What is an acceptable season/off-season that shows progress?

[BeantownHoya]

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Aug 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5 BeantownHoya said:

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

I'll bite. With this schedule, OOC of 10-1. BE record 7-13, BET 1-1, NIT, Keep all freshman and those with remaining eligibility who make up 75% of returning minutes with a caveat that if they go pro, I'm fine with that. Just no transferring to other HM programs.

[SFHoya99]

Aug 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5 BeantownHoya said:

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

Taking the broader question -- "what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward" ... I'd probably focus less on specific numbers here and look at different measures.

At the very basic level, almost anything is technically making progress and moving forward from the last three years, but what I will be looking at in terms of making progress forward at a speed I'm okay with is more about process than straight results. I also don't love the word acceptable -- it implies that if one of these things doesn't happen it's "unacceptable" which ... I don't accept that? What does that even mean? I just run around in denial that it didn't happen? Even in the context of evaluating the coach's employment status, it's an evaluation of the whole, not of individual pieces.

Anywho, signs of clear progress at a reasonable speed:

• A significant jump up in our defense -- both statistically in terms of efficiency but also in the eye test. We have a coherent plan and the players follow it reasonably well, allowing for freshmen. I don't expect us to be necessarily good at defense, but GU and DePaul were ranked > 300 in Adj D last year, and everyone else in the BE was Top 76 or higher. No more running around like a chicken with your head cut off.
• More clear and differing ideas on offense. There were times it looked like we were running something competent last year, but then we'd immediately just go into a very static offense. I'd like to see more intelligent intention. The results should be better, as well, but I want more to see a team with a plan.
• No bad losses in non-conference and limit the blowout losses to good teams to a normal amount. Maybe that's 2 or 3 on the season? I don't know the number, but it can't be 75% of the games like last year. And no Holy Crosses, American, Dartmouth or Navy losses. It's a clear sign we are going to be bad.
• The average scoring margin in the BE is more important to me than specific win totals. I could say a number, but if we lose a bunch of close ones or have some injuries, etc., that means less to me than not feeling like we have zero shot in a good half of our games.
• BET is incredibly small sample, so I don't think it can really affect me much, at least negatively. And the postseason? Eh. There's nothing about going to the postseason or not that isn't covered in the above.
• Truly too many variables, but if we are a decent team, with no seniors, I'd like to keep something like 75% of minutes. I don't think you can do a ton about guys who didn't get PT. That's more about how patient and willing they are than anything, I think. I don't see anyone going pro, but allowances for that as well.

[calhoya]

Aug 28, 2024 11:21:11 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Aug 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5 BeantownHoya said:

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

Taking the broader question -- "what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward" ... I'd probably focus less on specific numbers here and look at different measures.

At the very basic level, almost anything is technically making progress and moving forward from the last three years, but what I will be looking at in terms of making progress forward at a speed I'm okay with is more about process than straight results. I also don't love the word acceptable -- it implies that if one of these things doesn't happen it's "unacceptable" which ... I don't accept that? What does that even mean? I just run around in denial that it didn't happen? Even in the context of evaluating the coach's employment status, it's an evaluation of the whole, not of individual pieces.

Anywho, signs of clear progress at a reasonable speed:

• A significant jump up in our defense -- both statistically in terms of efficiency but also in the eye test. We have a coherent plan and the players follow it reasonably well, allowing for freshmen. I don't expect us to be necessarily good at defense, but GU and DePaul were ranked > 300 in Adj D last year, and everyone else in the BE was Top 76 or higher. No more running around like a chicken with your head cut off.
• More clear and differing ideas on offense. There were times it looked like we were running something competent last year, but then we'd immediately just go into a very static offense. I'd like to see more intelligent intention. The results should be better, as well, but I want more to see a team with a plan.
• No bad losses in non-conference and limit the blowout losses to good teams to a normal amount. Maybe that's 2 or 3 on the season? I don't know the number, but it can't be 75% of the games like last year. And no Holy Crosses, American, Dartmouth or Navy losses. It's a clear sign we are going to be bad.
• The average scoring margin in the BE is more important to me than specific win totals. I could say a number, but if we lose a bunch of close ones or have some injuries, etc., that means less to me than not feeling like we have zero shot in a good half of our games.
• BET is incredibly small sample, so I don't think it can really affect me much, at least negatively. And the postseason? Eh. There's nothing about going to the postseason or not that isn't covered in the above.
• Truly too many variables, but if we are a decent team, with no seniors, I'd like to keep something like 75% of minutes. I don't think you can do a ton about guys who didn't get PT. That's more about how patient and willing they are than anything, I think. I don't see anyone going pro, but allowances for that as well.

