Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 18,481
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Dec 20, 2004 16:56:56 GMT -5
Just looking for where Georgetown was ranked, and I came across this curious pairing at numbers 51 and 52 - UConn and Gardner-Webb (whom UNLV plays tomorrow). Is the season still too early to take any of these ratings seriously?
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 20, 2004 17:06:21 GMT -5
Yes. Until teams really start to get into their conference seasons, it's tough to get a good gauge of who has played strong or weak competition, as well as who has been good, and who has gotten lucky. Check back in a month, and they'll start to resemble reality.
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Dec 20, 2004 17:17:00 GMT -5
Gardner Webb has played a better schedule than UConn.
UConn has played no one higher than 150 in Pomeroy's ratings, and played one away game and lost to a weak UMass team.
Gardner Webb lost at Arkansas and Georgia, and won at Central Florida and Florida Atlantic and beat East Carolina by 30 at home. Those are not great teams, but they are as good or better than anyone UConn has beaten. No one knows how good UConn is until they play a real basketball game.
Pomeroy ranks UConn #40 and Gardner Webb #60.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Dec 20, 2004 17:38:05 GMT -5
There are two components to Sagarin - Predictor which is a margin of victory model and ELO Chess which simply measures who beat who. From a model standpoint, Elo Chess has a very low level of confidence early in the season with teams that have basically played to form (i.e. been beaten by those teams that are clearly better than they are, but beat the teams that they are better than). If you look at the Sagarin components, UConn is about 70 places higher than Gardner Webb, which does feel more realistic.
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