eagle54
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,471
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Post by eagle54 on Jan 24, 2016 0:05:59 GMT -5
After today, I tend to think that we need to win seven more games to be on the bubble and probably eight to get in. I'm thinking 7 regular season wins to get to 12-6 in the league and then a win in New York. The easiest way to do that is to go 6-0 in our home games and steal one or two on the road. Our final six at home are Creighton, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler. Obviously the first two and last two are the toughest. I think going 2-0 this week is pivotal for our chances. Creighton and Providence are both winnable home games against quality opponents. We already lost a chance against Villanova and can't do that again. In terms of the road games, I'm eyeing Butler and Providence. We have played well in both places, especially (and surprisingly) at Butler. The good news though is that the only real game that I think is probably out of reach is the closer against Villanova. So, even after the loss today, I think the tournament is there for the taking. The big caveat--we need consistency at this point and can't keep canceling out a significant win with a head-scratching loss. This week should tell is a lot. It's there but the question is can we take it. This seems like a season where we keep giving ground with losses and then rationalizing that it's not the end of the world. At some point it will be unless we can really step up and take control of this. I have all the confidence that we can play close with anyone but little confidence that we can string together a bunch of wins.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 24, 2016 8:33:30 GMT -5
We're all frustrated by the inconsistency of this team but stepping back, the last 9 games really have gone as expected. We swapped Xavier for Villanova but lost the two other tough road games.
We get a really good gauge this week of where this team is with two tough games they should win at home. Win them both and this team is looking like a tourney-bound team. Obviously they're not more than that at this point but one step at a time.
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wnyhoya
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Post by wnyhoya on Jan 24, 2016 11:56:14 GMT -5
After today, I tend to think that we need to win seven more games to be on the bubble and probably eight to get in. I'm thinking 7 regular season wins to get to 12-6 in the league and then a win in New York. The easiest way to do that is to go 6-0 in our home games and steal one or two on the road. Our final six at home are Creighton, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler. Obviously the first two and last two are the toughest. I think going 2-0 this week is pivotal for our chances. Creighton and Providence are both winnable home games against quality opponents. We already lost a chance against Villanova and can't do that again. In terms of the road games, I'm eyeing Butler and Providence. We have played well in both places, especially (and surprisingly) at Butler. The good news though is that the only real game that I think is probably out of reach is the closer against Villanova. So, even after the loss today, I think the tournament is there for the taking. The big caveat--we need consistency at this point and can't keep canceling out a significant win with a head-scratching loss. This week should tell is a lot. To me I don't think you have to get to 12-6. I think 11-7 with a win in the BET does it. Go 5-1 with the rest of the home games, but the loss can't come from St. John's, Creighton, or Seton Hall. And then like you said steal one road game at Butler or Providence. This should give us 4-5 top 50 RPI wins and an RPI of around 40-50. I think that gets the job done. I think people sometimes overestimate how difficult it is to get into the tournament. Look at two years ago...we were not a good basketball team, yet if we beat DePaul in the BET on that Wednesday night we were in. The only really good win that year which I can recall was MSU @msg and our Xavier win this year is already better than that. I remember watching the selection show that year and they showed the graphic of teams who just missed it and we were one of the last couple not to make it. I was shocked that we were even still in consideration yet we were right there knocking on the door. My point being that it's not as hard to get in as we sometimes make it out to be. However, this could all be a moot point if we lose to Creighton Tuesday. Here's to hoping it's not!