I would add to this that the team (as well as individual players) is playing notably better in February than in November/December. Playing better does not necessarily mean winning, but by February I would like to believe that they are competitive in every game and capable of winning most games. The only time this happened in recent years was the improvement that became evident during the one run to the NCAA's that Ewing had. Otherwise in most years, particularly the last three, it appears that the team entered every February game beaten down and expecting to lose.

[Just Cos]

Maybe because the OOC schedule was just released so I’m focused on that, but 8-0 against the cupcakes. Otherwise why put a schedule like this together?

What I believe is a fair and achievable goal is for Georgetown to be part of the bubble discussion. Lots of paths to get there, but a loss to a crappy team makes it a lot harder.

I think it’s way too early to talk about player retention. Need to see what we have first.

[jpj]

OOC 9-0 at home; 0-2 on the road
BE 10-10

19-12 regular season

BET 1-1

NIT 3-1

[hibernatinghoyafan]

OOC: 10-1
BE: 8-12 (minimum - should be able to sweep Depaul and Butler/Hall, then split Hall/Butler, Providence, Nova and then pull off an upset or 2.
BET: all about draw
Postseason: NIT is minimum but I want to be showing up on bubble watch at some point
Retention: I candidly could see one of the 3 centers (Fielder, Julius, or Sorber) transferring given PT concerns and maybe a wing (Caleb or Curtis or McKenna), need to keep Epps/Mack moving into next year.

Next year: need to be top 25 at some point and top 5 in BE is my minimum

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Aug 29, 2024 4:56:19 GMT -5 hibernatinghoyafan said:

OOC: 10-1
BE: 8-12 (minimum - should be able to sweep Depaul and Butler/Hall, then split Hall/Butler, Providence, Nova and then pull off an upset or 2.
BET: all about draw
Postseason: NIT is minimum but I want to be showing up on bubble watch at some point
Retention: I candidly could see one of the 3 centers (Fielder, Julius, or Sorber) transferring given PT concerns and maybe a wing (Caleb or Curtis or McKenna), need to keep Epps/Mack moving into next year.

Next year: need to be top 25 at some point and top 5 in BE is my minimum

I can't see it with Caleb. His family seems to be focused on the long game (for once) and I think a degree means more then playing time in year one or two. He will get his run as a glue guy at some point. Maybe a Terrence Williams type role at Michigan in the first few years. I think all three center/PF's will get plenty of minutes. Fouls, inexperience, and the BE will guarantee that. It's the wings that are new and unknown that I'll be curious about. Not everybody has to play to be happy in year one. By year 2 you want to see a path to PT. Hopefully the set-up has been good and the communication as well as to what is needed and desired.

[RockawayHoya]

Aug 28, 2024 11:00:19 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

Aug 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5 BeantownHoya said:

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

I'll bite. With this schedule, OOC of 10-1. BE record 7-13, BET 1-1, NIT, Keep all freshman and those with remaining eligibility who make up 75% of returning minutes with a caveat that if they go pro, I'm fine with that. Just no transferring to other HM programs.

This is essentially identical to what I would have said. That 1 OOC loss needs to come against another HM, can't be another cupcake loss. There needs to be ample and viable proof that the program is on an upward trajectory in order to attract more talent next spring.

We need to establish an identity. Whether that's physicality/toughness (largely absent for a number of years now), positional flexibility (yep, not good either) that leads to defensive versatility, outside shooting (OK? not elite), playing with pace (we always say we want to, but can we do it well... not so much), whatever... we need to be good enough at something where the opponents need to adjust to what we want to do, not the other way around.

