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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 7, 2008 23:50:11 GMT -5
Post predictions here...
First results from Dixville Notch up shortly.
100% turnout - 12 independents, 2 Democrats, and 5 Republicans.
Republicans
Giuliani - 1 vote
McCain - 4 votes
Romney - 2 votes
Democrats
Obama - 7 votes
Clinton - 0 votes
Edwards - 2 votes
Richardson - 1 vote
--------------------
So, 8 of Dixville Notch's 12 independents voted for Democrats, and we know Obama got at least 5 of them. Maybe an early sign of the problem Zogby pointed out earlier in the week: Obama is suppressing McCain's independent vote and maybe keeping Romney in it (or closer). Then again, Dixville Notch favored W in 2000 (and Bill Bradley). Can anyone say "sample size?"
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 8, 2008 8:02:38 GMT -5
The independents going to Obama rather than McCain will, most likely, only serve to lower McCain's margin of victory, because Romney isn't going to get any. All McCain needs to do is match Romney amongst registered Republicans (something the polls showed him doing) and then the independents that do vote for him will boost him to victory.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 8, 2008 10:35:48 GMT -5
I agree with TBird on McCain.
I really think that Hillary should move to the Bush 2000 strategy of erecting firewalls in States that do not let independents vote in their primaries and then claim those are the true will of the party.
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Elvado
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,080
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Post by Elvado on Jan 8, 2008 10:50:08 GMT -5
Unless and until Hillary can convince the electorate that she is not Elphaba, she's done.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 8, 2008 13:16:43 GMT -5
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Jan 8, 2008 16:01:11 GMT -5
Tip for fellow HoyaTalk-ers:
Never, EVER be sick on a primary day!
Good lord, I would kill for a Mythbusters marathon right now, instead of this cable news pablum all day.
I'm pretty sure I've gotten stupider today.
[insert standard "how is that possible?" joke here]
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Elvado
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,080
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Post by Elvado on Jan 8, 2008 17:29:19 GMT -5
THe Former Fornicator in Chief today had the gall to describe Obama's statement that he had a consistent anti-war position "the biggest fairy tale he's ever seen." As far as lies go, Obama wouldn't even reach Bill's Top ten.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 8, 2008 17:34:30 GMT -5
bummer, boz. sick and inundated with drivel. well, not as much drivel - hopefully - as some of the posts following the blog on abc.com that StPete linked.
i think NH will have less impact on SC and Super Tuesday than in previous years. i have nothing to back this up, just a hunch. still, a strong showing keeps McCain around a little longer. on the Dem side, I don't see how Obama doesn't win, if the projections are accurate that is.
Still waiting for Feb 5 like we all wait for the Big East to start.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 8, 2008 17:39:10 GMT -5
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 8, 2008 17:43:22 GMT -5
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
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Post by kchoya on Jan 8, 2008 19:52:25 GMT -5
From Drudge:
8.97% IN: OBAMA 36; CLINTON 38; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 4; KUCINICH 2..
8.97% IN: MCCAIN 37; ROMNEY 28; HUCKABEE 12; PAUL 8; GIULIANI 9; THOMPSON 1...
As a Republican, that would be incredible if Clinton can keep it close with Obama - a miracle if she wins (based on recent polling/reporting)
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 8, 2008 23:17:25 GMT -5
Well, McCain has good momentum moving forward, I hope, with Huckabee being a solid contender in SC. MI becomes the last stand, possibly, for Romney.
Hillary gets some momentum here today, and one wonders how this will affect the landscape in SC and NV.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Post by The Stig on Jan 9, 2008 1:13:47 GMT -5
Hillary lives to fight another day, but Obama should be pleased with his performance considering where he was a couple weeks ago.
The Republican race is more unpredictable than a Vernon Macklin free throw.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 9, 2008 7:56:08 GMT -5
an amazing win for Hillary last night, but did anyone see the Obama concession speech - wow, he is an amazing orator.
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DanMcQ
Moderator 
Posts: 32,853
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Post by DanMcQ on Jan 9, 2008 9:19:42 GMT -5
an amazing win for Hillary last night How so? 3-4 months ago, her lead in polls was so large that there seemed to be little reason for any of the others to campaign in NH. |
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Post by EasyEd on Jan 9, 2008 10:12:57 GMT -5
The reposts of Hillary's death were greatly exagerated. The cry worked.
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bubbrubbhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
We are the intuitive minds that plot the course. Woo-WOOO!
Posts: 1,369
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Post by bubbrubbhoya on Jan 9, 2008 12:06:30 GMT -5
an amazing win for Hillary last night, but did anyone see the Obama concession speech - wow, he is an amazing orator. Wait, Obama is a good speaker? WHAT! Why did no one tell me this before!  |
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 11, 2008 0:49:44 GMT -5
an amazing win for Hillary last night, but did anyone see the Obama concession speech - wow, he is an amazing orator. Wait, Obama is a good speaker? WHAT! Why did no one tell me this before! Chris Matthews was trying to tell you that, it just got lost in his 5 minute Lawrence of Arabia metaphor. |
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