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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 22, 2019 11:11:55 GMT -5
My realistic take is that 10-8 plus 1 BET win gets us in. Let’s see if it happens first. At the very least that puts us near bubble, depending on how other teams shake out and exactly how many at large bids there really are following all the conference tournaments. So, I agree! Either way, a 10-8 record with 1 BET win would be a great outcome for the season.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 22, 2019 11:40:00 GMT -5
Just trying to provide a realistic take is all. It's just easy to forget that as weak as the bubble might be, a lot of other teams have positive factors going for them too (in this case, many bubble teams don't have losses like LMU and SMU - in the end those losses will hurt us a lot more than any Big East home loss unless we lose to DePaul). I know you're just joking, but sometimes providing a realistic take is taken by some as being negative, when in reality, I would be ecstatic if we made the NCAA tournament in any capacity. And as I've said before, even the NIT would be a good accomplishment for this group and Ewing in his second year. I think it’s extremely realistic that we aren’t on the Bubble. ESPN doesn’t even mention us and that’s completely fair. Win a few more games and we deserve to be in the conversation, but we didn’t exactly cover ourselves in glory by losing to a crappy team like SMU. For the record, they are barely .500. It's true that it's one of our two worst losses. It's also true that it's probably not as bad as we make it out to be. SMU is 108th in the NET (LMU is 155th). Some the other "just outs" in ESPN's bracket: South Carolina lost to Stony Brook (150th), and Wyoming (319th) Saint Mary's lost to Harvard (132nd), Western Kentucky (130th), and Pepperdine (171st) San Francisco lost to UCSB (161st), and UCSD (105th) Lipscomb lost to FGCU (229th) Belmont lost to Green Bay (213th), and Jacksonville State x2 (127th) Utah State lost to San Diego State (135th) Then you look at the other teams that are on the right side of the bubble. NC State, for example, is considered "in" at this point, but they've beaten 4 total teams with winning records (Auburn 17-8, Clemson 15-11, Syracuse 18-8, Boston College 13-12) with a loss to Wake Forest (185th).
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gunny
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Post by gunny on Feb 22, 2019 12:07:14 GMT -5
Somehow our NET ranking is now 69 (from 71) for the games through February 21, 2019. Creighton is 56.
There also some things outside of our control that need to happen. I am mostly talking about bids to conferences from the MAC (Buffalo), Southern (Wofford), WCC (Gonzaga) and MWC (Nevada). We need those teams to win their conference tournaments. If they don't then those teams will take bids from Power 5 and Big East schools.
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SDHoya
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Post by SDHoya on Feb 22, 2019 12:24:34 GMT -5
I think it’s extremely realistic that we aren’t on the Bubble. ESPN doesn’t even mention us and that’s completely fair. Win a few more games and we deserve to be in the conversation, but we didn’t exactly cover ourselves in glory by losing to a crappy team like SMU. For the record, they are barely .500. It's true that it's one of our two worst losses. It's also true that it's probably not as bad as we make it out to be. SMU is 108th in the NET (LMU is 155th). Some the other "just outs" in ESPN's bracket: South Carolina lost to Stony Brook (150th), and Wyoming (319th) Saint Mary's lost to Harvard (132nd), Western Kentucky (130th), and Pepperdine (171st) San Francisco lost to UCSB (161st), and UCSD (105th) Lipscomb lost to FGCU (229th) Belmont lost to Green Bay (213th), and Jacksonville State x2 (127th) Utah State lost to San Diego State (135th) Then you look at the other teams that are on the right side of the bubble. NC State, for example, is considered "in" at this point, but they've beaten 4 total teams with winning records (Auburn 17-8, Clemson 15-11, Syracuse 18-8, Boston College 13-12) with a loss to Wake Forest (185th). Small correction—San Francisco lost to USD (a small catholic school that competes in the West Coast Conference), not UCSD (a large state research institution which is DII, although in the process of moving to DI).