Clear signs of player development. Outside of Fielder, who I know was likely hampered by a nagging injury all last season and also a freshman, I didn't really see any significant improvement from anyone over the course of the season. That can't happen again. We now have the benefit of a full offseason with the current staff. I need to see that guys are getting better year-over-year from both a skills standpoint as well as strength and conditioning. This, along with obviously winning, absolutely needs to happen if we are going to successfully convince future prospective players to join the program.

[CTHoya08]

Aug 28, 2024 11:21:11 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Aug 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5 BeantownHoya said:

I know we have the 24-25 program thread but feel this can be a standalone conversation.

With the schedule now official...

I am defining "acceptable" as from your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward...

1. What would be an acceptable OOC record?

2. What would be an acceptable BE regular season record?

3. What would be an acceptable BE tournament outcome?

4. What would be an acceptable postseason (if any) outcome? Meaning your fine with us not making any postseason, you feel bare minimum NIT, etc.

5. What would be an acceptable roster retention after the 24-25 season be?

Taking the broader question -- "what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward" ... I'd probably focus less on specific numbers here and look at different measures.

At the very basic level, almost anything is technically making progress and moving forward from the last three years, but what I will be looking at in terms of making progress forward at a speed I'm okay with is more about process than straight results. I also don't love the word acceptable -- it implies that if one of these things doesn't happen it's "unacceptable" which ... I don't accept that? What does that even mean? I just run around in denial that it didn't happen? Even in the context of evaluating the coach's employment status, it's an evaluation of the whole, not of individual pieces.

Anywho, signs of clear progress at a reasonable speed:

• A significant jump up in our defense -- both statistically in terms of efficiency but also in the eye test. We have a coherent plan and the players follow it reasonably well, allowing for freshmen. I don't expect us to be necessarily good at defense, but GU and DePaul were ranked > 300 in Adj D last year, and everyone else in the BE was Top 76 or higher. No more running around like a chicken with your head cut off.
• More clear and differing ideas on offense. There were times it looked like we were running something competent last year, but then we'd immediately just go into a very static offense. I'd like to see more intelligent intention. The results should be better, as well, but I want more to see a team with a plan.
• No bad losses in non-conference and limit the blowout losses to good teams to a normal amount. Maybe that's 2 or 3 on the season? I don't know the number, but it can't be 75% of the games like last year. And no Holy Crosses, American, Dartmouth or Navy losses. It's a clear sign we are going to be bad.
• The average scoring margin in the BE is more important to me than specific win totals. I could say a number, but if we lose a bunch of close ones or have some injuries, etc., that means less to me than not feeling like we have zero shot in a good half of our games.
• BET is incredibly small sample, so I don't think it can really affect me much, at least negatively. And the postseason? Eh. There's nothing about going to the postseason or not that isn't covered in the above.
• Truly too many variables, but if we are a decent team, with no seniors, I'd like to keep something like 75% of minutes. I don't think you can do a ton about guys who didn't get PT. That's more about how patient and willing they are than anything, I think. I don't see anyone going pro, but allowances for that as well.

I agree with most of this, but I think we do need to see a marked jump in BE wins. The number I've had in mind is 8, but I suppose 6 or 7 wouldn't be horrible if the caveats you mention above apply. But we do need to put some wins on the board for perception, recruiting momentum, etc. We need to repair the program's brand as seen by people who aren't watching every game, and "5-15 but truly competitive in 10 of the 15 losses" doesn't do that the way that 8-12 does.

FWIW, and to respond to the OP, I don't really care about the non-conference schedule beyond "no embarrassing losses, please."

[SFHoya99]

Aug 29, 2024 10:38:09 GMT -5 CTHoya08 said:

I agree with most of this, but I think we do need to see a marked jump in BE wins. The number I've had in mind is 8, but I suppose 6 or 7 wouldn't be horrible if the caveats you mention above apply. But we do need to put some wins on the board for perception, recruiting momentum, etc. We need to repair the program's brand as seen by people who aren't watching every game, and "5-15 but truly competitive in 10 of the 15 losses" doesn't do that the way that 8-12 does.

