DaHoya
Member
Opie and Anthony on Sirius XM
Posts: 82
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Post by DaHoya on Dec 8, 2007 14:45:04 GMT -5
Why would anyone take these projections seriously at all? Look at WV's page. Because they are currently the 1 team in the RPI, he has them projected to win all of the rest of their games. It's almost like seeing a guy hit a homerun in the first game of the season, then having an announcer make the joke that the batter is projected to hit 162 homeruns for the season. Sure, technically both Pomeroy's projections and the announcer have some sliver of logic behind them, but common sense shows how little value the projections hold. So, to respond to the first poster, Pomeroy's projections at this point are illustrative of nothing.
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Post by afalcon10 on Dec 9, 2007 2:28:13 GMT -5
these rankings are a bunch of garbage, they have us losing to providence! My suggestion: watch the teams on tv and size up our chances yourself instead of listening to some numbers.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 9, 2007 9:57:45 GMT -5
The projections will change as teams play more games, they will reflect play more and more as the season progresses they'll be fairly accurate come big east season.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Dec 16, 2007 7:43:09 GMT -5
This morning's Pomeroy ratings are an object lesson in why sample size matters and why ill-informed lashing out at mathematical evaluation models can be quickly made to look silly. As of this morning, the Pomeroy algorithm has us at #7 and favored to win all but three of our games - at Pitt, at WV and at Marquette - despite having had the worst schedule among the Pomeroy top 20. The model also has us favored to win at Memphis.
I admit that having West Virginia as the number one rated team in Pomeroy causes cognitive dissonance, but the simple fact is that West Virginia has been playing better teams than us and has been beating them more soundly than we have until quite recently - West Virginia is also #1 in Sagarin's Predictor model.
To the extent that our rating has been suppressed because we have been "working on things" we should continue to see our rating go up when the work translates into continued success as witnessed in the past two games.
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Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
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Post by Locker on Dec 16, 2007 8:38:25 GMT -5
If we got our FT% fixed, we might be # 1 in the nation in offensive efficiency. We're first in effective FG% (like last year), but we've really cut down on our turnovers. We take and make a TON of threes -- there are only two other teams from BCS conferences who take threes at the rate we do (Northwestern and Tennessee), and we're hitting over 40% of our tries.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Dec 16, 2007 11:14:13 GMT -5
FWIW - he now has us going 24-5.
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