EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Oct 31, 2009 12:51:46 GMT -5
Maybe Newt and Michael Steele will feel free to endorse Hoffman now; then they can always say "we backed the winner".
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royski
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Post by royski on Oct 31, 2009 13:18:44 GMT -5
If the GOP is unwilling to back moderate candidates in the northeast, they must not care much about winning. The Democrats engineered their dominant takeover of both houses by backing moderates and conservatives in the south and other areas where a liberal would not have run well. I'm delighted to see that the Republicans failed to learn the lesson of the last election cycle.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Oct 31, 2009 13:56:21 GMT -5
Maybe Newt and Michael Steele will feel free to endorse Hoffman now; then they can always say "we backed the winner". More on the last-minute endorsements: www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28972.htmlPerhaps this brand of conservatism will find some way of distinguishing itself after the Bush/Cheney years. |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Oct 31, 2009 14:05:56 GMT -5
If the GOP is unwilling to back moderate candidates in the northeast, they must not care much about winning. The Democrats engineered their dominant takeover of both houses by backing moderates and conservatives in the south and other areas where a liberal would not have run well. I'm delighted to see that the Republicans failed to learn the lesson of the last election cycle. Will you say this if Hoffman wins? In Presidential elections, the Republicans nominated George H. W. Bush, a moderate, who lost to Clinton. Then they nominated Bob Dole, a moderate, who also lost to Clinton. Next they nominated twice George W. Bush who, in my opinion, was a moderate on most issues. He won twice. Then they nominated John McCain, a moderate, and he lost to Barack Obama. So, on a presidential level, the jury is still out as to what's better for the Republicans since they haven't nominated a real conservative since Reagan. |
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Post by hoyawatcher on Oct 31, 2009 14:31:20 GMT -5
If the GOP is unwilling to back moderate candidates in the northeast, they must not care much about winning. The Democrats engineered their dominant takeover of both houses by backing moderates and conservatives in the south and other areas where a liberal would not have run well. I'm delighted to see that the Republicans failed to learn the lesson of the last election cycle. Will you say this if Hoffman wins? In Presidential elections, the Republicans nominated George H. W. Bush, a moderate, who lost to Clinton. Then they nominated Bob Dole, a moderate, who also lost to Clinton. Next they nominated twice George W. Bush who, in my opinion, was a moderate on most issues. He won twice. Then they nominated John McCain, a moderate, and he lost to Barack Obama. So, on a presidential level, the jury is still out as to what's better for the Republicans since they haven't nominated a real conservative since Reagan. And then there is a third way  Looks like the pub management group has convinced their moderate candidate to bow out and leave the race to Hoffman most likely. Gotta imagine the discussions were pretty brutal but the polls I have seen led to this as an obvious out for the pubs. www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/BREAKING_Scozzafava_drops_out_of_NY_23.htmlIf Hoffman wins as one would now expect that will energize the conservative base of the pubs. If they don't overplay things as Obama has they can ride this a long way in 2010 |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Oct 31, 2009 15:19:02 GMT -5
How much you want to bet Dede Scozzafava votes for Owens?
I'm sorry, you can keep saying that there is no room for moderate Republicans all you want. She is NOT a moderate Republican.
Rudy Giuliani is a moderate Republican. Conservatives are not trying to push him out of the Republican party.
We'll see what happens next week, but my money is on Hoffman now.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 1, 2009 13:30:57 GMT -5
Andrew Sullivan linked an interesting analysis yesterday that showed it is possible that Dede's voters will go to Owens by a slim margin, but this kind of polling is notoriously unreliable. I think it is more likely that undecideds and marginal Dede voters will end up with the "independent." Apparently Dede is quietly encouraging her supporters to back Owens, but that could be for any number of reasons - spite (don't think there are too many Hoffman fans in Dede's camp after a bitter campaign), Hoffman's lack of ties to the district, or ideology.
