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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 27, 2019 23:26:27 GMT -5
Texas blows a 6 point lead with 1:45 left in OT to lose by 1. Florida avoids the bad loss.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 28, 2019 0:07:46 GMT -5
Texas is in a very weird spot. They are without their best layer in Kerwin Roach who was suspended indefinitely and have 3 very tough games left vs Iowa State, at Texas Tech, and vs TCU. They could end the season under .500. Don't know what to think about them. Georgetown just needs to take care of business.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 9:20:11 GMT -5
GU moves from 11th out to 10th out on the Matrix. Important to keep in mind the Matrix only gives credit for appearances in the brackets. From an anecdotal standpoint, I've seen us appear far more often in the First Four Out than the Next Four Out or even unlisted. Those results won't show in the Matrix.
Thursday's bubble games include:
7th to last team in: Arizona St. at Oregon (a loss puts them in the First Four and maybe close to the cut line) 4th to last team in: Minnesota at Northwestern (would be damaging loss that probably knocks them out of the field) 12 seed (AQ): Belmont at UT Martin (a loss here clinches the OVC as a 1-bid league if it hasn't already, but if they and Murray St. go undefeated till the title game, bubble teams will be sweating) 3rd team out: St. Mary's vs. Portland (any non-Gonzaga missteps end their at-large hopes) 5th team out: UNC Greensboro at The Citadel (a bad loss here takes them out of at-large consideration for sure) 6th team out: Nebraska at Michigan (not a whole lot of meat to Nebraska's profile, just wins at Clemson and Indiana) 8th team out: San Francisco vs. San Diego (see St. Mary's)
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 28, 2019 9:54:45 GMT -5
Gtown seems to have a good quad 1 record relative to bubble peers. We don't really have the signature win(s) though so Marquette would add to that. Seton Hall split is a must as a fellow bubble team.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 28, 2019 10:20:18 GMT -5
Setting NET/KenPom aside, it will be very helpful to finish in 3rd or 4th place, 1+ games ahead of Seton Hall and Butler. Just makes it more difficult for the selection committee to put one of them in over us, especially if we split with both.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Feb 28, 2019 10:29:53 GMT -5
I think the Hoyas need to win 2 of the next 3 games and then at least one BET game. That puts them on the bubble, and probably in a pretty good spot on the bubble for the NCAA's, especially if one of the two regular season wins is against Marquette. If they found a way to win more games than that, they should be all set to get into the Big Dance. As long as they don't lose all three of the regular season games and then the first BET game, they should be all set for a NIT bid now.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2019 10:32:03 GMT -5
Gtown seems to have a good quad 1 record relative to bubble peers. We don't really have the signature win(s) though so Marquette would add to that. Seton Hall split is a must as a fellow bubble team. Yeah, I’m trying to be optimistic but I just don’t see it with this team. I think we’ve improved and winning 8 games and maybe 1 BET game would be tremendous, but these last 3 games are the types of games we have lost consitently for years. Hope I am wrong.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 28, 2019 10:36:47 GMT -5
Let's get a win against Seton Hall and then I'll start considering our NCAA resume for the Big Dance. This team has won back-to-back league games just once this season. Until we string two or three consecutive wins together, I think NCAA at-large bid dreams are premature.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 28, 2019 10:44:04 GMT -5
Let's get a win against Seton Hall and then I'll start considering our NCAA resume for the Big Dance. This team has won back-to-back league games just once this season. Until we string two or three consecutive wins together, I think NCAA at-large bid dreams are premature. Tomorrow is March. If you aren't considering it a possibility now (and dreaming about it), then that would mean there isn't any hope for an at-large bid. Yes, there's work to do, but it doesn't mean the opportunity (and dream) isn't still there at the 1st of March (which is a helluva lot better than we thought we'd be starting 3 freshmen and a sophomore, coming off a .500 season and losing MD).
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Feb 28, 2019 10:46:22 GMT -5
Win Saturday, and we will be in the majority of brackets heading into the last week of the season.
