Post by canissaxa on Dec 10, 2014 14:36:28 GMT -5
I wrote a number of words diagnosing Otto's pros and cons this year (see below). Most of this is still relevant.
Only change is what other posters have noted:
- His midrange shooting went from league leading to pretty bad almost overnight.
- He's gotten dramatically more passive out there. More standing. Less driving. Less moving off the ball.
Could be lingering effect of injury.
And of course, Bulter is absolutely killing it offensively and not struggling as much to get around P&Rs on defense.
I've watched a lot of Otto in the early days. Love the way he plays game--letting things come to him but doing every little thing so well that he can still take over the game--so I was really disappointed with how quickly NBA fandom deemed him a bust last year without acknowledging his injury and his coach's incompetence in player development.
Really happy to see him getting some solid PT and results this year. Hope his injury isn't too serious and he gets back out there soon.
Wanted to share a couple of things for folks that are interested, but don't have the stomach to watch a Randy-Wittman-coached team (in fairness, I've been skipping any non-Otto minutes).
- Earlier posters have pointed out how well Otto's been shooting. He's one of 4 players in the league shooting over 60% on mid-range jump shots (minimum of 20 attempts). Others are Dirk Nowitzki, Luke Ridnour, and Enes Kanter. Also great percentages at the rim and from 3.
- Part of the efficiency is that he's not shooting a great deal (14.4% useage), but only some of it is on him. Both point guards he plays with (miller and wall) have a fair amount of shoot-first mentality in them. Miller in particular is a great offensive player, but he calls his own number a lot for a PG. Kevin Seraphim also plays with Otto a lot and is a black hole on the block (albeit, one that's shooting a bit better than he was last year). And Wall doesn't quite have the trust that Otto is going to knock down a kick-out 3 the way that Beal, Ariza and Webster do--this is probably fair. Otto has never been a super quick first step guy who makes something out of nothing on a regular basis, and Wittman's sets seem to mostly be either pick and rolls, wall ISO drives (w/ layups or kickouts for 3) or post ups. None of this is a great fit for Otto, who would do much better in a system with more ball movement and off the ball picks. He might do OK as the screen man on the pick and roll, but probably not as good as Gortat or Nene and even more experienced small forwards like Pierce or Ariza don't seem to be involved in 1-3 P&Rs in Wittman's system.
- Speaking of off them ball picks, he's doing a lot of this to help post players get better position. Great example of him picking Kevin Love here: vine.co/v/OJ2QEqptFtA
- He's moving off the ball less on O than he was early in the year, but still more than others on the Wiz. I think that's part of the Wiz's system because he used to be the only one--part of what makes the Wiz so unwatchable for me. He could be moving less because his work to get open is never rewarded.
- He's also playing great on D. Here's a new stat from NBA.com that shows him holding his man an average of 10% points worse on shooting percentage: stats.nba.com/player/#!/203490/tracking/defense/ He's effective in every range--which is rare. This stat isn't sortable, so you have to check each comparison individually, but one a couple of spot checks against elite wing defenders (e.g. Tony Allen), Otto's numbers are a step down, but still quite good. Other relevant comparisons: Paul Pierce is 4% better than average; Trevor Ariza is 6.7% worse than average! Thought Ariza was supposed to be a 3&D player and you'd think anyone's stats on Houston would benefit from having Howard behind them.
- His strength on defense is his ability to hedge and recover to shooters. He's gotten burned with a couple of 3-point fouls from clever players jumping into him or kicking a leg strategically, but he's getting better at this.
- He's also really good at denying the ball to key players. This is NOT a common tactic in the NBA from what I can see and has definitely frustrated a few players who then play Otto way tighter on D than they would otherwise. Unfortunately, this works because Otto doesn't have the first step to get by someone in his grill.
- Also unfortunately, Wittman doesn't play him on the opponent's key players that often, preferring to hide him on weak offensive players. While I disagree with almost everything Wittman does, he may be justified in this because Otto's main defensive weakness is ability to get around screens. I've only seen him get on top of a screen once or twice and he almost always allows the switch. This is probably OK for him as he does OK bodying up most bigs and bothering them with length, but it leaves the Wizard's bigs guarding a smaller quicker player and they're getting abused.
- Part of this is that Wittman (probably because of Beal's injury) is playing Otto a bit more at shooting guard than I think is good for him. Against Dallas, Otto was matched up with Monta Ellis on a few occasions and had similar matchups with some quick Milwaukee players in their first match up. These are tough assignments for anyone, but very tough for Otto with a much higher center of gravity than his opponent. I can understand the rationale though since the Wiz have to hide Miller on D and Wall is more effective on O if he can rest a bit on D.
- Playing outside also impacts Otto's rebounding numbers as his nose for the ball isn't really useful when he's far from the hoop (for both O & D rebounds) and has responsibility to get back to prevent fast breaks (for O rebounds). This is probably his biggest challenge in transitioning to the NBA game. Can he bulk up enough to play 3 or even 4 in small ball lineups where he has an advantage in quickness (and can still rebound a bit) or can he quicken up enough to play more outside and have his advantage be length.