Part of the reason that Dede is viewed as not a Republican is because the voices of Dick Cheneyfication are much louder in the Republican Party right now, so it is natural that any Republican, like a Chris Shays, will appear to be "not a Republican" or "too moderate" if the acceptable portfolio of positions is where you find Dick Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, and the like. If Colin Powell were still considered the next big thing in Republican politics, Dede would have been acceptable to the rank and file just as George W. Bush (the "uniter not divider" version) was overwhelmingly acceptable to rank and file Republicans when electoral expediency called for it in 2000. It has only been after the fact that arguments like "W is not a conservative" have surfaced, likely as an ideology-saving maneuver. No such complaints were made in the midst of the "tax cut and spend" days after September 11 or when we deployed hundreds of thousands of troops to Iraq without so much as a postwar plan or a price tag.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Nov 1, 2009 15:00:35 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2009 17:54:46 GMT -5
Well, I will pre-emptively congratulate Virginia Republicans on what is sure to be a complete victory tomorrow. The Governor's race will be clear, and the lower ballot items will follow suit by virtue of the wide enthusiasm gap. May they succeed in office, and may Democrats do well by not following the "example" of national and congressional Republicans.
As for NJ, we have a complete toss-up. Republican polls show Christie today, and others (meaning Dem polls) show Corzine. It will come down to turnout. Weather tomorrow is not supposed to be terrible, it seems.
NY-23 - I don't care about big tents or small tents. That race needs a circus tent. I expect Hoffman by 5-10% barring a last minute shift in the race. It will set an unfortunate example, I think, but an example nonetheless.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 2, 2009 19:27:39 GMT -5
If you think this so-called "battle for the soul" of the Republican party is crazy now, just wait 'til Marco Rubio beats Charlie Crist in the Florida primary.
I'm fairly confident that this will happen. If Owens wins tomorrow, it might cloud that outcome, but if Hoffman wins, it's a virtual lock.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2009 8:32:35 GMT -5
Wow, what a difference a year makes, huh?
Took me all of about 30 seconds to vote this morning. I can get used to that.
Virginia won't be very exciting, that's for sure, but I'm sure we can look forward to a full day of shenanigans and accusations out of New Jersey and New York.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 3, 2009 8:57:12 GMT -5
It has only been after the fact that arguments like "W is not a conservative" have surfaced, likely as an ideology-saving maneuver. Were you awake at all for the last decade? Conservatives claimed that Bush was not a conservative since 2000, when the words "compassionate conservative" first slipped loose from his lips. The Weekly Standard, National Review, etc., dogged his steps from the very beginning, from No Child Left Behind, Medicare D, the Assault Weapons Ban, the steel tariffs, amnesty for the illegals, AIDS money for Africa, up to and including TARP. EDIT- and McCain-Feingold of course. He should still never be forgiven for going along with that monstrous violation of his oath of office. Unfortunately for all of us, when the mainstream media joined the fever swamps of the left, all you ever heard was that he's a right-wing ultra-Christian super-Hitler destroying all of our freedoms. If you think Dubya's numbers dropped to where they did from 2006 on due to independents shifting away from him, you're crazy. |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Nov 3, 2009 10:11:35 GMT -5
Like Boz I voted this morning. My polling place in Virginia was not busy so, in consideration of the people manning the polls who looked bored with inactivity, I voted six times to give them something to do. May go back this afternoon to do it a few more times.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2009 10:19:01 GMT -5
Like Boz I voted this morning. My polling place in Virginia was not busy so, in consideration of the people manning the polls who looked bored with inactivity, I voted six times to give them something to do. May go back this afternoon to do it a few more times. You should take a trip up to New Jersey. ;D |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2009 11:25:05 GMT -5
Like Boz I voted this morning. My polling place in Virginia was not busy so, in consideration of the people manning the polls who looked bored with inactivity, I voted six times to give them something to do. May go back this afternoon to do it a few more times. You should thank the good people at ACORN for making sure you got registered six times. |
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Post by strummer8526 on Nov 3, 2009 11:56:49 GMT -5
Rudy Giuliani is a moderate Republican. Conservatives are not trying to push him out of the Republican party. Rudy is moderate until he needs to win a primary. I love mayor Rudy. President Rudy would be a different person. I don't know where on the spectrum he's settled now. |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 3, 2009 12:34:51 GMT -5
