prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jun 27, 2017 8:31:20 GMT -5
I reserve the right to be entirely wrong on the breakdown, since we haven't even started Kenner yet. And then reserve the right to be completely wrong again based on Kenner performances. So true. I'll wait until the day after Midnight Madness to see what our roster finally looks like.
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dchoya72
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Post by dchoya72 on Jun 27, 2017 9:31:11 GMT -5
Where is George Muresan in this mix?
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jun 27, 2017 10:28:05 GMT -5
Where is George Muresan in this mix? He's not, walk-on playing spot minutes at best. His value will during practice.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jun 27, 2017 11:58:57 GMT -5
Where is George Muresan in this mix? He's not, walk-on playing spot minutes at best. His value will during practice. Yep. Obviously, we cannot see Muresan or evaluate him all that much, but I would probably rather spend the smaller amount of minutes on development on Sodom.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jul 11, 2017 13:01:46 GMT -5
Down to 9 healthy scholarship players
Govan Sodom Derrickson Walker Johnson Blair Mosely Mulmore Dickerson
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SSHoya
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"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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Post by SSHoya on Jul 11, 2017 13:10:59 GMT -5
Down to 9 healthy scholarship players Govan Sodom Derrickson Walker Johnson Blair Mosely Mulmore Dickerson I've lowered my expectations accordingly and will give Coach Ewing time to turn the ship around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2017 13:34:55 GMT -5
Post 1st Kenner weekend & Mourning injury news (if true):
Mulmore 25 Jagan 30 Kaleb 25 Derrickson 30 Govan 25
Trey D 23 Blair 12 Walker 20 Sodom 10
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jul 11, 2017 18:15:51 GMT -5
Without P+P, how do we get to 50 points?
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Jul 11, 2017 18:40:18 GMT -5
Without P+P, how do we get to 50 points? It'll happen. No team averaged fewer than 60.4 ppg last year. In fact, here's one scoring scenario (less Mourning, assuming a season lost to injury): Trey Dickerson 14.9 Jessie Govan 14.6 Marcus Derrickson 9.7 Jonathan Mulmore 6.3 Jagan Mosely 6.3 Kaleb Johnson 4.6 Tre Campbell 4.4 Antwan Walker: 3.9 Jahvon Blair: 3.7 Chris Sodom 2.6 George Muresan 1.7 Ramond Hines 1.4 Unfortunately, that was the scoring breakdown for the 2016-17 DePaul Blue Demons, averaging 68.6 ppg.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2017 19:58:11 GMT -5
If you just take the minutes per game I estimated above and multiply by PPM from last year you get:
Mulmore (4.5 ppg) Mosely (6.3) Kaleb (5.4) Derrickson (10.5) Govan (12.0)
Trey D (10.7)
(For these 3 FR, I just gave conservative estimates) Blair (3) Walker (5.5) Sodom (2)
That right there is 60ppg -- without any improvement from ANY of our returning players. I'd bet Marcus, Jagan, Mulmore (and maybe Jessie) all score considerably more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2017 8:43:14 GMT -5
Might as well be pulling numbers out of the clear blue sky. You can't just extrapolate based on estimated increased minutes. Peak and Pryor had a combined usage rate of more than 50% last year. If we just play at a similar pace to last year, that's about 36 possessions per game that have to go to other players.
And as for "How we get to 50?", consider this:
The slowest team in the NCAA last year (St. Mary's) averaged 62.4 possessions per game. The least-efficient team in the NCAA last year (Western Carolina) averaged .847 points per possession.
If we were both the slowest team and also the least efficient that absolutely dreadful team would average 52.8 points per game. And would make us all want to gouge our eyes out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2017 10:13:49 GMT -5
Might as well be pulling numbers out of the clear blue sky. You can't just extrapolate based on estimated increased minutes. Peak and Pryor had a combined usage rate of more than 50% last year. If we just play at a similar pace to last year, that's about 36 possessions per game that have to go to other players. And as for "How we get to 50?", consider this: The slowest team in the NCAA last year (St. Mary's) averaged 62.4 possessions per game. The least-efficient team in the NCAA last year (Western Carolina) averaged .847 points per possession. If we were both the slowest team and also the least efficient that absolutely dreadful team would average 52.8 points per game. And would make us all want to gouge our eyes out. I'm not attempting to estimate stats there (though I was in the MPG post) and don't really feel like discussing the effect of experience vs. increased usage. We're going to be bad offensively unless a couple of guys make some major leaps. I'm just adding a very simplistic argument that even poor offensive players (which is what Mulmore, Mosely, Kaleb were last year - some of the worst in the last 10 years) will fill gaps caused by losses of leading scorers. At least to the point of falling in the regular distribution of team offenses. And again -- that doesn't include any improvement. Bottom line is this... no D1 team averaged less than 60 points per game last year. We won't do that this year, either.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 12, 2017 15:43:41 GMT -5
Someone else already made the point well, but to put it even more simply for those who don't like advanced stats, Pryor and Peak took a lot of or team's shots, and thus, scored a lot. Given their absence, these shots MUST go to other players, and those players will make some percentage of them. They may (and likely will) be less efficient than Pryor and Peak, and shoot badly, but they'll still score points.
Will we be worse than last year? Probably. But points will get scored, even if it's at a less efficient rate.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jul 12, 2017 16:11:59 GMT -5
I've always said even on bad teams someone has to score and don't confuse usage with being good. Just because you are the leading scorer on your team doesn't mean you are good, it just means you are better than your teammates. We will score over 60 and Govan and Derrickson will fill the P + P stats unless Jagan has figured it out and joins those 2 in production.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Jul 13, 2017 13:41:48 GMT -5
My crack at the rotation. Biggest question mark is who plays back up C behind Govan. Obviously pending further additions to the squad/transfers. Starters: PG- Trey Dickerson SG- Jagan Mosely SF- Kaleb Johnson PF- Marcus Derrickson C- Jessie Govan Bench: G: Tre Campbell, Jonathan Mulmore, Jahvon Blair F: Trey Mourning, Antwan Walker Terrible LOL!
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Post by hoyas4lyfe on Jul 28, 2017 14:20:13 GMT -5
PGs: Trey Dickerson, Jonathan Mulmore, Tre Campbell SGs: Jagan Mosely, Jahvon Blair SFs: Kaleb Johnson, Antwan Walker, Jamorko Pickett PFs: Marcus Derrickson, Trey Mourning Cs: Jessie Govan, Chris Sodom
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jul 28, 2017 14:38:59 GMT -5
Govan-C Pickett-F Derrickson-F Mosely-G Mulmore-G
Johnson-Wing Blair-Wing Dickerson-G Sodom-C Walker-F
Injured-TBD Mourning Campbell
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Post by HometownHoya on Jul 28, 2017 15:35:43 GMT -5
I still think Kaleb gets the starting SF nod...at least to start the season. Pickett and Walker will definitely push him and compete. Hope Marcus and Jessie are ready for big minutes.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Jul 28, 2017 16:00:22 GMT -5
Govan-C Derrickson-F Pickett-F Mosely-G Dickerson-G
Johnson-Wing Blair-Wing Mulmore-G Sodom-C Walker-F
Injured-TBD Mourning Campbell
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Jul 28, 2017 16:02:08 GMT -5
What about Govan and Derrickson at the center position?
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