Will We Be Ranked in the AP Tomorrow?

[RockawayHoya]

If you're going to spend 60 seconds posting "Rankings don't mean anything," don't waste your time. I would agree with you.

But it's interesting (at least to me) to see how teams near us in the AP rankings did this week (and by "how they did," I really mean "lost games"). This is just an examination of what happened to the lower third of the current Top 25 and ARV teams this week, including us:

#19 Clemson: lost at #4 UNC, def. Boston College
#20 Notre Dame: lost at Villanova, vs. South Florida today
#21 Texas: lost at #12 Oklahoma State, lost at Villanova
#22 Tennessee: lost to Auburn, def. South Carolina
#23 Virginia Tech: lost at Florida State, vs. #27 Maryland today
#24 Marquette: def. Louisville, at #6 Pittsburgh today
#25 Kentucky: def. South Carolina, lost to Vanderbilt
#26 Washington State: def. Washington
#27 Maryland: lost at Virginia, at #23 Va. Tech today
#28 UConn: lost at #6 Pittsburgh, lost to Indiana
#29 West Virginia: def. South Florida, lost at Cincinatti
#30 Georgia Tech: lost at #4 UNC
#31 Georgetown: def. @rutgers, def. @seton Hall
#32 Indiana: def. Iowa, def. @uconn
#33 Boston College: def. Miami, lost at #19 Clemson
#34 USC: def. #11 Arizona, def. @arizona St.
#35 Syracuse: def. Cincinatti, at St. John's today

My feelings:

Clemson and ND will drop but stay in the polls, as their losses weren't bad. Texas lost to good teams on the road, but lost twice, so they're out. Tennessee and Virginia Tech, and Kentucky all lost to teams they shouldn't have, so they're all out. Marquette will stay in regardless of their outcome at Pitt. So by my count, 4 teams will fall out of the Top 25.

Who will take their place? Washington St. seems like a good bet after they killed Washington at home. Maryland, WVU, UConn, Georgia Tech, and BC aren't going to rise after all losing this week. Both us and Indiana won twice this week, as did USC. Syracuse has a chance to join that group of teams that went 2-0 this week. And although Nova didn't receive any votes coming into this week, they posted two wins vs. ND and Texas, and you can bet they will get in or close to the Top 25 tomorrow.

So, ultimately:
Out: Texas, Tennessee, Va. Tech, Kentucky
In: Washington State, Nova, Indiana, and either us or Syracuse

Based on that, since the AP voters are far more likely to pay attention to the actual games than the coaches, will Syracuse be penalized for nearly losing to Cincinatti at home, and will they see that we won twice comfortably on the road?

I wouldn't put money on it, but I have a feeling we might be #25 tomorrow afternoon. Not necessarily because we deserve it, but moreso by default.

Discuss...

[HoyaSinceBirth]

It's a distinct possibility because of all the losses that teams racked up this weak. but for some reason i feel we'll fall just short. Of course last time we had this discussion i thought we'd just make it. so.

[HealyHoya]

We need to have another week like this before we are ranked. beat Depaul and Cincy, go to 15-5 (5-2) and we're somewhere between 20-25. i don't think we've done enough to warrant top-25 status...yet.

[Massholya]

I think no. We are having an extremely hard time living down that ODU loss and no one seems to take notice that our other losses really were not 'bad' losses. This holds especially true for the coaches poll. I don't see us cracking the top 25 there unless we win our next 6 in a row. The AP voters, while more thoughtful, will I think in the end still keep us just outside looking in.

[AustinHoya03]

Rockaway, I think the polls are a bit less volatile in January than your hypothetical suggests. Remember, we didn't crack the Top 25 following the Duke win last season. I don't think Tennessee will drop out. You also need to factor in teams not in the Top 35: Texas Tech will pick up some votes based on defeating KU yesterday.

Personally, I see us showing up around #29 or #30.

[LizziebethHoya]

Don't forget about Marquette - if they play Pitt well, even if they lose, they may still have a chance to be ranked. And if they win, they're ranked.

I wrote this on the board yesterday, and as much as I can't stand to admit it, I think Cuse will/should be ranked. Comparing them and us, we're similar. The only difference is that a lot of our games are not really close like theirs, but, they beat Nova and we didn't. Regardless, we'll see tomorrow .

