Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 2, 2006 1:39:54 GMT -5
According to the Louisville TV announcers tonight, the Cardinals have clinched their BET berth because they won and Providence lost.
This means two tough teams will potentially lurk near the bottom of the standings: ND and 'Ville.
I know one thing: if I were Marquette and seeded fifth or sixth, I wouldn't be too happy about the prospect of having to play Louisville again next week. Looks like a very strong possibility that will happen.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 2, 2006 1:43:18 GMT -5
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 2, 2006 1:48:26 GMT -5
Note also the Marquette-Louisville matchup in the 6-11 game.
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Post by bostonhoya05 on Mar 2, 2006 3:19:16 GMT -5
Alright, despite my own preference that we just take the 5 seed, it looks like our Hoyas could get the bye. We shall see.
Other than that, here's the BET scenarios: (I know it's a little late and I may have had a few drinks tonight, so while I'm almost positive these are accurate, I can't be 100%)
#1 seed - Uconn gets it if they beat Louisville OR if Nova loses to Syracuse - Nova gets it if they beat Cuse AND Uconn loses to Louisville
#2 seed - Will be Uconn or Nova - (whomever loses above)
#3 seed - WV locked it up
#4 seed - GU gets it with a win or if both Pitt and Marquette lose - Marq gets it if GU and Pitt lose and they win - Pitt gets it if GU loses and they win
#5 seed - Pitt gets it with a win - Marquette gets it a win and Pitt loss - GU gets it with loss and either Pitt or Marquette loss (but not both)
#6 seed - Pitt gets it with if they lose and Marquette wins - Marquette gets it if Pitt and GU win
#7, #8, #9 - It's going to be SH, Cuse, Cincy in some order - being 8th or 9th doesn't matter because they play one another anyway. - If Cuse loses to Depaul, SH is automatically #7 - If Cuse beats Depaul, only way SH is not #7 is if they lose to Pitt and Cuse beats Nova - Cincy cannot get up to #7
#10, #11, #12 - Before we begin, USF is obviously definitely out
- There is only one scenario where Depaul can get in: they have to beat both Syracuse AND ND and then have Marquette beat Louisville and Rutgers beat St. John's
- Louisville IS definitely in. Welcome back to the BET, Mr. Pitino. They cannot finish #10 unless they beat Uconn in Hartford - only #11 or #12. They'll be #11 (and likely play Marquette) if Rutgers beats St. John's. If St. John's wins, Louisville will be #12 and get to play Pitt (most likely).
- Rutgers will be #10 if they beat St. John's and Louisville loses to Uconn. - Rutgers will be #11 if they lose to St. John's but Marquette beats Providence and Depaul beats ND. - Rutgers is out if they lose to St. John's and either (a) Providence beats Marquette or (b) ND beats Depaul. - Rutgers cannot be the #12.
- St. John's is in if they beat Rutgers. Otherwise, if Uconn beats Louisville, they're out. - St. John's will be the #10 if they beat Rutgers unless (see below). - St. John's will be #11 if they beat Rutgers but Depaul bets both Cuse and ND AND Providence beats Marquette. - St. John's is out if they lose. (So yes, basically the winner of St. John's and Rutgers is in and the loser goes home).
- Providence can only get in if they beat Marquette and Depaul beats ND. - If those things happened and Rutgers beat St. John's, they'd be #12. - If those things happen and St. John's beat Rutgers, but Depaul beat Cuse, Prov would be #10. - If those things happen and St. John's beat Rutgers, but Cuse beat Depaul, Prov would be #11.
- Finally, there's ND. - If ND beats to Depaul, they're in. (see seeding scenario below) - If ND loses to Depaul, the only way they get in is if Depaul had already lost to Syracuse, Marquette beats Providence, and Rutgers beats St. John's (ND would win a 4-way tiebreak with St. John's, Prov, and Depaul) - ND is #11 (and likely vs. Marquette) if they beat Depaul and St. John's beats Rutgers. - ND is #12 (and likely vs. Pitt) if they beat Depaul and Rutgers beats St. John's OR the 4-way tiebreak from above happens (ND loses to Depaul, Depaul had already lost to Syracuse, Marquette beats Providence, and Rutgers beats St. John's)
What this basically means with 7 games left and my predictions (dare I say, conventional wisdom winners)... Cuse over Depaul Pitt over SH Uconn over Louisville Gtown over USF WV over Cincy Marq over Providence Nova over Cuse (and then the Rutgers-St. John's unpickable game)
1. Uconn 2. Nova 3. WV 4. Gtown 5. Pitt 6. Marquette 7. SH 8. Cuse 9. Cincy
If St. John's wins: 10. St. John's 11. ND 12. Louisville
If Rutgers wins: 10. Rutgers 11. Louisville 12. ND
Again, don't kill the messenger if you don't like the message.
