2022-23 Schedule Talk

[guru]

Jul 26, 2022 12:06:05 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

Jul 26, 2022 11:58:35 GMT -5 hoyaguy said:

I agree with Bobby that we need to obviously be building towards going 500 in the BE as a basic necessity and were that to be achieved our schedule should not be the thing holding us back as it did in the past as you can actually control that. There are millions of variables over the course of a basketball season but schedule should not be one of them that works against us if they are serious about making it back to March. And while there have been some decently positive movements towards some willingness to change, this is concerning about any changes in where they matter the most during the season

With this OOC schedule, I think it's pretty clear that we're dealing with one of two scenarios:

1) Ewing/Ronny don't understand how to schedule effectively in the non-conference to give themselves the best chance of making the NCAA Tournament; or
2) The 2022-2023 season isn't about making the NCAA Tournament, it's about showing progress from 6-25, 0-20

It's very unlikely that we'll have an overall losing record based on this OOC schedule, as there is very little excuse to go any worse than 8-3. We'll likely be favored in every non-conference game except at Texas Tech and at Syracuse, with Wake Forest (if we play them) likely a push. We'll be favored to beat Northwestern and South Carolina at home.

So let's say we go 8-3 in the non-conference. We'd then only need to go 8-12 in the Big East to end the regular season with a winning record. That would probably be all the justification DeGioia needs to run it back with Ewing for another season.

I think #2 is certainly true. Pretty long odds that a team could go from 5 wins to the NCAA tournament in one year. Honestly, it’s probably not realistic. And we know that Ewing is likely here for a few more seasons for better or worse (mostly worse, I know).

I think if anyone is going into the season thinking that anything less than a tourney berth is a disappointment, they’re just going to be angry. I don’t like that the program is at this point, but I’m hoping that the climb back starts this year.

[hoyaboya]

Jul 26, 2022 12:11:01 GMT -5 guru said:

Jul 26, 2022 12:06:05 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

With this OOC schedule, I think it's pretty clear that we're dealing with one of two scenarios:

1) Ewing/Ronny don't understand how to schedule effectively in the non-conference to give themselves the best chance of making the NCAA Tournament; or
2) The 2022-2023 season isn't about making the NCAA Tournament, it's about showing progress from 6-25, 0-20

It's very unlikely that we'll have an overall losing record based on this OOC schedule, as there is very little excuse to go any worse than 8-3. We'll likely be favored in every non-conference game except at Texas Tech and at Syracuse, with Wake Forest (if we play them) likely a push. We'll be favored to beat Northwestern and South Carolina at home.

So let's say we go 8-3 in the non-conference. We'd then only need to go 8-12 in the Big East to end the regular season with a winning record. That would probably be all the justification DeGioia needs to run it back with Ewing for another season.

I think #2 is certainly true. Pretty long odds that a team could go from 5 wins to the NCAA tournament in one year. Honestly, it’s probably not realistic. And we know that Ewing is likely here for a few more seasons for better or worse (mostly worse, I know).

I think if anyone is going into the season thinking that anything less than a tourney berth is a disappointment, they’re just going to be angry. I don’t like that the program is at this point, but I’m hoping that the climb back starts this year.

Guru, thank you for the substantive post.

The issue we'd likely have in that scenario, though, is another one of attrition. Murray is a likely 1-and-done at Georgetown. It's unlikely that Heath/Mozone/Wahab will be back after this season as each of those guys is old and likely has aspirations to make money playing basketball. So then we're losing what's likely to be 4 of our top 6 players from a non-NCAA Tournament team. We'll bring back Spears, Ezewiro, Akok and a bunch of guys that probably won't play much this season (Harris, Mutombo, Riley, Bristol, Anglin, Bass) - assuming they don't transfer. We'll have Marvel Allen coming in and hopefully Isaiah Miranda/Dennis Parker, Jr. But is that really accomplishing what we want to accomplish? Pretty doubtful that a roster like that will be considered a likely NCAA Tournament team - just seems like kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can.

