Latest ESPN Draft Machine

[H2Oya 05]

In most of the mock drafts from the updated machine, Roy goes between 9 and 11, and Jeff is not in the lottery. If that is where they are likely to go, they would be foolish to go pro. With another year, and with them likely moving up over the next year, they would be likely to earn more by staying. If espn is right, I hope Jeff is doing well enough in his classes to decide to stay another year to go in the top 10.

[FairfaxHoya]

Yeah, but can you really see a team drafting Hawes ahead of Green and Hibbert? Honestly, I just can't.

[TBird41]

doogie said:

Yeah, but can you really see a team drafting Hawes ahead of Green and Hibbert? Honestly, I just can't.

Never underestimate the stupidity of an NBA GM

[brookbarringer]

h2oya05 said:

With another year, and with them likely moving up over the next year, they would be likely to earn more by staying. If espn is right, I hope Jeff is doing well enough in his classes to decide to stay another year to go in the top 10.

1) You do realize that if they stay in school, the money they would have earned next year won't be waiting there for them when they declare, right?

2) "Likely moving up next year"? Why, because seniors always fly up NBA draft boards? Or because OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon are all going to decide they love college too much? The incoming frosh class is more NBA-ready than this one.

[HealyHoya]

Actually, depending on need, Spencer Hawes would go before Jeff and, possible, before Roy.

[chep3]

Yes but most of those guys you named are pgs. Not every time needs a pg and most teams don't draft them that high. Also, that's expecting they all have good seasons next year, and I can see Rose staying another year at least because he's going to have to fight like hell for playing time on Memphis. Jeff is gonna be a 3, and a lot of people have Durant, J. Wright, and Brewer all rated higher than him, with Thaddeus Young supposed to be in the lottery as well. Roy is competing with Oden, Horford, Noah, Hawes, B. Wright, and that 7 foot Chinese guy as bigs in the lottery. All conventional wisdom says that this is the deepest draft in quite a few years. I think it's more than fair to say that they will likely move up next year just based on the lack of players they would have to compete with both size wise and quality wise.

[SFHoya99]

Anyone who picks Hawes before Roy is moronic. I can see Hawes before Jeff if you're drafting for need (though I'm not a big fan of that), but I fail to see how Hawes is in anyway a better prospect than Roy. He's only a year younger, didn't lead his team anywhere, is similarly skilled but I think less athletic, IMO. Roy has proven to be a hard worker and coachable. Hawes hasn't (though that's not to say he isn't).

[RDF]

brookbarringer said:

h2oya05 said:

With another year, and with them likely moving up over the next year, they would be likely to earn more by staying. If espn is right, I hope Jeff is doing well enough in his classes to decide to stay another year to go in the top 10.

1) You do realize that if they stay in school, the money they would have earned next year won't be waiting there for them when they declare, right?

2) "Likely moving up next year"? Why, because seniors always fly up NBA draft boards? Or because OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon are all going to decide they love college too much? The incoming frosh class is more NBA-ready than this one.

This year's incoming class is NOT more ready NBA wise then this year's class of FR--that is ASSNINE and anyone who follows basketball would rip you a new one for saying so. The guys you named are nice prospects--but have a long ways to go before proving they are dominant NBA players--I love Derrick Rose's game, but the clamor for guards is never as high as bigs-and skilled talent like the 6'10 Durant. Oden, Durant are both better then anyone in this class. I'd take Mike Conley over Mayo and Beasley right now--Gordon and Rose could be better--but they'll have to prove it like Conley did. Remember, Daquan Cook and Wayne Ellington were talked about like Gordon was and they both had good years--but need more time.

The class of '07 will be great for COLLEGE ball because they have kids who will need to stick around at least 3 years in most cases. That will make deeper teams, more experienced teams, and make for better games/sport better.

Who in the hell are you to say the money they "leave" won't be there next year? Do you understand basketball at all? From your posts the answer is obvious and I'll leave it at that. Yeah, I'd rather have a 6'8 PF who shows no consistent level of dominance over a 7'2 center who is as offensively advanced as anyone to enter league in last 10 years. Jeff Green wouldn't be as valuable as OJ Mayo--afterall Jeff only played in Big East while Mayo took 35 shots to get 28 points against Podunk HS in WV. The problem with many of your viewpoints is that you buy into hype of rankings and take that SLAM Magazine viewpoint. Watch people play and how they influence a game before you annoint them as next coming. Beasley looked great in an unstructured game like McDonald's game--and looked like CRAP in Nike Hoop Summit where some kid from France busted his rear all over the court. I've seen Beasley play in HS games where I felt he was the 4th best player on court. He's got the chance to be the next Ndudi Ebi if he leaves after a year. OJ Mayo has talent-but he's not as great as he thinks and the NBA doesn't need 6'3 volume shooters. He better learn how to lead a team and make them better by blending in--which he's not proven. Only teams he's succeeded on are those where he does whatever he wants against mediocre competition--WV and KY HS basketball is not very good. This isn't LeBron James we're talking about--he's more Telfair then anything and despite "Bassy's" rep--in NYC, I doubt many GMS want the next version.

