hoyajinx
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,340
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Post by hoyajinx on Feb 23, 2022 9:53:53 GMT -5
It should be obvious, but I’ll spell it out for you: Trump was destabilizing the west, alienating allies, defanging NATO, and undermining American democracy. You know, doing all of Putin’s work for him. It would have been reckless for him to invade under Trump’s watch. Also, forward looking, putting Biden in a bad position helps Trump in 2024. It’s not all that difficult to grasp. Hope that helped. Or, he knows Biden will screw the pooch on this as he has for 40 years. Or, you know, what I literally just wrote.
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Elvado
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,480
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 9:55:12 GMT -5
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Post by Elvado on Feb 23, 2022 9:55:12 GMT -5
Or, he knows Biden will screw the pooch on this as he has for 40 years. Or, you know, what I literally just wrote. One of those. I hope you are right and Joe does not screw this up…
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HoyaNyr320
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,233
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 10:00:16 GMT -5
Post by HoyaNyr320 on Feb 23, 2022 10:00:16 GMT -5
It should be obvious, but I’ll spell it out for you: Trump was destabilizing the west, alienating allies, defanging NATO, and undermining American democracy. You know, doing all of Putin’s work for him. It would have been reckless for him to invade under Trump’s watch. Also, forward looking, putting Biden in a bad position helps Trump in 2024. It’s not all that difficult to grasp. Hope that helped. Or, he knows Biden will screw the pooch on this as he has for 40 years.
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hoyajinx
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,340
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 10:02:41 GMT -5
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Post by hoyajinx on Feb 23, 2022 10:02:41 GMT -5
Or, you know, what I literally just wrote. One of those. I hope you are right and Joe does not screw this up… Look, I’m not saying Biden is even close to being a competent president. Also, I’m not sure he won’t botch this, but I am sure that he has at least some competent people around him advising him and isn’t afraid to upset the Putin apple cart. Compare that to Trump, who just yesterday was praising Putin for his “genius”. When it comes to being hard on Putin, you can make a lot of arguments that Biden isn’t up to the task, but he’s a far sight better than a groveling, Putin-worshipping Trump could ever be.
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hoya73
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,222
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 11:10:32 GMT -5
Post by hoya73 on Feb 23, 2022 11:10:32 GMT -5
If Trump were still in office, negotiation would be regarding a Lavrov-Pompeo Pact to divide Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics up, with Russia getting most of the spoils.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Post by EasyEd on Feb 23, 2022 12:52:37 GMT -5
What's happening in Ukraine is very bad for the world and for this country. I pray that the Biden administration will make decisions best for all and that the vast majority of American citizens will back him. Time enough in the future to second guess Biden's decisions. We are all Americans today.
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,262
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 23, 2022 15:11:49 GMT -5
With those few words, Trump has just made a fool of every right-winger who has tried to pretend that he would have been tougher on Putin than Biden is currently being. Trump did claim that “this never would have happened with us,” but this was merely his usual rhetorical ploy of blaming Russian aggression on former president Barack Obama or on Biden rather than on Putin. Indeed, it’s hard to think of a single negative word Trump has ever uttered about the Russian tyrant. And that’s just the way his most devoted supporters like it. It’s true that many mainstream Republicans criticize Biden for being too weak on Russia. But the hardcore MAGA base thinks that Biden has too been too hostile to Putin, who is viewed more favorably by Republican voters than Biden is. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/23/trump-praises-putin-ukraine-refuting-claims-tough-on-russia/
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hoya73
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,222
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 15:31:50 GMT -5
Post by hoya73 on Feb 23, 2022 15:31:50 GMT -5
My big practical question is one that the Biden admin shouldn't address in public. Is cyberwarfare our ace in the hole? I'm glad that "boots on the ground" is off the table, although Javelins might require some training, maybe to be given in a neighboring country? Progressive sanctions are slow acting, even if they work.
We have some demonstrated success, years ago, with Stuxnet. But, for the most part our cyberwar capacity is theoretical. How confident are we that we could beat Russia at cyber, despite their having a lot more practice?