[RockawayHoya]

Austin, I think you're right about Texas Tech. I thought of Nova, but forgot about TTU in terms of teams outside the ARV category who picked up big wins this week. Good call on that.

Lizzie, I said that I thought Marquette would stay ranked win or lose at Pitt. There's always a chance they could fall out though, but I think they won't fall too far (Petersen, after all is probably one of the five toughest home court advantages in the country).

Totally unrelated to the polls, but just a quick comparison of us vs. Cuse:

Georgetown
-Record: 13-5
-Home/Away Splits: 8-3/5-2
-RPI/SOS: 35/25
-Vs. the RPI Top 50/Top 100: 2-4/3-5
-Top 50 wins: ND, at Michigan
-Outside Top 100 losses: none

Cuse
-Record: 15-4
-Home/Away Splits: 12-3/3-0
-RPI/SOS: 38/31
-Vs. the RPI Top 50/Top 100: 2-3/5-4
-Top 50 wins: at Marquette, Nova
-Outside Top 100 losses: none

That's about as close as it gets. Slightly better RPI/SOS for us, but better quality wins and record against the top 50 and 100 for them. It's a toss up.

[hoya95]

You can never underestimate the importance of TV and hype in the polls. That's one of the biggest reasons the polls can be absurd. We lost to Old Dominion in a non-televised Sunday night game, and I don't think half the pollsters were even aware of it. It was the following week that we dropped like a rock. We might have thumped Seton Hall, but we did it in a random Friday night game that very few saw and one that was never even mentioned on ESPN. It'll be another week at least.

[Dhall]

Everybody knows Rutgers and Seton Hall are horrible teams and it's pretty clear the Big East is weak. Villanova's win over Texas was nice, but it won't give the league too much respect since Texas has been overrated all year and the Big East has otherwise performed poorly. I'd think voters will look each each week at the Big East standings and basically vote in the top 3 or 4 teams only. We aren't there yet, but after this week we should be.

[Locker]

The Hoyas are #13 in Pomeroy's updated rankings today. Syracuse is #40.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I don't knwo it was on fullcourt which i hope a voter would own. and green's dunk was #6 on the top ten plays of the day so i'm sure people know about this result. The question is will it be enough. I say we'll be the last one ofr two out of the polls but after beating depaul and cinci this week we'll move in.

[prhoya]

IMO, we'll be #24, 25 or 26 (AP) tomorrow.

[KHoyaNYC]

I doubt we'll crack it, but I think we've played very well the last 2 games and can hopefully maintain this type of playing for the next 2 months.

[RockawayHoya]

Forget everything I typed earlier in this thread about Cuse. The possibility of us being ranked tomorrow just got a little bit higher, IMO.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

yeah forget cuse. losing to St. Johns. Haha. Yeah not a chance they're higher than we are tomorrow.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

I don't think we get ranked. Sure a lot of people lost this week but who did we beat? Just two BE bottom-feeders. You've got to do something, preferably on TV to prove that you deserve to be ranked in order to break in.

[guru]

we beat two bad teams like a drum this week, but I don't think that'll be enough to get us into the polls. Beyond the fact that it puts us automatically in the sportscenter highlights, it doesn't do much for us at this point anyway. I'd rather see us keep improving away from the spotlight.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

It's not necessarily about deserving it but i agree ont he 4 teams that are going to fall out of the rankings that rockaway posted.
Of the also recieveing votes the teams that most deserve to move up are washington state, Indiana, USC each won all their games this week and over decent opponents. The only other team on the list of ARV is us so why shouldn't we move in. Nova got to solid wins against bottom top 25 teams but the pollers always take a while to get you from not recieving any votes to in. SO they'll be right on the outside looking in.

UMD lost once so unless they beat VT they'll drop some, Uconn dropped two so they'll drop, WV lost to cinci and beat a weak USF so they'll drop, GT lost althought to a good team they won't gain any votes for that, BC lost a game and Syracuse just lost to st. johns.

So as long as 4 teams drop out i fully expect us to move on in.

[JimmyHoya]

If we drub two more awufl BE teams, they'll let us in.

[TrueHoyaBlue]

No sign of the AP poll yet, but in ESPN's writeup of the coaches poll, we don't appear to be back in (looks like Indiana and Kentucky were the two teams added in).

No listings up for either.