Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
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Post by Big Dog on Jan 30, 2006 15:41:48 GMT -5
Lost in the giddiness accompanying our recent winning streak and run up the polls is the question whether this team's potential will be ultimately limited by its reliance almost entirely on six players. There are a couple of reasons to be concerned:
1. Hitting the wall - I'm firmly committed to the belief that our freshmen ran out of gas last season around the time of the SJU game and it ultimately cost us an NCAA bid. Some of the vets picked up the slack in the BET and NIT, but it was too late. I don't believe that something along those lines will occur again, but it is quite possible that at some point either down the stretch, during the grueling BET schedule, or during the intensity of the NCAAs that the major minutes played our key contributors will catch up with us.
2. Fouls - We have yet to really have a game in which a couple of guys get into serious early foul trouble. When you rely primarily on six players, and say two of the Green/Hibbert/Bowman trio pick up a number of early fouls, where do we turn? It seems to me inevitable that at some point in a season, early foul trouble costs us a game. Such a situation becomes even more likely with a team that's as shallow as we are. Should we be worried about this?
Alternatively, there's enough time left in the season for somebody else to step up and demand more playing time. Sapp would be the most obvious candidate to improve and get more time because he gets the longest look right now, but there are others. Is this a realistic possibility?
I'm not trying to be a downer and am not sure if I'm concerned about any of these things just mentioned. But I was hoping for some perspective from others of you out there.
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Jan 30, 2006 15:45:41 GMT -5
I was worried about this too, but I just checked it out and no one on the team averages more than 31 minutes a game (Green). That's not too bad at all.
Plus, we don't press and in general slow things down a little. I'm not too worried. Plus, Owens is more like a starter anyway.
I personally believe that playing fewer guys is much better. I always hated the "line changes" of past regimes. If you only have 6 really good players then let them play all the minutes.
Foul trouble is the thing that truly scares me in big games...especially Green...he is the glue and the key to the team. If he gets 2 we are in trouble...
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 30, 2006 15:49:23 GMT -5
1. I think getting tired down the stretch is a real concern.
However, some mitigating factors:
- I believe every starter from last year is playing less minutes aside from Roy. Even Jeff is playing two less minutes.
- The player that I think hit the wall the most, Jon, bulked up quite a bit and has already been much more consistent.
2. Fouls. Absolutely a concern, especially in the low post.
Some mitigating points:
- On the guard situation, Sapp has gotten good minutes and has proven he won't hurt us. Jon and Ashanti have been in foul trouble this year and Jessie has filled in as well or better than Ray Reed next year.
- If Roy or Jeff gets in trouble, DJ has proven consistent enough this year to go small. If two or more players get in foul trouble, we definitely have issues.
3. My real concern is injuries. We have a great setup now with a C, a C/PF, a PF/SF, a SF/SG, a SG/PG and a PG all starter quality. It allows us to swing the spectrum of matchups. If someone gets hurt, we lose that flexibility to play big or small -- we'll have to be one.
Do we beat Duke if we have to go big? Do we beat ND if we have to go small?
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,373
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Post by prhoya on Jan 30, 2006 15:52:19 GMT -5
What depth problem? IMO, we're deeper this year than last year, with more experience and in a better general physical condition (lesson learned from last year and a lot of work during the off-season).
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Post by bawlmerhoya on Jan 30, 2006 15:53:25 GMT -5
We have no sub for Green. This was a big problem last year.
AKD does a decent job defending the post and filling in for Roy.
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hoyatables
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,604
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Post by hoyatables on Jan 30, 2006 15:54:22 GMT -5
Edgerson has shown potential in his limited time on the court. He's usually the next guy in after Sapp, and has had PT in just about every game. He's also hit a few shots, and definitely seems to have a good combo of strength and speed.
I think we need to continue to get "the Edge" and Sapp in as many games as possible, and in actually important game situations, so that when we need to rely on them in an early foul situation, we can hope they aren't doe-eyed. And I think that is exactly what JTIII has been doing, so I am not quite *as* worried, though I think you make a very good point.
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Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
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Post by Locker on Jan 30, 2006 15:55:29 GMT -5
It helps a little on #1 and a lot on #2 that we play at such a slow pace (323rd out of 334 teams per Pomeroy).
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Jan 30, 2006 15:56:40 GMT -5
Edge is looking much better and confident. The only guy that we can't replace is Green. If anyone else gets in foul trouble or hurt I feel like we can adapt.
Green is the heart and soul both offensively and more importantly defensively.
Did anyone else notice last game how he got totally stuffed by Hicks on one end...and then came back to the other end two plays later and gave it right back on a block from behind in the fast break! That sequence tells you everything you need to know about our MVP...
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Post by ][-][ 0 `/ /-\ 5 on Jan 30, 2006 15:58:07 GMT -5
Edgerson has shown potential in his limited time on the court. He's usually the next guy in after Sapp, and has had PT in just about every game. He's also hit a few shots, and definitely seems to have a good combo of strength and speed. I think we need to continue to get "the Edge" and Sapp in as many games as possible, and in actually important game situations, so that when we need to rely on them in an early foul situation, we can hope they aren't doe-eyed. And I think that is exactly what JTIII has been doing, so I am not quite *as* worried, though I think you make a very good point. Hate to be a nitpicker but its Egerson, pronounced Egg-erson(so the edge would not fit), and his nickname is luv
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 30, 2006 16:07:51 GMT -5
I look at our rotation as 7 going on 8 players. Sapp has played in every game I have watched and he gets pretty good minutes. It appears Egerson is also moving up JT3's playing list. Kilkenny is always there if we do fall into foul trouble in the frontcourt, but we really manage ourselves pretty well. The only players I consistently worry about with regard to fouls are Cook and Wallace. We have Sapp to back them up and even Owens can play a guard spot if he wasn't already.
