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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 11, 2019 10:05:12 GMT -5
I really think there's only 4-5 spots available for 12 teams right now: I think the Ohio St./Indiana, and Clemson/NC State winners are in. So then it's OSU/IU loser, Clemson/NC St. loser, Florida, TCU, Arizona St, Texas, St. John's, Creighton, Temple, Belmont, Alabama, Us. What I worry about is that there's 3 one-bid conferences that have legit potential for a bid steal, starting with Wofford tonight against UNCG. Also, the Pac 12 is very unpredictable, and while Washington is their only "lock" team, I think it's a 50/50 shot at best they win the tournament so there goes another bid whether it's to Arizona State or someone else. Then the A10 is currently only projected as a 1 bid league with VCU as a "lock", but given the history of that league tournament I wouldn't be surprised to Dayton, Davidson, or even URI make a run and potentially win the title. So all that being said, the 4-5 open spots might be down to 1-2 at the end of the week, and given the list of teams vying for them and the opportunities they'll have, I know only a win against Seton Hall isn't enough, and I'm not even sold 2 wins would be good enough either unless every other team that is ahead of us bows out early in their tournaments. To me the odds of all those teams losing early is probably lower than us winning 3 games. But it's fun to even be given ourselves a chance to dream this late in March nonetheless... Yes, we've got a narrow path. I'd add Lipscomb, St. Mary's, and Furman to your list of possibilities. We just have no idea how the Committee is going to use NET -- and all three have rankings significantly higher than ours (and other factors in their favor). We probably are ahead of all of them....but it's conceivable we aren't. Anyway, Lunardi's up-to-date bracket is up, and he has us as the sixth team out right now. Lunardi has Ohio St., Indiana, Clemson, and NC State all ahead of us right now. The challenge is that the Seton Hall win wouldn't be that great of a win statistically speaking (it would be Tier 2 -- they're 62 right now). If Indiana and Clemson (just for example) lose their first round games and we beat SH but lose to Marquette, does that one win over SH move us ahead of both of them? Maybe. And the same is true for all the other teams you reference still in action. Said differently: all of these teams are going to lose only one more game, and it's likely to be to at least a decent team. How much do they drop? And remember, it's not like Marquette is Duke. They're 29th in NET right now. The bottom line is that even if everything goes exactly right from this point onward, there's no way we'd wake up on Friday morning thinking that we're safe. Given that one or two of the teams above is likely to go on a run of their own (or, as you note, there'll be a bid-stealer along the way), I (like you) fear that we would wake up on Saturday morning after a big Friday night win and not be safe. One quibble with this analysis. I would reorient to say that the losers of IU/OSU and Clemson/NC St. are out. The winners are then in competition with the rest of the bubble teams for few remaining bids. If they go on to lose their next game, they are by no means locks to make it. Beating Seton Hall and advancing farther than both Creighton and SJU seems to be a prerequisite for a Hoya bid.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 11, 2019 10:15:05 GMT -5
Furman and Belmont can't lose but they can't improve either. We beat Seton Hall and we will pass them. I've convinced myself that if we win two we are in. There are enough games between bubble teams that if we take care of business we will pass the losers. Ohio State/Indiana, Xavier/Creighton, NC State/Clemson not to mention St John's.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 11, 2019 10:20:17 GMT -5
I would not that while NET is surely going to be a factor, even under the old RPI, the committee frequently took lower RPI teams over higher ones, but generally not at the extremes. In other words, you might take a 40 over a 35, but very rare to have an 80 over a 50.
That said, as of 2016, the lowest RPI to ever get an at large bid was USC with 67 in 2011. The next two lowest were 64 (Marquette in 2011), and NC State (2005) and Stanford (2007) at 63.
It'll take at least two wins to get our NET into those ranges, I think. Under old style RPI, we are only at 78 at the moment, 76 in NET.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 11, 2019 10:27:06 GMT -5
We need two wins and we need Marquette to be one of them. Easiest path works against us now. If we beat Seton Hall and then beat DePaul then we have to win a 3rd game.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 11, 2019 11:12:05 GMT -5
I would not that while NET is surely going to be a factor, even under the old RPI, the committee frequently took lower RPI teams over higher ones, but generally not at the extremes. In other words, you might take a 40 over a 35, but very rare to have an 80 over a 50. That said, as of 2016, the lowest RPI to ever get an at large bid was USC with 67 in 2011. The next two lowest were 64 (Marquette in 2011), and NC State (2005) and Stanford (2007) at 63. It'll take at least two wins to get our NET into those ranges, I think. Under old style RPI, we are only at 78 at the moment, 76 in NET. Unfortunately, given that the Marquette win only moved the Hoyas from NET 78 to NET 76, I don't know that the Hoyas can get their NET into the 60's this week.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 11, 2019 11:20:40 GMT -5
We need two wins and we need Marquette to be one of them. Easiest path works against us now. If we beat Seton Hall and then beat DePaul then we have to win a 3rd game. I’d much rather take my chances with the easiest path to Saturday and say Villanova, then hope and pray for an at large bid because we beat Seton Hall and Marquette. The odds of beating Nova in the final are prob 35-40%, which in my mind is still higher than our at large chances with two wins. You have to realize that all the other bubble teams, many of who sit ahead of us currently, will have equal if not better opportunities to boost their metrics. Like Indiana beating a fading Ohio St team is technically a better win than us beating Seton Hall and actually closer to what another Marquette win would be. Same thing with NC State over Clemson. The BE for better or worse has weaker metrics and as a result beating up on each other has just ensured we all stay in the 30-80 range. While in the ACC, B12, and B10 they had favorable ratings from the OOC schedule that become a circular reference, as when their teams beat each other the wins are “good” and the losses aren’t “bad”, and everuone’s ratings remain good. Last year the BE enjoyed that phenomenon and we had 7 teams on. Unfortunately it’s just not the case this year.
