Predictions for CFB this year

[hifigator]

Given that the season is finally almost here, what is your best prediction? Pick whatever you feel the most confident about for the upcoming season. Do you have a "surprise" team that will overachieve? How about an overrated team that will disappoint? Do you have a prediction for winning any particular conference or ... dare I say, make it to Pasadena for the BCS title game?

[hifigator]

I will go first:

Obviously, I'm going to pick Florida to go all the way, and even trying as hard as I can to be objective -- which is obviously impossible from my perspective -- I do think that Florida has the makeup to run the table. Florida has the leadership on both sides of the ball and both experience and depth to overcome the bumps in the road that the Gators will doubtlessly encounter. Abstracting away from Florida, I think that everyone, for the most part, is concerned with either USC or the Texas-Oklahoma matchup. But I think that the Big 10 might actually be the player when it all shakes out. I think that Ohio St. has a very good shot at beating the Trojans in Columbus. I think Pryor will come into his own this season, and may even add himself to the Heisman race before the year ends. I also think that sets up a huge game in Happy Valley. I think the schedule sets up very well for Penn. St. and I think they will be favored in every game leading up to that matchup. I really can see an unbeated showdown coming, with a likely title game appearance in the works. As much as I've been a critic of the Big 10, I think this might actually be a strong year for them, at least as far as being a player come January. I can see both Penn. St. and Ohio St. playing in Pasadena come January, with the winner of their battle playing a week later. Of course whichever of those teams wins, only gets to come in SECond to the Gators.

Thoughts?

[RDF]

One thing about USC-Ohio State matchup that went underlooked--the easy way USC was able to run all over OSU's defense--especially McKnight. OSU should load up and force Barkley to beat them--but they lost a lot of experience/talent on defense from last year's group.

I think Pryor is vastly overrated--and type of defense USC plays will continue to give him problems. Vince Young could at least hit David Thomas--and was a legit threat to pass/complete those short routes---Pryor has to prove he can throw the football much better or they'll play him to run--and I don't think Pryor is in same league as Young as a runner.

Penn State is good--but I see their schedule killing them when they lose a single game. Just like Florida--if those teams lose with that CRAP non conference schedule--they should eliminated from Title game consideration.

Texas or USC will be in Title Game--one of them if not both. That is how sadly predictable and regionalized the "voting" goes for that game. A bunch of 2 loss teams--LSU gets "nod" in year it's in Sugar Bowl. Florida--which deserved to be there against USC last year--was going to play in Miami---and Oklahoma stunk it up/choked in another Title game, so how will it go this year? I say USC/Texas vs Florida--who won't lose a game with that s**** schedule.

[hifigator]

RDF, I'll admit that the natives down here aren't especially thrilled with Florida's schedule this year. It is an "odd" year, which is historically the ones that set up best for Florida, since we get both FSU and Tennessee at home. But this year, neither looks to be the top notch opponent they have been in other years. While we do play LSU on the road, the SEC rotation gives us Miss. St. and Arkansas as our other SEC west foes. That certainly doesn't look to be very challenging. And then even in the SEC east, Georgia -- traditionally the other top contender along with Tennessee -- is in a "rebuilding" year. I use quotes, because I think Georgia will ultimately be better than people predict. Still, losing Moreno, Stafford and Mossaqui will certainly cause them some problems.

But overall, there's no denying that our schedule looks very favorable on paper.

On a somewhat related note, I think that sometimes too much attention is put on the OOC schedule. Last year, Florida played FSU, Miami and Hawaii along with the Citadel. Granted, I don't think we should ever play the Citadel, but the point is that all three of the other teams were bowl teams the year before. When that schedule was made, there was no way of knowing that Hawaii was going to lose their record setting QB Colt Brennan as well as their innovative coach, June Jones. There was also no way of knowing that Miami would be floundering in the way they did or that FSU was still going to be the mediocre team they have been recently. So although our schedule ended up being "easy," (in spite of being the 4th toughest in the Nation), you certainly couldn't knock it much going into the year.