I think Governor Rudy will be fairly moderate.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on Nov 3, 2009 12:58:06 GMT -5
My wife and I voted in a pretty well-off county in NJ....we were not asked for any identification whatsoever at any point or in any way to justify our claims of who we said we were. I could have been from any county, state or country and just voted for Morris county resident John Smith. I actually had to point out my name in the book for the attendent. And this was at 7AM when we were the ONLY ones there. I could have pointed to anyone.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 3, 2009 13:22:28 GMT -5
It has only been after the fact that arguments like "W is not a conservative" have surfaced, likely as an ideology-saving maneuver. Were you awake at all for the last decade? Conservatives claimed that Bush was not a conservative since 2000, when the words "compassionate conservative" first slipped loose from his lips. The Weekly Standard, National Review, etc., dogged his steps from the very beginning, from No Child Left Behind, Medicare D, the Assault Weapons Ban, the steel tariffs, amnesty for the illegals, AIDS money for Africa, up to and including TARP. EDIT- and McCain-Feingold of course. He should still never be forgiven for going along with that monstrous violation of his oath of office. Unfortunately for all of us, when the mainstream media joined the fever swamps of the left, all you ever heard was that he's a right-wing ultra-Christian super-Hitler destroying all of our freedoms. If you think Dubya's numbers dropped to where they did from 2006 on due to independents shifting away from him, you're crazy. There are these middling complaints, but what they did not turn into was substantive action by conservatives. Indeed, 84% of conservatives voted for George W. Bush in 2004 (up from the 2000 levels). This is not much different from the 88-11 split that Kerry got on African-Americans, yet one group is commonly charged with blindly voting in lock step. Certainly some of the items you mentioned happened before 2004. Maybe there was some dogging here on what you mention, but the dog didn't bark in the voting booth. I do not recall any 1.5 million person march on Washington, sustained/deliberate tantrums during town hall meetings, organized "tea parties,"etc. I am not aware of any Republican candidate running against PEPFAR, but maybe there is grassroots opposition. I would also dispute that Republicans moved away from Bush based on ideology. The precipitous drop in his approvals among Republicans came later than 2006. For better or for worse, his approval rating among Republicans hovered around 80% (with corrections in either direction) during 2006, and the tanking came during the period that was generally mailed in during 2008. www.gallup.com/poll/107128/bush-approval-rating-down-60-among-republicans.aspx |
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 3, 2009 14:07:31 GMT -5
Indeed, 84% of conservatives voted for George W. Bush in 2004 (up from the 2000 levels). This is not much different from the 88-11 split that Kerry got on African-Americans, yet one group is commonly charged with blindly voting in lock step. I don't quite grasp the disparagement that's intended here. Are you saying that "African-Americanism" is supposed to be treated as some kind of ideology? Otherwise you're comparing apples and oranges. Maybe there was some dogging here on what you mention, but the dog didn't bark in the voting booth. Can you comprehend how absolutely terrible your candidate was in 2004? Bush dramatically GAINED in votes from his 2000 showing because the other Party's candidate was just that bad. I am not aware of any Republican candidate running against PEPFAR, but maybe there is grassroots opposition. No, that kind of crap is populism at its finest, winning Bues major brownie points with both their Christian constituents and neoconservative/national greatness conservatives. Traditional conservatives would still find just as much fault with wasteful foreign aid as any other kind of ridiculous spending. You'd also expect libertarian-leaning conservatives to object to the idea that our government should have any role in managing the sex lives of foreign bedrooms. I would also dispute that Republicans moved away from Bush based on ideology. The precipitous drop in his approvals among Republicans came later than 2006. For better or for worse, his approval rating among Republicans hovered around 80% (with corrections in either direction) during 2006, and the tanking came during the period that was generally mailed in during 2008. www.gallup.com/poll/107128/bush-approval-rating-down-60-among-republicans.aspx That's an excellent graphic that unfortunately does not prove your point regarding Bush and conservatives, merely among Republicans, which as thread should clearly indicate are not the same thing. This link (from Pew) shows a rather surprising drop in conservative support for Bush by 2006, essentially from the 2004 election onward. pewresearch.org/pubs/226/bushs-troubles-shake-the-gop-base |
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Looks like the pub management group has convinced their moderate candidate to bow out and leave the race to Hoffman most likely. Gotta imagine the discussions were pretty brutal but the polls I have seen led to this as an obvious out for the pubs. 
