TC
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Post by TC on Oct 25, 2012 12:15:08 GMT -5
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 25, 2012 12:24:01 GMT -5
I wholeheartedly endorse this objective and unbiased analysis!! (But no, these will not be my guesses). ;D Will try to get mine in first couple days of next week. I need to analyze the huge impact of the blockbuster announcements from Gloria Allred and Donald Trump. As well as the completely game-changing endorsement of Obama by Colin Powell, and the equally shocking endorsement of Romney by the CEO of Staples. |
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Oct 25, 2012 16:15:29 GMT -5
You're not being fair. They get until November 1 too ;D |
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Oct 25, 2012 16:22:19 GMT -5
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS OHIO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS FLORIDA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS VIRGINIA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEVADA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS COLORADO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS IOWA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS WISCONSIN'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS THE POPULAR VOTE?
Romney (R)
WHAT IS THE WINNING TOTAL IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? (Number must be between 269 and 538, even if you graduated SFS)
279
WHAT IS THE FIRST NETWORK TO CALL THE ELECTION?
CNN
DO EITHER CHRIS MATTHEWS OR SEAN HANNITY CRY ON TV ON ELECTION NIGHT?
Yes (Well, he at least flips out like he did after the first debate. Also, If I'm right about the election, I'm going to watch all the MSNBC I can. Might even DVR it on election night--only thing more entertaining will be reading the Cuse sites after the Hoyas finish sweeping them out of the Big East)
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Post by EasyEd on Oct 27, 2012 19:23:50 GMT -5
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS OHIO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS FLORIDA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS VIRGINIA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS NEVADA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS COLORADO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS IOWA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS WISCONSIN'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS THE POPULAR VOTE?
Romney (R)
WHAT IS THE WINNING TOTAL IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? 291
WHAT IS THE FIRST NETWORK TO CALL THE ELECTION?
(MS)NBC
DO EITHER CHRIS MATTHEWS OR SEAN HANNITY CRY ON TV ON ELECTION NIGHT?
Yes
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Boz
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Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Oct 30, 2012 14:31:31 GMT -5
Well, I was going to wait another day, but all bets are off now and I believe there will be little to no reliable polling in many swing states between now and election day, particularly in Ohio and Virginia (though we got off pretty light here, all things considered).
I am really bad at math, but I think my EC total is calculated correctly (also assumes a split in Maine). Wisconsin is probably a long shot, but I think Romney gets elected even if he doesn't take that.
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS OHIO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS FLORIDA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS VIRGINIA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS NEVADA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS COLORADO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS IOWA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS WISCONSIN'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS THE POPULAR VOTE?
Romney (R)
WHAT IS THE WINNING TOTAL IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?
292
WHAT IS THE FIRST NETWORK TO CALL THE ELECTION?
CNN
DO EITHER CHRIS MATTHEWS OR SEAN HANNITY CRY ON TV ON ELECTION NIGHT?
No, but Larry O'Donnell does, and Matthews, Maddow, Klein, Scarborough and several others line up to slap him in the face, Airplane-style.
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Oct 31, 2012 16:06:58 GMT -5
Since we have until midnight, I have decided to switch my Colorado and Nevada predictions (which also slightly adjusts my EC total by a few votes).
If this is not kosher/cool with anyone, please let me know. This is about fun, and I'm mostly going on hunches. My hunch on those two just changed today is all. If anyone has a problem, I can go back to my previous picks.
Also, I am looking forward to the three campaign events Obama/Biden have scheduled in "safe" Wisconsin over the next few days. ;D
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Oct 31, 2012 17:22:06 GMT -5
Posted for the benefit of all contest participants: |
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DFW HOYA
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Posts: 5,911
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Post by DFW HOYA on Oct 31, 2012 18:34:26 GMT -5
I'm not in the above contest, but find it telling that the Romney folks are selling the national polling numbers more than any of the battleground state polls. If Romney internal polling was seeing a seismic shift in OH, VA, or CO, the Fox "News Alert" sounder would be activated three times an hour until Tuesday.
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Boz
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123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Oct 31, 2012 19:17:20 GMT -5
Posted for the benefit of all contest participants: That's pretty interesting, since Nate Silver's own blog indicates only two polls being released in the last 48 hours and he conveniently leaves out the poll released a day earlier that lists Romney ahead. Curious, Nate. |
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Post by Problem of Dog on Oct 31, 2012 20:26:53 GMT -5
InTrade has Obama up 7% today alone.
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
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Post by TC on Oct 31, 2012 20:40:58 GMT -5
Since we have until midnight, I have decided to switch my Colorado and Nevada predictions (which also slightly adjusts my EC total by a few votes). If this is not kosher/cool with anyone, please let me know. Boz you have until midnight Nov 1 so definitely go ahead and change. And this is all in good fun and just for bragging rights so please if you haven't entered why not just throw up a post. |
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,398 
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Post by hoyainspirit on Oct 31, 2012 21:38:15 GMT -5
Color me the eternal, complete optimist! ;D
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS OHIO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS FLORIDA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS VIRGINIA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS NEVADA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS COLORADO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS IOWA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS WISCONSIN'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS THE POPULAR VOTE?
Obama (D)
WHAT IS THE WINNING TOTAL IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?