This year, almost the opposite is true. Charleston Southern is essentially Citadel -- a team we have no business playing ever, except for the fact that they really need the money. FIU is probably along the lines of Hawaii last year, as far as quality. And though they don't have the familiarity of "name" that the formerly known Rainbow Warriors do, are likely to offer similar resistance. FSU, at least on paper, looks to be significantly improved from last year, if for no other reason, that Ponder is developing into his own and by all early accounts, is now a solid QB. That leaves Troy this year to compare to Miami last season. Certainly Miami wasn't close to any of their title/contending teams, but they are still Miami. They still have a lot of talent, albeit young and inexperienced. Troy, on the other hand, has really improved their overall talent level and has steadily and consistently improved the level of their program as a whole, yet is still a "no-name" and relative unknown. As LSU learrned last season however, the name Troy, is not to be taken lightly.

The bottom line is that we have 1 real stinker of a game to open up with. Then we have a decent OOC team that has been bowling 3 years in a row. Then at the end of the year, we have one in-state team that is trying to elevate to the next level to go along with our arch-rival. It's certainly not a great/competetive OOC schdule, but not as bad as it appears on the surface. But when you add in the favorable luck of the draw in conference games along with the incredible talent that we have coming back this year, we certainly look to have a very easy path to Pasadena.

As for USC and Ohio St., on one hand, I'm scared that I might be drinking the coolaid. But on the other, I think that the Ohio St. team that played Texas very close is much more like the one that will face USC in a few weeks. USC, on the other hand, is a totally different team than the one that mauled the Bucknuts last year. It starts at QB, where USC has a brand new guy, while Ohio St. has a young star in the making. The difference between Pryor in the first half of the season compared to the end of last season was tremendous. And obviously, Mark Sanchez is gone for USC and they are breaking in a new guy in Barkley. Secondly, even though USC, like Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio St., has stockpiled top recruiting class after another, there is still reason to think that losing 9 defensive starters will be tough to overcome -- especially early in the season. Finally, USC is traditionally a totally different team on the road. Combine that with the new faces on defense and under center and I think the game sets up really well for Ohio St. But then again, we have seen USC in "big" games recently ...

[hoyarooter]

This is weak sauce on the Florida schedule, hifi. FSU is, of course, always a legit opponent, but at the time this schedule was made, what was the likelihood that either Troy or FIU would pose any kind of challenge at all? I agree that Troy is now a respectable opponent, and FIU may also be, but I'll bet this OOC schedule looked like a bunch of chopped liver at the time it was made. Florida should always be looking for a second major intersectional opponent, such as a Michigan or BC (just to pick two out of a hat). Or better yet, USC or Texas. ;D

[hifigator]

Rooter, that ain't going to happen. When the NCAA allowed the permanent 12th game, the University got their grubby little fingers on the money by penciling into the budget the revenues from a 7th home game. We have 4 road SEC games plus the Georgia game in Jacksonville on every "odd" year. We have 3 SEC road games, plus FSU in Tallahassee and Georgia in Jacksonville every "even" year. So every year 5 of our games are away from the Swamp. Since the University has now budgetarily mandated that we have 7 home games, all OOC foes other than FSU must be willling to come play in Gainesville without a return trip. Down here, we would love a Texas or USC home and home. The natives have been clamoring for that for years. But when the University has nearly 95,000 sold at $40 a pop, that's almost $4million. Add in concessions, parking and the boost to the local economy, and there's just no way in hell that they are going to give up a home game. The only chance for a legit opponent to be added is if the Georgia game gets moved to a home and home. Incidentally, Georgia is in the exact same situation that we are, but they were willing to only have 6 home games. That allowed them to travel to Az St. last year and to Stillwater this year.

Our best hope is that we could convince a team like a Wake Forest or Iowa State to come to Gainesville without a return trip. There was talk of Utah for this season, but they wouldn't agree to it.

My proposal was to play the Georgia game on a 6 year rotation, with 4 of each 6 years played in Jacksonville and one game each in Gainesville and Athens. That would allow a nice road trip every once in a while, and Athens is a cool town. It would also allow a legit OOC foe 2 years out of every 6. The hardest part will be talking Jacksonville out of "their" game 2 for a third of the time.


