South Carolina Thread

[jerseyhoya34]

With decent weather in SC today, it appears as though turnout is strong.

I think the big question ahead of the evening coverage is whether Edwards stays in if he finishes in 3rd as the "native son."

Early exit poll here: www.wral.com/news/political/story/2359389

[Filo]

I hadn't been ruling Edwards out as a possible darkhorse, sneaking in through a nasty battle between Obama and Clinton. Until now. Edwards should hang it up, even though he is on record as saying he will not. Nice win for Obama.

[The Stig]

I think Edwards is trying to out-last the runner-up to bolster his chances of getting the VP nomination. It worked for him last time.

A big win for Obama. He needed a bit of momentum, and the margin of victory makes it all the sweeter.

[EasyEd]

The pollsters missed badly again, like in New Hampshire. Most polls predicted a high single digit or very low double digit win but Obama won by 27-28 points.

[Filo]

Jan 26, 2008 23:17:07 GMT -5 The Stig said:

I think Edwards is trying to out-last the runner-up to bolster his chances of getting the VP nomination. It worked for him last time.

Interesting point. If Obama wins (and there is obviously much to be decided), I don't see him choosing HRC as his running mate. She is just too polarizing.

On the other hand, if HRC wins, I definitely could see her choosing Obama.

[jerseyhoya34]

I don't necessarily think Edwards is trying to outlast the runner-up as much as he's just trying to peel away enough delegates to make him a critical player in a fight for delegates.

In terms of delegates awarded through primaries and caucuses (and leaving superdelegates out for the sake of argument), he has enough delegates right now that he could push Hillary ahead. So, it is not too difficult to imagine a "kingmaker" situation. Some have floated the idea that he could be a compromise choice in a brokered convention if neither Obama nor Clinton are able to win enough delegates to secure the nomination.

In terms of running mates, I agree with Filo. HRC might have to select Obama after significantly damaging her standing in the African-American community. With John McCain appearing to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and likely nominee, she can't afford to get trounced like she would otherwise among independents and Reagan Democrats. Obama at least gives her a fighting chance there.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

All of the Edwards delegate talk and the Florida and Michigan primary controversies are pointing to one thing that could spell HUGE trouble for the DNC candidate no matter who it is ... brokered convention.

[The Stig]

Super Tuesday will tell us where this campaign is going. If neither Hillary or Obama is a clear winner that day then the nomination is all over bar the shouting, delegate numbers be damned. You have to keep in mind the effect that previous primaries have on voters (the Kerry-Iowa effect).

The GOP is also in a mess right now as far as picking their candidate. If Huckabee can stay relevant then he could cause a lot of trouble for McCain and Romney. If Giuliani manages to win a state then it'll be mass chaos again.

[jerseyhoya34]

I think the GOP situation comes down to how FL comes out. Romney deperately needs to win, I think, because McCain is going to be very strong in the high volume states on 2/5, particularly CA. If McCain wins FL, I see 2/5 turning into more of a cake walk on the Republican side.

The Dems are in for a long fight, I think, and the Clintons have already been damaged. The endorsement of Caroline Kennedy of Obama seemed particularly powerful, and Ted Kennedy's endorsement only seems to drive home the family's rebuke of the Clintons. In the immediate term, these endorsements give Obama a lift in MA and may help him out in CT.

Kansas' Governor, a rising star in the party, is also endorsing Obama early in the week.

[Boz]

It's most likely that McCain & Romney are basically going to tie Florida. One will win, but only by a few points either way. Whoever it is will get some juice out of that, but it's not going to knock out the other one.

(if it's a decisive win, that changes, but I don't think anyone is expecting a decisive win - then again nothing that anyone's expected has actually happened)

All Florida is going to do is eliminate Giuliani and Huckabee (though Huck might stay in for a little longer).

The Republican race will come down to an A or B option, and, personally, I think it's a very interesting one. Some real differences there. I know conservatives don't like McCain, but except for a few of the annoying ones, I think they will back him for the most part if he comes out on top. I can't say the same for independents backing Romney. All Republicans will back him, but I don't think he expands the base at all. He might be able to beat Hillary, but probably not Obama. I think McCain could beat either one.

Unrelated note: Is it actually necessary for Ted Kennedy to speak? Can't we give him, like, an Etch-A-Sketch or something?

(sorry, I don't like him very much)

Unrelated note 2: Does Edwards really have a shot at VP? Didn't they try that already? I think that would be disaster.

[The Stig]

I think you're right that Florida will knock Giuliani out. Huckabee will probably stick around until at least Super Tuesday.

If the Republicans were picking a candidate without having to worry about the general election I think Huckabee would win. I think he'll still do pretty well in some states, but ultimately he doesn't have the money to run a national campaign. Super Tuesday will do him in.

Romney would probably be the default candidate for the GOP if he wasn't Mormon. I think that alone might be enough to hand the nomination to McCain. Sadly the John McCain of 2008 isn't the same guy as the John McCain of 2000. He's lost his maverick status and spent too much time trying to court the religious right. He would have been a fine president 8 years ago.

The problem for the GOP is that elections these days are about turnout, not who has the most support. With either McCain or Romney there's a real risk of the religious right just staying at home on election day, thus handing the election to the Dems. If Hillary wins the Dems' nomination it won't be a problem, because she will turn out the GOP vote just to vote against her. But Obama doesn't have that polarizing nature, and I really don't think many Republicans would turn out just to vote against Obama (and let's face it, most voters these days show up to vote against the other guy, not for their guy).

I think McCain-Obama would be a very interesting campaign. Neither of them inspire the hatred you see directed at the likes of Bush or Hillary, and both seem capable of respecting the other side. I'm not sure that a battle between those two would be as negative or nasty as we've seen in other campaigns. There would be a real possibility (but not a certainty) of a positive, respectful campaign from both sides that focuses on the issues, not the personalities.

Of course, if it ends up being Hillary vs. Romney then we're in for a bloodbath.

[EasyEd]

"With either McCain or Romney there's a real risk of the religious right just staying at home on election day, thus handing the election to the Dems."

Wrong! The religious right will support McCain but the other conservatives may stay at home as they will have a hard time forgiving him for opposing the Bush tax cuts, for his pushing the "comprehensive immigration reform", his McCain-Feingold, and other stands. The religious right will support him because he has been consistently pro-life. Many Democrats, Republicans and Independents will oppose Romney because he is a Morman, as sad as that may be.

[The Stig]

In that case, I stand corrected.

But I still think GOP turnout is more dependent on who the Dems nominate than on the GOP candidate. GOP turnout will be high no matter who gets the GOP nomination if Hillary gets the nod for the Dems. On the other hand I think GOP turnout will be lower than normal if Obama is the candidate for the Dems.

[Deleted]

If its a McCain-Obama race after the conventions, I propose they thumb wrestle, best four-out-of-seven.

The winner is given the Presidency, the loser relegated to VP status. I shudder to think who these guys might tab as their VP candidates...