Exceeding my expectations for this season.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 28, 2019 10:47:19 GMT -5
NET ranking up to 71 from 74 with the DePaul win.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 28, 2019 11:33:51 GMT -5
Let's get a win against Seton Hall and then I'll start considering our NCAA resume for the Big Dance. This team has won back-to-back league games just once this season. Until we string two or three consecutive wins together, I think NCAA at-large bid dreams are premature. Tomorrow is March. If you aren't considering it a possibility now (and dreaming about it), then that would mean there isn't any hope for an at-large bid. Yes, there's work to do, but it doesn't mean the opportunity (and dream) isn't still there at the 1st of March (which is a helluva lot better than we thought we'd be starting 3 freshmen and a sophomore, coming off a .500 season and losing MD). Well, then, I guess I view it as being no hope for an at-large bid, and I'm certainly not dreaming about it. I'm also not viewing this season as a failure if we don't get a bid to the NCAA tournament. I've said this before, and I'll say it again...this team is a lot of fun to watch, and we're probably one season away from really being a huge problem for other teams. I'm very happy with the three freshmen, and I think they're going to be super contributors next season. I just think there's been too much ground to make up, and too much inconsistency, to realistically believe that this team is Big Dance worthy. The expectations for next season will rightfully be sky high. Maybe I'm showing my age here. I'm not cynical. I'm a cheerful skeptic.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2019 12:28:17 GMT -5
Tomorrow is March. If you aren't considering it a possibility now (and dreaming about it), then that would mean there isn't any hope for an at-large bid. Yes, there's work to do, but it doesn't mean the opportunity (and dream) isn't still there at the 1st of March (which is a helluva lot better than we thought we'd be starting 3 freshmen and a sophomore, coming off a .500 season and losing MD). Well, then, I guess I view it as being no hope for an at-large bid, and I'm certainly not dreaming about it. I'm also not viewing this season as a failure if we don't get a bid to the NCAA tournament. I've said this before, and I'll say it again...this team is a lot of fun to watch, and we're probably one season away from really being a huge problem for other teams. I'm very happy with the three freshmen, and I think they're going to be super contributors next season. I just think there's been too much ground to make up, and too much inconsistency, to realistically believe that this team is Big Dance worthy. The expectations for next season will rightfully be sky high. Maybe I'm showing my age here. I'm not cynical. I'm a cheerful skeptic. Yes. This is how I see it, too. Although I think the bubble is ridiculously soft, it’s more about how I view our consistency.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 28, 2019 13:05:48 GMT -5
I think a lot of the skepticism about our chances comes from the fact we don't really pass the eye test for a typical "NCAA Tournament caliber" team. Thing is, a lot of the other bubble teams don't either and right now the resume is good enough to be in the discussion. The fact that we are currently in the discussion can't really be argued right now. How seriously we'll be involved in the discussion in 2-1/2 weeks is a totally different matter. Hard to say what exactly we need to do to get in (other than win the BET) without knowing what else plays out. We do know Saturday is a big game for a number of reasons and to playing for something other than pride is a step in the right direction.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2019 14:56:55 GMT -5
I think a lot of the skepticism about our chances comes from the fact we don't really pass the eye test for a typical "NCAA Tournament caliber" team. Thing is, a lot of the other bubble teams don't either and right now the resume is good enough to be in the discussion. The fact that we are currently in the discussion can't really be argued right now. How seriously we'll be involved in the discussion in 2-1/2 weeks is a totally different matter. Hard to say what exactly we need to do to get in (other than win the BET) without knowing what else plays out. We do know Saturday is a big game for a number of reasons and to playing for something other than pride is a step in the right direction. I think we are worse than other bubble teams, but Im not going to argue about it forever. We are 79 in kenpom, and in the 70s in the NET and rpi, I think. Maybe even worse. We really shouldnt even be sniffing the tournament. But, I concede that many predictors put us close - personally, i think that is because of committee bias in our favor. The committee just tends to favor the top 6 conferences and right now, we are in 4th place in the BE. That stands for something. I'll gladly take it, but you can understand the skepticism. To me, this isnt like that weird year where we were 1 DePaul win from makin it in. We were a top 50 or team that year.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 28, 2019 16:46:41 GMT -5
One other factor to consider as we endure Bubble Watch 2019: the Hoyas have, unfortunately, underperformed in the NCAA tournament over the past decade-plus, relative to the seed awarded. I would not be surprised if the selection committee considers that track record when making its final decisions as to who's in and who's out.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 28, 2019 18:24:09 GMT -5
One other factor to consider as we endure Bubble Watch 2019: the Hoyas have, unfortunately, underperformed in the NCAA tournament over the past decade-plus, relative to the seed awarded. I would not be surprised if the selection committee considers that track record when making its final decisions as to who's in and who's out. From what they say, no team is looked upon by their name and how they have performed previously. I don't understand why that would be something that they consider, they should and I think do look at the most qualified teams, not who was bad 5+ years ago.
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HoyaDr
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Post by HoyaDr on Feb 28, 2019 18:25:19 GMT -5
One other factor to consider as we endure Bubble Watch 2019: the Hoyas have, unfortunately, underperformed in the NCAA tournament over the past decade-plus, relative to the seed awarded. I would not be surprised if the selection committee considers that track record when making its final decisions as to who's in and who's out. Patrick Ewing is not JT3 (no disrespect). We have no idea how his teams would perform relative to their seed because it's just his second year with the program. Some would argue his team this year has already exceeded expectations since they are in the bubble discussion and they are hopefully going to finish better than the projected 9th place in the BE. So I hope that isn't taken into consideration.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 28, 2019 18:59:08 GMT -5
One other factor to consider as we endure Bubble Watch 2019: the Hoyas have, unfortunately, underperformed in the NCAA tournament over the past decade-plus, relative to the seed awarded. I would not be surprised if the selection committee considers that track record when making its final decisions as to who's in and who's out. Patrick Ewing is not JT3 (no disrespect). We have no idea how his teams would perform relative to their seed because it's just his second year with the program. Some would argue his team this year has already exceeded expectations since they are in the bubble discussion and they are hopefully going to finish better than the projected 9th place in the BE. So I hope that isn't taken into consideration. I think we have historically overpeformed when seeded 9 or lower in the NCAAs correct? Maybe it’s a wash,
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kghoya
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Post by kghoya on Mar 1, 2019 0:18:38 GMT -5
One other factor to consider as we endure Bubble Watch 2019: the Hoyas have, unfortunately, underperformed in the NCAA tournament over the past decade-plus, relative to the seed awarded. I would not be surprised if the selection committee considers that track record when making its final decisions as to who's in and who's out. Patrick Ewing is not JT3 (no disrespect). We have no idea how his teams would perform relative to their seed because it's just his second year with the program. Some would argue his team this year has already exceeded expectations since they are in the bubble discussion and they are hopefully going to finish better than the projected 9th place in the BE. So I hope that isn't taken into consideration. Georgetown was picked 7th in the pre season coaches poll
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