[HoNYaSaxa]

Wow RDF -- I was typing Telfair's name into the Quick Reply box as I was reading the beginning of your post, only to see it pop up at the end. Telfair's is a cautionary tale for any GM thinking about Mayo -- No way he goes 1 or 2 in the draft next year. If Conley comes out, he'll go top 10. Gordon and Rose are likely 2-year or more players. Beasley is top 5. I don't see anyone else other than Mayo or Beasley challenging Jeff and Roy for Top 5 status next year.

[hoyaLS05]

honyasaxa said:

I don't see anyone else other than Mayo or Beasley challenging Jeff and Roy for Top 5 status next year.

DaJuan Summers?

Kidding.

Sort of.

[vamosalaplaya]

www.insidehoops.com/salaries-rookies.shtml

Just from a pure monetary standpoint. Forget the joy of senior year or the chance to win a title.

This is the link for the NBA rookie salary scale. Somewhere on this board is a math major willing to calculate what sort of draft jump Green and Hibbert would have to make next year to forego going pro this year. Taken into account in that calculation would be that going pro this year would result in money they wouldn't earn otherwise; and if you assume a successful pro career, they would get paid off this scale sooner by going pro a year earlier because they would come off the scale. It's a time value of money thing.

The major differences in salary occur in the top five picks, then the drop slows. From picks one through five the annual salary drops about $250-$300K a year; after that the drop is lower.

Another way to look at it is jumping from, say, 16 to 11 in the draft doesn't result in alot of extra money over the first three years, considering that if you go pro now you earn over $1MM next year you wouldn't if you stayed in school, and then get free of the salary scale a year sooner as your career progresses. That would seem to say it is better to get picked 16th now and get on with it then to try and make it to 11 next year.

It would seem to me that Hibbert has the better chance to stay and get himself in the top five next year. Not sure Green has that upside, and might have more volatility.

Something tells me every sports agent has this figured out on a chart somewhere for potential clients to look at.

[lichoya68]

stay and get the ring gohoyas go jeff and roy rmember those florida guys getting their second ring you gottat finish business and get at least one its once in a lifetime go hoyas 2008 will be great

[SFHoya99]

The real difference in money isn't in the rookie scale.

On the side of jumping early, you get to extend your paid playing career likely by one year more. You get to your first "big" contract earlier although it may not really pay out more over your career.

On the side of staying in, the more polished you are in the NBA, the higher your likelihood of sticking and getting that big contract at all. That's a risk few have talked about. But we've seen plenty of guys go early, never get PT and never get more than their rookie deal. Three million is a lot, but it's nothing compared to contract #2.

[PopeJohn2]

sfhoya99 said:

The real difference in money isn't in the rookie scale.

On the side of jumping early, you get to extend your paid playing career likely by one year more. You get to your first "big" contract earlier although it may not really pay out more over your career.

On the side of staying in, the more polished you are in the NBA, the higher your likelihood of sticking and getting that big contract at all. That's a risk few have talked about. But we've seen plenty of guys go early, never get PT and never get more than their rookie deal. Three million is a lot, but it's nothing compared to contract #2.

this is just not true. for example, the difference in money between being the #5 pick vs. the #12 pick is about $1 million per year for 3 years.

so if you come out in 2007 as a #12 pick, you make
2007 $1.5mm
2008 $1.5mm
2009 $1.5mm
total $4.5mm
2010 sign big contract

if you come out in 2008 as a #5 pick, you make
2007 priceless prestige of winning an ncaa championship
2008 $2.5mm
2009 $2.5mm
2010 $2.5mm
total $7.5mm
2011 sign big contract

so yes, you do get to hopefully sign a big contract 1 year earlier if you come out earlier, but that contract will be the same in duration (i.e. such as a 5 year $60 million deal) whether you come out in 2007 or 2008. that contract is guaranteed. you will be 28 or 29 by the time that contract expires. then you try to sign another 7 year mega-deal for $105 million. by the end of that contract you will be either 36 or 37. you are thinking of retiring or trying to sign a 1, 2 or 3 year deal for $1 million bucks per.