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vv83
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by vv83 on Jan 24, 2016 14:15:55 GMT -5
After today, I tend to think that we need to win seven more games to be on the bubble and probably eight to get in. I'm thinking 7 regular season wins to get to 12-6 in the league and then a win in New York. The easiest way to do that is to go 6-0 in our home games and steal one or two on the road. Our final six at home are Creighton, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler. Obviously the first two and last two are the toughest. I think going 2-0 this week is pivotal for our chances. Creighton and Providence are both winnable home games against quality opponents. We already lost a chance against Villanova and can't do that again. In terms of the road games, I'm eyeing Butler and Providence. We have played well in both places, especially (and surprisingly) at Butler. The good news though is that the only real game that I think is probably out of reach is the closer against Villanova. So, even after the loss today, I think the tournament is there for the taking. The big caveat--we need consistency at this point and can't keep canceling out a significant win with a head-scratching loss. This week should tell is a lot. To me I don't think you have to get to 12-6. I think 11-7 with a win in the BET does it. Go 5-1 with the rest of the home games, but the loss can't come from St. John's, Creighton, or Seton Hall. And then like you said steal one road game at Butler or Providence. This should give us 4-5 top 50 RPI wins and an RPI of around 40-50. I think that gets the job done. I think people sometimes overestimate how difficult it is to get into the tournament. Look at two years ago...we were not a good basketball team, yet if we beat DePaul in the BET on that Wednesday night we were in. The only really good win that year which I can recall was MSU @msg and our Xavier win this year is already better than that. I remember watching the selection show that year and they showed the graphic of teams who just missed it and we were one of the last couple not to make it. I was shocked that we were even still in consideration yet we were right there knocking on the door. My point being that it's not as hard to get in as we sometimes make it out to be. However, this could all be a moot point if we lose to Creighton Tuesday. Here's to hoping it's not! The frustrating thing about Creighton is that they are probably a much better team than their RPI, especially at home. And especially against us, because we can't handle their super quick point guard (Watson) at all. I actually think we have a better chance of beating Butler and Providence at home than we do of beating Creighton, primarily because of Watson. Dunn is great, but he sins with size and vision as much as quickness. We can handle his size better than most teams. Watson's quickness is harder for us to handle (at least when we are defending) than Dunn's combination of talents. And the surrounding cast for Providence is nothing special other than Bentil (could we go back in time and trade Copeland for Bentil?) Bentil is tough - his combination of outside shooting and strength/size/athleticism makes him a legit NBA prospect. But we can again handle his size/strength better than most teams. I am actually more concerned about Creighton than Providence this week. That's of course not to say that Dunn and Bentil could not tear us up, two losses this week would not be all that surprising (though very disappointing) either.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 25, 2016 9:09:47 GMT -5
The best thing that we have that other teams ahead of us don't is like 8 games against the top 100 teams. But we need to win more than half of those, starting this week.
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 25, 2016 10:28:35 GMT -5
After today, I tend to think that we need to win seven more games to be on the bubble and probably eight to get in. I'm thinking 7 regular season wins to get to 12-6 in the league and then a win in New York. The easiest way to do that is to go 6-0 in our home games and steal one or two on the road. Our final six at home are Creighton, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler. Obviously the first two and last two are the toughest. I think going 2-0 this week is pivotal for our chances. Creighton and Providence are both winnable home games against quality opponents. We already lost a chance against Villanova and can't do that again. In terms of the road games, I'm eyeing Butler and Providence. We have played well in both places, especially (and surprisingly) at Butler. The good news though is that the only real game that I think is probably out of reach is the closer against Villanova. So, even after the loss today, I think the tournament is there for the taking. The big caveat--we need consistency at this point and can't keep canceling out a significant win with a head-scratching loss. This week should tell is a lot. It's there but the question is can we take it. This seems like a season where we keep giving ground with losses and then rationalizing that it's not the end of the world. At some point it will be unless we can really step up and take control of this. I have all the confidence that we can play close with anyone but little confidence that we can string together a bunch of wins. The good news is that we probably don't need to string together a bunch of wins to make the NCAAs. We just need to win 7 of twelve, or one game better than .500 over the last eleven regular season games and our BET game.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 25, 2016 10:50:05 GMT -5
Yes, we can conjure up pathways that lead to an NCAA tournament invitation. But this lame duck of a season is starting to talk and walk and foul like a foul of a different feather.
I have <20% confidence we can finish above .500 in these last 11.
Even at 6-5 in the last 11, we'd probably have to win the BET with a cripplingly low RPI and OOC performance.
I have <5% confidence we can finish 7-4 or better.
And that's my math.
