BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 16:49:08 GMT -5
I think this point is often understated, because turnovers aren't always as noticeable in the flow of the game (though when the Hoyas turn it over so much it's hard to miss) as missed shots, etc. That said, Blair turns it over considerably less than our other guards. These are our player's turnover rates for Big East play (because it's a turnover rate, it accounts for differences in number of minutes played etc., and is more useful than simply the raw number of turnovers): Walker: 12.6 Govan: 14.9 Derrickson: 17.5 Blair: 18.3 Mosely: 28.4 Pickett: 30.5 Johnson: 31.2 Dickerson: 32.6 Mulmore: 42.3 As you can see, Blair is significantly better than anybody except our bigs. Dickerson and Mulmore turn it over at a significantly higher rate than Blair, and Mosely is not far behind. Keep in mind that when players turn it over, not only is it 0 for us, but often points for the other team. This is why the turnovers are particularly killer, and it's why Blair has to play. If you were to put Blair on our teams from 2009-2013, or even some of the DSR teams, Blair would probably be getting spot minutes since those teams had much higher quality guards. But, for lack of any better options, Blair is easily among the two best guards. I would add that both Mulmore and Dickerson's offensive efficiency has been abysmal in Big East play (Mulmore 77.8, Dickerson, 66.7, in contrast to Blair at 90.6, and Mosely at 93.8 - none are good numbers but Blair/Mosely are clearly the best). As I said above he turns it over less because possessions end with him and he doesn't pass. You are comparing him to the ball handlers. Even with that said he has 4.4 TOs/100 possessions and Mulmore who we know is awful has 5.3 and Jahvon takes 21.5 shots while Mulmore takes 5.8. Jahvon has the highest usage of anyone on the team which is amazing. When your worst shooter is getting the most shots that usually not good. He has been pretty bad in the close losses as well. He has the highest net negative rating of anyone but Mulmore and Dickerson, who I refuse to include in any of this because he shouldnt even be on the team and luckily it seems like hes been relegated. If Jahvon was responsible for bringing it up and Mulmore was just the guy that shot open 3's whenever he wanted I think the numbers would be very different. If we were actually concerned with winning I would try Mulmore in the Jahvon role with Jagan at PG. We know Mulmore can hit open 3 and the defense would improve but its clear his confidence as shot as he knows the end is near. Since we aren't concerned about winning I have no problem with Jahvon getting lots of minutes but I do think Kaleb is worth salvaging. I think this team would be much better next year with Kaleb gaining confidence as he is a much better two way player. I just don't know how far down the road we are kicking the can at this point. Also to the people saying teams are concentrating on Jahvon yet all the shots he's taking are open ones doesn't make sense. If teams were focusing on him he wouldn't be getting open shots. He's just not afraid to shoot. I wish a few others had the same mentality. Its clear what teams are focusing on and that is packing the paint and stopping the bigs. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games & not knocking it down. Nothing more to say. Even though Mulmore is shooting .500 in BEast, he scared to shoot the ball which can be told in his 10 shot attemps. Can't make him do something he isn't comfortable with. If Blair & Pickett didn't fire away, this team would have 22 shot attempts from the guards & wings in 9 BEast games! This of course doesn't include Dickerson who is abysmal at (2-10 .200)
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 16:54:38 GMT -5
As I said above he turns it over less because possessions end with him and he doesn't pass. You are comparing him to the ball handlers. Even with that said he has 4.4 TOs/100 possessions and Mulmore who we know is awful has 5.3 and Jahvon takes 21.5 shots while Mulmore takes 5.8. Jahvon has the highest usage of anyone on the team which is amazing. When your worst shooter is getting the most shots that usually not good. He has been pretty bad in the close losses as well. He has the highest net negative rating of anyone but Mulmore and Dickerson, who I refuse to include in any of this because he shouldnt even be on the team and luckily it seems like hes been relegated. If Jahvon was responsible for bringing it up and Mulmore was just the guy that shot open 3's whenever he wanted I think the numbers would be very different. If we were actually concerned with winning I would try Mulmore in the Jahvon role with Jagan at PG. We know Mulmore can hit open 3 and the defense would improve but its clear his confidence as shot as he knows the end is near. Since we aren't concerned about winning I have no problem with Jahvon getting lots of minutes but I do think Kaleb is worth salvaging. I think this team would be much better next year with Kaleb gaining confidence as he is a much better two way player. I just don't know how far down the road we are kicking the can at this point. Also to the people saying teams are concentrating on Jahvon yet all the shots he's taking are open ones doesn't make sense. If teams were focusing on him he wouldn't be getting open shots. He's just not afraid to shoot. I wish a few others had the same mentality. Its clear what teams are focusing on and that is packing the paint and stopping the bigs. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games & not knocking it down. Nothing more to say. Even though Mulmore is shooting .500 in BEast, he scared to shoot the ball which can be told in his 10 shot attemps. Can't make him do something he isn't comfortable with. That is my whole point lol. Tell those guys to shoot and tell Jahvon to fake and drive to the hoop and use his knack for drawing fouls.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 16:57:01 GMT -5
They are scared. They aren't built that way, that's the point I'm trying to make.
Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games, I rather him drive more.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 17:12:58 GMT -5
They are scared. They aren't built that way, that's the point I'm trying to make. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games, I rather him drive more. Well I would sit Kaleb down and say look Jahvon is a worse shooter than you and you see that coach seems not to care. Go out there and shoot when you are open like you did in the cupcakes. I agree maybe he isn't wired that way but to defend Jahvon by saying well at least he will shoot when he is literally the worst shooter on the team is very weird. I don't see how that is a defense. Its just the classic case of fans confusing usage for being good which I hate. Just because you shoot a lot doesn't mean you are good it just means you shoot a lot. Why not have our better shooters take the shots to get better results. That's not on Jahvon though that's on the coach. If Jahvon has the green light to keep shooting 3's why would he stop? I guess we will see how it all plays out next year since winning is not the priority this year. By the way a lot of this same argument can be made for Pickett as well. He has only been slightly better than Jahvon but Pickett has been dragged on here while Jahvon has been lauded. I think at the end of the day that's what gets me riled up the most if Im being honest.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 18:07:27 GMT -5
They are scared. They aren't built that way, that's the point I'm trying to make. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games, I rather him drive more. Well I would sit Kaleb down and say look Jahvon is a worse shooter than you and you see that coach seems not to care. Go out there and shoot when you are open like you did in the cupcakes. I agree maybe he isn't wired that way but to defend Jahvon by saying well at least he will shoot when he is literally the worst shooter on the team is very weird. I don't see how that is a defense. Its just the classic case of fans confusing usage for being good which I hate. Just because you shoot a lot doesn't mean you are good it just means you shoot a lot. Why not have our better shooters take the shots to get better results. That's not on Jahvon though that's on the coach. If Jahvon has the green light to keep shooting 3's why would he stop? I guess we will see how it all plays out next year since winning is not the priority this year. By the way a lot of this same argument can be made for Pickett as well. He has only been slightly better than Jahvon but Pickett has been dragged on here while Jahvon has been lauded. I think at the end of the day that's what gets me riled up the most if Im being honest. Pickett is now shooting .350, this is further reason for Blair to keep shooting. Ewing sees them in practice, that's why he has faith in those two. Blair .315 > Johnson .090, Mulmore is gun-shy & Dickerson is terrible. Your grasping at air.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 26, 2018 18:14:11 GMT -5
2003, where do you go for stats if you want to isolate BE numbers from the OOC? I got them from the KenPom part only available with subscription, with allows you to expand the player page, which breaks down OOC and conference.
