Our Lack of Depth Is a Myth

[Locker]

Here's how I know this: the Hoyas do not have a single player in the TOP 30 in the Big East in minutes played per game.

(Go to www.midmajority.com and sort Big East individual statistics by minutes-per-game to see for yourself.)

To put that in perspective, the only other Big East team that can say that is UConn.

The analytical error people make in looking at our depth is to count the number of players in our rotation rather than the number of minutes contributed by the bench. Not that many teams have a guy like DJ averaging 27 minutes a game as the 6th man.

If Owens were split into two guys averaging 14 and 13 minutes a game, we'd have a 9 man rotation and no one would be worried. But that wouldn't make us any deeper.

[SirSaxa]

An interesting way to look at the issue.
But it doesn't account for possible foul trouble, injuries, struggling players, match-up problems or even fatigue... especially if one wished to implement a more aggressive pressing defense, for example.

[ephoya04]

I disagree with you that 1 player playing 27 min creates the same depth as 2 players playing 14 and 13 min respectively. If that 1 player turns an ankle or fouls out or has a bad night or doesn't match up defensively, then you'd clearly rather have 2 different people who can give you 2 different looks

[SirSaxa]

Barker Davis has another excellent and insightful analysis on this exact issue in today's paper -- see link below and in the Thread on pre-game articles.

Amazingly, he got interviews with both Sapp and Egerson. It is quite clear they have bought into JT3's system and philosophy. Barker also talks about next year's front line with the addition of Ewing, Macklin and SUmmers and Egerson acknowledges he'll need to be more of a guard. Barker is amazing. No one covers GU hoops like him. As JT3 builds the program, Barker's access and historical perspective will become more and more valuable.

www.washtimes.com/sports/20060209-121023-3101r.htm

[Locker]

ephoya04 said:

I disagree with you that 1 player playing 27 min creates the same depth as 2 players playing 14 and 13 min respectively. If that 1 player turns an ankle or fouls out or has a bad night or doesn't match up defensively, then you'd clearly rather have 2 different people who can give you 2 different looks

If what you are concerned about is our 5 starters getting fatigued (either in the course of a single game or over a long season), then whether the bench minutes come from one guy or many doesn't matter at all.

I concede that if one of our top 6 guys gets hurt or forgets how to play [furiously knocking on wood], then we'll be in some trouble. But until that point, people should not stress out about the fatigue issue. None of our starters plays over 32 minutes a game.

[SFHoya99]

Our "fatigue" depth is not so bad.

Our "injury" depth is pretty awful, especially if a big man got hurt.

[irishhoya]

While an injury or foul trouble may be a problem (knock on wood), the way we slow down the game takes fatigue out of the question. We're not the Hoyas of old who used to run up and down the court. We don't average enough possesions per game for fatigue to really become an issue.

[SirSaxa]

irishhoya said:

While an injury or foul trouble may be a problem (knock on wood), the way we slow down the game takes fatigue out of the question. We're not the Hoyas of old who used to run up and down the court. We don't average enough possesions per game for fatigue to really become an issue.

When you play three days in a row at the BET.... fatigue will definitely become an issue.

[Hoya50]

the fatigue factor is a myth. duke is probably the top pressing team in the country and we know how the hoyas handled that game.

this foul trouble/injury depth is not a myth. if bowman goes out, owens steps in. then what? there's been no consistent play from the bench. even owens has been erratic.

it'll be weird next season to go from little depth to tremendous depth.

[Locker]

sirsaxa said:

When you play three days in a row at the BET.... fatigue will definitely become an issue.

Yes, but less of an issue for us than for most other Big East teams. Our solid depth means we simply don't have to rely on a Chris Quinn playing 40 minutes a game, a Kevin Pittsnogle or Quincy Douby playing 37 minutes a game, a Gerry McNamara playing 35 minutes a game, a Randy Foye playing 34 minutes a game, or a Steve Novak playing 33 minutes a game. Let those teams worry about BET fatigue.

[Grandpa]

hoya50 said:

it'll be weird next season to go from little depth to tremendous depth.

There would definitely appear to be some good depth, but unfortunately I have concerns about the lack of experience. While you can definitely look to the fact that 50% of our primary 6-man rotation will be back with Jeff, Jon, and Roy, there will be a lot of minutes that will be absorbed by guys that are either new to the system or haven't seen all that much time this year. I have faith that JT III will find a way to make it work, but I think this team could have a little bit of growing pains next year, at least in the early part of the season. But hey, I'm having way too much fun watching the team this year to think too much about that - we can save that for the off-season!

[CO_Hoya]

hoya50 said:

it'll be weird next season to go from little depth to tremendous depth.

I wonder about that. We'll be loaded up front, but what about ball-handlers and outside shooters (I think the delineation of players into guards and forwards is unimportant in our system)?

We're losing 2 great shooters (Cook and Owens) who can really neutralize zone defenses. And Cook was able to destroy the Duke trap with his cross-over to split double teams. Bowman and Owens also are usually as good or better dribblers than the player that matches up to them.

Sapp looks to be a lousy outside shooter (15% (4-26) 3-pt), and Egerson doesn't have a large enough sample size (4-10 3's) to say. I'd also be surprised if Rivers gets much run barring injuries, based on JTIII's usage pattern so far.

