The Sapp File

[GIGAFAN99]

So here's something as I was looking at some stats from last year. Jessie Sapp played exactly half as many minutes as Cook in conference. So it's really easy to compare their production by just doubling Sapp's output.

The results:

Cook

9.1ppg 2.8assts 2.3rebs 42% FG 37% 3-pt

Sapp

6.4ppg 1.0assts 3.8rebs 45% FG 24% 3-Pt

So I'm looking at this and couldn't help but think, "Wow Sapp really doesn't have that far to go." Now Cook has the intangibles that come with experience of course. But just giving Sapp those minutes without regard to improvements by the frontcourt in getting our guards open or in personal improvement put Sapp just 2.7ppg off Cook's pace. I see the "that's a 50% improvement" coming but we all know that the flow of the game often makes a simple doubling of a reserves numbers a conservative estimate unless that player was specifically designed for "instant offense."

So is this anything? Or are we overestimating Cook relative to Sapp or understimating Sapp relative to Cook? It seems like the consensus is Sapp has a long way to go and our backcourt will be weaker than last year. From the looks of it, that might not be the case.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

I think that we are forgetting that Sapp is ahead of where Cook was at the same time in his progression as a player. That's something that people don't pay much attention to - growth and starting point - for example - Macklin isn't as polished as we'd like him to be at times - is he ahead of where Roy was at the same time? Hell yes. Is he alread a better back up than AKD - yes. Keeping these players ahead of the curve in terms of their growth, skills, and maturity is what this coaching staff is really good at.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

I think Sapp will be better and more consistent, but someone is bound to get in foul trouble and the space behind Wallace & Sapp is where I see the gap. Last year we had Sapp to come in and I don't see anyone filling his shoes. Sapp's shooting will improve significantly this year as he will be in the flow of games and is now used to the college pace.

[SirSaxa]

Sapp got a lot more minutes as the season - including the BE season -- went on, and he performed better as well. Point being, even those BE numbers do not fully reflect where he is. And, like many others, I have a gut feeling we will see a significant jump up in his game this year.

As for who is behind him? Do you remember this time last year? Or Jessie's first game v. Navy -- Deer in the headlights?
We have Tyler, Josh, and Jeremiah as well as MArc. There are guys who can come in a spell him. Jessie can start at the 2G and also give Jon a breather at PG. Besides, the 1 and 2 are largely interchangeable in JT3's offense.

OUr backcourt may not be the strength of the team the way the frontcourt will be, but it won't be a significant weakness either. At least, that's my opinion.

[FairfaxHoya]

I care A TON about that 3-point field goal percentage. 24% is not going to get it down against 2-3 zone defenses this year.

[hoyas2008]

Agreed. We should have plenty of open 3's (double teams inside and/or zone collapsing), we need those 3's to be at least respectable.

[SFHoya99]

I think Jesse will improve and I think he has a good chance to come close to matching Ashanti's numbers. (And Jeff and Roy will make up the rest).

That said, the role Cook filled last year was the role of "quick creator." When the shot clock was low, and there wasn't time or ability to work the ball inside, Cook was the most adept at getting his shot off one on one. He was the number one option when the offense broke down. That cross-over, step back, fadeaway jumper was money.

Now I don't expect Jesse to duplicate that. Jeff will take some of that role, maybe Wallace, maybe we'll get the ball more into Roy, and maybe we'll need less of those shots.

But when we do need perimeter creation, will Jesse be able to create one on one? It doesn't have to be Cook's way -- in fact, Jesse will likely drive more -- but he's going to need to hit some shots when everything else fails b/c sometimes the interior is cut off and Jon is not a great one on one creator (though he has improved as well).

[GIGAFAN99]

I want that west coast flash to become east coast aggression and see a little drive, draw contact, and-ones out of Jessie. We all know he can do it (it was a big part of his game in high school especially in the open floor) and with a year under his belt he'll be strong enough to finish those. New look, same result.

[Nitrorebel]

Just wanted to say I completely underline SirSaxa's post.

Also, you're all forgetting to double the FG% and 3FG%, duh?! So, we should conservatively be looking at 48% from 3, and, gulp, 90% from the field!!! Can we say BE POY?

[FLHoya]

sfhoya99 said:

It doesn't have to be Cook's way -- in fact, Jesse will likely drive more -- but he's going to need to hit some shots when everything else fails b/c sometimes the interior is cut off and Jon is not a great one on one creator (though he has improved as well).

Jon's working on that for sure. He penetrates a lot more in the summer league games than he ever has during the regular season to date. Whether that is a function of the type of game being played in the KL is up for debate.

Jon seems especially assertive at the end of games, as there have been a few times (I'm thinking esp. of the one before the freshmen showed up on the Tombs) where Jon really took charge at the end of games. Not only penetrating, but also playing traffic cop and on-court "coach".

