Boz
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Post by Boz on Dec 6, 2013 12:57:46 GMT -5
Well, it was nice that the U.S. got in and everything....
Group G: Germany Portugal Ghana USA
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nathanhm
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Post by nathanhm on Dec 6, 2013 13:26:41 GMT -5
Nate Silver's predicted advancement to the second were as follows:
Germany 92% Portugal 40% USA 39% Ghana 29%
Basically it's a group of death for all teams not named Germany.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Dec 6, 2013 13:42:12 GMT -5
I realize Nate Silver is God and everything, but 40% seems pretty low for a top 5 team in the world.
And I think every US fan really wouldn't have minded not seeing Ghana this time around...or ever again, for that matter.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Dec 6, 2013 13:53:11 GMT -5
At least we aren't Australia. But the travel schedule is also murderous - I don't have much hope if it comes down to needing a point (or 3) vs. Germany at noon in Recife (average daily high of 84 degrees in June) following the 8800 miles of travel required to go into the deep Amazon to face Portugal.
Also, Portugal is strong and Ronaldo is great, but that is not a Top 5 team in the world, and FIFA rankings are about as reliable as RPI.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Dec 6, 2013 15:26:09 GMT -5
I like the fact that we play Ghana first. A win against a team the United States has previously struggled against would set a great tone for the tournament. Beat Portugal in the Amazon and then who cares about Germany? (I know, a tall order. But not impossible.)
If the United States stumbles against Ghana or Portugal, it's entirely likely that Germany will have already qualified for the next round by the time we play them in Recife. I agree that game will be tough regardless but it's likely that we will be the more motivated team.
Just remember: you can't be in the "Group of Death" unless you are a dangerous team. These guys are scared of us, too.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Dec 6, 2013 16:33:47 GMT -5
Forget the world rankings. They mean jack squat. Portugal is 33-1 to win the whole thing, placing them outside the top ten teams in the tourney according to the odds makers- which is far more important than the joke rankings.
It is a tough group. Almost all of them are.
If we are afraid of Ghana (because of two results in last decade) we never were going to advance anyway. It is not as bad as everyone is saying. We've beaten Germany and Portugal before and we are at least as good as Ghana. We are one of the teams believe it or not nobody wants to face as we have developed a reputation as something of a giant killer. 40% sounds about right to me and unless you are one of the top 5-7 teams in the world, that ain't bad.
If I'm a German fan I don't sweat a couple of friendly losses to the US in the last decade but I might remember how lucky Germany were to have beaten the US in Korea in 2002. Goddamn handball non-call still stings. To reach the semis no less....
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CAHoya07
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Post by CAHoya07 on Dec 9, 2013 14:45:13 GMT -5
Tough draw. It's crazy that Mexico only got in because we saved them with our win over Panama, and apparently they statistically have a better chance of advancing past the group stage than we do.
That said, beat Ghana, and go from there. I do like that we're playing them first - that makes it practically impossible for them to eliminate us this year! Gives us a chance to exercise some past demons too. The next game vs. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal will obviously draw attention. Then a bunch of storylines will about as Klinsmann faces his former team.
To be one of the Big Boys, you have to beat them! This is a great opportunity for U.S. Soccer.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 9, 2013 15:20:35 GMT -5
Killer draw for the U.S.! So many storylines... I bet the USSF wanted any other African team not named Ghana. But, as stated above, it's best that it's the first game: full team playing, no cards, no elimination on the line, etc... Great way to get back at Ghana for the last 2 WCs! Portugal is a good team, but I think the US has a very good chance to get the points if Ronaldo is marked closely, unlike Sweden did. It was ridiculous to see how open he was in the middle of the field which allowed him to receive long passes from the other side of the field, and drive at the goalkeeper. Bother him all game long by sticking someone quick and strong to him or clog the middle of the defense, and he'll get frustrated. The pressure will be on him in Brasil like no other time in his career. Germany will probably have 6 points by the 3rd game and the US might catch it thinking of the next round, with card troubles, resting starters, etc... That's the optimistic analysis for that game because I think there's no way that JL will hold back against his former boss Klinsy.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 9, 2013 22:00:36 GMT -5
There's not much to be optimistic here. The US isn't a real contender for the World Cup, so victory here really meant out of pool play. And though sports fans don't like to admit it, draw is a huge factor in that.
It's not going to be impossible, but it's much harder than expected. Portugal is a terrible matchup simply because Ronaldo is going to rip us apart -- our defense has not been strong and is weak against a fast player out there. And the travel schedule isn't going to help. I realize that Portugal has to head to the Amazon as well, but Germany doesn't.
I don't want to be too much of a downer, because it is entirely possible that this young team could surprise and get through to the second round even without a gift from Germany. But it's so much harder now, and that's a real disappointment since the team does seem to be positioned well, with a good young generation coming up but the Donovan-era players still being near the top of their game.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Dec 10, 2013 17:09:19 GMT -5
It is true, we didn't get into one of the easiest groups. Yes, our group is one of 3 or 4 candidates for Group of Death. But I feel like every 4 years people forget that the World Cup finals isn't the CONCACAF Hex. Yes, there are big names in our group in Portugal and Germany. Yes, Ghana happened to be the country that knocked us out of two other cups.
