daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 10, 2019 18:41:21 GMT -5
UNCG up early against Furman. I think that’s ideal for bubble hopefuls. 17-2 run by Furman puts them up 9. UNCG is done with a loss, but I wasn’t that worried about them. Furman making the final is not ideal because a good loss to Wofford in the final prob has them as one of the final teams in despite just the one W1 win. They’ve had a great year so I can’t totally be upset if they do get in. If not us, I’d rather see them in than Texas or OSU.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 10, 2019 19:04:09 GMT -5
UNCG up 7 after a 12-0 run! If they can win this would cap an ideal day for our bubble hopes with Liberty winning, OSU losing, Wofford winning, and potentially Furman losing.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 10, 2019 19:35:52 GMT -5
Furman loses!
Our long shot odds went from something like 10% to 15% after today’s favorable results. Need Wofford tomorrow to win now.
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Massholya
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Post by Massholya on Mar 10, 2019 20:07:32 GMT -5
Setting ourselves up for Depaul disappointment.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 10, 2019 20:15:30 GMT -5
I have no expectations for anything. To me it’s 3 wins or NIT. Two wins there’s a shot, but it’s dependent on way too many other outcomes.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 10, 2019 20:33:49 GMT -5
Matrix has us as the 6th team out ahead of Furman (who is now done) and UNCG, but behind Indiana (won today). Agree that Belmont is probably out and Toledo has no Q1 wins, so it'd be hard to see us at anything less than the first four out going into Thursday barring bid stealing.
Seton Hall Q2 win would keep us in the discussion, but definitely need another Q1 win vs Marquette on Friday in order to leap enough teams and sneak in.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 10, 2019 20:41:42 GMT -5
Matrix has us as the 6th team out ahead of Furman (who is now done) and UNCG, but behind Indiana (won today). Agree that Belmont is probably out and Toledo has no Q1 wins, so it'd be hard to see us at anything less than the first four out going into Thursday barring bid stealing. Seton Hall Q2 win would keep us in the discussion, but definitely need another Q1 win vs Marquette on Friday in order to leap enough teams and sneak in. I think we are hoping to steal the spot of Texas, OSU, Florida, Clemson/NC St, St Johns, or ASU That being said so is Indiana, Creighton, Temple, Alabama, and Belmont.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 10, 2019 20:45:43 GMT -5
Matrix has us as the 6th team out ahead of Furman (who is now done) and UNCG, but behind Indiana (won today). Agree that Belmont is probably out and Toledo has no Q1 wins, so it'd be hard to see us at anything less than the first four out going into Thursday barring bid stealing. Seton Hall Q2 win would keep us in the discussion, but definitely need another Q1 win vs Marquette on Friday in order to leap enough teams and sneak in. I think we are hoping to steal the spot of Texas, OSU, Florida, Clemson/NC St, St Johns, or ASU That being said so is Indiana, Creighton, Temple, Alabama, and Belmont. The Ohio St. loss was damaging today (would have been nicer if Wisconsin just blew them out). I don't think the committee could seriously consider a .500 Texas team that loses early in the B12 tourney, so that's the likeliest spot to open other than the Clemson/NCSU loser.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 10, 2019 21:52:40 GMT -5
Before we take the floor on Thursday:
Wofford vs. UNCG: need a Wofford win to avoid a bid stealer St. Mary's vs. San Diego: faint hopes still rely on a win vs. Gonzaga in the WCC final Clemson vs. NC St.: loser is likely out Indiana vs. Ohio St.: loser is likely out Kansas vs. Texas: Texas loss ends them TCU vs. Oklahoma St.: TCU loss puts them very close to the cut line, possibly out Butler vs. Providence: need Prov to keep our Q1 road win vs. them with a win Creighton vs. Xavier: probably prefer a Xavier win to knock Creighton below us in the BE pecking order Florida vs. Arkansas: Florida loss ends them Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Alabama loss ends them
SJU-Depaul is a weird one. If you believe the Johnnies are safe, then you probably root for them to win to keep our road win against them a Q1 win. If you think they're in danger with a loss, then you probably want them to lose to potentially create another spot in the field. Hard to say.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 10, 2019 21:54:14 GMT -5
St Johns is in way more trouble than people think. The old "conference record doesn't matter" might be true-ish but their claim to fame was "big wins." Well they have 10 q1/q2 wins...fewer than both Seton Hall and Georgetown ahead of them in the standings.
