13 Double Digit Wins

[Locker]

That's what we have now. We don't have a single win that could remotely be characterized as lucky.

Pomeroy ranks us #289 in the nation in luck.

www.kenpom.com/rate.php

For those who doubt the utility of analyzing luck to help predict future performance, check out Pomeroy's preseason article on ESPN (insider only, unfortunately), in which he singles out four teams that were statistically unlucky last season and which he predicted would outperform expectations this year: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Virginia Tech.

insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/columns/story?id=2661325

I expect we'll surprise a lot of people the rest of the way, but I doubt Pomeroy will be one of them.

[ExcitableBoy]

If we're not ranked highly in luck, does that make us "unlucky" or is that a different metric?

[SFHoya99]

It makes us "unlucky." Luck is a bad term -- what it really means it that our W-L record is worse than you'd expect given our Points Scored and Points Allowed.

I wouldn't say we are "unlucky." I'd say our schedule is not structured well to reveal how good we are. The only games we've lost we should have won is ODU (early) and Nova. I think we'll win a game or two we "shouldn't", like at Nova, Pitt at home, etc. before the end of the season.

Luck here is basically saying that close wins and losses aren't predictive. That is generally true -- if you lose on a last second half court shot, are you really significantly worse than your opponent? Does that mean you'll lose next time? But I think Hoyas (and Irish fans) know you can also have some real end of game difficulties beyond "the shot won't fall." We don't have a go-to guy on this team and so we just might not be so good at close games this year.

[Locker]

I don't doubt that there is an element of skill that determines how well teams do in close games. But there is also an element of luck. Figuring out what percentage to attribute to each is the hard part. The question is similar to the debate (engaged by Rob Neyer and others) over whether clutch hitters exist in baseball.

As for the Hoyas, my prediction is that they will not lose their next four games which are decided by single digit scoring margins.

[SFHoya99]

We're also 310th in the D-I in FT % Defense. I know some of that is possibly that we aren't fast-paced, people are puffing as hard, etc., but we weren't nearly that bad last year.

[Boz]

sfhoya99 said:

We're also 310th in the D-I in FT % Defense. I know some of that is possibly that we aren't fast-paced, people are puffing as hard, etc., but we weren't nearly that bad last year.

This is the greatest statistic I have ever seen in my life.

WE MUST IMPROVE OUR FREE THROW DEFENSE, PEOPLE!!!

Personally, I blame the student sections.....buncha' slackers!!

;D

[HoyaFanNY]

ft% defense?? i can't take anyone seriously that lists ft% defense as an actual statistic. pomeroy is the raymond babbitt of college hoops.

[TrueHoyaBlue]

Actually, he lists opponents' ft %, as do any collection of statistics that include "for" and "against"

[HoyaSinceBirth]

wait explain to me free throw defense does he jsut mean that our opponents are making a high percentage of their shots at the line/ or is it a serious statistic like that their getting to the line more.

[CO_Hoya]

hoyasincebirth said:

wait explain to me free throw defense does he jsut mean that our opponents are making a high percentage of their shots at the line/ or is it a serious statistic like that their getting to the line more.

Opponent FT% (as mentioned by SFHoya) is likely just a luck statistic (slow pace effect noted).

Pomeroy does consider FT defense, measured as an opponent's FT attempts per FG attempt. FT offense is measured as FT made per FG attempt. The difference between these last 2 stats is because a team can control how many FTs it makes, but only how many FTs the opponent takes.

[SFHoya99]

hoyasincebirth said:

wait explain to me free throw defense does he jsut mean that our opponents are making a high percentage of their shots at the line/ or is it a serious statistic like that their getting to the line more.

Pomeroy does both stats. I posted the % our opponents make at the line in this thread simply because it is a perfect example of being unlucky.

People have shot FTs really well against us, and that hasn't helped in our losses:

ODU 18-24 (75.0%) -- Season 69.4% 1-2 extra points

Oregon 10-19 (52.6%) -- Season 74.3%

Duke 21-25 (84.0%) -- Season 68.8% 4 extra points

Villanova 13-17 (76.5%) -- Season 78.3%

Pitt 15-19 (78.9%) -- Season 67.2% 2-3 extra points

I expected there to be a bigger difference, but Nova really is that good from the line. Otherwise, I'd say both Duke and Pitt could have turned out differently, though not necessarily as wins.

Either way, on a whole, we've either faced a ton of great FT shooting teams or been a bit unlucky this year.

[RockawayHoya]

For someone with a little time (or with the knowledge of a website that calculates it that I haven't come across yet),what is our FT% defense at home compared to our FT% defense on the road, and how does the comparison between those numbers look between how those teams shoot for the season from the line? I want to find out if our student section is doing their job . Hey, we caused Redick to miss twice last year with our A game, so you gotta bring it every night!

[bmartin]

Hoyas passed Air Force over the weekend into 2nd in fg%:

NCAA® Men's Basketball
Division I
Field-Goal Percentage

Through Games 01/21/2007
Rank Name GM W-L FGM FGA FG%
1 Florida 19 17-2 588 1074 54.7
2 Georgetown 18 13-5 447 857 52.2
3 Air Force 20 18-2 487 939 51.9

Through Games 01/18/2007
Rank Name GM W-L FGM FGA FG%
1 Florida 18 16-2 560 1028 54.5
2 Air Force 19 17-2 471 898 52.4
3 Georgetown 17 12-5 419 806 52.0

web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?sportCode=MBB&rpt=wkly

[lichoya68]

maybe ft % is greatly concerned with the amount of times you go in the lane and give them another shot whatta you think could that be the hidden factor... and i thought we were first in the country in fg% damn we will have to face florida one on one in the finals to beat them go hoyas beat depaul then florida..

[dajuan]

[/quote]

This is the greatest statistic I have ever seen in my life.

WE MUST IMPROVE OUR FREE THROW DEFENSE, PEOPLE!!!

Personally, I blame the student sections.....buncha' slackers!!

;D[/quote]

I agree. I don't like that lame wave thing they do whenever opponents are shooting FTs. Did anyone see those giant spinning circular orange things that Marquette students use? Now that's distracting.

Also, I'd like to see some harder fouls. Maybe PEJ could take somebody out, make them earn their FTs. This team could use some more attitude.

[YB]

I think, if you're going to foul then knock their butt ot the ground. No and-1 attempt.

[TBird41]

dajuan said:

This is the greatest statistic I have ever seen in my life.

WE MUST IMPROVE OUR FREE THROW DEFENSE, PEOPLE!!!

Personally, I blame the student sections.....buncha' slackers!!

;D[/quote]

I agree. I don't like that lame wave thing they do whenever opponents are shooting FTs. Did anyone see those giant spinning circular orange things that Marquette students use? Now that's distracting.

Also, I'd like to see some harder fouls. Maybe PEJ could take somebody out, make them earn their FTs. This team could use some more attitude. [/quote]

I agree--THe waves are nice, but I think we should return to the "glorious motion" that made Reddick miss.

[HoyaNyr320]

Make that 14....

Jeez... this is realy going to hurt our Pomeroy luck rating

[lichoya68]

yup fourthteen it is 14 it iss go hoyas beat cinncy