hoya73
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by hoya73 on Jul 22, 2022 16:17:03 GMT -5
We have to be on the bubble for this to matter, but, does the committee take into account something like this when you have no control over the pairings? So if you were out in Hawaii and got Chaminade for instance, do you get docked the same as if you scheduled Green Bay as a buy game at home? I would think that would have to have some effect. Georgetown certainly has a say in which tournament it chooses to play. The Hoyas knew, when choosing to play in the Jamaica Classic, that it would be a much worse field than other tournaments. It's the risk you take when you play the Jamaica Classic rather than Maui or the Jimmy V Classic (as examples). The Chaminade example is not a great one because even if a team draws Chaminade in Maui, it's still guaranteed to play 2 other top 100 teams - and most likely, those 2 other top 100 teams will actually be top 50 teams. That's not the case at the Jamaica Classic. Is it news to anybody else that we had offers, which we turned down, to play in this coming year's Maui and Jimmy V? Or, is that not the implication? |
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 22, 2022 17:36:47 GMT -5
I truly hope that the issue of being on or off the bubble is relevant come next February and we are all arguing about the strength of schedule. What a high bar. Year 6 of the Patrick Ewing era, ladies and gentlemen! |
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calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by calhoya on Jul 22, 2022 21:20:19 GMT -5
I truly hope that the issue of being on or off the bubble is relevant come next February and we are all arguing about the strength of schedule. What a high bar. Year 6 of the Patrick Ewing era, ladies and gentlemen! Well the bar isn’t high anymore and Hoya fans have to accept that fact. That is what Hoya hoops have come to, but notwithstanding what side of the Ewing debate you are on, (and my position is pretty well stated that he should not have been retained), I just want to be competitive again. |
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 23, 2022 10:48:41 GMT -5
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jul 23, 2022 11:25:41 GMT -5
You’re missing: 11/18: vs. Loyola-Mmt. |
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 23, 2022 11:27:55 GMT -5
You’re missing: 11/18: vs. Loyola-Mmt. Thank you, just updated. We will also be playing either Wake Forest (77) or LaSalle (252) in the Jamaica Classic - really have to hope that it's Wake Forest for our at-large chances. |
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jul 23, 2022 12:09:01 GMT -5
Any idea how those rosters are looking like for next year? According to that linked article, Texas Tech will have one of the top frontcourts in college basketball. |
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Post by hibernatinghoyafan on Jul 23, 2022 14:00:01 GMT -5
Any idea how those rosters are looking like for next year? According to that linked article, Texas Tech will have one of the top frontcourts in college basketball. Northwestern returns 4 starters so they should be top 75 or so. Have a good backcourt. USC just got #1 recruit GG Jackson to commit. They should be solid this year. Cuse has more depth so I see them closer to top 75 this year but still nothing special. |
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jul 26, 2022 11:03:50 GMT -5
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 26, 2022 11:09:25 GMT -5
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 26, 2022 11:16:43 GMT -5
If the full schedule comes out and shows Hoyas have multiple other games against likely 300+ opponents, then that is a problem. A single game against a bad team is not the worst thing in the world. Bump |
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Jul 26, 2022 11:27:07 GMT -5
Any idea how those teams shape up for THIS year?
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Jul 26, 2022 11:28:03 GMT -5
I actually am not that upset by this. It's not nearly as bad as Ewing's first year. Every BE school usually plays at least one +300 RPI team. Sure, I'd like to see only 2 of 3 out of Green Bay, Coppin St, and American, but it is what it is. UMBC and Siena games are perfectly acceptable.
We then have 4 solid (but not unwinnable) P5 games with 'Cuse, NW, TT, and SC. Maybe we'll get a game with another mediocre, but still P5 team in Wake?
To me the problem with the schedule is the Jamaica Classic tournament. It is among the weakest MTE you can play in. If we were in a better MTE Id be totally fine with this schedule, and we'd be getting 1-2 higher quality games (with much better exposure too).
