zxhoya
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Post by zxhoya on Nov 10, 2016 13:39:28 GMT -5
I am far from an expert on the NBA salary cap, but I think there may be some reasons beyond Otto's on court play that impacted the Wiz decision not to offer Otto the extension I am fairly sure that David Falk is his agent. Falk usually recommends that his client decline the 4th year extension if it is offered. This would make the player a full unrestricted FA at the end of year 4. This is what Monroe did. Risky for Otto in that you turn down a lot of guaranteed money by turning down the extension, but it also potentially maximizes your contract/team options as an unrestricted FA at the end of year 4. So the wizards may have known that otto/Falk would decline the 4th year option if offered. If that is the case - the Wiz may have figured it is better not to offer it. That way - Otto becomes a restricted FA at the end of year 4. So the Wiz would still have the right to keep him by matching any contract he is offered, rather than risk losing him as an unrestricted FA if they offer the extension and Otto/Falk turn it down. It also gives the team another year of play to assess Otto's long term value. The risk for the wiz is that Otto has a good/great season - leading to another team offering him a significantly bigger contract than what the Wiz might have been able to get him for with an extension before the 4th year. But, again, if they were pretty certain Otto/Falk would turn down any extension offer - then the Wizards may well be in a better position not to make the offer at all, and retain their rights to match any contract offer otto receives at the end of season 4. There may also be some "cap hold" advantages for the Wizards in not signing otto to an extension and waiting until after season 4 to negotiate with him as an unrestricted FA, but I don't know nearly enough about that aspect of the NBA labor rules to understand this angle. Thanks for that informative post vv83. David Falk was Otto's agent and still is as far as I know (OK, that's not very far!) In addition to maximizing Otto's earnings over the life of his career, I imagine Falk and Porter are also looking at his best chance to build a winning legacy. At this point, that doesn't appear to be a path that would include the Wizards. Personally, I hope he gets a huge contract, but with a first class organization -- e.g San Antonio. Falk knows the league and all it's key owners and execs. Hopefully he will guide Otto to a optimal landing spot. Signing for a few million less, is not as important as being in a winning environment... at least in my estimation. At some point, the value of an additional million or two is outweighed by the chance to contribute to a winning team. Here's hoping Otto gets both. Well as a Otto fan and a Wizards fan I hope he remains a Wizard. Falk is his agent and as many know, Falk is a Wizards fan and I believe a season ticket holder but he's a 1st class agent so I'm sure Otto's future is the only thing that matters to him.
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rockhoya
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Nov 10, 2016 13:49:04 GMT -5
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Post by rockhoya on Nov 10, 2016 13:49:04 GMT -5
So has Otto moved out of "official" bust category? Hope so - and hoping the wizards will regret not thinking him enough of a priority to extend already. 34 point games help. And if you re-read my post that you dug up, I wasn't calling him a bust, just noting that was the feeling in DC. I do think he has been a disappointment for a player taken 3rd overall - but I love the kid, and hopefully he can keep up his strong play from last night. How many players would you take ahead of him in that draft?
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jester
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Post by jester on Nov 10, 2016 14:00:18 GMT -5
We are only 7 games into season but just to highlight Otto's start:
Of all NBA players his age of 23 or younger, he is second in win shares to Anthony Davis so far.
Of all NBA players 25 or younger, he is third in win shares behind MVP candidates Kawahi Leonard (age 25) and Anthony Davis (age 23). Giannis is fourth (age 22).
That's good company on the advanced metrics side.
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Post by wahoohoya on Nov 10, 2016 14:20:17 GMT -5
Hope so - and hoping the wizards will regret not thinking him enough of a priority to extend already. 34 point games help. And if you re-read my post that you dug up, I wasn't calling him a bust, just noting that was the feeling in DC. I do think he has been a disappointment for a player taken 3rd overall - but I love the kid, and hopefully he can keep up his strong play from last night. How many players would you take ahead of him in that draft? Not directed at me but probably only one - Giannis. But regardless of the strength of that draft, the common argument is that Otto hasn't been living up to what a 3rd overall pick looks like. Which is somewhat fair but a poor argument to begin with as there are many 3rd overall picks that didn't become superstars. With that said, I think Otto can still become what people were hoping a "3rd overall pick" should be. He has an elite mid-range game and looks to be the Wizards best defender (and definitely the smartest team defender). His three point shot is becoming more reliable and his offensive rebounding is a weapon. The next step in his progression is driving and finishing more in traffic and getting to the line more - and I think he will add that dynamic to his game (not saying he will ever be a "take his man off the dribble type of creator" but he needs to be more opportunistic there). In any event, I think the bust talk is dead - just needs to show more consistency and not allow himself to disappear too often.