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 22, 2019 12:41:49 GMT -5
Yeah, 8-7 in conference would get us seriously back in the mix again (and our NET and KenPom ratings would probably rise into the low 60s/High 50s). Until then, we remain on the outskirts of Hope and a Prayer Town, peering longingly into the village of dancers.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 22, 2019 12:45:08 GMT -5
I think it’s extremely realistic that we aren’t on the Bubble. ESPN doesn’t even mention us and that’s completely fair. Win a few more games and we deserve to be in the conversation, but we didn’t exactly cover ourselves in glory by losing to a crappy team like SMU. For the record, they are barely .500. It's true that it's one of our two worst losses. It's also true that it's probably not as bad as we make it out to be. SMU is 108th in the NET (LMU is 155th). Some the other "just outs" in ESPN's bracket: South Carolina lost to Stony Brook (150th), and Wyoming (319th) Saint Mary's lost to Harvard (132nd), Western Kentucky (130th), and Pepperdine (171st) San Francisco lost to UCSB (161st), and UCSD (105th) Lipscomb lost to FGCU (229th) Belmont lost to Green Bay (213th), and Jacksonville State x2 (127th) Utah State lost to San Diego State (135th) Then you look at the other teams that are on the right side of the bubble. NC State, for example, is considered "in" at this point, but they've beaten 4 total teams with winning records (Auburn 17-8, Clemson 15-11, Syracuse 18-8, Boston College 13-12) with a loss to Wake Forest (185th). I hear you. I said above that the bubble is soft. But, I guess I still disagree that we are on the bubble YET. Like others said, let's revisit after the next 2 games.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 22, 2019 12:53:34 GMT -5
The bubble is as fluid as ever. I would argue that we are currently on the bubble but it's very reasonable to think we aren't. But as mentioned, it doesn't particularly matter because the next 5 games + BET will ultimately determine our fate. The NIT would be a successful season and the fact we are having this conversation 23 days before Selection Sunday is a breath of fresh air.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 22, 2019 12:57:52 GMT -5
One inescapable flaw in the forward-looking NCAA bubble analyses is that they can't take into account yet the surprise conference tournament winners that earn an automatic bid when they would not have qualified otherwise.
There are usually 1-2 each year, and those teams knock a couple of the "last 4 in" category into the dreaded "first 4 out" category.
So, it can be a little tougher for the fringe teams than the current projections show.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 22, 2019 13:04:55 GMT -5
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 22, 2019 13:07:49 GMT -5
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 22, 2019 13:12:38 GMT -5
An extremely small (and probably pointless) quibble with this was the inclusion of Davidson (0 Quad 1 wins, 3 Quad 3 losses and a worse SOS than the Hoyas) and not us. A nice few paragraphs though on the opportunities to play our way in.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Feb 22, 2019 13:24:46 GMT -5
One inescapable flaw in the forward-looking NCAA bubble analyses is that they can't take into account yet the surprise conference tournament winners that earn an automatic bid when they would not have qualified otherwise. There are usually 1-2 each year, and those teams knock a couple of the "last 4 in" category into the dreaded "first 4 out" category. So, it can be a little tougher for the fringe teams than the current projections show. It will be really tough for those teams when our BET winner places someone on the outside looking in. More than likely though, that would just be someone from our own conference.
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hoyas315
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Post by hoyas315 on Feb 22, 2019 15:21:48 GMT -5
Hoyas up to #69
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 22, 2019 15:36:01 GMT -5
Hoyas have 4 Quadrant 1 wins, and 8 total Quadrant 1-2 wins, both of which are on the high end for bubble teams.
The upcoming games include -2 quadrant 1 games (@creighton, @marquette) -2 quadrant 2 games (SHU, @depaul) -1 quadrant 3 game (DePaul)
Win 3 out of 5 (as long as we don't lose at home next Wednesday), and we'll be about where we are now, maybe slightly better positioned, since we'd have 4-5 Q1 wins, 10 Q1+2 wins, and a mid-60s NET. Win 4 out of 5 (or go 3-2 while winning one game in the BET) and we'd be looking at the right side of the bubble, I think, barring more than a couple of upsets in small conference tourneys.