To me, it looks like The Dagger (2-3 3's) will be a big key to next year's team, and our outside shooting depth will limited.

[Deleted]

Yeah, I'm actually a little WORRIED about depth next year.

I'm not too worried about losing Brandon (although he's been solid this season). I wish we could still have him, but I think the combination of PEJR/Summers should work out nicely. Sure, they are both relatively inexperienced, but considering the continuing development of Jeff, Jon and Roy, plus the assumed improvement of Spann, Thornton and Sapp, I like III's chances at making up for the loss of Brandon.

Losing Owens is a bit more problematic. A very versatile, do-it-all 6th man is hard to come by. Who can step in for him? Crawford? Spann? Josh? There are tons of options but none are proven in the long haul.

Losing Cook is, in my opinion, the biggest loss. And I never thought I would have said that before the season. The already-on-the-roster option is Thornton. But we haven't seen enough of him to know if he can handle the competition Cook has seen. Again, Crawford, Egerson and Rivers will vie for time, but like with people filling in for Owens, none are proven.

I guess what I'm getting at is that we're losing two known entities in Owens and Cook, and a pretty well known one in BB. Only BB, again in my opinion, is being replaced by an equal amount of potential.

That said, I don't think any of us - even those of us who watched Kenner games - could have predicted someone like Wallace's improvement from last year. Let's hope a few guys experience the same growth this summer!!

[DoubleOhHoya]

If you assume the four new recruits are capable of stepping into the rotation right away, our debt with be fine in terms of bodies. Front Court will be fine. Back court, someone's got to step up. Sapp and Wallace will probably start, with Rivers, Egerson, Thorton and the gang getting PT. If any one of those guys can give us good minutes off the bench, we're fine.

[njcoach]

buffalohoya said:

I guess what I'm getting at is that we're losing two known entities in Owens and Cook, and a pretty well known one in BB. Only BB, again in my opinion, is being replaced by an equal amount of potential.

Well that's college basketball isn't it? Every program has to face the same predicament eventually. Whether or not we like them, clubs like Duke, CT, KY, NC, Cuse, and some others deserve some respect for their ability to generally remain in the national mix year after year.

Georgetown started 3 frosh last year and began this wonderful turnaround. Not to worry.

[daytonahoya31]

Is it me, or does Dagger seem to have a good chance at getting major pt next season, if not starting? From what I've seen, if he can cut down on his turnovers, he can be a major asset.
He's a better shooter than Sapp or Luv, he can get to the basket and he has gumption.
I mean, when he gets out there onto the court, he's always looking to make something happen.
That's what you want out of your sixth men.

[SFHoya99]

When we're discussing depth next year, I think we're confusing two issues:

1. How will we replace the starter's production, which is not depth
2. Depth

What's our depth this year? In my mind, we have:

1 Starter Level Bench Player (in our case, situational) (DJ)
1 Typical Sub (not as good as starter, but good enough to keep starters around 30 min) (Sapp)
1 Situational Sub (good, but plays more erratically) (Tyler/Marc)
1 Emergency Sub (AKD)

Next Year, there is certainly uncertainty, but I think there is a good chance of a deeper team, and not just because of the freshmen.

Assuming a starting lineup of Jon, Jesse, Pat, Jeff and Roy:

1 Typical Post Sub (Macklin) - Macklin may not have a polished offensive game, but he can rebound and Block Shots. Even if a post player goes down, we have plenty of pseudoposts in Pat and DaJuan. If Brandon could play PF, so can they.

1 Typical Wing Sub - Between Marc, Tyler, Tay and DaJuan, I guaranteed one player plays at the Jesse level next year.

1 Typical Guard Sub - Between Marc, Tyler, Josh and Jeremiah, I guarantee one player plays at the Jesse level next year. Remember, Jesse can slide to the one - we don't need a backup point because in this scenario, he'll be starting.

My only concern with DEPTH is if Jon or Jesse goes down, we'll have to have Josh or Jeremiah be ready to step up. I think they will be.

Now, Buff, I completely understand trying to replace starter contributions, so we might be worse, yet deeper.

[Deleted]

Having followed JT3 before he came to Georgetown, I can tell you that dramatic improvements in performance is the rule, not the exceptionl. One of the recommendations he is likely to give his players over the summer is to "shoot 3's until your arm falls off." That is a direct quote from one of his players at princeton.

Here is a prediction from me for next year-Roy will start knocking down 3's. After all, he is an excellent foul shooter and has a nice touch. It follows that he can develop a 3. In the Princeton offense, you want to have a center who can shoot 3's. It was Green's ability to shoot the 3's that brought Gray out from under the basket.

I can assure you that next year Sapp, Spann and Edgerson will be vastly improved. Furthermore, I can't wait to see Ewing with a year of the "system" under his belt.

[HoyasSkins]

Question: Alot of people seem to talk about foul trouble, but have any Hoyas EVER fouled out in the JT3 era?

[TBird41]

russ932 said:

Question: Alot of people seem to talk about foul trouble, but have any Hoyas EVER fouled out in the JT3 era?

Jeff fouled out against Cuse last year with 4:44 left in regulation (can't speak as to other games). That game Bowman and Ashanti both had 4 fouls with 4 min left in the game.

And it's not just about fouling out. If someone picks up their 4th early in the 2nd half, then you need someone who can give them some bench time to protect them.