I'm too lazy to figure it out.
WHAT IS THE FIRST NETWORK TO CALL THE ELECTION?
(MS)NBC
DO EITHER CHRIS MATTHEWS OR SEAN HANNITY CRY ON TV ON ELECTION NIGHT?
Yes, and Rush has a complete meltdown on Wed.
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GIGAFAN99
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Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Nov 1, 2012 11:40:04 GMT -5
Posted for the benefit of all contest participants: That's pretty interesting, since Nate Silver's own blog indicates only two polls being released in the last 48 hours and he conveniently leaves out the poll released a day earlier that lists Romney ahead. Curious, Nate. Remember Nate Silver picked 49/50 states in 2008 with his "awesome" model and...the RCP poll of polls picked 48/50 with just a dumb average (North Carolina). At least his model gave Obama a 6.1% spread to the actual 7.2, so worse than FoxNews' final result of Obama +7. Color me unimpressed with Nate Silver. I think he dazzles a lot of people who don't do statistical modeling by "talkin' fancy 'bout numbers". Bottom line is as soon as turnout or one state poll average moves a small amount in a close election, his model is screwed like everyone else's. All predictions in this race are crap shoots because the national poll numbers (Romney), favorability ratings (Romney), job approval ratings (Still positive for Obama), and aggregation of state polling (Obama) show no clear picture of how this breaks. I also think people forget how hard that 2000 election broke towards Gore extremely late. There's an argument to be made, this one is even closer so it really can go either way. But if you like predictive models, Ray Fair still has it too close to call (49% for incumbent party) based on just 4 economic factors...and independent of the candidates representing the parties or any polls. Very similar to 2000. |
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Nov 1, 2012 13:19:59 GMT -5
Since we have until midnight, I have decided to switch my Colorado and Nevada predictions (which also slightly adjusts my EC total by a few votes). If this is not kosher/cool with anyone, please let me know. Boz you have until midnight Nov 1 so definitely go ahead and change. And this is all in good fun and just for bragging rights so please if you haven't entered why not just throw up a post. Too bad we don't have mustaches. |
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
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Post by TC on Nov 1, 2012 13:54:43 GMT -5
[ Color me unimpressed with Nate Silver. I think he dazzles a lot of people who don't do statistical modeling by "talkin' fancy 'bout numbers Better phrased as : writes really well and explains the statistics in a way that a layman can understand. And his graphs and breakdowns are more interesting than what the other free sites offer. If you believe all that....and believe Silver is wrong, why not throw an entry in here? C'mon GIGA. And KC and DFW and elvado and Buckets and bin and strummer85 and whoever else I'm forgetting that posts on here all the time. It's a free contest and it's easy to fill out and we're just doing it for fun and maybe to cut down on the amount of woofing, but the more the merrier. Entries close at midnight tonight. |
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Nov 1, 2012 14:02:14 GMT -5
Color me unimpressed with Nate Silver. I think he dazzles a lot of people who don't do statistical modeling by "talkin' fancy 'bout numbers". Bottom line is as soon as turnout or one state poll average moves a small amount in a close election, his model is screwed like everyone else's. Any election prediction model is a tool with flaws. Silver's model is better than most, is high visibility, and gives us something to talk about. Just because folks post stuff from 538 to the message board doesn't mean they think it is genius/gospel. Statistical modeling elsewhere in pop culture (college football, for example) isn't perfect either, but we still talk about it. If I post the BCS standings to the college football thread it's not an endorsement of Jeff Sagarin, though I appreciate what he does. |
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prhoya
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Posts: 23,604
Member is Online
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Post by prhoya on Nov 1, 2012 14:07:24 GMT -5
TC, thanks again for doing this.
BTW, why do the entries close tonight?
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,480
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Post by TC on Nov 1, 2012 14:19:55 GMT -5
TC, thanks again for doing this. BTW, why do the entries close tonight? It is completely arbitrary, I figured that polls would be relatively steady by this time and there probably needs to be some sort of deadline. Most of the other prediction contests I saw out there closed yesterday (I entered the David Frum one on The Daily Beast and the one on 270towin.com) but I figured that Halloween was a bad day to close something out. Kinda wish someone did an ESPN or Yahoo!-style fantasy game out of this where everyone can join a group, but I couldn't find one. |
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Nov 1, 2012 17:50:20 GMT -5
You convinced me, TC. I will make two predictions not listed; the winner will win a plurality but not majority of the popular vote. Two, we'll only kind of know Wednesday.
I think the election is breaking for Romney in this order: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire...will he get there in Ohio or Wisconsin? Stay tuned election fans.
WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS OHIO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS FLORIDA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS VIRGINIA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS NEVADA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS COLORADO'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Romney (R)
WHO WINS IOWA'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS WISCONSIN'S ELECTORAL VOTES?
Obama (D)
WHO WINS THE POPULAR VOTE?
Obama (D)
WHAT IS THE WINNING TOTAL IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? (Number must be between 269 and 538, even if you graduated SFS)
277
WHAT IS THE FIRST NETWORK TO CALL THE ELECTION?
CNN
DO EITHER CHRIS MATTHEWS OR SEAN HANNITY CRY ON TV ON ELECTION NIGHT?
Yes, Matthews regardless of who wins.
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