[SDHoya]

Can't say I love the full OOC schedule, but it is what is. If the Hoyas are good enough to make the NCAA tournament, the schedule isn't going to stop them but it will make the room for error smaller.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Anybody who has read my posts in the past about scheduling knows that I do not like this OOC. I think it essentially plays us out of the NCAA tournament before we even play unless we turn out to be a lot better than everyone expects (certainly some possibility of that). From a fan perspective, the 300+ games just aren't fun. Our guys are bigger, more athletic, and usually easily win without providing much insight as to how good we are. Fans aren't into it, players aren't into it. After one or two of those games, it gets boring (and it doesn't help the schedule).

If Ewing's main goal is simply to improve this year, but not contend, then the scheduling makes sense (and that could be his goal). If the goal is making the NCAA tournament, it makes no sense.

Again, it's not impossible to make the NCAA's, but for us to do it, we will have to be a lot better than expected. And if we have a bad OOC, it'll be next to impossible.

[prhoya]

Jul 26, 2022 11:32:53 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Ouch! We have to win the Patrick Ewing’s Jamaica Classic Extravaganza, come home to fine tune vs American and UMBC, and get ready for the big OOC challenge at TT, which will be a Top 20 team. If we can win that one, then we’ll be set for a fun BE and my prediction of 10-10 should be enough to make the NCAAT.

Please schedule the first BE after fall semester finals. I prefer a long finals break, just like Coach K used to do.

[daveg023]

Jul 26, 2022 13:16:20 GMT -5 prhoya said:

Jul 26, 2022 11:32:53 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Ouch! We have to win the Patrick Ewing’s Jamaica Classic Extravaganza, come home to fine tune vs American and UMBC, and get ready for the big OOC challenge at TT, which will be a Top 20 team. If we can win that one, then we’ll be set for a fun BE and my prediction of 10-10 should be enough to make the NCAAT.

Please schedule the first BE after fall semester finals. I prefer a long finals break, just like Coach K used to do.

I honestly don’t think this OOC schedule is worth getting that worked up over. If this team can win 10 games in the BE and 1 BET game, even at 8-3 with your best OOC win maybe being NW or SC, it’d be tough to leave out a 19 win team from a deep BE. It’s getting the 10 BE wins I worry about after having 0 last year.

And If we had a harder schedule (say swap NW for Ohio State and Wake for UVA) and we were 6-5 against that schedule, are we really any better off? Computer numbers might be better but we’d still need to win 10-11 games in conference anyway. If we can win 11 games in the BE than I think this is all a moot point. Since I don’t expect us to do that, I feel like getting overly upset about this schedule isn’t worth it either.

The only scenario it’s even a factor is if we stumble with this weaker schedule and go 5-6 say but then suddenly get a lot better and go 11-9 in conference and finish 16-15. If that’s how you think it’ll play out, then I can see being upset, but honestly if we lose 6 games early on this schedule, I highly doubt we are only losing 9 in conference. Will either be good enough for it not to letter or we’ll be so far off the bubble it’s a non issue.

[hoyaboya]

Jul 26, 2022 14:20:35 GMT -5 daveg023 said:

Jul 26, 2022 13:16:20 GMT -5 prhoya said:

Ouch! We have to win the Patrick Ewing’s Jamaica Classic Extravaganza, come home to fine tune vs American and UMBC, and get ready for the big OOC challenge at TT, which will be a Top 20 team. If we can win that one, then we’ll be set for a fun BE and my prediction of 10-10 should be enough to make the NCAAT.

Please schedule the first BE after fall semester finals. I prefer a long finals break, just like Coach K used to do.

I honestly don’t think this OOC schedule is worth getting that worked up over. If this team can win 10 games in the BE and 1 BET game, even at 8-3 with your best OOC win maybe being NW or SC, it’d be tough to leave out a 19 win team from a deep BE. It’s getting the 10 BE wins I worry about after having 0 last year.

