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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 20, 2023 12:24:47 GMT -5
Heath was certainly a member of the "my turn" offense that Ewing ran for his hired guns. I would hope and expect that Heath gets less playing time than Epps and Brumbaugh. Cooley has pretty much already waved the white flag on being competitive in the 2023-2024 season, so there's not much reason to play Heath ahead of two guys that will be here when we're good again. I assume that your statement (what I bolded above) is based on the schedule. While that's a valid point, I am not sure I buy it. Providence last year had the 352nd worst OOC schedule and they made the tournament. I don't think Cooley gave up on that team before the season started. In my mind, you have to play the best guys until it's obvious you're not going to be competitive. If that's Heath, so be it. Keep in mind we are also coming from a season where Ewing played a super tight rotation. I don't expect that will be the case, at least initially. I don't think anybody will play as many minutes as Spears did last year, for example. So, there'll be more minutes to go around. Obviously, development is important. 2024-2025 should be a better season than 2023-2024, and you need to play your transfers/freshman because you want them to be integrated into the team and stay for additional years. But, people also like to win. So, it's a balance. I don't think the choice is (a) play your veterans to win as much as possible, and (b) just play the younger guys who will be crucial for years ahead. In my mind, Akok almost certainly should get significant playing time this year, as I highly doubt there will be others better than him, and Heath will probably get some time too because he's a proven shooter (and really should be better under Cooley than under Ewing's mess of an offense). IF they give you the best chance to win, you do that. Winning will help morale, it will boost our odds recruiting (since it bolsters the "Cooley has the program on the rise" narrative), and it will help garner interest in the program. A lot of this is kind of silly too, in the sense that we have hardly anybody returning and overall our roster is fairly young. Unless I am missing somebody, Heath, Akok, and Massoud are the only ones with no eligibility left after this year. That's three guys. Massoud didn't play a ton of minutes last year, Heath played only about 54% of available minutes, and even Akok only played 72.2% of available minutes. Add on top the fact that Heath is the only super-senior guard (and not a particularly great ball handler), and that means there is going to be a lot of guard time available no matter how much Heath plays. Cooley's use of guys has really varied with the teams he's coached. For example, in 2019-2020, nobody had more than 32.7 minutes a game played, and a lot of guys played a lot of minutes, whereas in 2020-2021, David Duke played almost 37.1 minutes per game, or Bryce Cotton who averaged 39.9 minutes per game in 2014. But in several other years, nobody is even nearly that high in usage. Overall, Cooley generally has a lot of guys who average over 10 mpg in the games they do play, and tends to use a fairly wide roster. There is going to be plenty of playing time for those who deserve it, simply because we don't have the star type players deserving of those minutes. And if it turns out we do have guys that are THAT good, by all means play them hard and let's win some games.
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 20, 2023 12:39:40 GMT -5
Heath was certainly a member of the "my turn" offense that Ewing ran for his hired guns. I would hope and expect that Heath gets less playing time than Epps and Brumbaugh. Cooley has pretty much already waved the white flag on being competitive in the 2023-2024 season, so there's not much reason to play Heath ahead of two guys that will be here when we're good again. I assume that your statement (what I bolded above) is based on the schedule. While that's a valid point, I am not sure I buy it. Providence last year had the 352nd worst OOC schedule and they made the tournament. I don't think Cooley gave up on that team before the season started. In my mind, you have to play the best guys until it's obvious you're not going to be competitive. If that's Heath, so be it. Keep in mind we are also coming from a season where Ewing played a super tight rotation. I don't expect that will be the case, at least initially. I don't think anybody will play as many minutes as Spears did last year, for example. So, there'll be more minutes to go around. Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Jul 20, 2023 15:13:10 GMT -5
I assume that your statement (what I bolded above) is based on the schedule. While that's a valid point, I am not sure I buy it. Providence last year had the 352nd worst OOC schedule and they made the tournament. I don't think Cooley gave up on that team before the season started. In my mind, you have to play the best guys until it's obvious you're not going to be competitive. If that's Heath, so be it. Keep in mind we are also coming from a season where Ewing played a super tight rotation. I don't expect that will be the case, at least initially. I don't think anybody will play as many minutes as Spears did last year, for example. So, there'll be more minutes to go around. Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season. I could easily make the argument that this is the best staff Heath has been coached by during his career. How much winning did Al Durham or Justin Minaya do prior to playing for Cooley & staff? Play your best players until the team is eliminated.. Also, I don't expect him to get a lot more minutes than Epps & Rowan.