Anyway, hope some of you find this interesting and really glad the Hoyas are back on the court too! Very excited to see this freshman class continue to impress!
Only change is what other posters have noted:
- His midrange shooting went from league leading to pretty bad almost overnight.
- He's gotten dramatically more passive out there. More standing. Less driving. Less moving off the ball.
Could be lingering effect of injury.
And of course, Bulter is absolutely killing it offensively and not struggling as much to get around P&Rs on defense.
Really happy to see him getting some solid PT and results this year. Hope his injury isn't too serious and he gets back out there soon.
Wanted to share a couple of things for folks that are interested, but don't have the stomach to watch a Randy-Wittman-coached team (in fairness, I've been skipping any non-Otto minutes).
- Earlier posters have pointed out how well Otto's been shooting. He's one of 4 players in the league shooting over 60% on mid-range jump shots (minimum of 20 attempts). Others are Dirk Nowitzki, Luke Ridnour, and Enes Kanter. Also great percentages at the rim and from 3.
- Part of the efficiency is that he's not shooting a great deal (14.4% useage), but only some of it is on him. Both point guards he plays with (miller and wall) have a fair amount of shoot-first mentality in them. Miller in particular is a great offensive player, but he calls his own number a lot for a PG. Kevin Seraphim also plays with Otto a lot and is a black hole on the block (albeit, one that's shooting a bit better than he was last year). And Wall doesn't quite have the trust that Otto is going to knock down a kick-out 3 the way that Beal, Ariza and Webster do--this is probably fair. Otto has never been a super quick first step guy who makes something out of nothing on a regular basis, and Wittman's sets seem to mostly be either pick and rolls, wall ISO drives (w/ layups or kickouts for 3) or post ups. None of this is a great fit for Otto, who would do much better in a system with more ball movement and off the ball picks. He might do OK as the screen man on the pick and roll, but probably not as good as Gortat or Nene and even more experienced small forwards like Pierce or Ariza don't seem to be involved in 1-3 P&Rs in Wittman's system.
- Speaking of off them ball picks, he's doing a lot of this to help post players get better position. Great example of him picking Kevin Love here: vine.co/v/OJ2QEqptFtA
- He's moving off the ball less on O than he was early in the year, but still more than others on the Wiz. I think that's part of the Wiz's system because he used to be the only one--part of what makes the Wiz so unwatchable for me. He could be moving less because his work to get open is never rewarded.
- He's also playing great on D. Here's a new stat from NBA.com that shows him holding his man an average of 10% points worse on shooting percentage: stats.nba.com/player/#!/203490/tracking/defense/ He's effective in every range--which is rare. This stat isn't sortable, so you have to check each comparison individually, but one a couple of spot checks against elite wing defenders (e.g. Tony Allen), Otto's numbers are a step down, but still quite good. Other relevant comparisons: Paul Pierce is 4% better than average; Trevor Ariza is 6.7% worse than average! Thought Ariza was supposed to be a 3&D player and you'd think anyone's stats on Houston would benefit from having Howard behind them.
- His strength on defense is his ability to hedge and recover to shooters. He's gotten burned with a couple of 3-point fouls from clever players jumping into him or kicking a leg strategically, but he's getting better at this.
- He's also really good at denying the ball to key players. This is NOT a common tactic in the NBA from what I can see and has definitely frustrated a few players who then play Otto way tighter on D than they would otherwise. Unfortunately, this works because Otto doesn't have the first step to get by someone in his grill.
- Also unfortunately, Wittman doesn't play him on the opponent's key players that often, preferring to hide him on weak offensive players. While I disagree with almost everything Wittman does, he may be justified in this because Otto's main defensive weakness is ability to get around screens. I've only seen him get on top of a screen once or twice and he almost always allows the switch. This is probably OK for him as he does OK bodying up most bigs and bothering them with length, but it leaves the Wizard's bigs guarding a smaller quicker player and they're getting abused.
- Part of this is that Wittman (probably because of Beal's injury) is playing Otto a bit more at shooting guard than I think is good for him. Against Dallas, Otto was matched up with Monta Ellis on a few occasions and had similar matchups with some quick Milwaukee players in their first match up. These are tough assignments for anyone, but very tough for Otto with a much higher center of gravity than his opponent. I can understand the rationale though since the Wiz have to hide Miller on D and Wall is more effective on O if he can rest a bit on D.
- Playing outside also impacts Otto's rebounding numbers as his nose for the ball isn't really useful when he's far from the hoop (for both O & D rebounds) and has responsibility to get back to prevent fast breaks (for O rebounds). This is probably his biggest challenge in transitioning to the NBA game. Can he bulk up enough to play 3 or even 4 in small ball lineups where he has an advantage in quickness (and can still rebound a bit) or can he quicken up enough to play more outside and have his advantage be length.
Anyway, hope some of you find this interesting and really glad the Hoyas are back on the court too! Very excited to see this freshman class continue to impress!