Someone is winning the Creighton-Xavier as well. So St Johns has been assumed in for awhile but it's likely up for grabs.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 10, 2019 22:36:33 GMT -5
All the other stuff is interesting. We need 21 wins. We haven’t won 3 BE games in a row and would have to do it against Quette, the Hall, and likely Quette again. We can do it, but it would be because we are playing better ball than we ever have.
Did the freshman learn that they can’t really rely on Jessie and that this in fact their team? I hope so.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 11, 2019 6:54:46 GMT -5
All the other stuff is interesting. We need 21 wins. We haven’t won 3 BE games in a row and would have to do it against Quette, the Hall, and likely Quette again. We can do it, but it would be because we are playing better ball than we ever have. Did the freshman learn that they can’t really rely on Jessie and that this in fact their team? I hope so. I thought before the DePaul game the the Hoyas needed to win 2 of the next 3 games to get in, and I still think that is true. I never imagined that they would lose to DePaul and beat Marquette, but that is the way it went. If they can beat Seton Hall (another tourney team) on Thursday it think it will be tough to keep them out. They would have won 4 games against tourney teams in the last 3 weeks (Nova, ,Marquette and Seton Hall twice). I realize they have some other factors (strength of schedule) working against them, but I think they will have done enough to sneak in. If they win Thursday and lose Friday it will make the selection show nerve wracking, but I think they find a way into the field. Fingers crossed!!!
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 11, 2019 7:18:14 GMT -5
I really think there's only 4-5 spots available for 12 teams right now:
I think the Ohio St./Indiana, and Clemson/NC State winners are in.
So then it's OSU/IU loser, Clemson/NC St. loser, Florida, TCU, Arizona St, Texas, St. John's, Creighton, Temple, Belmont, Alabama, Us.
What I worry about is that there's 3 one-bid conferences that have legit potential for a bid steal, starting with Wofford tonight against UNCG. Also, the Pac 12 is very unpredictable, and while Washington is their only "lock" team, I think it's a 50/50 shot at best they win the tournament so there goes another bid whether it's to Arizona State or someone else. Then the A10 is currently only projected as a 1 bid league with VCU as a "lock", but given the history of that league tournament I wouldn't be surprised to Dayton, Davidson, or even URI make a run and potentially win the title.
So all that being said, the 4-5 open spots might be down to 1-2 at the end of the week, and given the list of teams vying for them and the opportunities they'll have, I know only a win against Seton Hall isn't enough, and I'm not even sold 2 wins would be good enough either unless every other team that is ahead of us bows out early in their tournaments. To me the odds of all those teams losing early is probably lower than us winning 3 games. But it's fun to even have given ourselves a chance to dream this late in March nonetheless...
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 11, 2019 7:52:28 GMT -5
I really think there's only 4-5 spots available for 12 teams right now: I think the Ohio St./Indiana, and Clemson/NC State winners are in. So then it's OSU/IU loser, Clemson/NC St. loser, Florida, TCU, Arizona St, Texas, St. John's, Creighton, Temple, Belmont, Alabama, Us. What I worry about is that there's 3 one-bid conferences that have legit potential for a bid steal, starting with Wofford tonight against UNCG. Also, the Pac 12 is very unpredictable, and while Washington is their only "lock" team, I think it's a 50/50 shot at best they win the tournament so there goes another bid whether it's to Arizona State or someone else. Then the A10 is currently only projected as a 1 bid league with VCU as a "lock", but given the history of that league tournament I wouldn't be surprised to Dayton, Davidson, or even URI make a run and potentially win the title. So all that being said, the 4-5 open spots might be down to 1-2 at the end of the week, and given the list of teams vying for them and the opportunities they'll have, I know only a win against Seton Hall isn't enough, and I'm not even sold 2 wins would be good enough either unless every other team that is ahead of us bows out early in their tournaments. To me the odds of all those teams losing early is probably lower than us winning 3 games. But it's fun to even be given ourselves a chance to dream this late in March nonetheless... Yes, we've got a narrow path. I'd add Lipscomb, St. Mary's, and Furman to your list of possibilities. We just have no idea how the Committee is going to use NET -- and all three have rankings significantly higher than ours (and other factors in their favor). We probably are ahead of all of them....but it's