Who (else) are we rooting for in BE? (seeding)

[canissaxa]

I know it's early for this conversation, but I caught a bit of USF/ND and SUcks/Cinci today, and other than requisite vitriol re: SUcks, I wasn't exactly sure who we should be rooting for/against to put us in the best position for the BE tourney.

By my thinking, Nova, WVU, and SUcks are almost uncatchable for the top 3 seeds. Per the recent HoyaProspectus article, Nova has a pretty tough rest of the way (as does WVU), but still, Pomeroy has both ending up with only 4 losses each--hard for us or anyone else to catch them without a pretty significant stumble (and a pretty incredible 6-1 or better finish by us).

I think we seal the 4 seed with a 12-6 record--only Pitt seems a realistic probability to match, but we hold tie-breaker.

If we drop more than 3 more, I think we're in 5-8 range.

It gets complicated if we finish 11-7. Pomeroy has us most likely to end up at 11-7--in a 3 way tie with Pitt and MU. Don't look now, but in that scenario, MU would likely win the tie-breaker on the mini-conference (since they are 2-0 if they beat Pitt at home--a loss would put everyone at 1-1 and in a set of rules too complicated/speculative to into, MU still looks good).

So we root against MU and Pitt, I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure we root for the Hoyas in any game they play.

Otherwise? Against Louisville probably? Don't really think Cinci or ND is going anywhere, so I'm OK if they win. Also, any win by the bottom dwellers against anyone other than us is probably good.

What does the board think?

[FLHoya]

I guess I root against teams behind us that own tiebreakers over us (Marquette, South Florida), inasmuch as I see our biggest goal right now being a Top 4 seed and a double-bye. IMO, winning the BET is going to require going through Syracuse, Villanova, or both, so might as well do that on an extra day's rest.

Here are the seeds through Sunday's games:

(16) Depaul/(9) Cincinnati vs. (8) Marquette ---------> (1) Syracuse


(13) Seton Hall/(12) Providence vs. (5) Pittsburgh ----------> (4) Georgetown


(10) South Florida/(15) Rutgers vs. (7) Notre Dame ----------> (2) Villanova


(11) Connecticut/(14) St. John's vs. (6) Louisville -------------> (3) West Virginia

[rosslynhoya]

Nova has a pretty tough rest of the way (as does WVU), but still

They play each other ... TWICE!!! That's two losses.

I think BET seed 1 and 2 are out of reach and to be honest, 3 and 4 are equal seeds. We just need to TCB and hold on to what we got to avoid dropping to 5th.

"I'm pretty sure we root for the Hoyas in any game they play."

I don't know about you, but I think all but a handful of the posters here root for the Hoyas in any game they play. On the other hand, I also don't think going 6-1 the rest of the way would be "pretty incredible." In fact, you've got to be a bit of a downer to predict three more losses for us in conference play. A road loss at WVU or at Lville? Both? And then what, at the RAC? Disturbing....

[jerseyhoya34]

Here are seeds based on Warren Nolan projections FWIW:

(16) Depaul/(9) ND vs. (8) Marquette --> (1) Syracuse

(13) Providence/(12) UCONN vs. (5) Pittsburgh --> (4) Georgetown

(10) Cincy/(15) Rutgers v. (7) USF --> (2) Nova

(11) SHU/(14) SJU v. (6) Louisville --> (3) WVU

[TBird41]

I would greatly prefer that our road to the Big East Finals goes through Nova over WVU or Cuse. I am rooting for the Hoyas to get whatever seed in the top 4 has us scheduled to play Nova in the semis

[longtimesaxa]

First, I'd like to see South Florida again.

[JB5]

I think the rule of thumb is: always root against SU.

If we win our games, what the others do doesn't matter.

[canissaxa]

Feb 7, 2010 16:16:50 GMT -5 rosslynhoya said:

I don't know about you, but I think all but a handful of the posters here root for the Hoyas in any game they play.

I appreciate the righteous indignation in defense of the obvious, but this was tongue in cheek.