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jester
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Post by jester on Jan 26, 2018 18:26:03 GMT -5
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 26, 2018 18:40:46 GMT -5
As I said above he turns it over less because possessions end with him and he doesn't pass. You are comparing him to the ball handlers. Even with that said he has 4.4 TOs/100 possessions and Mulmore who we know is awful has 5.3 and Jahvon takes 21.5 shots while Mulmore takes 5.8. Jahvon has the highest usage of anyone on the team which is amazing. When your worst shooter is getting the most shots that usually not good. He has been pretty bad in the close losses as well. He has the highest net negative rating of anyone but Mulmore and Dickerson, who I refuse to include in any of this because he shouldnt even be on the team and luckily it seems like hes been relegated. If Jahvon was responsible for bringing it up and Mulmore was just the guy that shot open 3's whenever he wanted I think the numbers would be very different. If we were actually concerned with winning I would try Mulmore in the Jahvon role with Jagan at PG. We know Mulmore can hit open 3 and the defense would improve but its clear his confidence as shot as he knows the end is near. Since we aren't concerned about winning I have no problem with Jahvon getting lots of minutes but I do think Kaleb is worth salvaging. I think this team would be much better next year with Kaleb gaining confidence as he is a much better two way player. I just don't know how far down the road we are kicking the can at this point. Also to the people saying teams are concentrating on Jahvon yet all the shots he's taking are open ones doesn't make sense. If teams were focusing on him he wouldn't be getting open shots. He's just not afraid to shoot. I wish a few others had the same mentality. Its clear what teams are focusing on and that is packing the paint and stopping the bigs. I disagree with your perception that Blair turns it over less because he handles the ball less and just shoots. It may be true to a small degree, but not a huge one. For example, he may not bring up the ball as much as Mulmore, for example, but especially when he's out there only with Mosely, he gets plenty of ball handling and passing. He often tries (and fails) to penetrate, which by necessity includes ball handling. He certainly isn't just a catch and shoot player, though he (like almost everyone) generally shoots better in that situation. [And I would note that other guys who don't dribble a ton, like Johnson and Pickett still turn it over way more than Blair.] As for your stats, I think you're minimizing the differences. Yes, in conference Mulmore has 5.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, whereas Blair has 4.4 That's actually a pretty big difference (Mulmore turns it over 32% more). Also, I don't think these TO/100 possession stats take into account usage, so they are misleading (for example, you shouldn't get credit for not turning it over on a possession where you don't touch the ball). That's why I think turnover rate is a better stat. I agree in principle that Blair could stand to shoot a bit less and focus a little more on good opportunities versus ones that are more challenging. I also don't think all his shots are open - some are, some aren't. I think he should continue to focus more on the good ones and be a little more selective. Mulmore has been pretty bad in Big East play. His three point shooting (5-10) has been good, but he is 2-12 on twos, and his rate at getting to the free throw line is way lower than it was before Big East play. He's not a volume shooter, which is why I think your idea of playing him with Mosely at PG would be problematic. I still think Mulmore is the best ball handler of the bunch, but I think Mosely/Blair are head and shoulders above Mulmore otherwise. I think defense is mostly a wash too, with Mosely being the best, but even there I don't think there's a gigantic difference because none of them are that good.
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jan 26, 2018 18:49:29 GMT -5
Mulmore and Dickerson force their teammates to turn the ball over at times due to their poor passing, especially on fast breaks where they pass at untimely moments. Don't get me started on the telegraphed passes and offensive charges.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 18:54:25 GMT -5
Well I would sit Kaleb down and say look Jahvon is a worse shooter than you and you see that coach seems not to care. Go out there and shoot when you are open like you did in the cupcakes. I agree maybe he isn't wired that way but to defend Jahvon by saying well at least he will shoot when he is literally the worst shooter on the team is very weird. I don't see how that is a defense. Its just the classic case of fans confusing usage for being good which I hate. Just because you shoot a lot doesn't mean you are good it just means you shoot a lot. Why not have our better shooters take the shots to get better results. That's not on Jahvon though that's on the coach. If Jahvon has the green light to keep shooting 3's why would he stop? I guess we will see how it all plays out next year since winning is not the priority this year. By the way a lot of this same argument can be made for Pickett as well. He has only been slightly better than Jahvon but Pickett has been dragged on here while Jahvon has been lauded. I think at the end of the day that's what gets me riled up the most if Im being honest. Pickett is now shooting .350, this is further reason for Blair to keep shooting. Ewing sees them in practice, that's why he has faith in those two. Blair .315 > Johnson .090, Mulmore is gun-shy & Dickerson is terrible. Your grasping at air. You are getting your stats messed up. You are judging Blair's totals with Johnson's conference. Blair is a .277 3 pt in conference with an eFG% or .384. Johnson is a .083 3 pt with an eFG of .479. Yes KJ has lost his confidence in conference and has stopped shooting but that doesn't mean Jahvon should be shooting. KJ is shooting .359 for the year and is a career .375 while Jahvon is .317 for both of course. Im not sure what straws Im grasping at. You keep going back to the gun shy argument which is baffling. If I laced them up for the team tomorrow should I just go out there and chuck them up because I'm not scared to shoot? Jahvon has the worst overall FG% total shooting % and eFG% of the rotation players yet he has the highest usage. That is not a straw that is a fact. He's also the worst defender on the team. Just because you like him doesn't make those things any less true. You are just clearly a usage=great fan.