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vv83
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by vv83 on Jan 25, 2016 10:59:38 GMT -5
The only 2 games we have left that I feel like we are fairly unlikely to win are @ Villanova and home vs. Xavier. Everything else - my guess is that we will be right there in every game entering the final minutes (perhaps with an easier time than this home vs. St. John's). We'll have a chance to win enough games to reach the NCAA tournament, but we'll have to do a much better end game job.
We are ranked 308 in "luck" by kenpom.com- which basically means that based on our underlying metrics, we should have a few more wins than we do. This is of course a pretty dubious stat, but I for one am going to foolishly latch onto the idea that we are "due" to win a bunch of these close games that we have been losing so far! The nice thing is that the only game in which we have not been competitive this year was vs. monmouth. So we are not a bad team, just a team that has not been able to put away enough close games, and that of course underperformed against two really bad mid major teams. There is still reason for hope, although every loss from here on out really hurts.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 25, 2016 11:17:39 GMT -5
Yes, we can conjure up pathways that lead to an NCAA tournament invitation. But this lame duck of a season is starting to talk and walk and foul like a foul of a different feather. I have <20% confidence we can finish above .500 in these last 11. Even at 6-5 in the last 11, we'd probably have to win the BET with a cripplingly low RPI and OOC performance. I have <5% confidence we can finish 7-4 or better. And that's my math. I think you're underestimating their ability to get in at 11-7 in the BE (as in, it likely doesn't require more than one BE win), but I can certainly understand your pessimism regarding their chances to get to 11-7. The numbers will come around if they get to 19 wins.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2016 11:27:41 GMT -5
If we somehow end up on the bubble, it will be very easy for the committee to kick us off the bubble due to our bad losses. Radford and Asheville are killers. Monmouth might not end up being a "bad" loss by RPI standards, but it was a bad loss.
The committee starts with 2 questions: Who did you play? and Who did you beat? Aside from one good win (@xavier), all of the best line items on our resume are actually losses (MD, Duke, Nova). That's not a great formula for getting into the tournament.
Numbers aside: I just don't see this team figuring out how to put together a stretch of games that gets us safely into the tourney conversation. Does a 12-6 BET regular season get us into the conversation? Maybe - but that means we have to finish 7-4. With 6 of our remaining games against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Providence, and having already done most of our bottom-feeding (3 of our 4 games against DePaul and St. John's behind us).
I think it's BET or bust.
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Post by Lethal_Interjection on Jan 25, 2016 11:37:13 GMT -5
The Hoyas have to win the BET and they'll get into the big dance, that's the best way for them to make it.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 25, 2016 11:42:19 GMT -5
Consistency is not this team's forte, so I dont think winning the BET is realistic (maybe Feb will prove me wrong). The best and most likely path I see is sweep the Hall (doable), beat Creighton (doable), beat Marquette (doable), beat St. John's (doable), and then split with Providence and Butler by winning at home (doable). That gets us a good bubble spot. Add 1 BET win and lock it up. Bonus points if we can take one from Providence or Butler on the road. Super bonus points if we win at Villanova.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 25, 2016 16:50:26 GMT -5
If we somehow end up on the bubble, it will be very easy for the committee to kick us off the bubble due to our bad losses. Radford and Asheville are killers. Monmouth might not end up being a "bad" loss by RPI standards, but it was a bad loss. The committee starts with 2 questions: Who did you play? and Who did you beat? Aside from one good win (@xavier), all of the best line items on our resume are actually losses (MD, Duke, Nova). That's not a great formula for getting into the tournament. Numbers aside: I just don't see this team figuring out how to put together a stretch of games that gets us safely into the tourney conversation. Does a 12-6 BET regular season get us into the conversation? Maybe - but that means we have to finish 7-4. With 6 of our remaining games against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Providence, and having already done most of our bottom-feeding (3 of our 4 games against DePaul and St. John's behind us). I think it's BET or bust. I think you are just saying the same thing everyone else is in a different way. Of course as of today we are not making the tourney. We ain't even close. And of course it's probably not likely that a team that is 12-8 is all of a sudden going go to 8-4. But, if we win 12 BE games there is no way we are not going to the NCAA tournament.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 25, 2016 17:07:10 GMT -5