Further, he's also been using a lot of long range pull up jumpers to some success during summer league games.

[hoyaclap]

stpetersburghoya said:

I think that we are forgetting that Sapp is ahead of where Cook was at the same time in his progression as a player.

I wouldn't say all of that. Jessie's numbers may have been slightly better, but Ashanti was hurt for a good part of his frosh season. Even if that doesnt affect his averages, you have to remember that the 2002-2003 team was deeper with guards. And I dont think Jessie could have done what Ashanti did in the NIT that year either. That said, I think that Jessie's soph campaign will pass by Ashanti's.

[CAHoya07]

24% 3-Pt shooting is pretty horrible for a guard, but Jessie actually did improve on this by the end of the year. I expect him to step this up in his game, but fact is he'll probably never be close to as good of a shooter as Ashanti was. Jessie has a different game - he's quicker and can use that to get past defenders for easy layups. If he can make some layups and the occassional three for 5-7 points a game, make good crisp passes and have more assists, play good defense, and overall play a smart game, I'd say we are in pretty good shape.

It will be interesting to see who backs up the 1-2 spots, that is a big question mark. I vote for Crawford, because of his two years of experience and tenacity. I would like to see Thornton to step up as a legit 3-point threat off the bench, but I'm not counting on it just yet.

[GIGAFAN99]

It is at this point I remind everyone of these stats:

17.6%
22.7%
30.2%
10.0%

So what do these numbers mean? They're the freshman-year three-point percentages of Marcus Williams, Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye, and Brandon Roy respectively.

The first two shot 40% their second year. Foye shot 35% by junior year. Roy (who was at 10%!!!) worked his way to 40% by senior year.

Freshman rush shots, get distracted, and have a lot to learn. It's not a stretch to see Jessie improve that part of his game substantially.

[idhoya]

Jesse has looked good from everyone I talked too and that was before Kenner started!

[GIGAFAN99]

Here's another one of those interesting but maybe nothing stats.

Games where Sapp shot 1 or 2 shots from three: 2-24 (8%)

Games where Sapp shot 3 or 4 shots from three: 7-20 (35%)

Sapp had a bad percentage but a lot of that was built on 0-1 performances (15 of them to be exact) which from game to game makes it a bit misleading. When he was able to get into the flow of a game, he was significantly better from outside.

Even more interesting is when he shot 3 or more, he never took a bagel. four 1-3 performances, one 1-4, and one 2-4.

[hoyaboy1]

If Sapp averages 3 3PAs a game and hits 35%, I'll be plenty happy.

[FLHoya]

hoyaclap said:

stpetersburghoya said:

I think that we are forgetting that Sapp is ahead of where Cook was at the same time in his progression as a player.

I wouldn't say all of that. Jessie's numbers may have been slightly better, but Ashanti was hurt for a good part of his frosh season. Even if that doesnt affect his averages, you have to remember that the 2002-2003 team was deeper with guards. And I dont think Jessie could have done what Ashanti did in the NIT that year either. That said, I think that Jessie's soph campaign will pass by Ashanti's.

Important point to make there. Even if you argue that Jessie is farther along in his skill progression at this point (and you can, but should bear in mind the above), Ashanti was WAY ahead in making the fans/students drool over possibilities. I recall his big shot in the South Carolina game his freshman year and the reaction to his "potential" in the student section afterwards. The NIT game against Tennessee speaks for itself (I need to watch that tape again matter of fact).

He was injured for most of his freshman year, but Ashanti sure put in two exciting bookends.

[bmartin]

Sapp had a different role last season. He was in to rest Wallace or Cook, play defense, run the offense, not turn the ball over, take a layup or a wide open look but otherwise not look to shoot. According to the Pomeroy stats, Sapp took 13.6% of the team's shots taken while he was in the game, by far the least in the rotation. The average, of course, is 20%. Cook took 19.6%.
kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgetown

So if Sapp took a three and missed, most games he did not take another one. He kept the ball moving and ran the offense. If he hit his first three, then he probably would take another one or two, but he knew he did not have the green light that Cook had.

Another Pomeroy insight - on his blog he showed that players with good ft% but poor 3 point % almost always improve their 3 point shooting the next season. Sapp shot 75% from the foul line.
kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/back_in_the_lab/

gigafan99 said:

Here's another one of those interesting but maybe nothing stats.

Games where Sapp shot 1 or 2 shots from three: 2-24 (8%)

Games where Sapp shot 3 or 4 shots from three: 7-20 (35%)

Sapp had a bad percentage but a lot of that was built on 0-1 performances (15 of them to be exact) which from game to game makes it a bit misleading. When he was able to get into the flow of a game, he was significantly better from outside.

Even more interesting is when he shot 3 or more, he never took a bagel. four 1-3 performances, one 1-4, and one 2-4.