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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 4, 2012 1:09:06 GMT -5
While Santorum is the big winner tonight, Romney's ultimate victory is pretty much secured. Santorum doesn't have the organization and he's pulling single digits in NH, the money bomb that's going to drop tomorrow can't build an organization overnight. Biggest loser tonight: Bachmann or UConn? Ultimately agree, but Romney is going to need a flak jacket over the next couple weeks. See Newt's concession speech. Looks as if the guy that explicitly stated the need for the R candidates to stick together is going into "full Bulworth mode," as Nate Silver put it. Romney will cruise in New Hampshire, but S. Carolina's wide open. Perry (apparently) dropping out of the race certainly does not help Romney there. ON EDIT: See also: politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/03/gingrich-to-target-romney-in-n-h-ad/
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 4, 2012 3:01:54 GMT -5
Does it matter? There's no viable competition to Romney over fifty states, unless I'm missing something. He may lose a state or two, but it's his.
Santorum finished strong in the "he hasn't been a leader long enough to be ripped apart yet" sweepstakes. He's Bachmann/Cain/Perry/Gingrich re (quin?) dux and he'll be gone soon enough.
(And Bachmann already lost. I'd say Ron Paul is the big loser here -- he's all sorts of crazy too, but you have to have some major baggage to have people try Rick Santorum before you, right?)
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 4, 2012 9:30:34 GMT -5
My thoughts:
1. Geaux BLUE!!!!! Oh, wait..... (and no Va. Tech, you didn't get screwed; you screwed yourselves)
2. Have to agree that I'm not sure how Bachmann was a big loser, since she was already pretty much done; losing her home state just more or less sealed it.
3. Glad to finally not have to talk about Rick Perry anymore.
4. Re: Newt Gingrich. It's funny, I was baffled at how Newt came back. You all know how much I like him. But my biggest concern with Newt was always all of the baggage that the left could attack him with, personal and professional. I never realized that what would ultimately do him in was all the bridges he burned over the years with his own party and conservatives. Yes, he will go on the attack now, but it's too little, too late. IMO, his attacks in New Hampshire, given his position now and finish in Iowa, will be treated more or less as the lashing out of a mortally wounded animal. He can ding Romney somewhat, but probably not enough to throw the race to Santorum.
5. I agree with Laura Ingraham that Santorum really should just skip New Hampshire and focus on S.C. He can't pull off in N.H. what he did in Iowa, there is just not enough time. But if he simply conceded there and spent the next couple of weeks exclusively in S.C. (and/or Florida), he might turn this into something. I think he's really just wasting valuable retail and fundraising time in Romney's "home" state.
6. Much as this seems like a fait accompli to many, I think that Bill Kristol has a point. Not that another Republican is going to jump in, I think there's zero chance of that, but that we are not done with the wacky and something 100% unexpected is going to happen over the next few weeks. What that would be, I have no idea. Maybe it's Huntsman's strategy actually working, maybe Gingrich wins S.C.....something crazy.
7. Re: TC's Democratic dream team. I would love to see that too, particularly the Barack Obama-Bill Clinton televised debate. ;D
8. UConn sucks!! (my effort to reach across the aisle and find common ground).
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 4, 2012 9:53:32 GMT -5
6. Much as this seems like a fait accompli to many, I think that Bill Kristol has a point. Not that another Republican is going to jump in, I think there's zero chance of that, but that we are not done with the wacky and something 100% unexpected is going to happen over the next few weeks. What that would be, I have no idea. Maybe it's Huntsman's strategy actually working, maybe Gingrich wins S.C.....something crazy. Donald Trump! I also disagree with Boz - I think Obama-Hilary will be the Democratic ticket, and Romney-Rubio will be the Republican one, so this whole process is going to be pretty boring because we all know that is what is going to happen.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Jan 4, 2012 10:21:07 GMT -5
1. Bill Clinton can't run for VP. See the 12th Amendment.
2. As noted on one of the early morning shows, is Santorum '12 the echo of Buchanan '96? That year, a veteran if not altogether popular moderate (Dole) still won the nomination but little else as the incumbent Democrat rolled on.
3. You could see as many as four tickets this fall: Obama-Biden, Romney-Santorum or Romney-Thune (won't be Christie or Rubio this time around, they'll wait for '16), Ron Paul and someone, and the Americans Elect candidate. Never heard of them? It's already on the ballot in California and 12 other states.
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 4, 2012 10:36:12 GMT -5
3. You could see as many as four tickets this fall: Obama-Biden, Romney-Santorum or Romney-Thune (won't be Christie or Rubio this time around, they'll wait for '16), Ron Paul and someone, and the Americans Elect candidate. Never heard of them? It's already on the ballot in California and 12 other states. Plus Donald Trump. I think he's close to being on the ballot in Texas. So DFW can vote for him, not sure about the rest of us. Americans Elect is probably a Republican dirty trick, and I doubt Ron Paul runs as an independent.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Jan 4, 2012 10:46:23 GMT -5
Americans Elect is probably a Republican dirty trick Kind of like how the Occupy movement was an astroturf campaign bankrolled by the Koch bros and directed by PNAC? I mean, you couldn't possibly have organized and sustained that many smelly, lazy, inarticulate morons who came this close to completely discrediting the progressive movement forever, unless of course you had the resources and intelligence of an archconservative master villain at your disposal. Very sneaky Republicans, very sneaky.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 4, 2012 10:52:56 GMT -5
3. You could see as many as four tickets this fall: Obama-Biden, Romney-Santorum or Romney-Thune (won't be Christie or Rubio this time around, they'll wait for '16), Ron Paul and someone, and the Americans Elect candidate. Never heard of them? It's already on the ballot in California and 12 other states. Americans Elect is probably a Republican dirty trick, and I doubt Ron Paul runs as an independent. I was thinking the opposite. A 3rd party candidate will hurt the Republican candidate since it will split the anti Obama vote. Then again, I guess what really matters is what states the 3rd party is actually on the ballot. California is voting for Obama, Texas is voting for the Republican. Somewhere like Virginia or Colorado would have the most impact I think.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 4, 2012 11:03:42 GMT -5
It depends where the third party is directed at as well. Sick of Wall Street/Politicans? I could see that hurting Obama. Hard core social/religious conservative? That would cripple Romney.