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 19:26:39 GMT -5
As for your stats, I think you're minimizing the differences. Yes, in conference Mulmore has 5.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, whereas Blair has 4.4 That's actually a pretty big difference (Mulmore turns it over 32% more). Also, I don't think these TO/100 possession stats take into account usage, so they are misleading (for example, you shouldn't get credit for not turning it over on a possession where you don't touch the ball). That's why I think turnover rate is a better stat. I agree in principle that Blair could stand to shoot a bit less and focus a little more on good opportunities versus ones that are more challenging. I also don't think all his shots are open - some are, some aren't. I think he should continue to focus more on the good ones and be a little more selective. Mulmore has been pretty bad in Big East play. His three point shooting (5-10) has been good, but he is 2-12 on twos, and his rate at getting to the free throw line is way lower than it was before Big East play. He's not a volume shooter, which is why I think your idea of playing him with Mosely at PG would be problematic. I still think Mulmore is the best ball handler of the bunch, but I think Mosely/Blair are head and shoulders above Mulmore otherwise. I think defense is mostly a wash too, with Mosely being the best, but even there I don't think there's a gigantic difference because none of them are that good. I know you know stats and how they impact a game way too much to think that simply not turning it over makes up for everything else. If Jahvon was charged with bringing it up and getting the team in the offense and facing opposing PGs his TO rate would be high as well. Just like if Mulmore or Jagans job was to run around and shooting when they caught it there's would be lower. I have never seen a shots per second of ball possession but I would love to see Jahvon's compared to the other guys though. To be honest I'm not sure why we are arguing TO rates of PG to SG anyways as the PG pretty much always has the higher TO rate. For what it's worth Jahvon might be the only one playing in his true position anyways. The others are 2'playing as 1's or 3's playing as 2's. What cant be argued is that Jahvon is the least efficient shooter and defender on the team of the rotation guys. He's the worst by a considerable amount in both in whatever metric you want to use. He somehow has 0 blocks and 2 steals in conference. I would think he would have more by accident. It also cant be argued that he takes the most shots per possession (tied with Jessie) and has the highest usage. He shoots considerably more (16%) per possession than MD!! I know this isn't you because you said he needs to be more wise with his shots, I just don't get the justification from those that encourage his unlimited green light. What are they basing it on? Simply because he's not scared to shoot. Neither am I where do I sign up?
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 26, 2018 22:06:38 GMT -5
They are scared. They aren't built that way, that's the point I'm trying to make. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games, I rather him drive more. I really don't think Mulmore is afraid to shoot the three - but his set shot from his hip just takes soooo long to get off, he needs a ton of space in order to shoot, and does not get that much space more than once or twice a game.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 26, 2018 22:32:06 GMT -5
They are scared. They aren't built that way, that's the point I'm trying to make. Johnson has shot the three ball 12 times (.090 clip) in 9 BEast games, I rather him drive more. Well I would sit Kaleb down and say look Jahvon is a worse shooter than you and you see that coach seems not to care. Go out there and shoot when you are open like you did in the cupcakes. I agree maybe he isn't wired that way but to defend Jahvon by saying well at least he will shoot when he is literally the worst shooter on the team is very weird. I don't see how that is a defense. Its just the classic case of fans confusing usage for being good which I hate. Just because you shoot a lot doesn't mean you are good it just means you shoot a lot. Why not have our better shooters take the shots to get better results. That's not on Jahvon though that's on the coach. If Jahvon has the green light to keep shooting 3's why would he stop? I guess we will see how it all plays out next year since winning is not the priority this year. By the way a lot of this same argument can be made for Pickett as well. He has only been slightly better than Jahvon but Pickett has been dragged on here while Jahvon has been lauded. I think at the end of the day that's what gets me riled up the most if Im being honest. Blair isn't the worst shooter on the team. He's not even close. Yes, after a couple of poor shooting games, he's got a low TS% over exactly nine game, but that's an incredibly small sample. He's got fine form and shoots 