On Edit: Incidentally, we did have a 2 year home and home with Georgia in '94 and '95 when they were renovating the Gator Bowl. That was cool. I remember when we went up to Athens, we were the first team to hang "half a hundred" on Georgia at their place. Then after the game we went back to Atlanta. It was the day the Braves clinched their World Series. That was fun trip.

[hoyarooter]

That's unfortunate, since it means that Florida is pretty much locked into a crappy OOC schedule. I wonder, though, FSU is home and home, isn't it? Couldn't Florida do another home and home to mirror the FSU games, so it was always playing three OOC games at home, but would always have one strong home OOC opponent? What about Miami?

[AustinHoya03]

Sept 8, 2009 13:10:57 GMT -5 hifigator said:

On Edit: Incidentally, we did have a 2 year home and home with Georgia in '94 and '95 when they were renovating the Gator Bowl. That was cool. I remember when we went up to Athens, we were the first team to hang "half a hundred" on Georgia at their place. Then after the game we went back to Atlanta. It was the day the Braves clinched their World Series. That was fun trip.

Who had Week 1 in the "When will hifi break out a pointless Gator road trip story" pool?

[hifigator]

rooter wrote:

That's unfortunate, since it means that Florida is pretty much locked into a crappy OOC schedule. I wonder, though, FSU is home and home, isn't it? Couldn't Florida do another home and home to mirror the FSU games, so it was always playing three OOC games at home, but would always have one strong home OOC opponent? What about Miami?

I agree with your first point, as far as it obviously eliminates any real quality in our OOC options. As to the reasoning though, I think you missed one point. We have FSU every year, on a home and home basis. With an annual game in Jacksonville against Georgia, and as long as the University insists on 7 truly "home" games -- in the Swamp -- then there isn't an alternative other than opponents that will come play here without a return trip. If you meant to suggest that we could swap in FSU for another annual home and home, then I agree and have proposed as much. Granted, "blue/white collar" boosters/supporters like me have very little clout. Still, I don't know why FSU should be the automatic every year instead of Miami.

In any case, the key is having the annual neutral conference game, along with the annual OOC home and home. If you keep those two things, and are in an 8 game conference, then you can't play an additional home and home, unless you are willing to play less than 7 home games at least one year every so often.

Austin wrote:

Who had Week 1 in the "When will hifi break out a pointless Gator road trip story" pool?

While I appreciate your humor, can you really fault my logic? There wasn't any extended conversation at all. In fact, I might even be called terse. And for me, that would be a "ferse" ... hee hee hee ... I made that one up myself ... and no, without any additional encouragement, I am NOT quitting my day job.

[kchoya]

Sept 8, 2009 12:44:30 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

This is weak sauce on the Florida schedule, hifi. FSU is, of course, always a legit opponent, but at the time this schedule was made, what was the likelihood that either Troy or FIU would pose any kind of challenge at all? I agree that Troy is now a respectable opponent, and FIU may also be, but I'll bet this OOC schedule looked like a bunch of chopped liver at the time it was made. Florida should always be looking for a second major intersectional opponent, such as a Michigan or BC (just to pick two out of a hat). Or better yet, USC or Texas. ;D

What's the incentive for UF to do that in the current system. It doesn't matter who they play in the non-conference schedule. As long as they win the SEC, they go to a BCS bowl. And if they go undefeated, or 11-1 with a "good" loss in the league, they can play in the championship game. Why risk that by playing anyone of significance? I think the system is dumb, but I don't blame Florida, or other schools, for playing the game.

[hoyarooter]

I wasn't suggesting that there was any incentive for Florida to play another strong opponent - since Florida is really good, I would just have it on my wish list. And hifi, I see the scheduling problem. It's just unfortunate that the powers that be feel that FL has to play 7 home games out of a 12 game schedule every season.

[hifigator]

kc wrote:

What's the incentive for UF to do that in the current system. It doesn't matter who they play in the non-conference schedule. As long as they win the SEC, they go to a BCS bowl. And if they go undefeated, or 11-1 with a "good" loss in the league, they can play in the championship game. Why risk that by playing anyone of significance? I think the system is dumb, but I don't blame Florida, or other schools, for playing the game.

While I see that logic, I honestly don't think that plays into the decisions very often. If an SEC university is looking for a home and home opponent, I don't think they seek to avoid the better teams. It really is all about the money.