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HoyaFanNY
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Never throw to the venus on a spider 3 Y banana!
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Mar 2, 2006 7:05:18 GMT -5
god bless louisville!!!! of course it means nothing if we lay an egg saturday. just win baby!!
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Mar 2, 2006 7:49:05 GMT -5
Thanks Boston. You've definitely added some interest to the Rutgers/St. John's game. Our first true win or go home game of the year.
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Ro
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Post by Ro on Mar 2, 2006 8:22:20 GMT -5
Bostonhoya, I applaud all of the effort you put into your post. You seem to be very passionate about the team...so i must ask why you would prefer to have the 5 seed...
Why in the world would you not prefer a first round bye? Since the Championship expanded to have more than 8 teams in it, NO TEAM has EVER won the Big East Championship after playing on the first day of the tourney.
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cincyhoya
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Post by cincyhoya on Mar 2, 2006 9:06:21 GMT -5
Wow - I got a major brain cramp from that... I'll have to try that one agin this afternoon after I'm fully awake..
Thanks, though.. I think that sorts clears things up... Question is after last night, where's the BE on the bubble?
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Post by stafford72 on Mar 2, 2006 9:17:47 GMT -5
Very thorough analysis. The most likely scenario is that St. Johns beats Rutgers and thee is a 4-way tie at 6-10 among Rutgers, St. Johns, Louisville, and Notre Dame. The mini conference which results has the following:
St. Johns 3-0 ND 1-1 Louisville
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njcoach
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Post by njcoach on Mar 2, 2006 9:23:24 GMT -5
1. Uconn 2. Nova 3. WV 4. Gtown 5. Pitt 6. Marquette 7. SH 8. Cuse 9. Cincy If St. John's wins: 10. St. John's 11. ND 12. Louisville If Rutgers wins: 10. Rutgers 11. Louisville 12. ND Again, don't kill the messenger if you don't like the message. So the Hoyas likely play the winner of Pitt-Luvull or Pitt-Irish? That's after earning a bye? What a brutal conference.
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Post by stafford72 on Mar 2, 2006 9:29:38 GMT -5
Very thorough analysis. The most likely scenario is that St. Johns beats Rutgers and there is a 4-way tie at 6-10 among Rutgers, St. Johns, Louisville, and Notre Dame. The mini conference which results has the following:
St. Johns 3-0 (10) ND 1-1 (11) Louisville 1-2 (12) Rutgers 1-3 (13)
If this comes to pass, we play the winner of the Pitt-Louisville game.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 2, 2006 9:55:04 GMT -5
Having teams like Louisville and ND at the bottom of the tournament seedings is EXACTLY why the bye is important.
Hopefully we can win on Saturday. If we do, Pitt and Marquette will have tough battles on their hands & with any luck, they might get knocked out early. Don't get me wrong. ND scares me just like they do everyone else, I've said so for a while, but all things considered, I'd rather play them than Pitt in our first game at MSG.
Are we sure about the top seeding? I thought that Nova got the #1 if they win out. Thinking selfishly only, but (again, hoping we win on Saturday - knock, knock) I'd rather be matched up against Nova in the semis than UConn. Even though revenge for last year would be nice, I think we have a better chance at advancing to the finals if we draw the Cats in the 1-4 semifinal Friday.
Oh well. First things first. TCB on Saturday Hoyas!
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 2, 2006 10:52:51 GMT -5
I think if both UConn and Nova win out, UConn gets the 1-seed.
(1) Head to head between the two teams is a tie. (2) Against WVU, which is the next best team in the standings, UConn is 1-0, Nova is 0-1.