I agree with both the points here.

To the second point first, perception is vitally important. I don't know what the "acceptable" number is there, though. If we only get 7 wins, are we doomed? It's a sliding scale, not a binary conversation.

To the first point, we will see an increase in BE wins if the other things I'm looking at improve. There's no world in which we have two or three or four wins and I'm happy with the other components, and the only place where I might feel undecided would be with a large amount of injuries.

But I don't see a lot of point in splitting hairs between 6,7,8 BE wins. Of course, 8 will be better. But if the point differential is much better, we see players develop, we see a plan but just had an extra TCU here or another close loss there that all seems fixable, I'm not going to fixate on the W/L record over the fundamentals that drive it over time.

I don't think OP was doing this, but anytime people are itching to set "acceptable" hard and fast results numbers, it just screams people trying to set up something to get mad about later. If someone sets 8 as the number, and we get 7 but get screwed in one game or lose on a half court buzzer beater ... is that any different?

According to OP, the number here should be the minimum wins that in "your personal view what illustrates to you that the program is making progress and moving forward."

If we get seven wins (or 9! for the people who insist on 10 here) and the team looks like they will be real contenders next year, will they honestly be able to say that the program is making NO progress and isn't moving forward?

Of course not. Not by any rational basis. But they will be able to complain.

[hoyaatheart55]

I want to be in a position by the end of this season where I can realistically expect us to compete for an at large bid NEXT season

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

I'll add another expectation. I would like to be able to rock my new Nike Gtown retro low's and my Gtown homefield retro starter jacket in public. I've been sitting on them for two years and they are still fresh out of the box because we have stunk.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Aug 28, 2024 11:21:11 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I also don't love the word acceptable -- it implies that if one of these things doesn't happen it's "unacceptable" which ... I don't accept that? What does that even mean? I just run around in denial that it didn't happen? Even in the context of evaluating the coach's employment status, it's an evaluation of the whole, not of individual pieces.

I agree with most everything in your post, but especially this. I get it as a sports fan, we often talk about things being acceptable or not (Yankees losing to the Mets in the World Series would be unacceptable, etc.). And as you pointed out, what does that even mean? It's the same thing when fans say (as some did last year) that someone needs to be held accountable, or provide an explanation, etc. That stuff is really usually driven by fan anger, and in reality, it does not ultimately matter.

To me, I think the better question is what results/outcomes this season will satisfy me that the program is making the progress it needs to be making? And I think that fits neatly with all the items you set forth. Better defense, more coherent offense, etc. On defense, we were so bad last year that it would be difficult to be worse (I realize I said this last year, and we were worse, but I think this year we will get better), but I am looking for significant improvement.

While I would love to see it, I think the NIT aspirations, etc. are fine, but also setting the bar possibly too high. Keep in mind last year we won 2 Big East games, we were ranked 192 overall on KenPom, ranked 96 on offense, and 321 on defense. Going from THAT to an NIT quality team would actually be a pretty amazing turnaround for a single season and probably make Cooley a coach of the year candidate within the Big East. I don't have the NIT roster in front of me, but most of them were for sure top 100 teams overall, and some much better than top 100 (like Seton Hall, which won it and finished 50th overall on KenPom). Under the new rules, the top 2 Big East teams that don't make the NCAA tournament make it. Last year, that was Seton Hall (50), and St. John's (ripped off, finished at 21). But even if you go to the next two teams, they were ranked 37 and 59. Do people really see us as as top 60 team next year? I truly hope we are, but I think realistically that is a very low likelihood.

To me, finishing in the top 100 at all, winning our fair share of Big East games, not losing to any cupcakes, having a top 100 defense, and being poised to be an NCAA at large next year are what I want to see (which necessarily, requires retention of much of, but not all, of our current talent).

[jackofjoy]

Aug 29, 2024 15:05:33 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Aug 28, 2024 11:21:11 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I also don't love the word acceptable -- it implies that if one of these things doesn't happen it's "unacceptable" which ... I don't accept that? What does that even mean? I just run around in denial that it didn't happen? Even in the context of evaluating the coach's employment status, it's an evaluation of the whole, not of individual pieces.

