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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Dec 7, 2007 11:38:03 GMT -5
kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Georgetown&t=pIts not pretty. He has us losing a lot of road games in the Big East. And going 0-2 to end the Big East regular season. These predictions are based on metrics that are, of course, subject to change. Its merely a projection of how we'd do if every team continues to play the same quality of basketball. Still, its illustrative of why improvement is needed.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,901 
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Dec 7, 2007 11:45:39 GMT -5
I believe around this time last year kenpom had us going 9-7 in the BE and obviously that number improved as the season wore on. We're not great right now, but we'll improve just like last season.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2007 11:54:55 GMT -5
22-7 overall, 12-6 in conference? I'll take that prediction, especially considering I don't think the Hoyas will lose TWICE to Louisville, AND at Pitt, WVU, Providence and Marquette. III has a way of making opponents play his game. And hell... even if they do lose those games, that's not too far off last year's 13-3.
That said, I fully expect the team to improve over the course of the year they way they do EVERY year, as KHoyaNYC mentioned.
EDIT: [Thanks for the heads-up, dajuan]
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Post by dajuan on Dec 7, 2007 11:58:46 GMT -5
EDIT: Pomeroy (unless he had us slated for a loss in these first six games) added wrong on his site. Using his predictions, we'll finish 22-7/12-6, not 21-8/11-7. No he didn't. From his site: **Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that will inevitably happen during the season. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2007 12:01:26 GMT -5
EDIT: Pomeroy (unless he had us slated for a loss in these first six games) added wrong on his site. Using his predictions, we'll finish 22-7/12-6, not 21-8/11-7. No he didn't. From his site: **Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that will inevitably happen during the season. Thanks. Fixed it. Talk about a cop-out! Accounting for unexpected results that will inevitably happen during the season, I predict Georgetown will go 27-2, losing only to St. John's and Depaul. |
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,446
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Post by lichoya68 on Dec 7, 2007 12:08:55 GMT -5
JUST WIN ONE BY ONE BY AT LEAST ONE AND HAVE SOME FUN AND SHOW THE BAST.........BASTED TURKEYS THAT IS GO HOYAS B EAT THE VILLE NOT LOUIS YET ;D
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 7, 2007 12:37:35 GMT -5
The thing about KenPom's projections, as he readily admits/announces, is that they are just that, PROJECTIONS, rather than PREDICTIONS.
As such, they are based on a limited sample size at this point, both in terms of meausuring our team's performance, as well as adjusting for competition. Much like the early season RPI numbers, these projections, and the rankings that drive them, will start to make a lot more sense by mid-to-late January, as teams begin league play.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,482
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Post by hoyarooter on Dec 7, 2007 13:11:40 GMT -5
Two losses to Louisville, a 17 point loss to West Virginia, and a 3 point win at St. Johns? Hmm. Where can I get some of that action?
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Post by Hoya TMF on Dec 7, 2007 13:13:45 GMT -5
This may be completely outrageous, but if we beat Memphis, does anyone else think we could possibly go undefeated.?I know it's not likely at all, but look at our schedule, does anyone other than Memphis really make you worry? Not me. Maybe that's because with the injury to Padgett, the Big East is not as strong as it could have been. I don't know. I'm sure Marquette and Nova could give us fits, but I really think (in theory) we could run the table. As last year indicated, we don't get distracted by long win streaks. Maybe now I've doomed us, but I'm not superstitious. We shall see. Go Hoyas!
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Post by ExcitableBoy on Dec 7, 2007 13:18:08 GMT -5
The thing about KenPom's projections, as he readily admits/announces, is that they are just that, PROJECTIONS, rather than PREDICTIONS. I only project, never predict. Also, I always measure my height with shoes on. |
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,928
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Post by Filo on Dec 7, 2007 13:27:57 GMT -5
The chances of us going undefeated if we beat Memphis are pretty damn slim. Remember NDNation saying the same thing last year. Ha!
We could easily lose a bunch of games that we should win, including 01/08: at DePaul; 01/12: CONNECTICUT; 01/19: NOTRE DAME; 01/21: SYRACUSE; 02/11: VILLANOVA. Hopefully, we take care of business.
Then, we have the real tests, of which we will likely lose at least a couple:
01/14: at Pittsburgh
01/26: at W. Virginia
02/09: at Louisville
02/16: at Syracuse
03/01: at Marquette
03/08: LOUISVILLE.
