!

Little known mathematical fact, Pythagoras WAS a basketball fan.

Also, I'm guessing that the writer is a) somewhat biased against non-KU programs and b) using the time-tested formula that says the #1 ranked team in any given category will either remain ranked #1 or 'falter'.

What s/he does not take into account, is that Jon Wallace CAN divide by zero so, for this team, the #1 ranking is no limit. I think we can easily get to #0 or beyond.

[seaweed]

Correct me please - I read the Deffensive Efficieny stat as not particularly favorable for us. Our line is 'soaring above the others' but that means teams are scoring more against us, no? I don't think this is a fair indicator of how well our D actually plays, but we have given up a lot of high percentage shooting nights and I am not shocked that we allow a lot of points per posession.

The offensive stats on the other side are off the chart - I like that! I like that a lot!

don't care much about the pythagorean thing, seems to objective in a subjective world

[SFHoya99]

seaweed said:

Correct me please - I read the Deffensive Efficieny stat as not particularly favorable for us. Our line is 'soaring above the others' but that means teams are scoring more against us, no? I don't think this is a fair indicator of how well our D actually plays, but we have given up a lot of high percentage shooting nights and I am not shocked that we allow a lot of points per posession.

Nope, you read it right. We're a good defensive team. Top 40 in the country, at least, if not better.

But the other top 10 teams are better and more importantly, were much better for most of the season. Efficiencies are mostly cumulative stats (though I think Pomeroy does some weighting for recent play) and a team like UCLA has been great all season.

The offensive stats on the other side are off the chart - I like that! I like that a lot!

Our offense is good enough to offset that our defense might not be in exactly the same class.

don't care much about the pythagorean thing, seems to objective in a subjective world

Yeah.

[HoyaChris]

bubbrubbhoya said:

This is pretty cool...it's nice to see the Hoya Blue line streaking above all the rest in both categories. I don't quite understand the last graph though...what is this Pythagorean rating of which he speaks? I wasn't aware that Pythagoras was a basketball analyst as well. My one bone with the post is his claim that Georgetown's defensive efficiency will falter in the next few weeks...he's "betting" on this. He gives no rationale, so we're left believing that he thinks that since everyone else fell from their highest defensive level, then so will the Hoyas. What he doesn't mention, though, is that this is a completely different Hoyas team from the one we saw 12 games ago (at/near our defensive low), and this team shows no signs of reverting to that team. I say GO HOYAS, keep setting the bar high!

Our defense is very good, but worse (statistically) than these other teams.

I believe that when he refers to us faltering, he meant to say that our offense (not Defense) would come back to earth.

[bubbrubbhoya]

hoyachris said:

I believe that when he refers to us faltering, he meant to say that our offense (not Defense) would come back to earth.

Not to nitpick, but I would gladly debate you on this one.

And a happy birthday to the excitableboy. Warren Zevon would be proud!

[HoyaChris]

[Thea author=bubbrubbhoya board=general thread=1172243505 post=1172251684]

hoyachris said:

I believe that when he refers to us faltering, he meant to say that our offense (not Defense) would come back to earth.

Not to nitpick, but I would gladly debate you on this one.

And a happy birthday to the excitableboy. Warren Zevon would be proud![/quote]

What are we debating, my interpretation? Here is the quote from the article

"For a while North Carolina (their defense) seemed to be quite a bit better than everyone else, but they’ve fallen back to only “great.” (I’m betting the same thing happens with Georgetown’s defense over the next few weeks.)"

There are two graphs shown. In one of he graphs, our offense is blowing away the world. In the other, we have the worst defense of the listed teams - not bad, just not superior to this group. Our defense can't fall back to this group by getting better. Our offense could, conceivably, fall back to closer to parity with the rest of this elite group.

Now if what you are suggesting is that our offense will remain superior, I would agree with you, but that is not what I said or implied.

[prhoya]

Pythagoras will be on College Gamenight tonight to explain his theory.

[PopeJohn2]

thanks for the post. i certainly hope we can figure out our defense from here on out. just too many wide open jumpers and fouling. either that or maybe something about us makes the other team morph into sharpshooters. perhaps jtiii can experiment down the stretch with a new approach to defense.

[lichoya68]

I THINK I SAID IT AAFTEER THE MARQUETTE GAME OUR D REMINDS ME OF THE EIGHTIES D NOT ONE THREE ONE BUT GREAT SWITCHING FOLKS AND WE DO LOSE SOME THREES SOMETIMES BUT IN MONEY TIME OUR D IS PRETTY D GOOD GO HOAYS D PITT ESPECIALLY THE THREES BEAT PITT ROY MAD MAD MAD ;D

[PopeJohn2]

just watched the first half of the cinncy game on my dvr. cinncy opened up 5-5 from 3 and i must say it was due largely to bad defense. i got to say our defense needs LOTS of work. pronto. at least our defense in the first 10 minutes of the game. there were plenty of missed assignments, failures to switch. our guys seem to get caught out of position and then they have to scramble, chase people around, then desperately lunge at an open shooter as he is releasing his shot...general disarray. plenty of hustle and activity, just not very effective. sometimes it we try to double team and trap a ball handler when hes is not in a place where he can be trapped by 2 guys. this leads to a pass to an open man for a 3. we even once had 3 guys standing at the top of the key awaiting a guard dribbling up court. when he got to the wall of hoyas, he simply passed it out to the wing for an open 3.

i actually think our guys are playing too aggressively on d in the first 10 minutes. its like at the beginning of games they got too much energy and are overplaying. may explain why louisville, cinnc (2x) and sju all shot so well at the beginning of the game and then faded. we may play better d when we are tired. they got to take it down a notch just play tight disciplined man. they got to think of themselves pasted to the chest of their mark.

my $0.02.