Big East seeding for slots 3-5

[hoyajmw]

We all know the scenario for how we finish either 6 or 7 seed, but there's quite the scrum for seeds 3-5 in the tournament I thought I'd try to figure out today. I wouldn't bet much on this, but I think this is how it breaks down. Assume St. John’s loses at Marquette and Providence loses at Creighton Saturday -- the very likely results. The 10-8 teams are then Marquette, Providence, Xavier -- all tied for third behind Villanova and Creighton.

As I have it, they are tied in the head-to-head-to-head "mini-conference" (how they did against one another) at 2-2 each, so you then go to how they did against the top team in the conference on down until the tie is broken. None beat #1 Villanova/still all tied. Providence and Xavier both beat #2 Creighton once/Marquette lost twice – so I think at that point you drop Marquette out/they're the 5 seed and you go on with the other two to decide seeds 3 & 4. If you go to head to head tiebreaker then between Prov/Xavier (not sure if that is the protocol),they split so STILL tied (so doesn't matter if that is the protocol or not) – so you go to how they did against the #6 seed. If that is us (if we beat 'Nova), it won't break the tie because Prov/Xavier each are 1-1 with us. So you need to go to the St. John's results, whether they are 6 or 7 seed. Xavier beat St. John's twice/Providence only did once – SO Xavier is your 3 seed/Providence 4/Marquette 5/.

What that means for us under this scenario (Marquette and Creighton have both won at home Saturday) is that if we DO beat 'Nova and are 6 seed, we play Xavier in the quarters Thursday (3 vs. 6) and if we win that, we'd play the winner of Thursday's Creighton vs. St. John's (2 v. 7) game on Friday. If we lose to 'Nova, it is Depaul of course Wednesday, then Creighton (2 seed), then the winner of Thursday's Xavier/St. John’s (3 v. 6) Friday.

But I could be wrong...

[Nevada Hoya]

Seedings, smeedings, we are going to win the tournament!

[FrazierFanatic]

Mar 7, 2014 19:06:59 GMT -5 Nevada Hoya said:

Seedings, smeedings, we are going to win the tournament!

I like the cut of your jib young feller.

[sleepy]

Big assumption that St Johns loses at Marquette other than keeping our chances of a bye alive.

[GUJook97]

Yes, you've got it. Xavier beat SJU twice, so they would be 3. But, sleepy's right, I think it's a pretty big assumption that SJU loses to Marquette. That's a good matchup for SJU. We'll see.

[JohnnyJones]

DFW's current pairing suggests that DePaul is locked into the 10 seed, but I don't think that is right. If Butler loses to Seton Hall tomorrow, they and DePaul will finish with the same record. They split head to head.

Butler's wins were Marquette, Seton Hall and DePaul
DePaul's wins were St. Johns, Seton Hall and Butler

So when you run down the standings from the top, it will depend who wins the SJU v. MU game tomorrow. If SJU wins tomorrow, then DePaul would get the 9 seed, since they beat SJU. If Marquette wins tomorrow, then Butler gets the 9 because they beat MU.

Is that wrong?

It matters obviously if we end up at 7.

If we are playing Wednesday night, I personally would rather play DePaul at this point then Butler.

[hoyajmw]

I think that's right, JJ. And I agree with those above that a SJ win today very possible. If it happens and Providence does lose at Creighton (much more likely of course), XMen still 3, Providence still 4, St. John's then 5 and Marquette 6. For us would just mean as all know we would remain 7 (vs either Depaul or Butler), then Creighton, then (knock wood there is a "then") winner of Xavier/Marquette. I realize, too, that running these scenarios perhaps a little beside the point -- "just win, baby" to steal a phrase. Indeed, HoyaChris and I ran into Frank Rienzo in the early 90's before the last regular season game and ran through an elaborate set of seeding "what ifs?" for him -- after which he just looked at us both with bemusement and said "yeah --.well I just wait to see the brackets in USA Today on Monday." And we had been soo proud of ourselves!

[johnnysnowplow]

So basically for us to get the 6 seed, we need to win and Marquette needs to beat St. Johns? Am I understanding that correctly?

[FrazierFanatic]

The johnnies on the road? New.

[hoyajmw]

Correct, johnnysnowplow. Marquette win on their senior day and our win (on nova's) and we are 6 seed with bye/playing thursday night at 9:30 game.

[johnnysnowplow]

Mar 8, 2014 12:13:57 GMT -5 hoyajmw said:

Correct, johnnysnowplow. Marquette win on their senior day and our win (on nova's) and we are 6 seed with bye/playing thursday night at 9:30 game.

Thanks. And thanks for doing the legwork to figure out the scenarios.

[hoyainspirit]

I really want that sixth seed.

[JohnnyJones]

Strangely, I am watching SH @ Butler. Butler is hammering SH by 20 14 minutes into the game. I hope Butler wins - I would much rather play DePaul Wednesday (and I understand we could lose to anyone).

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 8, 2014 17:02:16 GMT -5 JohnnyJones said:

Strangely, I am watching SH @ Butler. Butler is hammering SH by 20 14 minutes into the game. I hope Butler wins - I would much rather play DePaul Wednesday (and I understand we could lose to anyone).

Totally agree. DePaul is a wreck for a team that is not really any worse from an RPI standpoint. DePaul-Creighton-Xavier/Marquette if Providence loses tonight? We don't have to face an east coast team until the final? I'll definitely take that.