2012 Election Thread

[jerseyhoya34]

The recent "Values" Voters Straw Poll came out as follows:

1. Huckabee (28%)
2. Romney/Pawlenty/Palin/Pence (12%)
6. Newt Gingrich

Jindal and Santorum finished in the "also receiving votes" grouping with Ron Paul.
* * * * *
I've consistently said that Huckabee would be the most appealing of these potential candidates. He appears to be genuine, even if a little quirky. I do not sense that he will stoke the kind of junk that Romney wants to stoke or that Palin stokes. Huckabee also marginalizes showmanship and pandering of Romney.

Interestingly, Palin did not speak at the Summit, and some are considering whether in fact Andrea Mitchell is right and Palin is sitting out 2012.

[Boz]

FWIW, my opinions are:

-- Palin will sit out 2012.

-- I think Romney will run. The guy needs a charisma injection, but he is a good candidate, especially on economic issues.

-- I'm not sure about Huckabee, despite these results. I'm sure he is intrigued by them, but I get the feeling he likes his role as a pundit, and am not convinced he will get back into the mix.

-- Pawlenty will probably run as well, is probably a better candidate than Romney

-- I doubt that Pence runs.

-- And, as much as I would like him to, Newt Gingrich will not be running for President.

-- Bobby Jindal is going to be the #1 choice as running mate for the Republican nominee, no matter who that nominee is.

-- Santorum, no, but I expect he might get back into Pennsylvania politics.

Finally, there is a very strong chance that the eventual Republican nominee will be none of these people.

[jgalt]

Sept 23, 2009 10:17:06 GMT -5 Boz said:

-- I'm not sure about Huckabee, despite these results. I'm sure he is intrigued by them, but I get the feeling he likes his role as a pundit, and am not convinced he will get back into the mix.

I dont think he will either. but if he is still on TV in mid 2011 there will be alot of people who will want him to. If he had gone back into politics he probably would have faded into relative obscurity, TV was a smart move for him if he ever wants to run again.

[jerseyhoya34]

We can agree to disagree on Romney. I think the effect of his economic appeal may be overstated in a national election in the sense that we do not tend to elect issue candidates. In order to even get the nomination, he'll have to give us something on foreign policy beyond running a successful Olympics. The charisma problem also affects his ability to command party unity. In the 2008 primaries, it was no secret that he Editeded off McCain and Huckabee. Nonetheless, his name will consistently be on the radar until primary election contests merit otherwise. His Massachusetts connection may also play poorly in the currently Republican regions.

The comparison I make for Pawlenty is Evan Bayh. I just don't see how his personality or appeal rises above the asystole level. More importantly, he always seems to be on the "short lists" only to find a way off. In 2008, Pawlenty was passed over for Sarah Palin. That's not a good bullet point on the resume. In fairness to Pawlenty, Bayh has been on short lists for the last 3 elections.

I would also like to see Newt run, particularly because I think he could re-nationalize the Republican Party and has the intelligence and courage to pull it off. He could also make a valuable contribution as a VP given his savvy and policy gravitas.

[Boz]

If there's one thing that Newt does, and does intelligently and consistently, it is bring ideas to the table.

And he's got lots of them on any issue you want to discuss, from education, health care and energy policy (including alternative energy incentivisation) to all areas of international affairs.

Now, you may not agree with his ideas, of course (and I am sure many of you don't), but Newt can never be dismissed as just being the contrarian with no solutions.

Not to say that he doesn't engage in political gamesmanship at all times, of course he does, but I can't remember a single time I've heard him speak in the last few years where he hasn't tried to present his solutions for America, along with whatever criticisms he may offer.

I just don't think he has a Presidential campaign in him, much to my chagrin. I also think he's pretty well aware of what he's in for from the media if he throws his hat in the ring.

What the Republican party needs is a Newt prodigee. Someone who can bring a lot of those ideas, but maybe without Newt's baggage. In my opinion, Paul Ryan is one of those people, but he's not nearly ready for a national campaign.

[Bando]

In '08, Huckabee was an entirely regional candidate, winning only southern states with large evangelical populations. Winning the Value Voters straw poll doesn't make me think he's broadened his support at all.