And If we had a harder schedule (say swap NW for Ohio State and Wake for UVA) and we were 6-5 against that schedule, are we really any better off? Computer numbers might be better but we’d still need to win 10-11 games in conference anyway. If we can win 11 games in the BE than I think this is all a moot point. Since I don’t expect us to do that, I feel like getting overly upset about this schedule isn’t worth it either.

The only scenario it’s even a factor is if we stumble with this weaker schedule and go 5-6 say but then suddenly get a lot better and go 11-9 in conference and finish 16-15. If that’s how you think it’ll play out, then I can see being upset, but honestly if we lose 6 games early on this schedule, I highly doubt we are only losing 9 in conference. Will either be good enough for it not to letter or we’ll be so far off the bubble it’s a non issue.

8-3 non-conference with this schedule and 11-9 in the Big East isn't getting into the NCAAs as an at-large. That's a 19-12 team with bad computer ratings. We'd have to win at least 2 BET games to get in with that scenario and we'd still probably be left out in the cold.

In your scenario at 8-3 OOC and 10-10 in the BET, then 1-1 in the BET (19-14 overall) - absolutely zero chance of an at-large.

I don't think people realize how bad having 3 teams with 275+ RPIs is along with how bad the high majors are that we're playing. Beating NW and South Carolina at home does absolutely nothing for us - those will not be considered quality wins.

[hoyaboya]

[conshyhoya]

Jul 26, 2022 14:40:17 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

Jul 26, 2022 14:20:35 GMT -5 daveg023 said:

I honestly don’t think this OOC schedule is worth getting that worked up over. If this team can win 10 games in the BE and 1 BET game, even at 8-3 with your best OOC win maybe being NW or SC, it’d be tough to leave out a 19 win team from a deep BE. It’s getting the 10 BE wins I worry about after having 0 last year.

And If we had a harder schedule (say swap NW for Ohio State and Wake for UVA) and we were 6-5 against that schedule, are we really any better off? Computer numbers might be better but we’d still need to win 10-11 games in conference anyway. If we can win 11 games in the BE than I think this is all a moot point. Since I don’t expect us to do that, I feel like getting overly upset about this schedule isn’t worth it either.

The only scenario it’s even a factor is if we stumble with this weaker schedule and go 5-6 say but then suddenly get a lot better and go 11-9 in conference and finish 16-15. If that’s how you think it’ll play out, then I can see being upset, but honestly if we lose 6 games early on this schedule, I highly doubt we are only losing 9 in conference. Will either be good enough for it not to letter or we’ll be so far off the bubble it’s a non issue.

8-3 non-conference with this schedule and 11-9 in the Big East isn't getting into the NCAAs as an at-large. That's a 19-12 team with bad computer ratings. We'd have to win at least 2 BET games to get in with that scenario and we'd still probably be left out in the cold.

20 wins and 13 in BE is getting in the tournament. Has there ever be a 20 win team from a major conference that didn't get in with 12 in conference wins?

[hoyaboya]

Jul 26, 2022 14:47:48 GMT -5 conshyhoya said:

Jul 26, 2022 14:40:17 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

8-3 non-conference with this schedule and 11-9 in the Big East isn't getting into the NCAAs as an at-large. That's a 19-12 team with bad computer ratings. We'd have to win at least 2 BET games to get in with that scenario and we'd still probably be left out in the cold.

20 wins and 13 in BE is getting in the tournament. Has there ever be a 20 win team from a major conference that didn't get in with 12 in conference wins?

Most high major conferences historically do not have teams play 20 conference games, so it's not a comparison you can make.

That said, are you expecting a 13-7 conference record? I don't think anybody's arguing that a 13-7 conference record wouldn't make the NCAAs (barring a loss to American, Green Bay or Coppin State).