Boz - I could see something wacky happening just because it is obvious a large segment of Republicans want anyone but Romney. But I don't think it is going to be Santorum.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 4, 2012 11:46:43 GMT -5
3. Glad to finally not have to talk about Rick Perry anymore. Agree with your sentiment, but... twitter.com/#!/GovernorPerry/status/154596463995912193
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Jan 4, 2012 13:24:16 GMT -5
Are Americans Elect the same as No Labels? As in "serious policy disagreements are unseemly and must be countered with bipartisan magic/Mike Bloomberg".
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 4, 2012 13:35:51 GMT -5
I was thinking the opposite. A 3rd party candidate will hurt the Republican candidate since it will split the anti Obama vote. Then again, I guess what really matters is what states the 3rd party is actually on the ballot. California is voting for Obama, Texas is voting for the Republican. Somewhere like Virginia or Colorado would have the most impact I think. From everything I've heard, they are trying to get on the ballot on all 50 states. Maybe I'm just completely cynical and paranoid - but when has anyone ever said "Hey, you know what would fix the country? A completely unmonitored and unregulated primary process on the Internet." The fact that people would spend $20M and a lot of effort to get on the ballot in 50 states means they must be getting something out of it.
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 4, 2012 13:36:38 GMT -5
Are Americans Elect the same as No Labels? As in "serious policy disagreements are unseemly and must be countered with bipartisan magic/Mike Bloomberg". No, Americans Elect so far seems devoid of any policy goals.
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Post by strummer8526 on Jan 4, 2012 13:59:48 GMT -5
Are Americans Elect the same as No Labels? As in "serious policy disagreements are unseemly and must be countered with bipartisan magic/Mike Bloomberg". Now THERE'S the dream ticket. Magic (Johnson, I assume) and Mike Bloomberg.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Jan 4, 2012 14:59:52 GMT -5
Yes, they're a re-hash of Unity08, who tried desparately to do the same with a charismatic bi-partisan figure like Mike Bloomberg or Chuck Hagel in 2008.
What people seldom realize is that bipartisan consensus is usually a sign that the American public is about to be screwed: No Child Left Behind, McCain-Feingold, PATRIOT Act, every farm and transportation bill, etc. We'll probably add SOPA to that list soon enough.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Jan 4, 2012 23:17:05 GMT -5
Hear, hear Rosslyn. I also think the Unity08 folks fail to see that a bipartisan result can often be worse than a purely Democratic or Republican result.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Jan 5, 2012 16:30:22 GMT -5
Santorum's speech after Iowa finish:
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Jan 5, 2012 18:55:39 GMT -5
Since I don't feel like wasting 20 minutes of my life listening to a guy who lost his last election by 700,000 votes, I'm just going to post this Santorum video as a follow up and answer to your last question about the Democratic dream duo.
Since there is no Democratic dream duo running for President, I think the dream duo is Santorum and Paul both running. This would require Republican primary voters to completely ignore several major red flags about Santorum's electability, but if he wins the Republican primary, there are going to be a bunch of people who lean Libertarian looking for a candidate. Santorum loses by McGovernesque margins in this scenario most likely.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Jan 5, 2012 19:14:05 GMT -5
"Since I don't feel like wasting 20 minutes of my life listening to a guy who lost his last election by 700,000 votes,"
Yes he lost his last election but you failed to mention he won his previous two Senate races and he won all of his races for the House, but they do not support your point so you neglected them. Will also mention that Nixon lost his last election before winning the Presidency. Clinton lost once, as did Reagan.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Jan 5, 2012 23:54:58 GMT -5
Since I don't feel like wasting 20 minutes of my life listening to a guy who lost his last election by 700,000 votes, I'm just going to post this Santorum video as a follow up and answer to your last question about the Democratic dream duo. Since there is no Democratic dream duo running for President, I think the dream duo is Santorum and Paul both running. This would require Republican primary voters to completely ignore several major red flags about Santorum's electability, but if he wins the Republican primary, there are going to be a bunch of people who lean Libertarian looking for a candidate. Santorum loses by McGovernesque margins in this scenario most likely. Are you implying that the libertarian element of the GOP primary is likely to bail on the GOP in the general if their candidate isn't chosen?!? GASP. I think many of us metropolitan conservatives are probably prone to overestimating the degree of liberal hatred for Rick Santorum, simply because of our near-constant exposure to folks who have been screeching their hatred of him for the last 4 years. Talking to normal Dems outside the Beltway, the ones that don't eat/sleep/breath politics, I don't think a Santorum candidacy is likely to mobilize the party at all. The ones who will spin up in a frothy rage over this are the activists who are going to be unshakeable Obama supporters regardless of whom the GOP nominates. If the Santorum campaign has any sense at all (and I doubt the principals do), they'd take that youtube clip and spread it far and wide and let the vast middle of the country know that Rick Santorum is the middle-class blue-collar alternative to Barack and Mitt. He's as opposed to free trade as Obama, he's as opposed to cutting the precious safety net as Obama, he supports a massive amnesty for all the poor suffering God's childrens that have washed up on our shores, but he doesn't have all Obama's baggage dragging him down. All he needs to do is start playing down the social issues -- not to hide them, but because they're a given -- and he could be polling quite well nationally.
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