Conference Realignment Discussion

[DFW HOYA]

Aug 23, 2024 17:04:03 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

Feel free to flame away.

Putting aside the money, a really dumb idea. Really dumb.

Anyone here remember Syracuse University? You know, Jim Boeheim, top 10 in basketball, five Final Fours? They went from being a Big East flagship to a geographic outlier. They jumped for the money, too. Since 2014, they've been ranked in the AP Poll just 10 weeks, none since 2019, and have missed the post-season three consecutive years, most since 1967-70. They have never advanced past the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament since 2013, and only two wins in 10 ACC tournaments, usually before crowds of fewer than 3,000. There is no aura around the Orangemen anymore and upstate NY doesn't sell when you could be playing at Duke or Carolina. SU football hasn't won an ACC title, and finished 11th of 15th in the ACC in 2023. How about lacrosse? Ten NCAA championships and 26 Final ours, but none since leaving the Big East, not a one.

Anyone remember Pittsburgh? Twelve NCAA basketball invites from 2002-2014...one since.

Anyone remember Boston College? Didn't think so.

All of these schools have one thing in common: they do not fit the institutional model of their conference and are geographically unable to compete with the limited support versus larger programs elsewhere. The ACC has become a ceiling on the kind of dreams they used to pursue in their region, much like Maryland now faces in the Big Ten. The Terrapins are a schedule filler, not a rival.

This also begs the question: how do they compete? Arizona spends $202 million on athletics, UConn half that. Colorado has a $50 million football budget, UConn $18 million. Where is the Connecticut legislature going to find the money to compete with that, still paying debt on a 38,000 football stadium in need of repair, and for what? Who is coming to see Arizona State and BYU in November? Oh, there's a catch, because football wouldn't be a full member until 2031, if that, which means a big chunk of the media rights won't be there.

In three years Geno Auriemma will have retired, Dan Hurley is coaching the Knicks, and you're trying to sell recruits that your big rival is...Cincinnati? Houston? UCF? It's the AAC all over again. And if this is all a ploy to join the ACC once that ship runs aground in 2036, what will be left there? Wake, SMU, Cal, Stanford, and...Syracuse, Pitt and BC: the conference of misfit toys.

[njhoya78]

Aug 23, 2024 18:34:32 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

Aug 23, 2024 17:04:03 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

Feel free to flame away.

Putting aside the money, a really dumb idea. Really dumb.

Anyone here remember Syracuse University? You know, Jim Boeheim, top 10 in basketball, five Final Fours? They went from being a Big East flagship to a geographic outlier. They jumped for the money, too. Since 2014, they've been ranked in the AP Poll just 10 weeks, none since 2019, and have missed the post-season three consecutive years, most since 1967-70. They have never advanced past the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament since 2013, and only two wins in 10 ACC tournaments, usually before crowds of fewer than 3,000. There is no aura around the Orangemen anymore and upstate NY doesn't sell when you could be playing at Duke or Carolina. SU football hasn't won an ACC title, and finished 11th of 15th in the ACC in 2023. How about lacrosse? Ten NCAA championships and 26 Final ours, but none since leaving the Big East, not a one.

Anyone remember Pittsburgh? Twelve NCAA basketball invites from 2002-2014...one since.

Anyone remember Boston College? Didn't think so.

All of these schools have one thing in common: they do not fit the institutional model of their conference and are geographically unable to compete with the limited support versus larger programs elsewhere. The ACC has become a ceiling on the kind of dreams they used to pursue in their region, much like Maryland now faces in the Big Ten. The Terrapins are a schedule filler, not a rival.

This also begs the question: how do they compete? Arizona spends $202 million on athletics, UConn half that. Colorado has a $50 million football budget, UConn $18 million. Where is the Connecticut legislature going to find the money to compete with that, still paying debt on a 38,000 football stadium in need of repair, and for what? Who is coming to see Arizona State and BYU in November? Oh, there's a catch, because football wouldn't be a full member until 2031, if that, which means a big chunk of the media rights won't be there.