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thornski
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 155
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Post by thornski on Dec 7, 2007 15:51:29 GMT -5
I like the Pomeroy stats as much as the next guy, but I agree, it's still early to be putting too much into those projections. Still too small a sample I think. I mean as of now, we have a 31% chance to beat Memphis away, but only a 4% chance to beat West Virginia away? Something seems a bit off about that.
And going undefeated is a huge huge stretch. I agree with you that if you look at every game individually, yes we have a very good chance to win each individual game. But keep in mind statistics-wise that even if we had a 90% chance to win each and every remaining game (which is certainly being way too over-optimistic), our chance of going undefeated is a little under 9% (and that's just for the regular season).
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Post by dajuan on Dec 7, 2007 16:09:21 GMT -5
But keep in mind statistics-wise that even if we had a 90% chance to win each and every remaining game (which is certainly being way too over-optimistic), our chance of going undefeated is a little under 9% (and that's just for the regular season). I don't understand Pomeroy's percentages. Didn't someone explain over the summer that if there are 2 options, each has a 50% chance of occurring? I think it was in a Roy/Jeff will they stay discussion. Obviously, since Roy stayed and Jeff left that poster proved to be a prophet. |
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FLHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Proud Member of Generation Burton
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Post by FLHoya on Dec 7, 2007 16:48:57 GMT -5
The chances of us going undefeated if we beat Memphis are pretty damn slim. Remember NDNation saying the same thing last year. Ha! My favorite moments of last season: 1. Jon Wallace hits three pointer to tie UNC with less than one minute remaining in Elite 8. 2. NDNation poster projects Irish to go 27-1 in regular season a day or so prior to playing GTown. 3. I win free banana pudding in Kernersville, NC on night before Second Round NCAA game for answering comically easy trivia question at barbecue joint (Who is UCLA's basketball coach?) What I'm implying here is that...if whoever did it doesn't edit that undefeated remark, Jacksonville will unquestionably open the game Sunday on a 20-2 run to spite us.  |
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Dec 7, 2007 16:50:08 GMT -5
The projections were up earlier this week -- Pomeroy projected the Hoyas would beat Alabama by a score of 70-60.
Aaah! Everybody get scared!
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Dec 7, 2007 16:59:45 GMT -5
The final projection is based on probability. If a team is estimated to have a 66.6 percent chance of winning in each of three different games, the team would be favored in all three but the probability would be two wins and one loss.
There is nothing inherently wrong with these projections if you know that they merely compare the results so far this season. Georgetown does not run up 40 or 50 point wins against bad teams the way that other teams do and Georgetown has not played any top teams. Georgetown will rise in the rating by beating above average teams, not by putting up big numbers against below average teams.
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Saxifrage
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 121
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Post by Saxifrage on Dec 7, 2007 17:43:14 GMT -5
The predictions are based simply on his "pythagorean" rating of the teams so far. Georgetown, has played mostly weak teams so far and played them close--for a variety of reasons, including JTIII's experimenting with the lineups--so the team's rankings in the Kenpom system is low.
West Virginia's ranking, however, is very high in his system. And rightly so, I think: They've been playing very well. But that's what makes the Hoya's chances 4% against West Virginia.
This will change, of course, as the season moves along. At the very least there will be, among all the teams, a regression toward the mean--and West Virginia's stratospheric Kenpom rankings will decline.
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Post by coloradohoya on Dec 7, 2007 18:05:03 GMT -5
IIRC, his projections going into BE season last year had us finishing 9-7 in the BE. By midway through, it was closer to 12-4 or 13-3. It just takes about 12-15 games for these models to really start working. The same thing is true with RPI.
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jacko
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
GET SOME
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Post by jacko on Dec 7, 2007 18:23:24 GMT -5
I wasn't happy to see this last year - he had us predicted to go 13-16 this early on. I laughed at it, which is what you need to do with a sample size this small (any data this early in the season). I mean, it's not like he's predicting anything. He's crunching numbers. Anyway, I think some of his info is mildly interesting late in the season. I'm just opposed to statistics in general when discussing basketball matters.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Dec 8, 2007 13:28:55 GMT -5
This list is ridiculous. As I said before, it's a ridiculous thought, but other than Memphis on the road, there isn't a game on our schedule that I don't think we can and should win. Some of them will be tougher than others, but Louisville is banged up and we are head ans shoulders above everyone else in terms of talent, esperience and the ability to win close games. The thing about Pomeroy is that there is no subjective element, and it doesn't take into account that we are a team the improves as the year goes on. Pomeroy certainly didn't predict our streak last year. There's no reason why we couldn't make a similar run without a blow out loss to the dreaded Cuse.
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