89% from the line, which is a better indicator than any other number of how good a shooter he is. We get it, you love Pickett and you are annoyed people criticized him. But I never had any real issue with Pickett, and I never had any real issue with Pickett's **shot**. I'm not worried -- and never have been worried -- about either one's shot. You can scout that both will likely shoot well. I -- and quite a few others -- simply noted that Pickett was killing us and that maybe he deserved less than the 30 mpg he was getting. His minutes went down a bit, his shot started dropping and he started adding some other parts to his game and it's all worked out. I never saw anyone question Pickett's long term game -- just that he was shooting poorly, turning the ball over like crazy and adding nothing else at the time. In comparison, Blair is shooting poorly. But he's not turning the ball over, so far to the point that he;'s got a better offensive rating in BE than Pickett despite an eFG% 18 points lower. You are right that he should drive more, absolutely. But since he is outplaying Mulmore and Dickerson, I don't know why he should get less minutes, especially when he's getting in the low 20s in minutes. Pickett was playing full starter minutes and being outplayed by Mosley and Blair at the time. No one behind Blair in the rotation is outplaying him right now. This isn't about scorekeeping internet fairness between recruits. The situation is completely different. We should all be happy that Pickett's shot has come and game and has improved, and all should be hoping Blair's shot comes back.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 26, 2018 22:47:35 GMT -5
That's not my justification for the green light. It's very simple: * The vast majority of his shots are good shots. He's open, he's not forcing it, it's a good decision; he's just not making it. Teaching good shot selection is key. He's banged down a bunch of long threes; he's hit that curl three at the top of the key about at 50%. He's not forcing shots. He's taking when open on 90% of his shots. * His form and game look to me like the shot results will come around. Just like Pickett's and Pickett's has, for the moment at least. * He knows how to get open. He knows how to create space and contact when needed. Dude has a scorer's mindset and crafty skillset. You don't want to kill that. That's why I say I wouldn't tell him to not shoot because he's missing. Sure, tell him when there's a bad shot -- but there's haven't been that many. There's been missed shots, but an open shot is a good shot. If he's killing the team, reduce his minutes (though not for Mulmore ... good lord). *But don't tell him to not take a GOOD shot because he's not hitting. That's terrible coaching and leads to a player hesitating and being scared to take a shot. You don't want Blair to shoot less; you want him to improve his shooting. His shooting isn't poor because he's taking fade-aways or contested shots -- he's just missing open shots. Don't break his fairly good shot selection and knack for finding an open shot; fix his lack of shooting.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Jan 27, 2018 0:09:00 GMT -5
Fact is that it’s a team of flawed, one-dimensional players. Some can handle the ball but not shoot, some can shoot but have no handles, poor defense with decent offense, no lift, great FT shooting but cannot finish the shots on the break and in the lane, terrible defense, and so on. Coach is challenged because there are not any players who are even close to the complete package. Best he can do is read the opponent, watch the game and try to put the pieces on the floor that maximize the chance to win. It’s tough, and at times maddening but it is who they are for now. So play Blair more, or sit Govan, or bring Mosley off the bench or use MD at the 5 in small ball because it is going to change from game to game and within games. They are simply not fully developed individually or as a team at this time to have a set line-up that should be set in stone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2018 11:44:48 GMT -5
Another day, another opportunity for the young guy. Hopefully he gets a couple easy ones and gets rolling, we're going to need it
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 27, 2018 12:03:37 GMT -5
Another day, another opportunity for the young guy. Hopefully he gets a couple easy ones and gets rolling, we're going to need it I think that to have a chance to win any of our last 9 games, we will need at least 3 of Jessie, Doc, Pick and Jahvon to have strong games on the same night. Of course all 4 at once would be great.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Jan 27, 2018 12:23:21 GMT -5
Another day, another opportunity for the young guy. Hopefully he gets a couple easy ones and gets rolling, we're going to need it I think that to have a chance to win any of our last 9 games, we will need at least 3 of Jessie, Doc, Pick and Jahvon to have strong games on the same night. Of course all 4 at once would be great. This.
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Post by bicentennial on Jan 27, 2018 15:12:48 GMT -5
I think we need all 5 of Jessie, Doc, Pick, Jiggie and Juggie to have strong games on the same night. Of course it would also help if Mulmore has less than 4 turnovers and more than 4 assists when he is in the game.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 27, 2018 15:24:19 GMT -5
I think we need all 5 of Jessie, Doc, Pick, Jiggie and Juggie to have strong games on the same night. Of course it would also help if Mulmore has less than 4 turnovers and more than 4 assists when he is in the game. I don't think we have to have all 5 excel, 3 could do it - as long as the rest play solid games. But we can't have any negatives to cancel out the positives.
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