In three years Geno Auriemma will have retired, Dan Hurley is coaching the Knicks, and you're trying to sell recruits that your big rival is...Cincinnati? Houston? UCF? It's the AAC all over again. And if this is all a ploy to join the ACC once that ship runs aground in 2036, what will be left there? Wake, SMU, Cal, Stanford, and...Syracuse, Pitt and BC: the conference of misfit toys.

Unfortunately, I don't think you can put the money aside. And the Big 12 will generate much more moolah for UConn than the Big East. You are right about what will happen regarding Auriemma and Hurley. Danny is not going to stay in Storrs, for road trips to Lawrence KS, Waco TX, Boulder CO and Stillwater OK, when he can make more money and not worry about recruiting and NILs in the NBA. And Gino will be retiring with or without the Big 12 beckoning in a couple of years anyway.

Connecticut isn't looking to compete in football, or probably any other sports aside from men's and women's basketball. They will be happy to be football punching bags so long as the TV revenues keep flowing in.

I think we all saw this coming when UConn re-entered the Big East. They were frozen out of the new Big East when it was formed (rightly or wrongly), because of their desire to field a big-time football team. They were desperate to escape the AAC, and the Big East welcomed them back in. If they bolt this time, it's on them...the Big East will survive, and the Garden will happily continue to host the conference tournament with or without the Huskies.

[aleutianhoya]

The money difference is extraordinary. Full stop. Around 40M per year in B12 and around 7M per year for BE. (Those are just media numbers, someone can correct me if I'm wrong.). UConn probably gets a higher share of NCAA units than anyone else (rightfully so), but the TV nugget is the big one.

They HAVE to do it if offered. This is 30+M per year in revenue. They are running huge deficits that, if continued, would necessitate drastic action at some near point.

I get all the downsides. Of course they do too. I just think the monetary benefit is too big to overcome.

[DFW HOYA]

That 50-7 loss to Maryland last week didn't help.

[njhoya78]

"Jointly decided to pause our conversations at this time."

Sounds just like the announcements of coaching changes in which the departing coach says that it was a mutual decision....

[CTHoya08]

"Conscious uncoupling."

[hoyaguy]

They need 2 more teams by 2026 to qualify as a league. The Pac 12 apparently passed on adding the entire MW which would have waived any fee, instead opting to pay $43 million for these 4 and if they add 2 more from the MW then it will be $67.5 million total. Apparently they can afford it since they have a $265 million "war chest" from the others leaving, so I guess they would rather be prudent in choosing and pay the fee than create a bigger league with more mouths to feed that don't contribute much. Who will they add next?

[DFW HOYA]

Sept 12, 2024 10:24:29 GMT -5 hoyaguy said:

Who will they add next?

Three paths:

1. More Mountain West defections; some combination of Hawaii, UNLV, Air Force, or Utah St.

2. Eastern AAC teams; namely, some combination of Rice, Memphis, UTSA, or Tulane.

3. Add any two and leave the light on for Cal and Stanford.

Wild card: Gonzaga.

All of this has to have a media deal behind it, which, for now, they don't.

[hoyaguy]

Sept 12, 2024 11:19:32 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

Sept 12, 2024 10:24:29 GMT -5 hoyaguy said:

Who will they add next?

Three paths:

1. More Mountain West defections; some combination of Hawaii, UNLV, Air Force, or Utah St.

2. Eastern AAC teams; namely, some combination of Rice, Memphis, UTSA, or Tulane.

3. Add any two and leave the light on for Cal and Stanford.

Wild card: Gonzaga.

All of this has to have a media deal behind it, which, for now, they don't.