I think it is important to remember that we play a deliberate style of offense and our guys are pretty disciplined on defense. Our style does not demand more than 7 but I think by the time the BET rolls around, Egerson will be the 8th guy to get 10 minutes a game when needed. I really took notice that JT3 took out Egerson and Sapp at the end of the Cincy game, you can see they are diferentiated from the deeper bench.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Jan 30, 2006 16:43:25 GMT -5
dont forget AKD ya'll - even though he got posterized at the Garden against SJU and is limited offensively, he is a serviceable guy to eat minutes if Green/Hibbs are in foul trouble. but if Green gets two early, that could be problematic regardless because AKD cannot run the offense nearly as smoothly as my man JG - but who could???
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the_way
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
The Illest
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Post by the_way on Jan 30, 2006 16:47:38 GMT -5
There is no depth problem this year. We have basically 6 starters, where 4 can play multiple positions ( Cook -PG or SG, Green - PF or C, Bowman - PF or SF, Owens - SG or SF). Plus we get solid minutes from the freshman Eggy and Sapp. Both made some great plays in that Duke game. And we have 2 solid role players we can call on in an Emergency, that won't hurt you (Kilkenny-Diaw and Crawford).
Our depth didn't hurt us last year. Our lack of experience did. We were learning how to win last year, and weren't use to stepping up in crunch time during the final half of the season. It was a learning experience.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 30, 2006 17:44:17 GMT -5
I'm not worried about depth. When freshmen play 30+ minutes, they hit a wall because the season is longer and tougher than high school.
But none of the main six are freshmen and as pointed out previously, none play more than 31mpg. Plus Sapp gives us 15-17 and Egerson chips in 8.
Put it this way, the difference between our minutes distribution and UNC's 8-man rotation last year is our 8th guy gets 8mpg and their 8th guy got 16mpg. So our first 7 play about an extra minute. Not a problem.
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hoyatables
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,604
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Post by hoyatables on Jan 30, 2006 18:26:40 GMT -5
Hate to be a nitpicker but its Egerson, pronounced Egg-erson(so the edge would not fit), and his nickname is luv D'oh! Thanks for the correction. Luv works fine, though I really liked "the Edge." Shortest life for a nickname ever! We could call him "Egg," however.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 30, 2006 19:42:14 GMT -5
1. Running out of gas. I think this is a concern all teams face, but (as SF pointed out in his mitigating factors section) everybody's getting less PT, Jon is buffer, the team is older / more experienced, and III stressed conditioning really hard over the summer in reaction to our 0-5 finish. Also - and this might be tangential conjecture - we're hitting shots so much better as a team, we're not expending as much energy trying for second- and third-try points.
2. Fouls. Hard to argue against us being in trouble when Green has 2+, and even tougher to argue against us being in big trouble if Green/Bowman, Green/Roy, or Green/Cook have a couple. I would hate to have to rely on it, but we have 3 guys shooting near 50% from the 3, and Bowman/Wallace have improved their ability to drive the lane and find the backdoor, so we could maybe gut it out if we had to.
3. Egerson. Where does "luv" come from? It's always easier to accept somebody's nickname if you know the context. I like "the Edge", too, 'tables, but some nicknames die young. Remember "Train", "Regina" (ok, that's a real name, but whatever), and "Stump"? I digress ... either way, I liked what I saw on Saturday and look forward to watching him develop into a solid role player.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2006 20:04:14 GMT -5
No worries here about running out of gas.
How many teams have won national titles with short benches? I'm not saying that's what we Hoya fans should expect, but it has been done. And as has been pointed out, everyone is playing less minutes per game than last season, and the people we need to sub in dire situations (AKD, Egerson, Sapp) have proven they can handle the load (if only for a few minutes).
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Jan 30, 2006 20:28:59 GMT -5
Along with most everyone else, I think our depth problem (at guard especially) will most likely present itself due to our getting in foul trouble at some point. But this thread got me thinking: great job by both Coach and our players for staying OUT of foul trouble this year. I'm sure someone out there will prove me wrong (this is a chat board after all) but the ND game was the only game I remember losing a key player due to fouls, and that game was 8 days long.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Jan 30, 2006 20:29:57 GMT -5
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,440
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Post by lichoya68 on Jan 30, 2006 20:33:44 GMT -5
i do agree that if one of our top six is injured adn out ... were kinda like nailed or screwed ...so we aint got depth for that... but what the heck go lori michaels .... keep em healthy..... and the new floor is better than the fifty year old one....... which they thought casued alot of injuries ... go hoop club ..... go hoyas ..... beat demons back..........let god continue to be on our side and keep em all healthy.. ;D ;D ;D
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Post by RockawayHoya on Jan 30, 2006 20:41:35 GMT -5
This team is more physically mature and better conditioned than last year's team. It's also deeper (Sapp, Egerson). Hitting a wall should not be a problem.
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