Romney's definitely going to run, and so will Pawlenty. Pawlenty will get the votes of economic conservatives who are still social conservative enough not to vote for a Mormon. Romney gets hosed again.

I think we're looking an uncharismatic white guy (Pawlenty) who'll be better positioned among social conservatives than McCain was. Unless someone new comes along (or Palin jumps in), I don't think that can beat Obama.

[SFHoya99]

Huckabee strikes me as likeable as well, but eventually he's so much more genuine on policy than other politicians that he states a belief that will alienate undecideds and the middle.

I'm just not sure that there's enough crossover for him to win.

[jerseyhoya34]

www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/29/multiple-police-officers-_n_373119.html

Willie Horton redux here?

It is a shame if this person turns out to have done it, particularly since Huckabee is among the more responsible of Republican contenders. In recent days, Huckabee seemed to have been shying away from running in any event, likely to the detriment of a thoughtful debate.

[theexorcist]

Nov 29, 2009 22:04:30 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/29/multiple-police-officers-_n_373119.html

Willie Horton redux here?

It is a shame if this person turns out to have done it, particularly since Huckabee is among the more responsible of Republican contenders. In recent days, Huckabee seemed to have been shying away from running in any event, likely to the detriment of a thoughtful debate.

Huckabee's a nut who wants government mandates galore for things like health. If you think that the government is too intrusive in your life now, Huckabee's worse. Oh, and I kind of want my president to believe in evolution, and Huckabee's always equivocated on that.

With that said, it's foolish beyond all measure to say it's a "shame" that the wanted suspect in a shooting that killed four might have been the guy that Huckabee pardoned, because you want him to win the nomination a few years from now. All that matters is figuring out who did this and catching the culprit.

[jerseyhoya34]

I am aware of what the focus needs to be right now, so no need for the attempted lecture on that given that this thread bears little to no relationship to (i) law enforcement or (ii) the state of Washington. There is a cold place in hell for whomever committed the crime. This is a thread about a national election, rather than law enforcement needs, so my post was made accordingly. Nonetheless, I apologize if anyone, particularly law enforcement personnel, has been distracted by my post from the ongoing law enforcement operations in the state of Washington. Admittedly, I am unclear as to how my undivided attention could help them achieve law enforcement goals and how lack of this undivided attention would be "foolish" given law enforcement goals, but stranger things have happened. I suspect investigators have been able to secure the crime scene, prepare for interviews, run forensics, and the like in any event. This purported lecture is also confusing in the sense that it is unclear why it was not made when armchair law enforcement got up in arms only hours after the Ft. Hood tragedy to speculate as to the religion of the suspect, his potential links to extremists, and the like.

If Huckabee is too moderate in some respects, I'm looking forward to the nomination process if only for sport. Maybe Dick Cheney has a chance, or is he too moderate because of the gay marriage issue?

[TC]

When people are now calling you the "Republican Dukakis", I think it's a sign that your political career is pretty much over.

Sarah Palin's chances at the nomination in 2012 just increased by some order of magnitude.

[jerseyhoya34]

thepage.time.com/2010/02/20/activists-favorite/

Conservative activists have identified Ron Paul as their favorite for the 2012 nomination. Rep. Paul beat out former Governor Romney - a respectable second-place finish. Palin, Pawlenty, Pence, Gingrich, and Huckabee finished under 10% with none distinguishing himself or herself from the others.

[EasyEd]

Feb 20, 2010 19:01:17 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

thepage.time.com/2010/02/20/activists-favorite/

Conservative activists have identified Ron Paul as their favorite for the 2012 nomination. Rep. Paul beat out former Governor Romney - a respectable second-place finish. Palin, Pawlenty, Pence, Gingrich, and Huckabee finished under 10% with none distinguishing himself or herself from the others.

I heard this morning that half of the attendees voting were under 25. Not sure if that's true but, if so, it explains the Paul vote.

[Cambridge]

Huckabee didn't attend CPAC and actually condemned it as out of touch.

[TC]

Feb 24, 2010 15:17:45 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

Huckabee didn't attend CPAC and actually condemned it as out of touch.

Bet he wouldn't be complaining if he ever won the straw poll.