Yom Kippur War, Part 2

[SSHoya]

Massive intel failure, both Israeli and US.
50th Anniversaey and no heightened alert in Israel? Complacency set in despite Netanyahu's tough talk?

Did Hamas/Iran perceive Israeli weakness because of Netanyahu's efforts to weaken the Israeli justice system with some IDF reservists publicly stating they wouldn't serve if Netanyahu was successful in his efforts?

[DanMcQ]

[DanMcQ]

[DanMcQ]

[SSHoya]

But this Hamas victory might prove Pyrrhic. In fact, Hamas itself might have been surprised by the extent of its initial success. The trauma in Israel today should give pause to those thinking that Israel will simply acquiesce to a short tit for tat. As bad as things have been in Gaza in the past two decades—and they have been terrible—the coming weeks could prove even worse.

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-hamas-attacks/675579/

[SSHoya]

MAGA GOP is the "Blame America First" cult.

This should, but likely will not, inject some sobriety into the Republican Party, which has held up U.S. military promotions and confirmations and State Department postings; brought the House to a state of collapse under the weight of MAGA hysteria; carried water for Russia (an ally of Iran); and generally reminded us that adults are needed in government.

Here in the United States, I have less patience than usual (which is often none) for inane right-wing rhetoric in the United States. No, there were no humanitarian funds released to Iran that might have put money in the mullahs’ pockets to be spent on Hamas. No, the Biden administration did not invite any of this. Republicans used to denounce the urge to “blame America first” for monstrous evil perpetrated by others. No more.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-americans/

[hoyajinx]

Oct 9, 2023 9:20:38 GMT -5 SSHoya said:

MAGA GOP is the "Blame America First" cult.

This should, but likely will not, inject some sobriety into the Republican Party, which has held up U.S. military promotions and confirmations and State Department postings; brought the House to a state of collapse under the weight of MAGA hysteria; carried water for Russia (an ally of Iran); and generally reminded us that adults are needed in government.

Here in the United States, I have less patience than usual (which is often none) for inane right-wing rhetoric in the United States. No, there were no humanitarian funds released to Iran that might have put money in the mullahs’ pockets to be spent on Hamas. No, the Biden administration did not invite any of this. Republicans used to denounce the urge to “blame America first” for monstrous evil perpetrated by others. No more.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-americans/

The alacrity with which Republicans blamed Biden for the attack is absolutely ghoulish. It’s as if Republicans couldn’t be happier that it happened. Just dishonest, repugnant people from top to bottom.

[hoyarooter]

Oct 9, 2023 7:53:44 GMT -5 SSHoya said:

But this Hamas victory might prove Pyrrhic. In fact, Hamas itself might have been surprised by the extent of its initial success. The trauma in Israel today should give pause to those thinking that Israel will simply acquiesce to a short tit for tat. As bad as things have been in Gaza in the past two decades—and they have been terrible—the coming weeks could prove even worse.

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-hamas-attacks/675579/

I think this is almost certainly true. Hamas thinks it can control Israel's response by taking hostages. They are wrong.

[SSHoya]

It's going to get really bad and bloody before this reaches any type of resolution.

Let’s start with the obvious: The response has to change the landscape meaningfully. No government of Israel can go back to the Israeli electorate with many hundreds of Israelis dead without being able to say that it made a repeat incident dramatically less likely. This would be true of any Israeli government, but it’s particularly true of a government of the right and far right who speak in the language of security. Having failed to prevent this massacre, Netanyahu cannot afford to leave Israel vulnerable to Hamas in the future.

Since 2005, when Israel ceased occupying Gaza, there has been a recurring cycle of attacks from Gaza leading to Israeli operations both against and within Gaza to erode Hamas’s capacity and punish its leadership. These operations have varied in size and length and in lethality. But they have all had in common that they ended with Hamas still running the show in Gaza and able to rebuild.

Another operation of this type, which leaves a status quo of Hamas ruling Gaza with a huge amount of weaponry is almost certainly not what Israel intends this time. The nature of this attack is such that Israel cannot allow Hamas to live to fight another day.

www.lawfaremedia.org/article/initial-thoughts-on-hamas-s-war

[SSHoya]

Kind of amazing that tough talking Bibi and his right wing Administration so miscalculated. Complacency and failure of imagination compounded by hubris.

Israel massed troops in the West Bank. Then Hamas attacked from Gaza.

[W]hen hundreds of Palestinian militants stormed through and soared over Israel’s multibillion-dollar border fence — on bulldozers, paragliders and on foot — Netanyahu’s Gaza doctrine, treating Palestinian militancy as a threat that could be contained, was shattered in an instant.

Analysts also point to a failure in political leadership. Netanyahu, they contend, allowed military preparedness to erode alongside Palestinian militant escalation as he pursued a contentious plan to weaken Israel’s judiciary — setting off months of furious protests that delighted the country’s adversaries.

The IDF issued rare public statements in recent months, warning that military deterrence was deteriorating. Netanyahu and radical members of his cabinet derided the officials as part of the protest movement, and the protesters as “anarchists,” asserting that the status quo with the Palestinians would hold.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-attack-gaza-intelligence/

[SSHoya]

From the left wing Haaretz. Sounds like it could happen here if the American people are dumb enough to give Mango another opportunity to destroy the country.