At this point, I'm not sure if I'd be more interested in the play-in game in Dayton or a 1-seed in the NIT (actually, I do know). But either way, it's nice to be able to have this conversation in late February for the first time in forever.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2019 15:36:10 GMT -5
Somehow our NET ranking is now 69 (from 71) for the games through February 21, 2019. Creighton is 56. There also some things outside of our control that need to happen. I am mostly talking about bids to conferences from the MAC (Buffalo), Southern (Wofford), WCC (Gonzaga) and MWC (Nevada). We need those teams to win their conference tournaments. If they don't then those teams will take bids from Power 5 and Big East schools. Belmont could be an at-large if they win out except for their conference tourney final, too. Pac-12 probably will have a bid stealer too. With a win on Saturday so long as the NET rises at least to 65, there's a legitimate shot to make the NCAA. A-10 always has two bids, I'd be shocked to see any less. I'm fully expecting 3 bid stealers this year with my most likely being the MAC- Buffalo has been on and off and there are some solid team in that conference SoCon- Wofford has to lose at some point but, they are an excellent team and fun to watch when they are on, MWC- Nevada looks very vulnerable but also could beat anyone at points, A-10 I'm 80% sure will have one.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2019 15:40:04 GMT -5
Hoyas have 4 Quadrant 1 wins, and 8 total Quadrant 1-2 wins, both of which are on the high end for bubble teams. The upcoming games include -2 quadrant 1 games (@creighton, @marquette) -2 quadrant 2 games (SHU, @depaul) -1 quadrant 3 game (DePaul) Win 3 out of 5 (as long as we don't lose at home next Wednesday), and we'll be about where we are now, maybe slightly better positioned, since we'd have 4-5 Q1 wins, 10 Q1+2 wins, and a mid-60s NET. Win 4 out of 5 (or go 3-2 while winning one game in the BET) and we'd be looking at the right side of the bubble, I think, barring more than a couple of upsets in small conference tourneys. At this point, I'm not sure if I'd be more interested in the play-in game in Dayton or a 1-seed in the NIT (actually, I do know). But either way, it's nice to be able to have this conversation in late February for the first time in forever. I'd agree if the NET wasn't where it is now. That would need to be in the low 50's for that to be possible. Also, some teams have to rise in the quadrant system like Illinois gaining 4 ranks or Providence holding suit which is unlikely. Need some good fortune for that to be the case.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 22, 2019 15:42:45 GMT -5
It's true that it's one of our two worst losses. It's also true that it's probably not as bad as we make it out to be. SMU is 108th in the NET (LMU is 155th). Some the other "just outs" in ESPN's bracket: South Carolina lost to Stony Brook (150th), and Wyoming (319th) Saint Mary's lost to Harvard (132nd), Western Kentucky (130th), and Pepperdine (171st) San Francisco lost to UCSB (161st), and UCSD (105th) Lipscomb lost to FGCU (229th) Belmont lost to Green Bay (213th), and Jacksonville State x2 (127th) Utah State lost to San Diego State (135th) Then you look at the other teams that are on the right side of the bubble. NC State, for example, is considered "in" at this point, but they've beaten 4 total teams with winning records (Auburn 17-8, Clemson 15-11, Syracuse 18-8, Boston College 13-12) with a loss to Wake Forest (185th). Small correction—San Francisco lost to USD (a small catholic school that competes in the West Coast Conference), not UCSD (a large state research institution which is DII, although in the process of moving to DI). Thanks for the correction
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Post by FromTheBeginning on Feb 22, 2019 16:09:02 GMT -5
To be realistic - we need to win 4 out of our last 5 and not lose to Seton Hall - if we lose any of the Creighton / DePaul games we then have to beat Marquette.
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 22, 2019 16:35:27 GMT -5
To be realistic - we need to win 4 out of our last 5 and not lose to Seton Hall - if we lose any of the Creighton / DePaul games we then have to beat Marquette. And there's the rub. Nothing this team has done this year has given me confidence that they are going to rattle off wins in 4 of 5. On the contrary, based on the season's performance, I can see them losing 2 or 3 that they should win. And I don't mean to be totally negative, since I am relatively happy with the season and what Ewing has been able to do in a short time. Snapping the Nova streak and taking two from Providence, who has had our number, are certainly signs that this program is moving in the right direction. But please please please let this be the last year where we are worried about even being on the bubble. I am so tired of not seeing this team in the NCAAs.
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hoyas315
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Post by hoyas315 on Feb 22, 2019 16:36:29 GMT -5
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