That makes sense. Call me crazy, I think it would be better for them to stay more regional which would likely be more stable and of course keep down costs which was a major concern at OSU/WSU. If I were in that position I would with carte blanche:

- Add all 4 of UNLV, Utah State, Air Force, Hawaii (Or one other than Hawaii)
- Add Gonzaga and St Marys (Not that it matters, but this would make the Pac 12 actually 12 teams again in certain sports)
- This allows the league to leave the light on for Cal and Stanford (or any other expansion candidates), but move on to be more than barely surviving and make for a quality basketball league.

I honestly doubt that Stanford would go to this league though, they think too highly of themselves over there. Cal on the other hand maybe would be more receptive if the ACC does not hold together. Something else to consider is if taking UNLV requires taking Nevada as well and if so then I would just cut Hawaii to make it happen. 

[RusskyHoya]

[njhoya78]

Here's an updated breakdown as to who's going where and when; updated information is indicated in bold. 

2025
Delaware departs Coastal Athletic Association, and joins Conference USA
Grand Canyon departs Western Athletic Conference, and joins West Coast Conference
Massachusetts departs Atlantic 10 Conference, and joins Mid-American Conference.
Missouri State departs Missouri Valley Conference, and joins Conference USA
Richmond departs Coastal Athletic Association and joins Patriot League in football only
Seattle departs Western Athletic Conference, and joins West Coast Conference

2026
Boise State departs Mountain West Conference, and joins Pacific 12 Conference
California State Fresno departs Mountain West Conference, and joins Pacific 12 Conference
Colorado State departs Mountain West Conference, and joins Pacific 12 Conference
San Diego State departs Mountain West Conference, and joins Pacific 12 Conference

By conference:

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Subtracts Massachusetts in 2025.

COASTAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION
Subtracts Delaware and Richmond (football only) in 2025.

CONFERENCE USA
Adds Delaware and Missouri State in 2025.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
Adds Massachusetts in 2025.

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
Subtracts Missouri State in 2025.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
Subtracts Boise State, California State Fresno, Colorado State and San Diego State in 2026.

PACIFIC 12 CONFERENCE
Adds Boise State, California State Fresno, Colorado State and San Diego State in 2026.

PATRIOT LEAGUE
Adds Richmond (football only) in 2025.

WEST COAST CONFERENCE
Adds Grand Canyon and Seattle in 2025.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
Subtracts Grand Canyon and Seattle in 2025.

CONFERENCES WITH NO UPCOMING MEMBERSHIP CHANGES
Big East Conference, America East Conference, American Athletic Conference, ASUN Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 12 Conference, Big Sky Conference, Big South Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big West Conference, Horizon League, Ivy League, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley Conference, Southeastern Conference, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Summit League and Sun Belt Conference.

[hoyarooter]

The ghost of Bill Walton is doing a Conference of Champions song and dance.

Also, not to be critical, since you are doing yeoman work here, but nobody in California refers to Fresno State as California State Fresno.

[njhoya78]

Sept 12, 2024 19:01:13 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

The ghost of Bill Walton is doing a Conference of Champions song and dance.

Also, not to be critical, since you are doing yeoman work here, but nobody in California refers to Fresno State as California State Fresno.

I completely understand.

And nobody refers to Albany as New York Albany, Buffalo as New York Buffalo, Stony Brook as New York Stony Brook, Sacramento State as California State Sacramento, Georgia Tech as Georgia Institute of Technology, Virginia Tech as Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Penn State as Pennsylvania State, and so on and so on...but I do in these posts about conference realignment (as well as in the Games of Interest, Coaching Carousel and Coaching Contract Extension threads). I use the school's official name (except for "College" or "University", with the exception of BC and BU). And I have been known, playfully, to refer to Syracuse as Eastern Lower Canada Community College, but I digress.

If it offends you...sorry, but I'm not changing.

[CTHoya08]

Sept 12, 2024 20:30:09 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

Sept 12, 2024 19:01:13 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

The ghost of Bill Walton is doing a Conference of Champions song and dance.

Also, not to be critical, since you are doing yeoman work here, but nobody in California refers to Fresno State as California State Fresno.