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,262
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 23, 2022 15:43:37 GMT -5
My big practical question is one that the Biden admin shouldn't address in public. Is cyberwarfare our ace in the hole? I'm glad that "boots on the ground" is off the table, although Javelins might require some training, maybe to be given in a neighboring country? Progressive sanctions are slow acting, even if they work. We have some demonstrated success, years ago, with Stuxnet. But, for the most part our cyberwar capacity is theoretical. How confident are we that we could beat Russia at cyber, despite their having a lot more practice? I disagree. The capability exists but the decision to use it against another nation is complex. The use against non-state actors (see examples below) is an easier call. US cyber capability is more than theoretical but policy decisions about offensive use of cyber was and continues to be fraught. Accordingly, the US has only used offensive cyber in limited circumstances and as you note, most of our cyber capability remains highly classified. (My last 8 years at DOJ before retiring was in the National Security Division and worked issues with NSA and have seen some demonstrations of its capabilities.) warontherocks.com/2021/03/five-reasons-not-to-split-cyber-command-from-the-nsa-any-time-soon-if-ever/A response to ISIS required a new kind of warfare, and so the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command created a secret task force, a special mission, and an operation that would become one of the largest and longest offensive cyber operations in U.S. military history. Few details about Joint Task Force ARES and Operation Glowing Symphony have been made public. www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isisU.S. intelligence services carried out 231 offensive cyber-operations in 2011, the leading edge of a clandestine campaign that embraces the Internet as a theater of spying, sabotage and war, according to top-secret documents obtained by The Washington Post. www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-spy-agencies-mounted-231-offensive-cyber-operations-in-2011-documents-show/2013/08/30/d090a6ae-119e-11e3-b4cb-fd7ce041d814_story.html
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DallasHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,631
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Post by DallasHoya on Feb 23, 2022 16:40:16 GMT -5
Revoke the Student Visas of the Russian Oligarchs’ Kids!One more step that is still missing from these allegedly “swift and severe” consequences for a Russian invasion of Ukraine: barring the children of Russian government officials and oligarchs from studying in American universities, and revoking their visas permitting them to live in this country. Back at the end of January, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, “I can confirm we have developed specific sanctions packages for both Russian elites and their family members if Russia further invades Ukraine.” But so far, this option remains unused. There were 4,805 international students from Russia at U.S. higher education institutions in the 2020-2021 school year, a -9.2 percent decline from the previous year. While not every Russian student who studies in the U.S. is the son or daughter of a Russian government official or oligarch, it’s a safe bet that at least a handful are. Back in 2017, the New York Observer did a roundup of the children of high-ranking Russian officials who study and live here in the United States and European capitals: Ekaterina Vinokourova, the only daughter of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, spent 17 years in the U.S. and studied political science at Columbia University and economics at London School of Economics. Alexandra, daughter of Deputy of Russian Parliament Petr Tolstoy, was recently accepted into Yale University, which she thinks is “very cool.” …The son of Russian MP Alexander Remezkov, after graduating from boarding school in Pennsylvania, continued his education at Hofstra University on Long Island, N.Y. …Anastasia, daughter of MP Vyacheslav Fetisov, has lived in the U.S. her entire life and does not know how to read or write in Russian. The daughter of Parliamentarian Irina Rodnina lives in Washington D.C. If Russian government officials are carrying out the orders of Putin, facilitating the invasion of Ukraine, and the oligarchs are nodding along, U.S. colleges and universities shouldn’t be rolling out the red carpet for their kids.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,507
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 23:07:37 GMT -5
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 23, 2022 23:07:37 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,507
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 23:08:07 GMT -5
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 23, 2022 23:08:07 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,507
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Ukraine
Feb 23, 2022 23:09:31 GMT -5
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 23, 2022 23:09:31 GMT -5
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,262
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Ukraine
Feb 24, 2022 6:02:09 GMT -5
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 24, 2022 6:02:09 GMT -5
Export controls - Targeted but expansive export control restrictions on industrial and consumer technologies developed from U.S. technologies or containing U.S.-made components (whether foreign-made or U.S.-made) aimed at Russia’s telecommunications, arms, and aerospace industries. SWIFT - Blocking Russia’s access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system Further sanction Belarus. www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/50/chapter-35
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Post by badgerhoya on Feb 24, 2022 7:59:26 GMT -5
My big practical question is one that the Biden admin shouldn't address in public. Is cyberwarfare our ace in the hole? I'm glad that "boots on the ground" is off the table, although Javelins might require some training, maybe to be given in a neighboring country? Progressive sanctions are slow acting, even if they work. We have some demonstrated success, years ago, with Stuxnet. But, for the most part our cyberwar capacity is theoretical. How confident are we that we could beat Russia at cyber, despite their having a lot more practice? I disagree. The capability exists but the decision to use it against another nation is complex. The use against non-state actors (see examples below) is an easier call. US cyber capability is more than theoretical but policy decisions about offensive use of cyber was and continues to be fraught. Accordingly, the US has only used offensive cyber in limited circumstances and as you note, most of our cyber capability remains highly classified. (My last 8 years at DOJ before retiring was in the National Security Division and worked issues with NSA and have seen some demonstrations of its capabilities.) warontherocks.com/2021/03/five-reasons-not-to-split-cyber-command-from-the-nsa-any-time-soon-if-ever/A response to ISIS required a new kind of warfare, and so the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command created a secret task force, a special mission, and an operation that would become one of the largest and longest offensive cyber operations in U.S. military history. Few details about Joint Task Force ARES and Operation Glowing Symphony have been made public. www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isisU.S. intelligence services carried out 231 offensive cyber-operations in 2011, the leading edge of a clandestine campaign that embraces the Internet as a theater of spying, sabotage and war, according to top-secret documents obtained by The Washington Post. www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-spy-agencies-mounted-231-offensive-cyber-operations-in-2011-documents-show/2013/08/30/d090a6ae-119e-11e3-b4cb-fd7ce041d814_story.htmlJust two other points on this topic… 1) It’s really hard to keep the damage limited to just your target. In 2017, we know that Russian authorities developed NotPetya to disrupt Ukrainian businesses using a very Ukrainian accounting software that’s really not used elsewhere. That attack effectively took down Maersk and Mondelez, two clearly *not* Ukrainian businesses. Check this story out from Wired from a few years ago for more info: www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/2) We know that Russians are effectively already in our critical infrastructure. Just a fact, whether it’s a state sponsored actor or just a run of the mill hacker who the state allows to operate. You can bet that if we launched something, we would absolutely see some sector / region impacted severely by one of their cyber weapons. All of which is to say that while tempting, I don’t think we’re set up as a society yet to really launch anything offensive here. Not unless we’re all prepared to pay a price.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 11:08:06 GMT -5
So Putin waited until his puppet was out of office and replaced by the Uber competent Biden to launch his incursion?