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jester
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Post by jester on Nov 10, 2016 14:21:21 GMT -5
Hope so - and hoping the wizards will regret not thinking him enough of a priority to extend already. 34 point games help. And if you re-read my post that you dug up, I wasn't calling him a bust, just noting that was the feeling in DC. I do think he has been a disappointment for a player taken 3rd overall - but I love the kid, and hopefully he can keep up his strong play from last night. How many players would you take ahead of him in that draft? Looking backward at advanced metrics, the following players would have had to be selected by Wizards fans to be more happy with production to this point through career: Rudy Gobert, Mason Plumee, Giannis, Steven Adams, Dieng, Cody Zeller, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kelly Olynyk. Take Victor Oladipo off board as already selected. Behind Otto would be CJ McCollum, Nerlens Noel, and Andre Roberson. I'll also throw Dennis Schroeder, Shabazz Muhammed, Mike Muscala in there (productive this year). At the time Wizards needed a forward, had a decent front court and have had a terrible record with developing projects/intl players. So that takes off some of the big men as options. They probably picked right even if safe pick. I think most people never considered Otto would bust (just not live up to #3 slot). He was always gonna be a productive NBA baller + positive locker room influence, which is what Anthony Bennet (#1) and perhaps Nerlen Noel (#6) and Ben Mclemore (#7) are not.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Nov 10, 2016 14:27:05 GMT -5
How many players would you take ahead of him in that draft? Not directed at me but probably only one - Giannis. But regardless of the strength of that draft, the common argument is that Otto hasn't been living up to what a 3rd overall pick looks like. Which is somewhat fair but a poor argument to begin with as there are many 3rd overall picks that didn't become superstars. Here are the #3 overall picks from the past years--I think it's fair so say Otto isn't the best of them, but as you said, most #3 picks aren't All Stars. 2016--Jaylen Brown 2015--Jahlil Okafor 2014--Joel Embiid 2012--Bradley Beal 2011--Enes Kanter 2010--Derrick Favors 2009--James Harden 2008--O.J. Mayo 2007--Al Horford 2006--Adam Morrison
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Nov 10, 2016 14:44:19 GMT -5
We are only 7 games into season but just to highlight Otto's start: Of all NBA players his age of 23 or younger, he is second in win shares to Anthony Davis so far. Of all NBA players 25 or younger, he is third in win shares behind MVP candidates Kawahi Leonard (age 25) and Anthony Davis (age 23). Giannis is fourth (age 22). That's good company on the advanced metrics side. For what it's worth, Rodney Pryor is already 24.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Nov 10, 2016 15:35:35 GMT -5
We are only 7 games into season but just to highlight Otto's start: Of all NBA players his age of 23 or younger, he is second in win shares to Anthony Davis so far. Of all NBA players 25 or younger, he is third in win shares behind MVP candidates Kawahi Leonard (age 25) and Anthony Davis (age 23). Giannis is fourth (age 22). That's good company on the advanced metrics side. Also, he sports a 61% shooting percentage - good for #1 in the league for players who take at least 10 shots a game. And, he is averaging 8.3 rebounds....good for #3 at the wing position behind LeBron and Giannis. And also shooting 91% from the FT line.
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Post by wahoohoya on Nov 10, 2016 15:42:13 GMT -5
Not directed at me but probably only one - Giannis. But regardless of the strength of that draft, the common argument is that Otto hasn't been living up to what a 3rd overall pick looks like. Which is somewhat fair but a poor argument to begin with as there are many 3rd overall picks that didn't become superstars. Here are the #3 overall picks from the past years--I think it's fair so say Otto isn't the best of them, but as you said, most #3 picks aren't All Stars. 2016--Jaylen Brown 2015--Jahlil Okafor 2014--Joel Embiid 2012--Bradley Beal 2011--Enes Kanter 2010--Derrick Favors 2009--James Harden 2008--O.J. Mayo 2007--Al Horford 2006--Adam Morrison Thanks for compiling. Definitely some solid players in there, but yeah, that's my point. Not every 3rd overall pick is a Carmelo Anthony or James Harden type player - but that's the standard being set. You hope you are getting that, but those players don't come around every year. When all is said and done, I can see Otto holding his own value-wise against most of that group - and may have already passed Beal in terms of importance to his team.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Nov 10, 2016 15:47:46 GMT -5
@ Syracuse part II for Otto last night..