so if you follow along, the 1st big contract you sign will not be affected by the year you come out as you will be young either way. the second big contract you sign will be also not be affected whether you are 28 or 29 and hopefully you are so good then that you can name your price.

the key here is, if you move up to the #5 pick by waiting 1 year, you earn $3mm more by your 3rd year. yes, you have 1 year less earning potential, but that year will be at the tail end of your career when you are 36-40 and be making $500k to $1mm per year.

so the trade off is what extra will you earn in the early years by waiting 1 year and will that offset what you would expect to earn your last year in the league. when you include the interest/appreciation you will earn from investing that extra $3mm between the age of 21 and 40, its a big number.

yes, taxes have been ignored. but i am just trying to point out the economic trade off. priceless value of winning an ncaa championship aside, if you cant move up in the draft by waiting a year, it makes no sense to do it. but if you can move up even 3 spots, it probably makes sense. you have to weigh this against the risk you get injured or stock drops.

note, for jeff and roy and oden, the decision is tougher than for afflalo or durant as georgetown and osu both have legit shots to win a championship next year whereas texas and ucla dont have as good a shot so the attraction of staying is much less.

[miamihoya]

popejohn2 said:

note, for jeff and roy and oden, the decision is tougher than for afflalo or durant as georgetown and osu both have legit shots to win a championship next year whereas texas and ucla dont have as good a shot so the attraction of staying is much less.

I agree on Durant, but I think UCLA would have been favorites to make another trip to the final four (and still might) if Afflalo had returned, considering they will likely be returning the whole team, plus add a great freshmen in Kevin Love.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

All hail the draft machine, the purveyor of truth.

[FromTheBeginning]

Another factor in the "stay another year" debate for the high profile player on a team that will be featured on national TV all year is how much additional name recognition do you develop and how much does that bump up your shoe contract and other outside earning potential. It's not just about the salary scale. That's why it is essential to for these kids to have competent "professional input" before they make this decision.

[HealyHoya]

sfhoya99 said:

Anyone who picks Hawes before Roy is moronic. I can see Hawes before Jeff if you're drafting for need (though I'm not a big fan of that), but I fail to see how Hawes is in anyway a better prospect than Roy. He's only a year younger, didn't lead his team anywhere, is similarly skilled but I think less athletic, IMO. Roy has proven to be a hard worker and coachable. Hawes hasn't (though that's not to say he isn't).

Yeah, I'm not saying Hawes is better than Roy or that I would take him before either Jeff or Roy but rather that stranger things have happened in the NBA draft than some GM/front office/coach deciding Hawes is the way to go.

[ExcitableBoy]

popejohn2 said:

sfhoya99 said:

The real difference in money isn't in the rookie scale.

On the side of jumping early, you get to extend your paid playing career likely by one year more. You get to your first "big" contract earlier although it may not really pay out more over your career.

On the side of staying in, the more polished you are in the NBA, the higher your likelihood of sticking and getting that big contract at all. That's a risk few have talked about. But we've seen plenty of guys go early, never get PT and never get more than their rookie deal. Three million is a lot, but it's nothing compared to contract #2.

this is just not true. for example, the difference in money between being the #5 pick vs. the #12 pick is about $1 million per year for 3 years.

so if you come out in 2007 as a #12 pick, you make
2007 $1.5mm
2008 $1.5mm
2009 $1.5mm
total $4.5mm
2010 sign big contract

if you come out in 2008 as a #5 pick, you make
2007 priceless prestige of winning an ncaa championship
2008 $2.5mm
2009 $2.5mm
2010 $2.5mm
total $7.5mm
2011 sign big contract

Pope,

The point isn't whether you make $4.5 or $7.5 mil in your first contract, it's whether your second contract is massive (which would dwarf the first one), decent, or nonexistant.

Yes, the $1 mil salary difference per year is a ton of money. But the real money isn't made on your rookie contract. It's made on the second or third contracts. Your argument holds that the player wouldn't develop any more skills by playing another year of college ball. For some players--especially Roy, who has to be one of the hardest working, most dedicated players in this or next years draft--that year of development can make the difference between being the 11th or 12th guy on the team and being a solid player.

[HoNYaSaxa]

No has mentioned that shoe and other ad contracts may be easier to come by next year, when the draft is less flooded with marketable talent. So, also, are the NBA rookie accolades (All-Rookie Team, Rookie of the Year, etc.).

Not only do Jeff and/or Roy stand to gain monetarily from the rise up the draft board that would happen in 2008, they also stand to gain from the supplemental contracts that REALLY buoy young NBA talents' compensation.