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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 3, 2009 14:19:07 GMT -5
The conservative/African-American point is not apples-oranges. It is a question of degree. There was no disparagement intended other than to note the potential hypocrisy, your explanation for which is a distinction without much of a difference for these purposes in my opinion, although others probably feel differently.
The Pew analysis describes the drop among conservative Republicans as "gradual," which supports my point entirely. You have to wait a few years for the less moderate Republicans to make more than a "gradual" move. If you factor in "liberal Republicans" (however they're defined) during this period, I would buy into your point more. The Gallup poll is entirely on point, unless you think there was a re-shifting of support within the Republican base, which admittedly cannot be discerned from the face of the graph offered by Gallup.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 3, 2009 20:41:01 GMT -5
Ed/Exorcist have their way in Virginia, with the race called after an hour.
Apparently the exit polls in NJ are within a point on the bottom line, with Christie running well among independents, possibly showing late break from Daggett. It looks like a long night there.
On edit: Congratulations are in order as well for Christie in NJ. While I did not support him, I am hopeful that he can succeed and also hope that Democrats give him a fair opportunity to do so. Strange that NY-23 still hangs in the balance.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 3, 2009 21:40:18 GMT -5
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2009 22:49:22 GMT -5
Ed/Exorcist have their way in Virginia, with the race called after an hour. Apparently the exit polls in NJ are within a point on the bottom line, with Christie running well among independents, possibly showing late break from Daggett. It looks like a long night there. Or not. I'm going to bed. I'll read about NY23 in the morning (also slightly interested in CA10...not that Harmer can win, I don't think, but some people are saying he might keep it close; I'm pretty skeptical of that, but will be interested to see). |
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Nov 3, 2009 23:51:04 GMT -5
This is getting repealed. Maybe I'll be shocked, but referendum is always terrible. It's the same method used by "So You Think You Can Dance." Here's how someone walks into a voting booth on referendum: "Hmmm gay marriage. Well I don't dislike it I guess. I don't really like it either. Tough one. Wow. I guess I don't like it." [Checks Box] "Hmmmm weed. I like weed." [Checks Box] "Taxes. Oh please." [Checks Box] It's like the cola wars only it makes policy. Ridiculous. |
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 4, 2009 0:21:29 GMT -5
How many times does Newt Gingrich get to tell Sarah Palin "I told you so!"?
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Nov 4, 2009 0:34:09 GMT -5
How many times does Newt Gingrich get to tell Sarah Palin "I told you so!"? Eh. Looks like the margin of victory is going to be small enough that a Repub would have won if they'd picked a candidate that both wings of the party could have tolerated. Considering how big a Charlie Foxtrot the Republican campaign (I'm talking both Hoffman & Scozzafava) was, it's not surprising that Owens won. |
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 4, 2009 0:46:34 GMT -5
It's a R+12 district - of course they would have held it. Scozzafava probably would have won it herself. But you can't win a R+12 district where the previous officeholders are either working for the Obama administration or on the Board of the Alliance for Climate Protection by running a lifeless Tea Partier who has no idea about what the local issues are.
The hilarious thing is this was supposed to be a grand objection to what a terrible candidate Scozzafava was - and they made her drop so that they could run an even worse candidate in Hoffman.
Gingrich might be the big winner of the night and Palin might be the biggest loser of the night.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Nov 4, 2009 7:15:18 GMT -5
My take on the elections.
Bottom line, Democrats pick up a House seat in NY helping to pass the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda.
New Jersey: Voters oust an unpopular governor and register reaction to awful economy.
Virginia: Terrible drubbing by Republicans who captured all three major races and who added about six new members to the state legislature. Despite an awful candidacy of Creigh Deeds this is particularly a warning shot across the bow for Democrats that "it's the economy, stupid".
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 4, 2009 7:57:42 GMT -5
I think it's important to note that McDonnell really ran an excellent campaign. He focused on the economy and transportation, and didn't let Deeds bait him into an argument over social issues. Furthermore, he didn't cede NoVa, and focused a lot of energy there to strip independents. And while I'm not saying this takes away from McDonnell's success in any way, Deeds ran a really crappy campaign. It doesn't pay to focus on rural voters; the votes a Democrat needs to win statewide are in Nova, Tidewater, and Richmond/Charlottesville.
Youth and African-American turnout was down relatively from 2008, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in 2010 and especially 2012, when Obama is on the ballot again. But we certainly know now that NoVa is the most important electoral region in the Commonwealth.
re NY-23: This loss for the Glenn Beck crowd warms the deep cockles of my heart. The GOP is down to 2 New Yorkers in Congress, in addition to 0 in New England. While the tea partiers are fired up, they have to realize that they are expounding electoral suicide.