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Post by daymondmyles on Jul 20, 2023 21:31:36 GMT -5
I assume that your statement (what I bolded above) is based on the schedule. While that's a valid point, I am not sure I buy it. Providence last year had the 352nd worst OOC schedule and they made the tournament. I don't think Cooley gave up on that team before the season started. In my mind, you have to play the best guys until it's obvious you're not going to be competitive. If that's Heath, so be it. Keep in mind we are also coming from a season where Ewing played a super tight rotation. I don't expect that will be the case, at least initially. I don't think anybody will play as many minutes as Spears did last year, for example. So, there'll be more minutes to go around. Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season. A proven loser?! What a ridiculous and obnoxious statement. And the rest?Just goes to show you can track basketball obsessively and still not have a clue about the game including coaching and roster construction and management.
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jul 20, 2023 21:39:48 GMT -5
Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season. A proven loser?! What a ridiculous and obnoxious statement. And the rest?Just goes to show you can track basketball obsessively and still not have a clue about the game including coaching and roster construction and management. How is Heath not a proven loser?
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jul 20, 2023 22:23:04 GMT -5
Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season. A proven loser?! What a ridiculous and obnoxious statement. And the rest?Just goes to show you can track basketball obsessively and still not have a clue about the game including coaching and roster construction and management. Agreed. Just a disgusting characterization of any young person. Especially one that is just playing a sport. It's not that serious and it certainly doesn't warrant character attacks like that.
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Post by daymondmyles on Jul 20, 2023 22:29:34 GMT -5
Just because he was on crappy teams doesn’t make him a loser individually. There aren’t many single college players that could’ve made those BC, ASU and Gtown teams very good.
Is he a point guard type of leader? No. Can he be a valuable scorer on a good team? Yes.
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Post by trillesthoya on Jul 20, 2023 22:56:40 GMT -5
A proven loser?! What a ridiculous and obnoxious statement. And the rest?Just goes to show you can track basketball obsessively and still not have a clue about the game including coaching and roster construction and management. How is Heath not a proven loser? Why do you spend this much time invested in Hoya sports if you clearly hate everything about it? The only proven loser I see is the guy who spends an inordinate amount of time following a team they have nothing positive to ever say about.
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guru
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Post by guru on Jul 20, 2023 23:57:48 GMT -5
How is Heath not a proven loser? Why do you spend this much time invested in Hoya sports if you clearly hate everything about it? The only proven loser I see is the guy who spends an inordinate amount of time following a team they have nothing positive to ever say about. Amen
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jul 21, 2023 5:29:04 GMT -5
The guards who put us in the best position for us to win should be on the floor. Individual stat lines from last season be damned.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 21, 2023 8:46:53 GMT -5
I assume that your statement (what I bolded above) is based on the schedule. While that's a valid point, I am not sure I buy it. Providence last year had the 352nd worst OOC schedule and they made the tournament. I don't think Cooley gave up on that team before the season started. In my mind, you have to play the best guys until it's obvious you're not going to be competitive. If that's Heath, so be it. Keep in mind we are also coming from a season where Ewing played a super tight rotation. I don't expect that will be the case, at least initially. I don't think anybody will play as many minutes as Spears did last year, for example. So, there'll be more minutes to go around. Correct on the schedule - keep in mind, Providence barely squeaked in as an at-large after going 13-7 in a loaded Big East last season. Does anybody realistically expect the Hoyas to have a record like that in the 2023-2024 Big East? friars.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2022-23If Heath is substantially better than Epps and/or Brumbaugh as to get a lot more minutes than either of them, we're in trouble in 2024-2025 and beyond. Heath is a proven loser. He scores points and doesn't defend particularly well while playing for bad teams. He doesn't facilitate for others and he doesn't provide leadership. I get why we kept him, particularly as an insurance policy against injury to Epps/Brumbaugh, but I don't think it bodes well for the medium-term future of the program if he's getting a ton of minutes and shots this coming season. No, I don't think we will go 13-7, but you never know. As far as Heath, I think you aren't factoring in that he generally has played for pretty bad teams in his career, and I think you'll certainly agree that the team/staff he played for last year was pretty horrendous. Heath is not, and has never been, a ball-hog type like Primo Spears last year, for example. And he has shot 38% from three on some very bad teams and some teams with weak coaching. If he can shoot 38% for us from three next year, he clearly has a role on this team. People also get bent out of shape over who starts (which is what began this whole discussion), which misses the point. I think there's a distinct possibility Heath starts (at least at the beginning of the year), but will not play a ridiculously large amount of minutes. As I said, if you look at Cooley's usage of players, he keeps rotations that are fairly wide compared to what Ewing did last year. As I said, there's a delicate balance between trying to be competitive and developing players. I guarantee you if Cooley started all freshman/young guys, some people on here would complain that Cooley isn't allowing the veterans to show the younger players how it's done, and then complain when we have closes losses that would have been avoidable had the more experienced people like Heath played. If the difference between playing Heath higher minutes in Big East play is the difference between a 5-15 record, and an 8-10 record, for example, I would choose the latter, as long as our younger guys get playing time too. This program has had so much losing in recent years, we need to try to win meaningful games and show there's a spark there.