I completely understand.

And nobody refers to Albany as New York Albany, Buffalo as New York Buffalo, Stony Brook as New York Stony Brook, Sacramento State as California State Sacramento, Georgia Tech as Georgia Institute of Technology, Virginia Tech as Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Penn State as Pennsylvania State, and so on and so on...but I do in these posts about conference realignment (as well as in the Games of Interest, Coaching Carousel and Coaching Contract Extension threads). I use the school's official name (except for "College" or "University", with the exception of BC and BU). And I have been known, playfully, to refer to Syracuse as Eastern Lower Canada Community College, but I digress.

If it offends you...sorry, but I'm not changing.

As someone with no ties to the place, maybe my opinion is entirely invalid, but it really irks me when people refer to Penn State as "Penn State University." In my mind, if you're going to add the "University" at the end, you need to write out "Pennsylvania" in full.

[hoyarooter]

Sept 12, 2024 20:30:09 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

Sept 12, 2024 19:01:13 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

The ghost of Bill Walton is doing a Conference of Champions song and dance.

Also, not to be critical, since you are doing yeoman work here, but nobody in California refers to Fresno State as California State Fresno.

I completely understand.

And nobody refers to Albany as New York Albany, Buffalo as New York Buffalo, Stony Brook as New York Stony Brook, Sacramento State as California State Sacramento, Georgia Tech as Georgia Institute of Technology, Virginia Tech as Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Penn State as Pennsylvania State, and so on and so on...but I do in these posts about conference realignment (as well as in the Games of Interest, Coaching Carousel and Coaching Contract Extension threads). I use the school's official name (except for "College" or "University", with the exception of BC and BU). And I have been known, playfully, to refer to Syracuse as Eastern Lower Canada Community College, but I digress.

If it offends you...sorry, but I'm not changing.

Doesn't offend me, and it's not a big deal. I don't follow this closely enough to realize that you were following a pattern, and as far as I'm concerned, it's all good. I retract my comment.

[njhoya78]

Sept 13, 2024 18:15:27 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

Sept 12, 2024 20:30:09 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

I completely understand.

And nobody refers to Albany as New York Albany, Buffalo as New York Buffalo, Stony Brook as New York Stony Brook, Sacramento State as California State Sacramento, Georgia Tech as Georgia Institute of Technology, Virginia Tech as Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Penn State as Pennsylvania State, and so on and so on...but I do in these posts about conference realignment (as well as in the Games of Interest, Coaching Carousel and Coaching Contract Extension threads). I use the school's official name (except for "College" or "University", with the exception of BC and BU). And I have been known, playfully, to refer to Syracuse as Eastern Lower Canada Community College, but I digress.

If it offends you...sorry, but I'm not changing.

Doesn't offend me, and it's not a big deal. I don't follow this closely enough to realize that you were following a pattern, and as far as I'm concerned, it's all good. I retract my comment.

No need for retraction. It's all good.

[hoyaguy]

PAC 12 (or 6 for now), is reportedly interested in kneecapping the other G5 top leagues. That is apparently the angle they are going for with the next 2+ teams, so UTSA, Memphis, Texas State and Tulane are names that have popped up, though I have only seen UTSA being contacted as confirmed. UNLV and Air Force are still in the cards, but getting the best from the rest of the other conferences to "secure" the automatic playoff spot seems to be the priority right now. UTSA in the AAC gets about $7 million a year, so the PAC 12 must think they can get significantly more and will help with the exit fees like they did the MW teams. Gonzaga is still definitely in play, but since that is not as important as getting to the 8 football teams threshold by mid 2026, it is on the back burner for now. As mentioned before, I think what happens to the ACC will affect further expansion beyond 8 or 10 with this new PAC 12. Would Cal go back if the ACC fell apart? I feel like Stanford would find a way to wiggle into one of the big conferences.

[DanMcQ]

[DanMcQ]

[DanMcQ]

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