The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu. The prime minister, who has prided himself on his vast political experience and irreplaceable wisdom in security matters, completely failed to identify the dangers he was consciously leading Israel into when establishing a government of annexation and dispossession, when appointing Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to key positions, while embracing a foreign policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians.

Netanyahu will certainly try to evade his responsibility and cast the blame on the heads of the army, Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet security service who, like their predecessors on the eve of the Yom Kippur War, saw a low probability of war with their preparations for a Hamas attack proving flawed.

Above all, the danger looming over Israel in recent years has been fully realized. A prime minister indicted in three corruption cases cannot look after state affairs, as national interests will necessarily be subordinate to extricating him from a possible conviction and jail time.



www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000?v=1696934391177

[DanMcQ]

[SSHoya]

Seems likely that Egypt is doing so and it is necessary for Israel to deny it. In any event, I sure hope Egypt is doing this.

During my time as the Force Counsel for the peacekeeping force in the Sinai, there was a well-established liasion relationship (40+ years) between the Egyptian Army and the IDF. In fact, we provided at our cost cellphones for their use and acted as the interlocutor to foster the comms. Egypt also brokered the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in May of this year. It is Egypt's interest to do so since it has closed the Rafah border crossing and it doesn't want to deal with an influx of Gazan refugees. Furthermore, the Administration and Congress have put a hold on a portion of the military assistance to Egypt because of its human rights record. Any Egyptian assistance in hostage release and/or ceasefire talks provides a leverage point for Egypt to receive US assistance.

Despite media reports about Egypt negotiating with Hamas on Israel’s behalf, an Israeli official tells The Times of Israel that the government “does not know of any such conversation and is not conducting any negotiations.”

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-denies-it-is-conducting-hostage-negotiations-via-egypt/

The new top U.S. senator on foreign relations Tuesday blocked some $235 million in military aid to Egypt over human rights concerns, after his predecessor was indicted in a scandal that touched on ties with Cairo.

Ben Cardin, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he told Secretary of State Antony Blinken that his hold on funds "will remain until specific human rights progress is made."

The State Department last month approved $1.215 billion in military aid to Egypt for the coming year, its latest major package for Cairo despite Biden's calls to emphasize human rights.

Cardin's action relates to $235 million that Congress linked to human rights. Blinken did not certify that Egypt met the conditions, but he waived the consequent restrictions on aid, citing U.S. national security interests.

Blinken already withheld a separate $85 million that was linked specifically to progress on releasing political prisoners.

www.voanews.com/a/senator-blocks-egypt-military-aid-over-rights/7296076.html

[SSHoya]

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Tuesday that the escalation in Gaza was "highly dangerous" and that Egypt was pursuing a negotiated solution to the violence with regional and international partners.

Egypt would not allow the issue to be settled at the expense of others, Sisi said in comments reported by state news agency MENA, an apparent reference to the risk that Palestinians could be pushed into Sinai.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bombardments-hit-area-gaza-sinai-border-crossing-gaza-officials-2023-10-10/

[SSHoya]

[DanMcQ]

[SSHoya]

This must really burn Mango's cork. But he's been PO'ed and throwing a tantrum since Bibi congratulated Biden on his 2020 election victory.

A billboard in support of US President Joe Biden seen in Israel, October 11, 2023

m.jpost.com/international/article-767782

[DanMcQ]

[SSHoya]

President Biden has appointed David Satterfield to be an envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues, according to a statement from national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Ambassador Sattterfield interviewed and hired me as the Treaty Counsel when he was the Director General of the peacekeeping force in the Sinai from 2009-2017. Knows both the Egyptian and Israeli sides as we had a longstanding liaison relationships and considered a trusted interlocutor.

IMHO, Satterfield's first order of business must be to persuade Egypt to open up the Rafah border crossing to allow aid to flow in and allow, at minimum, third party nationals to transit to Egypt. Not likely that Egypt would allow Gazan refugees to enter Egypt.

www.state.gov/appointment-of-david-satterfield-as-special-envoy-for-middle-east-humanitarian-issues/

[SSHoya]

Oct 15, 2023 12:43:48 GMT -5 SSHoya said:

President Biden has appointed David Satterfield to be an envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues, according to a statement from national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Ambassador Sattterfield interviewed and hired me as the Treaty Counsel when he was the Director General of the peacekeeping force in the Sinai from 2009-2017. Knows both the Egyptian and Israeli sides as we had a longstanding liaison relationships and considered a trusted interlocutor.

IMHO, Satterfield's first order of business must be to persuade Egypt to open up the Rafah border crossing to allow aid to flow in and allow, at minimum, third party nationals to transit to Egypt. Not likely that Egypt would allow Gazan refugees to enter Egypt.

www.state.gov/appointment-of-david-satterfield-as-special-envoy-for-middle-east-humanitarian-issues/

Looks like my old boss did it - but really should wait until the aid actually crosses at Rafah and reaches the intended recipients and third-party nationals are allowed an exit from Gaza before declaring any type of minor victory in this horrific disaster.

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany — President Biden during a refueling stop here on his flight back from Israel said Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi had agreed to open the Rafah crossing to allow 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza.

“If Hamas confiscates them or doesn’t let it get through … then it’s going to end,” Biden told reporters during an unexpected visit to the press cabin of Air Force One.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/18/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-update/#link-SHRV4JAR5FH7DD5C3FTJ4QESBQ