Can G'town Learn Defense in a Week?

[CO_Hoya]

'Cause that's when the big kids show up (Oregon, at Duke).

It's early, but looking at Ken Pomeroy's stats through 4 games (the_way and other stats-haters can skip this thread), our offense is running better than expected (adjOEff = 119.4 -> 20th), especially considering the number of minutes by players new to the team. We finished last season at 117.9 (9th), and you'd expect some improvement as the younger players learn the system.

Defense, by contrast, has been a disaster so far (adjDEff = 114.4 -> 309th). Last year's team ended ranked 38th (adjDEff = 92.9), primarily on the strength of not fouling (FTRate = 27.3 -> 23rd) and preventing offensive rebounds (OR% = 28.8 -> 38th). This year, fouls are way up (FTRate = 43.7 -> 249th), although this may be in part driven by all the fouls given at the end of the ODU game (16 FTs in the last 2:00). Surprisingly (to me), raw OR% is better than last year (26.4 -> 53rd).

So where are the deficiencies? According to kenpom.com, both 2-pt% (46.1/48.8 for 2006/2007) and 3-pt% (34.7/35.7) are up a notch. Moreover, 3FGA/FGA is down slightly (35.7/35.2) while A/FGM is way up (55.1/62.5). To me, this implies that the rotations/switches used to cover open shooters is allowing opponents to make an extra pass for a closer-in shot (e.g. layup or dunk). Defensive block % has gone up (11.3/16.8), with Roy getting 3.8/game(!), more than double what he got last year, but apparently at the detriment of more FT attempts allowed. Roy's numbers may be inflated by the level of competition so far.

In a nutshell, the team appears to be too aggressive on defense, as embodied by PEJr (1 foul every 4.5 minutes), without gaining steals (steal % is down this year [10.2/7.5]), rather than not aggressive enough, which is what I expected before looking at the stats. This may be a sign of a lack of quickness at certain positions, or could just be a result of over-enthusiastic new players biting on fakes too often.

Anyway, having only watched the Fairfield game, would be curious if those who've seen most/all of the games this year think this analysis makes sense, or have another opinion. Further, is this something that can be fixed in a week?

Happy Thanksgiving!


Some stats defined
adjOEff / adjDEff = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent
FTRate = FTA / FGA
OR% = ORopp / (ORopp + DR)
Block % = Blocks/(Opponents’ 2-pt attempts)
Steal % = Steals/(Opponents possessions)

[SFHoya99]

Great post. While i'm sure some will get bogged down in the stats, the message is simple: the defense has been a bigger problem than the offense.

Game by game (Average is 98.5 points per 100 possessions this year):

Hartford: 64/65 possessions. We scored 69, they scored 59. Neither offense nor defense played all that well.
Vanderbilt: 72/73 possessions. We scored 86, they scored 70. Offensive result was great, defense not particularly special.
Old Dominion: 62 possessions. We scored 62, they scored 75. Offense did not play well, but the defense was awful.
Fairfield: 58 possessions. We scored 73, they scored 60. Good offense for us, below average defense.

[PopeJohn2]

ODU scores 48 points in a half. That says it all. Where is Bowman when we need him.

[GIGAFAN99]

There's no question about it. I have very few worries about the offense. I don't think we're going to cough up the ball as much as we've been early simply because the freshmen will get more comfortable and Jeff will settle in (The freshmen and Jeff account for about 30% of our minutes but almost 60% of our turnovers).

But defense is going to be trickier. I think the numbers are a bit worse looking than our core defense actually is because we've played the freshmen so much and Tyler has been out three of those games. The more minutes freshmen get, the worse your defense is going to play, period. I think the core of Wallace, Sapp, Egerson, Green, and Hibbert have looked pretty good defensively.

The developing story though is Dajuan Summers, who showed us his offensive skills last night...and his complete lack of defensive skill. He either overplays or "guards air" giving his man way too much room to work. He hustles and does all the effort things but his defense is just plain bad right now and it probably can't get good very quickly. There are only 5 guys out there so one weak link against a good passing team can foil your plans in a hurry as it leads to fouls (on Jeff or Roy mostly since they're the safety valves) and open jumpers.

I thought Ewing would be playing more and defending small forwards. He has his own issues with fouls but at least he's a solid defender (and if he fouls out, so what, honestly).

But it's looking more and more like Summers might be a major contributor at the three with a start last night that led to a very good offensive game. I don't have a problem with that, but we have to find a way to scheme and substitute around Summers' defense to avoid cheap fouls and easy buckets.

[gujake]

Defense has certainly been the biggest problem so far in my eyes. However, I think it is a good sign that the mistakes are not happening because of a lack of hustle. It's much easier to teach discipline, good switching, etc.

It should also help to get Tyler back.

[Highsmith]

I agree that defense has been a big issue and a big part of that has been REBOUNDING!!! We are getting killed on the boards by just about every team. When I say killed, I don't necessarily meanin the actual rebound margin but just in the fact that we are allowing so many rebounds to these teams and that pretty much every team we have played has either beaten us or stayed close on the boards. We should have a big rebounding advantage against the teams we have played. I know CO_Hoya said the OR% is actually better this season than last, but I think most would agree our rebounding overall has been pretty bad. Maybe getting Tyler back will help, as he really gets after the ball and may fire up some of the "big guys" to do the same!!

[MCIGuy]

Big guys have to be on the floor to actually rebound. I think when Hibbs and Green are both on the court the rebounding is pretty solid at least. But what isn't good it appears is getting to the long rebounds. And that's something the bigs can't control. Its up to the other players to get some of those. Supposedly ODU owned Gtown on that front.

[YB]

I wonder if the defense will improve at any time this year with Summers- that is what I fundamentally meant when I said he plays like he's in a burger game. It's a matter of valuing the ball and defending with intensity. I wonder if the freshmen will "get it" in time to make this a really special season that we all think it could be.

[aggypryd]

The only things that could get in this team's way would be egos and selfishness.

They're just learning.

Very pleased with they're progress thus far.

Summers' 'J' is as smooth as silk.