Feb 7, 2010 16:16:50 GMT -5 rosslynhoya said:

On the other hand, I also don't think going 6-1 the rest of the way would be "pretty incredible." In fact, you've got to be a bit of a downer to predict three more losses for us in conference play. A road loss at WVU or at Lville? Both? And then what, at the RAC? Disturbing....

I don't mean to be a downer, and to be clear, I'm not predicting 3 more losses. I think 5-2 is definitely doable and the most likely scenario. I also think that realistically, without rose-colored-glasses, 4-3 is more likely than 6-1. The best predictive model developed to date for college basketball (kenpom.com) predicts 4-3. I think 5-2 is more likely because Ken's system doesn't give us credit for recent improvement and the fact that a short-benched team doesn't tend to run up the score as much as a deep-benched team.

But a lot of anti-stats guys don't like the Pythagorean expectation argument. So if you ignore stats/models and just look at games, I'd say that WVU away and SUcks at home are both very tough wins (doable, but very tough). Louisville on the road fighting for their tourney life is tough. For that matter, Providence, ND, and Cinci are all respectable teams who are fighting for the dance. Are we better? Sure. But we can still stumble or hit a hot team on a given night. And in case we do, my purpose with this thread was simply to poll the board about who we're rooting against.

[HoNYaSaxa]

Feb 7, 2010 16:25:41 GMT -5 TBird41 said:

I would greatly prefer that our road to the Big East Finals goes through Nova over WVU or Cuse. I am rooting for the Hoyas to get whatever seed in the top 4 has us scheduled to play Nova in the semis

^^^^

Agreed. Would love to catch the #3 seed with Nova or WVU at #2.

If WVU beats Nova tomorrow and ultimately finishes #2, a #4 Nova could take down #1 Cuse, giving us a great matchup for the title. Clearly this is a best-case: The road to the BET title goes through Syracuse.

[hoyainspirit]

So, for tonight, WVU or Nova?

[Boz]

Feb 8, 2010 11:11:56 GMT -5 hoyainspirit said:

So, for tonight, WVU or Nova?

Meteor.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

i'd say it's best for us if they split so WV since they're @ home.

[rosslynhoya]

We have played Nova twice and we will play the 'eers only once. If Nova sweeps WVA then our RPI etc. will be better than if they split or get swept. Aside from the beancounting, I think it's also a moral validation of our win over Nova if they bounce back to pound the everliving crud out of West Virginia like a #2 team should. And back to my comment above, we're not likely to catch up to Nova in terms of BET seed, so for the rest of the regular season, if they win out, it doesn't really harm our standing at all.

[superan]

Yeah I think having 'Nova win is probably a good thing.

[williambraskyiii]

Agree - need to root for Nova. We can still catch WVU but they have to stumble and we need to take care of business.

[HoyaChris]

Nova, which gives us the best chance at a #3 seed with Syracuse winning the league and Nova on our side of the bracket.

[vcjack]

I want that 3 seed because I want us to finally be in the late game. I'm sick of trying to get to NYC at 11 AM from DC to catch our first game

[CTHoya08]

Villanova. As stated above, we have a better chance of catching WVU in the standings, and the minor RPI boost is nice too.

On top of that, as much as Villanova is our biggest rival after Syracuse, they are not the team I hate most after Syracuse. I find WVU much more offensive.

[Elvado]

Feb 8, 2010 13:58:28 GMT -5 CTHoya08 said:

Villanova. As stated above, we have a better chance of catching WVU in the standings, and the minor RPI boost is nice too.

On top of that, as much as Villanova is our biggest rival after Syracuse, they are not the team I hate most after Syracuse. I find WVU much more offensive.

While I too find WVU offensive, unless and until they coke their way to a fluke NCAA title win over GU, they will never occupy the place of hate that those Main Line MFers hold...

[vcjack]

The eers have been settling for too many jumpers and many of Nova's drives have been... impressive.


And its interesting that they have built a 9 point lead with Scottie mostly on the bench