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Post by hoyawatcher on Nov 4, 2009 8:24:34 GMT -5
What you saw last night - especially with the result in NJ - was the end of the health care reform bill as we know it. Blue Dogs and middle of the road dems are not going to walk the plank for this thing now. Especially in the Senate. I don't doubt you will see a bill but it will be a much more watered down bill and hopefully a more sensible bill.
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Post by strummer8526 on Nov 4, 2009 9:12:31 GMT -5
New Jersey: Voters oust an unpopular governor and register reaction to awful economy. As a native New Jersey-ite, I've talked to my family a bit about what the sentiment is up there. And you're right. Corzine was WILDLY unpopular. On top of that, there were some corruption charges and some major issues with general state-wide government inefficiency. I also remember hearing someone mention problems with unions, especially the teachers' union. So by not stretch do I really have a sense of the pulse of NJ voters, but I'm pretty sure that election had NOTHING to do with federal politics. I think there's still a large, moderate political center that would vote for Obama again tomorrow if there was another election. But in terms of how the state is run, it's just not good. |
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Post by hoyawatcher on Nov 4, 2009 9:19:51 GMT -5
When the pres takes the time and effort to make a major push to support Corzine and cannot get his voters to come out and vote the way he wants it becomes national. Dems with races in 2010 without Obama on the ticket himself will pay attention that he did not seem to have the ability to turn out voters to protect them. Selling that this was just an unpopular governor to them will be difficult to put it mildly.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Nov 4, 2009 9:48:43 GMT -5
I'll bite on the current Democratic spin that Corzine's defeat was not a referndum on Obama. In fact, I believe that to be true. However, it was plainly a referendum on corrupt, machine, liberal, tax and spend government/politics, replete with the Democrat party propping up a third-party candidate.
This referendum does not portend well for Democrats in 2010, Obama or no Obama.
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 4, 2009 9:51:57 GMT -5
If Corzine's defeat was a referendum on corruption then Christie never would have been elected. All of the races were about the economy.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Nov 4, 2009 9:54:13 GMT -5
If Corzine's defeat was a referendum on corruption then Christie never would have been elected. All of the races were about the economy. Corruption was only one of Corzine's pieces of Samsonite. |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 4, 2009 10:05:49 GMT -5
Some responses and thoughts:
- Newt is in love with Sarah Palin. He won't be telling her "I told you so" anytime soon. He MAY say that to Erick Erickson, however.
- I fully expect Republicans, if they have an actual primary this time, to take back NY-23 in 2010. If this is what Democrats are hanging their hats on from last night, it seems a pretty pyrrhic victory. Especially when you consider that Owens campaigned as an opponent of any public option in health care reform (of course, if he thinks he can't win in 2010, he might vote for it anyway).
- Lost amid the attention given to the big races, understandably, was that Republicans also made serious gains in Pennsylvania local elections last night. It might not get a lot of attention now, but this is groundwork for 2010 and 2012, and a VERY bad sign for Arlen Spector.
- I am not surprised about the Maine result. Gay marriage is not high on my priority list, so I wasn't paying much attention, but does anyone know if the referendum in Washington passed? I think it was supposed to, but I didn't see any official results. I wonder if that might not be a better model for gay marriage advocates. Granted, Washington is more liberal than Maine, but if you remove the word "marriage," I think you get less resistance and you have a better chance of achieving the equal rights you deserve. I know some lawyer is going to give me a "separate but equal" argument here, but when you keep failing with voters using the word marriage, maybe it's time to think about an incremental approach.
- Looks like CA-10 wasn't even close. As I mentioned last night, I was skeptical of those who said that might be a race (while admittedly conceding that the Democrat would win). I wonder where they were getting that from. Probably just wishful thinking.
- Obviously, I'm happy about Virginia, since I live there. I wonder if Terry McAuliffe would have done any better, but I really doubt it. Maybe he wouldn't have gotten drubbed quite so badly, but given the overall Republican gains in Virginia outside of the "big three," I'm not sure any Democrat could've won statewide here this year.
- Back to the NY-23 outcome and impact for a moment, yes, there will be more blood. Conservatives are targeting Charlie Crist and some others and they are going to have their say and influence. I honestly do not have a problem with this. It is a good thing. As Democrats showed in 2008, having an extended, bloody and heated primary is NOT necessarily a detriment to winning elections. Of course, you have to unite behind the primary winner, and that's a big question with conservatives right now. I don't want conservatives to stop fighting the fight, but you have to accept the outcomes and get behind the winner with respect to the upcoming primaries.
- But speaking of bloody, it's not just on the Republican side. The left is definitely targeting moderate Democrats in office right now because of health care. If this does not pass, particularly if no public option passes (which is a real possibility now), you are going to see the MoveOn's of the left doing the exact same thing conservatives did in NY. You can bank on it.