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CTHoya08
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Post by CTHoya08 on Mar 11, 2019 11:35:00 GMT -5
Agreed. Beating Seton Hall and Marquette might be enough, but we can't be sure. I'd rather have the easiest possible path to winning the BET.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 11, 2019 11:35:05 GMT -5
We need two wins and we need Marquette to be one of them. Easiest path works against us now. If we beat Seton Hall and then beat DePaul then we have to win a 3rd game. I think beating Hall and SJU gets us in too. Hard to take Hall or SJU and not Georgetown under those circumstances. We'd have gone 2-1 against both teams head to head.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 11, 2019 11:49:35 GMT -5
I would not that while NET is surely going to be a factor, even under the old RPI, the committee frequently took lower RPI teams over higher ones, but generally not at the extremes. In other words, you might take a 40 over a 35, but very rare to have an 80 over a 50. That said, as of 2016, the lowest RPI to ever get an at large bid was USC with 67 in 2011. The next two lowest were 64 (Marquette in 2011), and NC State (2005) and Stanford (2007) at 63. It'll take at least two wins to get our NET into those ranges, I think. Under old style RPI, we are only at 78 at the moment, 76 in NET. Unfortunately, given that the Marquette win only moved the Hoyas from NET 78 to NET 76, I don't know that the Hoyas can get their NET into the 60's this week. Agreed. Obviously, winning takes precedence, but actually winning one of these going away would be big too. Big for the eye test. And big for our Pomeroy rating (and for the portion of the NET where efficiency counts and margin of victory isn't capped). Only two of our BE wins are by over ten points. Heck only four of our wins ALL YEAR are by more than ten points!!
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 11, 2019 11:58:36 GMT -5
The problem with easiest path is that you have to win three games. Every Big East game is a dogfight and even against DePaul we would barely be a favorite on a neutral court. A win over them wouldn't do anything for the resume and a loss would end all hope. You have to factor that potential loss to DePaul into the odds.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 11, 2019 11:59:41 GMT -5
The problem with easiest path is that you have to win three games. Every Big East game is a dogfight and even against DePaul we would barely be a favorite on a neutral court. A win over them wouldn't do anything for the resume and a loss would end all hope. You have to factor that potential loss to DePaul into the odds. If we lose Friday we have <5% chance to make it. So it won’t matter who we lose to.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 11, 2019 12:07:17 GMT -5
Unfortunately, given that the Marquette win only moved the Hoyas from NET 78 to NET 76, I don't know that the Hoyas can get their NET into the 60's this week. Agreed. Obviously, winning takes precedence, but actually winning one of these going away would be big too. Big for the eye test. And big for our Pomeroy rating (and for the portion of the NET where efficiency counts and margin of victory isn't capped). Only two of our BE wins are by over ten points. Heck only four of our wins ALL YEAR are by more than ten points!! I wonder how much the close wins have hurt our NET ranking. After winning Q1 game on the road resulted in just a 2 spot move, I cannot make any sense of NET anyway. The Hoyas need to play their way in just like they did on Saturday with regard to bypassing the BET 1st round. You cannot hope for favorable outcomes, you can only focus on winning your games. There is nothing I see in the BE this season that says the Hoyas cannot win the BET. Is it improbable, heck yeah, but I think that is the most realistic path to an NCAA berth.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 11, 2019 12:13:43 GMT -5
That is true, we have to win two. But a win against Marquette gives us a decent chance of getting in even if we lose on saturday. A win against DePaul and we would HAVE to win the next game.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 11, 2019 12:18:37 GMT -5
NET movement the past 7 days also illustrates how damaging that Depaul loss was. We dropped 7 spots from 72 to 79 because of that 32 point blowout, even despite the fact it was a Q2 road game. I know scoring margin is capped at 10, but efficiency isn't. Had we at least made an effort in the 2nd half to keep it respectable, our NET may have shifted upwards a bit.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 11, 2019 12:40:12 GMT -5
I guess I figure that if NET rankings end up mattering, and I suppose there is still a good chance they will, then we were never that close, honestly.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 11, 2019 12:45:13 GMT -5
I would not that while NET is surely going to be a factor, even under the old RPI, the committee frequently took lower RPI teams over higher ones, but generally not at the extremes. In other words, you might take a 40 over a 35, but very rare to have an 80 over a 50. That said, as of 2016, the lowest RPI to ever get an at large bid was USC with 67 in 2011. The next two lowest were 64 (Marquette in 2011), and NC State (2005) and Stanford (2007) at 63. It'll take at least two wins to get our NET into those ranges, I think. Under old style RPI, we are only at 78 at the moment, 76 in NET. Even under the RPI, this year has been really odd. If you look at some of the teams right on the bubble, they are in the 50-60-70s in the RPI. Texas - 61, Ohio St - 72, Florida -67, Indiana - 85!. FWIW, as much as the NET has gotten a bad rap, it's also because there are a lot of crappy teams in basketball this year.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 11, 2019 13:54:14 GMT -5
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 11, 2019 14:06:45 GMT -5
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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 11, 2019 16:46:06 GMT -5
What does Player and coach availability even mean? Would JT Jr's teams be punished for the closed nature of the program?
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 11, 2019 16:47:17 GMT -5
What does Player and coach availability even mean? Would JT Jr's teams be punished for the closed nature of the program? I read it as referring to injuries/suspensions.
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