Love players who have a mid-range game..
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 10, 2016 22:15:49 GMT -5
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Nov 11, 2016 12:43:09 GMT -5
I am far from an expert on the NBA salary cap, but I think there may be some reasons beyond Otto's on court play that impacted the Wiz decision not to offer Otto the extension I am fairly sure that David Falk is his agent. Falk usually recommends that his client decline the 4th year extension if it is offered. This would make the player a full unrestricted FA at the end of year 4. This is what Monroe did. Risky for Otto in that you turn down a lot of guaranteed money by turning down the extension, but it also potentially maximizes your contract/team options as an unrestricted FA at the end of year 4. So the wizards may have known that otto/Falk would decline the 4th year option if offered. If that is the case - the Wiz may have figured it is better not to offer it. That way - Otto becomes a restricted FA at the end of year 4. So the Wiz would still have the right to keep him by matching any contract he is offered, rather than risk losing him as an unrestricted FA if they offer the extension and Otto/Falk turn it down. It also gives the team another year of play to assess Otto's long term value. The risk for the wiz is that Otto has a good/great season - leading to another team offering him a significantly bigger contract than what the Wiz might have been able to get him for with an extension before the 4th year. But, again, if they were pretty certain Otto/Falk would turn down any extension offer - then the Wizards may well be in a better position not to make the offer at all, and retain their rights to match any contract offer otto receives at the end of season 4. There may also be some "cap hold" advantages for the Wizards in not signing otto to an extension and waiting until after season 4 to negotiate with him as an unrestricted FA, but I don't know nearly enough about that aspect of the NBA labor rules to understand this angle. Thanks for that informative post vv83. David Falk was Otto's agent and still is as far as I know (OK, that's not very far!) In addition to maximizing Otto's earnings over the life of his career, I imagine Falk and Porter are also looking at his best chance to build a winning legacy. At this point, that doesn't appear to be a path that would include the Wizards. Personally, I hope he gets a huge contract, but with a first class organization -- e.g San Antonio. Falk knows the league and all it's key owners and execs. Hopefully he will guide Otto to a optimal landing spot. Signing for a few million less, is not as important as being in a winning environment... at least in my estimation. At some point, the value of an additional million or two is outweighed by the chance to contribute to a winning team. Here's hoping Otto gets both. If we fire Dell Demps and (maybe) Alvin Gentry, pls let him come to the Pelicans.
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Post by trillesthoya on Nov 11, 2016 12:51:44 GMT -5
If Otto manages to score 18-19 ppg by end of the season, does that put him in a good position for MIP?
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jester
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Post by jester on Nov 11, 2016 16:33:26 GMT -5
If Otto manages to score 18-19 ppg by end of the season, does that put him in a good position for MIP? Sure. Ty Warren averaged 11ppg last season and is now at 20ppg, also a good candidate. Has taken similar trajectory than Otto in terms of playing time/productivity.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Nov 11, 2016 19:42:18 GMT -5
If Otto manages to score 18-19 ppg by end of the season, does that put him in a good position for MIP? Definitely.
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Nov 11, 2016 21:32:36 GMT -5
That was our Otto!
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CaliHoya
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Post by CaliHoya on Nov 12, 2016 10:26:55 GMT -5
Otto is now among the top 30-40 players in the league for PER and Win Shares per 48 minutes. He has the highest rating among all Wizards. I know his stats are somewhat skewed by that amazing game versus Boston, but if he keeps this pace on average, he'll justify a contract bigger than Beal's contract. The Wizards gambled on not extending him and it doesn't look like it will pay off.
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Nov 12, 2016 21:43:37 GMT -5
The guys are having a rough time tonight (e.g., Otto 1-8). Hollis and Greg equally unproductive so far.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2016 9:59:32 GMT -5
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zxhoya
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Post by zxhoya on Dec 6, 2016 20:24:38 GMT -5
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