- I was really hoping that Christie's acceptance speech would've included the phrase "I'm a whooooolllle lotta' guv'nuh, baby!" ;D
- As promised, I will refrain from making any grand statements about what all these results mean for the Obama administration. There are plenty of pundits on the left and right who can do that today. It's definitely a warning shot, but whether it means much more than that, I'm not going to comment. I'm happy with the leadership in place in my state.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Nov 4, 2009 10:28:20 GMT -5
Some responses to Boz:
Is there going to be a NY-23 next time? Does redistricting happen before or after the election?
I think same-sex marriage proponents should just wait a few years and try again, the icy scythe of death is going to change these results within 10 years (voters over 65 are overwhelmingly opposed to SSM, young voters are overwhelmingly in favor). While this is a victory for NOM, it's just not going to be tenable as their voters die. I fully expect same sex marriage to be legal in a majority of states by 2025.
You have to remember that Congress got more liberal last night. In CA-10, a moderate Dem (Taucher) was replaces with a very liberal Dem. And of course, NY-23 switched parties.
I might be wrong, but most of the left interest group targeting seems to be toward moderate Dems in very blue districts. That is, districts that would elect a more liberal member. This seems the exact opposite of the tea partier strategy, which is to attack moderate Republicans in blue or purple states.
Any thoughts on the NYC mayoral election, Boz? It was a lot closer than anyone thought, and you have to wonder what would have happened with more national Democratic support for the nominee (and I say this as someone who would have likely voted for Bloomberg).
Also, I'm henceforth going to refer to the GOP as the Oldwhiteys until Elvado can learn to put the "-ic" at the end of my party's name.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 4, 2009 10:29:20 GMT -5
This is getting repealed. Maybe I'll be shocked, but referendum is always terrible. It's the same method used by "So You Think You Can Dance." Here's how someone walks into a voting booth on referendum: "Hmmm gay marriage. Well I don't dislike it I guess. I don't really like it either. Tough one. Wow. I guess I don't like it." [Checks Box] "Hmmmm weed. I like weed." [Checks Box] "Taxes. Oh please." [Checks Box] It's like the cola wars only it makes policy. Ridiculous. Actually, the Maine referendum IS the repeal. The legislature in Maine, generally one of the most liberal states in the country, passed a gay marriage bill some months ago, but the state constitution allows for the electorate to reject any piece of state legislation by referendum. The petitions were submitted and so the act never took effect, pending the outcome of yesterday's referendum. What's interesting about "gay marriage" as a political issue is that from one perspective, it's possibly the most effective single-issue campaign that's ever been conducted. The pro-side rapidly persuaded just about everyone in the country of the need for equal treatment in insurance, property rights, hospital visitation, etc., and within just a few short years, "civil unions" came to be supported by the mainstream of both parties. If the gay marriage movement had more or less stuck to its initial demands of the early 00s, they'd have been able to claim total victory. The problem (for the Democrat Party mostly) is that the movement has shifted the goalposts. Civil unions providing gay couples all of the rights and privileges pertaining to traditional marriage have been deemed insufficient, and so the gay marriage movement is staking everything on the word "marriage" ... and potentially jeopardizing its gains. I say more power to them, because prolonging this fight is just going to keep bringing more and more Republican-leaning voters to the polls each and every year. Even if one concedes on the "marriage" semantics though, the fun will keep brewing, as every reasonable observer knows that the movement's next goal is to use the force of law to punish any churches, businesses, and individuals that opt not to perform gay marriages or provide wedding planning services, music, floral arrangements, reception space to prospective gay weddings. It's got nothing to do with "rights" at this point and everything to do with fundraising for liberal/partisan causes. |
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CAHoya07
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Post by CAHoya07 on Nov 4, 2009 10:39:02 GMT -5
As a liberal northern VA resident, I did not vote in yesterday's elections. I'm not particularly invested in living in Virginia for the long-term, and while I did not like what I heard about McDonnell, I wasn't terribly inspired by Deeds.
I think conservatives were far more mobilized than liberals yesterday. I think a lot of anger among conservatives drove them to the polls, while liberals are still more or less content with the current climate. I don't think a lot of what happened yesterday matters much in a national sense, but we still see what happens when it actually does in 2010.
Finally, I am saddened to see the Maine result on gay marriage. The Washington result to expand gay rights still hangs in the balance, and I hope it gets passed. This is an issue that will not go away, and despite its setbacks, it will be interesting to see what happens to the pro-gay marriage movement in the coming years.
(EDIT: Interesting points, Bando and rosslyn. I do think that the movement does need some time, because the younger generation is much more receptive to it than the old folks. Also, personally I think "rights" for gay couples is the most important thing, and I would not stake everything on the word "marriage," but I'm sure a lot of gay marriage proponents would disagree with me.)
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