I agree with most everything in your post, but especially this. I get it as a sports fan, we often talk about things being acceptable or not (Yankees losing to the Mets in the World Series would be unacceptable, etc.). And as you pointed out, what does that even mean? It's the same thing when fans say (as some did last year) that someone needs to be held accountable, or provide an explanation, etc. That stuff is really usually driven by fan anger, and in reality, it does not ultimately matter.

To me, I think the better question is what results/outcomes this season will satisfy me that the program is making the progress it needs to be making? And I think that fits neatly with all the items you set forth. Better defense, more coherent offense, etc. On defense, we were so bad last year that it would be difficult to be worse (I realize I said this last year, and we were worse, but I think this year we will get better), but I am looking for significant improvement.

While I would love to see it, I think the NIT aspirations, etc. are fine, but also setting the bar possibly too high. Keep in mind last year we won 2 Big East games, we were ranked 192 overall on KenPom, ranked 96 on offense, and 321 on defense. Going from THAT to an NIT quality team would actually be a pretty amazing turnaround for a single season and probably make Cooley a coach of the year candidate within the Big East. I don't have the NIT roster in front of me, but most of them were for sure top 100 teams overall, and some much better than top 100 (like Seton Hall, which won it and finished 50th overall on KenPom). Under the new rules, the top 2 Big East teams that don't make the NCAA tournament make it. Last year, that was Seton Hall (50), and St. John's (ripped off, finished at 21). But even if you go to the next two teams, they were ranked 37 and 59. Do people really see us as as top 60 team next year? I truly hope we are, but I think realistically that is a very low likelihood.

To me, finishing in the top 100 at all, winning our fair share of Big East games, not losing to any cupcakes, having a top 100 defense, and being poised to be an NCAA at large next year are what I want to see (which necessarily, requires retention of much of, but not all, of our current talent).

Interestingly the team that finished exactly #100 in NET last year might be a comparison for this year. Georgia had an overall record of 20-17 (for non program followers, “optically” good) but was 6-12 in conference. That said, the conference losses in general were competitive affairs with a few stinkers.

I guess the caveat being their OOC last year appeared (didn’t do the research) to be stronger than Georgetown’s this year - a few cupcakes but some definite top 100 teams.

So sniffing the top 100 this season - assuming not a huge letdown in overall BE strength - probably is that 7-8 conference win range. Seems like a stretch but we’ll see.

[conshyhoya]

I don't have particular numbers. We have been so horrible the last 3 years that it will be really hard not to improve some. Like most have stated a competent defense which we haven't had since maybe the miracle BE run where they played some decent defense in stretches. Take care of the cupcakes. When was the last season we did that? Seems like a decade ago at least. Sweating out games against the Coppin States of the world or losing to Dartmouth shouldn't happen to a decent team. Definitely some individual player improvement like I feel we saw with Fielder and Rowan last year. No more hero ball game after game. A fluid offense where everyone gets involved. We will still have games where someone is hot but when someone isn't on fire moving the ball. Definitely more competitive games in BE play and some where we actually figure out how to close it out when we are in a dog fight. Retaining the players that show they are good throughout the year or have potential. At the end of the year it should be obvious we are going in the right direction.

[bicentennial]

The Judicial Test no one likes! I'll know it when I see it!

[blueandgray]

By far the two most important KPI’s moving forward….NIL and wins.

[drquigley]

Great in depth analysis but I will rely on the Supreme Court porn test. I’ll know it when I see it. Failure to blow out Lehigh at McDonough may suffice.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Aug 30, 2024 9:50:02 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Great in depth analysis but I will rely on the Supreme Court porn test. I’ll know it when I see it. Failure to blow out Lehigh at McDonough may suffice.

I know nothing about Lehigh's roster, but last year we were ranked 192 on KenPom and Lehigh was 262. Not as far apart as you'd think. Should we be better than last year? Yes. How much? Who knows.

I will say I want a double-digit win in any McDonough game against these cupcake opponents. I am not sure what the threshold is for "blowout" but a 10+ win where we actually play defense and dominate the whole way would be okay with me.