conceivable we aren't. Anyway, Lunardi's up-to-date bracket is up, and he has us as the sixth team out right now. Lunardi has Ohio St., Indiana, Clemson, and NC State all ahead of us right now. The challenge is that the Seton Hall win wouldn't be that great of a win statistically speaking (it would be Tier 2 -- they're 62 right now). If Indiana and Clemson (just for example) lose their first round games and we beat SH but lose to Marquette, does that one win over SH move us ahead of both of them? Maybe. And the same is true for all the other teams you reference still in action. Said differently: all of these teams are going to lose only one more game, and it's likely to be to at least a decent team. How much do they drop? And remember, it's not like Marquette is Duke. They're 29th in NET right now. The bottom line is that even if everything goes exactly right from this point onward, there's no way we'd wake up on Friday morning thinking that we're safe. Given that one or two of the teams above is likely to go on a run of their own (or, as you note, there'll be a bid-stealer along the way), I (like you) fear that we would wake up on Saturday morning after a big Friday night win and not be safe.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 11, 2019 8:08:36 GMT -5
All the other stuff is interesting. We need 21 wins. We haven’t won 3 BE games in a row and would have to do it against Quette, the Hall, and likely Quette again. We can do it, but it would be because we are playing better ball than we ever have. Did the freshman learn that they can’t really rely on Jessie and that this in fact their team? I hope so. I thought before the DePaul game the the Hoyas needed to win 2 of the next 3 games to get in, and I still think that is true. I never imagined that they would lose to DePaul and beat Marquette, but that is the way it went. If they can beat Seton Hall (another tourney team) on Thursday it think it will be tough to keep them out. They would have won 4 games against tourney teams in the last 3 weeks (Nova, ,Marquette and Seton Hall twice). I realize they have some other factors (strength of schedule) working against them, but I think they will have done enough to sneak in. If they win Thursday and lose Friday it will make the selection show nerve wracking, but I think they find a way into the field. Fingers crossed!!! I think that "should" get us in, too, but the problem is, like others said, there are always bid stealers. Aside from someone unexpected winning a tourney, there are also teams that can play themselves in with more tourney wins than us. What if Creighton, Texas, Indiana, TCU, etc all win 2-3 more games. I think losing to DePaul makes your 2 of 3 prediction a lot different, unfortunately.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 11, 2019 8:09:00 GMT -5
We really, really, really will need the Committee to emphasize Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. That's our one meaningful advantage over basically everyone.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 11, 2019 8:31:34 GMT -5
Palm's latest bracket just released. He's got Furman, UNC-G, and Belmont all ahead of us. Furman and Belmont aren't going to lose another game obviously.
I have a hard time agreeing with his UNC-G placement. But it's another good example of the challenge we face. Wofford is ranked 14th in the NET. UNC-G losing to them is going to be a "better" loss than any loss we can have the rest of the way.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 11, 2019 9:02:58 GMT -5
Palm's latest bracket just released. He's got Furman, UNC-G, and Belmont all ahead of us. Furman and Belmont aren't going to lose another game obviously. I have a hard time agreeing with his UNC-G placement. But it's another good example of the challenge we face. Wofford is ranked 14th in the NET. UNC-G losing to them is going to be a "better" loss than any loss we can have the rest of the way. Yeah, but there is no chance that Furman, UNCG and Wofford are all making the tourney. Furman will be easy to bump off whenever anyone else wins, right? Like others pointed out, I wouldnt sleep on that DePaul-SJU game. If Depaul wins that game, and i think it is very possible, I think SJU is sweating it out for sure.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 11, 2019 9:13:27 GMT -5
We really, really, really will need the Committee to emphasize Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. That's our one meaningful advantage over basically everyone. Road wins too. We have 5
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 11, 2019 10:05:09 GMT -5
If we win Thursday it will really come down to what the NCAA committee values more, computer rankings, or actual Q1/Q2 and road win results. The mock 16 the committee did last month gives us a little bit of hope. Marquette, for example, was a 3-seed despite a NET ranking in the 20s at that time.
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