[conshyhoya]

Jul 26, 2022 14:53:10 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

Jul 26, 2022 14:47:48 GMT -5 conshyhoya said:

20 wins and 13 in BE is getting in the tournament. Has there ever be a 20 win team from a major conference that didn't get in with 12 in conference wins?

Most high major conferences historically do not have teams play 20 conference games, so it's not a comparison you can make.

That said, are you expecting a 13-7 conference record? I don't think anybody's arguing that a 13-7 conference record wouldn't make the NCAAs (barring a loss to American, Green Bay or Coppin State).

Typo, I meant 10 during BE play and 2 in BET giving them an overall 20 win season.

[blueandgray]

I think way too much is being made about our non-conference SOS. Folks, we went 0-19 last year in conference. That’s where our complete focus needs to be.

[prhoya]

boya, I nominate you to give us the lowdown re: OOC opponents’ rosters.

[hoyaboya]

The other thing about this schedule - it will take an absolute marketing wizard to get more than 8,000 fans to attend any of these home games. Northwestern on Tuesday, 11/15 and South Carolina on Saturday, 12/3 are the only decent games for home fans to watch. Based on last year's attendance, I'd guess we're looking at between 4K - 7K for most of the non-conference home games.

[rhw485]

This is obviously a big assumption on my part...but I generally look at the schedule as an indication of how the staff views the team.  We can talk about all the bad schedules from Ewing, but in Year 3, when Ewing thought he was going to have a good team, he put together a really solid schedule. So in that light, I always try to think about the games that aren't in their control vs. ones that are going into the year:

Not in their control
- Texas Tech (Big 12 event) and Northwestern (Big 10 event)

Technically in control but really part of multi year deals / return games
- Syracuse and South Carolina

Games for this season that are really in the staff's discretion for this year
- MTE in Jamaica (include Green Bay here as well), Coppin State, American, UMBC, Siena

Now obviously the staff knew their allocated games against Texas Tech and Northwestern so in theory they factored that in...but that 3rd bucket doesn't scream super confidence.  Even though we lost the game Year 3 to UNC Greensboro, I loved the concept behind scheduling it.  Try to aim for quad 2 home game you think you should win.  Throw in the Jamaica event having real scheduling downside risk if you don't get Wake, and it's tough.

Sure, if you win 11+ BE games this year you should be fine, but if you're really on the bubble I don't think this schedule does wonders.  And the reality is that probably wasn't the priority for the staff when they put it together.  

[hoyalove4ever]

We need to walk before we run...win some games, then decent games, and then look at possible postseason...

[hibernatinghoyafan]

Stop the doom and gloom. We are going 10-1 OOC and at least 12-8 in conference. 7 seed in the dance. Put it in writing.

[SSHoya]

Jul 26, 2022 16:31:17 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

We need to walk before we run...win some games, then decent games, and then look at possible postseason...

We have to crawl first, then walk, then run. 😁

[calhoya]

Coming off last season and adding 10 new players, I am not surprised at the OOC schedule at all. Cannot blame Ewing for the Northwestern game. I will continue to expect to see major growth in team play between the November games and the February games and that is in my mind the real measure of success for next year for the coaching staff and the team.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Jul 26, 2022 16:31:17 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

We need to walk before we run...win some games, then decent games, and then look at possible postseason...

This would be more compelling if we didn't overhaul our roster every offseason, replacing half of it because of guys who transfer, leave, etc.

I really think we underestimate the impact of the 300+ games on our roster. They create awful game experiences that (a) have few fans, (b) likely do not interest the players all that much, and (c) do not challenge or test our guys at all. The games show very little about our abilities, and while they give a chance to play various lineups, etc., it's still not all that helpful.

Maybe Ewing thinks that putting some easy wins on the board will change perceptions, but Craig Esherick showed in 2004 that that strategy doesn't work. Nobody in modern basketball puts any credence into the cupcake wins other than maybe Ronny or DeGioia.

In all likelihood we will enter December with a pretty nice record, and still know very little about our team (unless they lose games they should win or run the table, both of which are unlikely).