But let's get a grip. There were always going to be at least 2 teams in our group we would not be favored against. Thats the deal when you have no chance at a seed. That's just life in the World Cup people when you are a middling soccer power as we are. But let's face a couple of facts: Ghana is 200-1 to win the whole thing (USA is between 100 and 150-1.) That means they are not a power to fear but another pretty good team like us. It matters NOT A LICK that two completely different Ghana teams beat two completely different USA teams 4 years ago and more.
Yes. Portugal has one of the best 2 players in the world. But last I checked this is a team game with 22 moving parts and it is not basketball. This Portugese Team, including Christiano Ronaldo, is NOT among the top 11 favorites to win this thing according a table of top UK oddsmakers. None of them. They are 33-1 and less fancied by the bookmakers than an England team that everyone in the soccer press has concluded also has no shot of getting out of their group even.
Germany? They are good. Very, very good, one of the hot European favorites in 2014. Just like Portugal and Luis Figo et al were the hot European power heading into 2002 Cup finals when we beat them. When we as a national program were FAR worse than we are now by the way.
I don't say this because I think we are very likely to move on. I don't think we are. I think the computer odds of 40% sound about right. And I think the difference between that (in a bad draw) and 50 or 60% in a perfect draw....is not worth a bucket of spit. Would anyone really be pumped if we had Honduras in our group and our highly theoretical odds shot up a whopping 20%? Look, I'm fully aware we could lose all three of these games and two of them could be ugly. But we could also win 2 of them and draw the third. I'm a very realistic fan of the US in World Cups. The dismal results of both 1998 and 2006 are very fresh in my mind. But it seems the pessimism of the draw goes over the top and fails to realize that at least 6 of the 8 groups are nearly as difficult as ours and the other 2 would by by no means easy for a team like the USA. This is the reality of life as a middling (#10-25 in world) soccer power every 4 years. The other reality is every 4 years 3 or 4 soccer giants fall in the first round of this thing.
Keep your heads up. Let's not beat ourselves before the game. That's an English trait this anglophile doesn't respect.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 10, 2013 21:45:36 GMT -5
Well look at where the other teams in our Pot ended up. Assuming everyone else got drawn the same way I'd definitely switch with, Japan, Iran, Korea, and Probably with Honduras, Mexico, and Costa Rica.
Only one that doesn't have an easier draw is Australia. So We pretty much got the worst possibility assuming everything else stayed the same.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Dec 10, 2013 22:05:08 GMT -5
As someone wrote, maybe it was in the Post, we can't demand respect as an emerging power and also be afraid of Ghana.
The upside of this draw is we don't have to play a South American team in South America. Do Brazilians root for Portugal?
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Post by HometownHoya on Dec 10, 2013 23:19:39 GMT -5
Personally, I think this is a good draw. Yes it is a "group of death" but there is a lot we have going for us. USMNT has lost to Ghana in the past and they definitely don't want to repeat so they will be up for that game. Ronaldo is a once in a generation player but Portugal as a whole isn't as deadly. If we can shut him down then our odds to win are better. Finally, Germany is a world class team and one of the favorites to win the tournament but fortunately, our coach is a German who definitely follows their national team. If anyone could find strategy to beat, it would be him. The main downside to our draw would be the travel involved, hopefully our potential youths will be able to step up. I believe the USMNT wants to make it past group stages and if they play like that during groups then they will. There are 3 quality teams that we will face, no trap teams and this team has the leadership to keep letdowns away. No matter what happens, I am excited for a good 2014 in soccer.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Dec 11, 2013 10:42:05 GMT -5
The travel sucks, but if any national team knows what long road trips across a large country with varied weather is like, it is the US. I don't disagree it is a tough draw, I disagree that the draw means EVERYTHING. And agree very strongly with the sentiment bmartin refers to that if we're going to be big boys now we have to stop waiting for the day when we draw a World Cup group with the Bahamas, Lichtenstein and Qatar.
Wait...can we talk about the fact that the fetid FIFA awarded the World Cup to a nation the size of Connecticut, the temperature of Venus, with less soccer culture than Oklahoma, and 13th century views on say beer and being gay? Really? Really FIFA? How much did you each clear after paying taxes on those enormous bribes?
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CAHoya07
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Post by CAHoya07 on Dec 11, 2013 16:44:45 GMT -5
There's not much to be optimistic here. The US isn't a real contender for the World Cup, so victory here really meant out of pool play. And though sports fans don't like to admit it, draw is a huge factor in that. No, I would say a victory would be advancing to the round of 8 (which we did in 2002), or round of 4 (which we have not done in modern World Cup history). We advanced past pool play four years ago, and while Donovan's goal against Algeria was great, I think there was still a tremendous sense of disappointment when we lost to Ghana in extra time. To me, advancing past pool play in a difficult group in 2014 would be an accomplishment, but I wouldn't consider it a major "victory" either. We've been playing well enough lately that I think our expectations should be higher.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Dec 11, 2013 17:03:56 GMT -5
I agree. Round of 8 is baseline for a good world cup for us from now on. Have to at least match 2002 to call it a victory. While last Cup's win vs Algeria was utterly thrilling and seems still to me to be a tipping point towards mainstream US sports acceptance of the Cup, that was at the end of the day a disappointing Cup performance after a very good draw.
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