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Post by GULaw on Mar 2, 2006 10:53:18 GMT -5
Regarding the #1 seed, because UConn and Villanova split their two games, you start comparing their record against the next team in the BE standings. Since UConn beat WVU, and Villanova lost to WVU, UConn gets the top seed if they win out.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 2, 2006 10:59:56 GMT -5
I never said I was a smart man.
Grazie.
Bring on USF! Then, bring on.....uh, someone! Then, bring on the U-Convicts!
And so on, and so forth, and such like....
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Post by bostonhoya05 on Mar 2, 2006 11:31:49 GMT -5
Bostonhoya, I applaud all of the effort you put into your post. You seem to be very passionate about the team...so i must ask why you would prefer to have the 5 seed... Why in the world would you not prefer a first round bye? Since the Championship expanded to have more than 8 teams in it, NO TEAM has EVER won the Big East Championship after playing on the first day of the tourney. While I hate for anyone to question my love for the team, that's a fair question. I guess my feeling - and tell if this is being sacreligious - is that this team just isn't ready to win the BET, so I don't think the "Can't win 4 games in 4 days" argument is pertinent. I just don't see us doing a Uconn-Nova or Uconn-WV combo at this stage, whether it's after a week's rest or not. I preferred the "Beat #12 then Beat Marquette" route then take your chances with Uconn. Beating Uconn's going to take a significant performance and I'm not sure it matters THAT much whether it's after we've already played one or two games. Not that Marquette is a walkover but I think they're an easier game than Pitt (who we would be trying to beat for the 3rd time in a row) and it would have been Marquette's first BET game ever. Finally, the #12 game (barring us laying an egg) would have been a W and I don't want to see us go to NY and get shutout - I think it's important to go to the NCAA Tournament with a postseason win under your belt. Having said that, maybe I'm giving Pitt too much credit and I suppose if we get by them, we will indeed be better off in a Uconn matchup than before. Maybe Pitt gets beat and we play the #12. Anyway, sorry that my strategic considerations seem even moderately anti-Hoya - that's far from what I am. Call it pessimism from being part of the Class of 2005... first in class in 30 years to not see an NCAA Tournament... Class of 4 overtimes against ND, 6 men on the floor against Seton Hall, and 3 years of Esh... Class of phantom fouls against Pitt, Braswell plays to nowhere at game's end, and the great transfer exodus of Summer 2003... Class of the 2005 late-season collapse, denying the NIT in 2002, and losing to ST. JOHN'S in the NIT final a year later... Class of the Wesley Wilson meltdown, the Gerald Riley fight, the Mike Sweetney NBA departure, and outplaying Syracuse for 36 minutes in 2003 and watching them win the NCAA Title 6 weeks later............... JT III may be here now and this may be a different team, but the scars from year's past remind me to proceed cautiously - hopefully one day I'll shake this - perhaps with a BET Semifinal win against the mighty Huskies. Hoya Saxa.
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Post by georgetowngrad05 on Mar 2, 2006 11:35:41 GMT -5
dammit Boston, I had successfully removed those from my memory! Now I will have to spend countless hours watching the Duke DVD to remind myself that glory days are here again.
I think we can take Pitt, especially with Roy's new found aggressiveness in the paint. We would present a better matchup down low than the previous game.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 2, 2006 11:36:23 GMT -5
Boston - understand your logic, but the bye is also nice because there is a very good that #12 seed is Notre Dame.
Playing ND right now is a no-win proposition. Other people feel the same about Louisville (I'm not as impressed). However, if you face those teams after they beat Pitt, they are tired and a more impressive opponent at the same time.
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Post by jook97 on Mar 2, 2006 12:06:22 GMT -5
I am with you, Boston, but the NCAA tournament is the bag now, and with a win over USF, say it with me, we finish in #4 place in the Big East ! Which is just amazing. As far as I am concerned, the BET is gravy. We all know that these tournaments are for advertising and revenue. Asking the best teams to bang against each other for 3-4 straight days right before the NCAA tournament is ridiculous. If we win it all, awesome; if we lose to Pitt, I aint crying. I was at GU when the Iverson team lost to the Ray Allen team in the BET final. It sucked, but guess who went further in the NCAAs that year ? We did.
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YB
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Post by YB on Mar 2, 2006 12:12:53 GMT -5
Let's beat USF and have everything else take care of itself!
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