The only 2 games we have left that I feel like we are fairly unlikely to win are @ Villanova and home vs. Xavier. Everything else - my guess is that we will be right there in every game entering the final minutes (perhaps with an easier time than this home vs. St. John's). We'll have a chance to win enough games to reach the NCAA tournament, but we'll have to do a much better end game job. We are ranked 308 in "luck" by kenpom.com- which basically means that based on our underlying metrics, we should have a few more wins than we do. This is of course a pretty dubious stat, but I for one am going to foolishly latch onto the idea that we are "due" to win a bunch of these close games that we have been losing so far! The nice thing is that the only game in which we have not been competitive this year was vs. monmouth. So we are not a bad team, just a team that has not been able to put away enough close games, and that of course underperformed against two really bad mid major teams. There is still reason for hope, although every loss from here on out really hurts. I think you'd have to admit we are probably not likely to beat Providence at home. I think we can, but that's a tougher game to me.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 25, 2016 17:20:30 GMT -5
Consistency is not this team's forte, so I dont think winning the BET is realistic (maybe Feb will prove me wrong). The best and most likely path I see is sweep the Hall (doable), beat Creighton (doable), beat Marquette (doable), beat St. John's (doable), and then split with Providence and Butler by winning at home (doable). That gets us a good bubble spot. Add 1 BET win and lock it up. Bonus points if we can take one from Providence or Butler on the road. Super bonus points if we win at Villanova. Ironically, the chances we go 5-0 against SH (2), Creighton, Marquette, and SJU are smaller than going 1-5 or worse against Butler (2), Providence (2), Nova, and Xavier.
I am expecting 3-2 against the lower echelon now and all of this NCAA chatter is pipe dreams.
We are looking like a duck.
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FLHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Proud Member of Generation Burton
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Post by FLHoya on Jan 25, 2016 17:23:32 GMT -5
Here's where the range of RPIForecast forecasts are as of today:
Final Record Expected RPI Probability 22-9 22.2 0.13% 21-10 28.1 0.89% 20-11 35.1 4.04% 19-12 44.8 11.66% 18-13 55.8 21.21% 17-14 67.8 25.73% 16-15 79.9 21.13% 15-16 92.8 11.07% 14-17 107.0 3.64% 13-18 121.1 0.49%
The bold are the two scenarios we throw around the most, though based on the current predictors, 17-14 (10-8 in the BE) is the most likely, and 16-15/9-9 is about as likely as 18-13/11-7. You can see the expected RPIs for the time being.
If you run it through the RPI Wizard and put in specific results
7-4 (19-12/12-6) with W's in the 7 games with the best odds (SJU, SHU, PC, CREI, @mu, BUT, @shu) gives us an RPI of 43 entering the BET. Let's say that's the 4 seed, and our first game is against Butler. A win there and a loss to Nova in the SFs gives us an RPI of 37. A loss to Butler and it's 47.
6-5 (18-13/11-7) with the above 7 wins minus @shu gives us a pre-BET RPI of 51. Let's say that's the 5 seed for simplicity's sake. W over Butler and loss to Nova is 47, loss to Butler is 54.
In those generic scenarios...I mean, 47 would be the definition of a bubble team. So to be "safe", I think you'd want 12-6 and a BET win or 11-7 and two BET wins. Tough order.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 25, 2016 20:18:43 GMT -5
There is no way a 12-6 BE team isn't making the NCAA tournament. Now, the chances of us going 12-6 are tied to the fact that our RPI may not look good at 12-6. In other words, it's really not likely we are going to be 12-6. If we were, we wouldn't be slumming at a 76 RPI hoping to get to a 47 RPI.
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Post by BeantownHoya on Jan 26, 2016 19:53:28 GMT -5
I know the answer to this....a miracle
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 26, 2016 21:00:22 GMT -5
I know the answer to this....a miracle Did that count?
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Post by dkt2 on Jan 26, 2016 21:00:28 GMT -5
Keep getting those Ws!
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