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,262
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Ukraine
Feb 24, 2022 13:00:52 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by SSHoya on Feb 24, 2022 13:00:52 GMT -5
Just two other points on this topic… 1) It’s really hard to keep the damage limited to just your target. In 2017, we know that Russian authorities developed NotPetya to disrupt Ukrainian businesses using a very Ukrainian accounting software that’s really not used elsewhere. That attack effectively took down Maersk and Mondelez, two clearly *not* Ukrainian businesses. Check this story out from Wired from a few years ago for more info: www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/2) We know that Russians are effectively already in our critical infrastructure. Just a fact, whether it’s a state sponsored actor or just a run of the mill hacker who the state allows to operate. You can bet that if we launched something, we would absolutely see some sector / region impacted severely by one of their cyber weapons. All of which is to say that while tempting, I don’t think we’re set up as a society yet to really launch anything offensive here. Not unless we’re all prepared to pay a price. Here we go with the tough policy decision. President Joe Biden has been presented with a menu of options for the U.S. to carry out massive cyberattacks designed to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine, four people familiar with the deliberations tell NBC News. Two U.S. intelligence officials, one Western intelligence official and another person briefed on the matter say no final decisions have been made, but they say U.S. intelligence and military cyber warriors are proposing the use of American cyberweapons on a scale never before contemplated. Among the options: disrupting internet connectivity across Russia, shutting off electric power, and tampering with railroad switches to hamper Russia’s ability to resupply its forces, three of the sources said. www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-presented-options-massive-cyberattacks-russia-rcna17558
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 13:47:30 GMT -5
God bless these people.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,265
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Post by prhoya on Feb 24, 2022 14:20:25 GMT -5
Will Comrade Tucker make these demonstrations look like pro-Putin rallies to his audience tonight? How would they know the difference?
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Elvado
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,480
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Ukraine
Feb 24, 2022 16:27:18 GMT -5
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Post by Elvado on Feb 24, 2022 16:27:18 GMT -5
Just two other points on this topic… 1) It’s really hard to keep the damage limited to just your target. In 2017, we know that Russian authorities developed NotPetya to disrupt Ukrainian businesses using a very Ukrainian accounting software that’s really not used elsewhere. That attack effectively took down Maersk and Mondelez, two clearly *not* Ukrainian businesses. Check this story out from Wired from a few years ago for more info: www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/2) We know that Russians are effectively already in our critical infrastructure. Just a fact, whether it’s a state sponsored actor or just a run of the mill hacker who the state allows to operate. You can bet that if we launched something, we would absolutely see some sector / region impacted severely by one of their cyber weapons. All of which is to say that while tempting, I don’t think we’re set up as a society yet to really launch anything offensive here. Not unless we’re all prepared to pay a price. Here we go with the tough policy decision. President Joe Biden has been presented with a menu of options for the U.S. to carry out massive cyberattacks designed to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine, four people familiar with the deliberations tell NBC News. Two U.S. intelligence officials, one Western intelligence official and another person briefed on the matter say no final decisions have been made, but they say U.S. intelligence and military cyber warriors are proposing the use of American cyberweapons on a scale never before contemplated. Among the options: disrupting internet connectivity across Russia, shutting off electric power, and tampering with railroad switches to hamper Russia’s ability to resupply its forces, three of the sources said. www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-presented-options-massive-cyberattacks-russia-rcna17558It is both encouraging to know we have these options to derail Putin’s plans and disgusting that they are openly discussed.
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