I'd think with this schedule the team has to be 8-3 on this schedule to go into BE play with any hopes:
- 1-3 or 2-2 against 'Cuse, NW, TT, SC
- 2-0 or 1-1 in Jamaica (preferably with a win over Wake)
- 5-0 against GB, CS, Siena, UMBC, and AU
My guess is we'll probably be 7-4 come the conference opener. Not awful, but probably not good enough either if you don't win at least 11 BE games.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Jul 26, 2022 11:32:53 GMT -5
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by hoya9797 on Jul 26, 2022 11:44:38 GMT -5
Any idea how those teams shape up for THIS year? According to the Bart Torvik projections: Coppin St - 283 Green Bay - 345 Northwestern - 95 American - 301 UMBC - 300 Texas Tech - 27 SC - 136 Siena - 328 Syracuse - 84 |
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Jul 26, 2022 11:50:55 GMT -5
Any idea how those teams shape up for THIS year? According to the Bart Torvik projections: Coppin St - 283 Green Bay - 345 Northwestern - 95 American - 301 UMBC - 300 Texas Tech - 27 SC - 136 Siena - 328 Syracuse - 84 Wonder if GG Jackson on SC now is factored in? |
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 26, 2022 11:51:07 GMT -5
I actually am not that upset by this. It's not nearly as bad as Ewing's first year. Every BE school usually plays at least one +300 RPI team. Sure, I'd like to see only 2 of 3 out of Green Bay, Coppin St, and American, but it is what it is. UMBC and Siena games are perfectly acceptable. We then have 4 solid (but not unwinnable) P5 games with 'Cuse, NW, TT, and SC. Maybe we'll get a game with another mediocre, but still P5 team in Wake? To me the problem with the schedule is the Jamaica Classic tournament. It is among the weakest MTE you can play in. If we were in a better MTE Id be totally fine with this schedule, and we'd be getting 1-2 higher quality games (with much better exposure too). I'd think with this schedule the team has to be 8-3 on this schedule to go into BE play with any hopes: - 1-3 or 2-2 against 'Cuse, NW, TT, SC - 2-0 or 1-1 in Jamaica (preferably with a win over Wake) - 5-0 against GB, CS, Siena, UMBC, and AU My guess is we'll probably be 7-4 come the conference opener. Not awful, but probably not good enough either if you don't win at least 11 BE games. I think your analysis for likely Ws-Ls is very solid. However, I think you're overrating the impact of the high major opponents on a positive RPI/NET. Texas Tech is the only good high major team we're playing. Northwestern and South Carolina will be lower tier teams in the Big Ten and SEC respectively. Syracuse will be no better than a medium tier ACC team. And if we get Wake Forest (hopefully) rather than LMU in the Jamaica Classic, it's expected that Wake Forest will be no better than a medium tier ACC team as well. Best case scenario: We go 10-1 with the only loss being at Texas Tech. In that scenario, we will likely need to only go 9-11 in the Big East to make the NCAA as an at-large. Most likely scenario: We go 8-3 or 9-2 with losses to Texas Tech and one or two of Northwestern, South Carolina, Syracuse and Wake Forest. While we don't have any bad losses, we don't really have any impressive victories, either. The only potentially impressive victory would be at Syracuse, but it's not like that will be a top 50 road win. Beating Northwestern and South Carolina at home won't impress anybody. Beating Wake Forest at a neutral site would be good, but not overly impressive either. In this scenario, we'd likely need to go at least 11-9 in the Big East to make the NCAA as an at-large. Worst case scenario: We go 7-4 or 6-5 with losses to Texas Tech and three or four of Northwestern, South Carolina, Syracuse and Wake Forest. In this scenario, we'd likely need to go at least 13-7 in the Big East to make the NCAA as an at-large. Finally, in both the most likely scenario and worst case scenario, we have zero margin for error with the bottom of our schedule. Lose to Green Bay, American, or Coppin State and the season is effectively over before it started. Home losses to Siena and UMBC would also be considered very bad. There just aren't enough potential good wins on the schedule to make up for a bad loss. With the way Ewing/Thompson scheduled this upcoming season, they've given themselves very little room for error. Which is pretty fitting that they haven't learned their lesson after all these years. |
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guru
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Post by guru on Jul 26, 2022 11:56:09 GMT -5
This really might break the bots. |
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hoyaguy
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Post by hoyaguy on Jul 26, 2022 11:58:35 GMT -5
I agree with Bobby that we need to obviously be building towards going 500 in the BE as a basic necessity and were that to be achieved our schedule should not be the thing holding us back as it did in the past as you can actually control that. There are millions of variables over the course of a basketball season but schedule should not be one of them that works against us if they are serious about making it back to March. And while there have been some decently positive movements towards some willingness to change, this is concerning about any changes in where they matter the most during the season |
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 26, 2022 12:06:05 GMT -5
I agree with Bobby that we need to obviously be building towards going 500 in the BE as a basic necessity and were that to be achieved our schedule should not be the thing holding us back as it did in the past as you can actually control that. There are millions of variables over the course of a basketball season but schedule should not be one of them that works against us if they are serious about making it back to March. And while there have been some decently positive movements towards some willingness to change, this is concerning about any changes in where they matter the most during the season With this OOC schedule, I think it's pretty clear that we're dealing with one of two scenarios: 1) Ewing/Ronny don't understand how to schedule effectively in the non-conference to give themselves the best chance of making the NCAA Tournament; or 2) The 2022-2023 season isn't about making the NCAA Tournament, it's about showing progress from 6-25, 0-20 It's very unlikely that we'll have an overall losing record based on this OOC schedule, as there is very little excuse to go any worse than 8-3. We'll likely be favored in every non-conference game except at Texas Tech and at Syracuse, with Wake Forest (if we play them) likely a push. We'll be favored to beat Northwestern and South Carolina at home. So let's say we go 8-3 in the non-conference. We'd then only need to go 8-12 in the Big East to end the regular season with a winning record. That would probably be all the justification DeGioia needs to run it back with Ewing for another season. |
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