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TC
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Post by TC on Jul 21, 2023 9:02:35 GMT -5
If the difference between playing Heath higher minutes in Big East play is the difference between a 5-15 record, and an 8-10 record, for example, I would choose the latter, as long as our younger guys get playing time too. This program has had so much losing in recent years, we need to try to win meaningful games and show there's a spark there. I know this is a hypothetical, but I know that you know that the difference between Heath and Epps or Brumbaugh is not 3 wins. Heath's best season has been 2 win shares, Epps basically matched that in his freshman year. I doubt the difference between Heath and Hashem Asad is three wins. Three wins is a giant gulf in value.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 21, 2023 9:06:46 GMT -5
If the difference between playing Heath higher minutes in Big East play is the difference between a 5-15 record, and an 8-10 record, for example, I would choose the latter, as long as our younger guys get playing time too. This program has had so much losing in recent years, we need to try to win meaningful games and show there's a spark there. I know this is a hypothetical, but I know that you know that the difference between Heath and Epps or Brumbaugh is not 3 wins. Heath's best season has been 2 win shares, Epps basically matched that in his freshman year. I doubt the difference between Heath and Hashem Asad is three wins. Three wins is a giant gulf in value. Yes, I am exhausted from work and was just throwing out a hypothetical, and probably should have said that-- I agree. I really do agree that the young players should get a lot of playing time this year, I just don't think it's an either-or, given that we don't really have many experienced players to begin with, though I do think they have a role.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 21, 2023 15:01:27 GMT -5
I know this is a hypothetical, but I know that you know that the difference between Heath and Epps or Brumbaugh is not 3 wins. Heath's best season has been 2 win shares, Epps basically matched that in his freshman year. I doubt the difference between Heath and Hashem Asad is three wins. Three wins is a giant gulf in value. I doubt you could find any players on losing teams with high WS totals... First, "Win Share" is a concept that can be calculated in a number of ways. It's a common stat used in baseball, for example, to try to show the impact of a player, and it can be useful also in comparing players across eras, too. You often see it references in baseball Hall of Fame discussions. Second, there are different ways to calculate win share. See the linked article from Sports Reference: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/ws.html Some calculations allow for negative win shares (like Sports Reference), some do not. I am not an expert on win share calculations by any stretch, but win share is directly linked to how many wins a team has. Third, while this is sort of a statement of the obvious, it is impossible to have any win shares if you do not win. Case in point. Chicago State in 2020-2021 only play 9 games, and they won zero. Nobody on the team had a positive win share. This supports what someone else stated, which is that a team with few wins (us last year), simply isn't going to have a lot of win shares. So talking about Heath's win share is kind of silly, as statistically he cannot posssibly have had a very high one. Third, despite my enjoyment of advanced stats, etc. I have actually never focused a ton on the win share stat in basketball even though even though I love (meaningful) stats. So, I decided to take a quick look at some data points: - In the Final Four Year, Roy Hibbert actually had the highest total win share-7.9-to Green's 6.3. For perspective, Macklin's win share that year was 1.2. - In 2007-2008, Hibbert's win share was 6.8. Next closest was Wallace at 4.4. - In our last arguably great regular season in 2012-2013, in which Georgetown went 25-7, Otto Porter's win share was 7.1. The next closest was Markel Starks with 3.9. - Last year, Wahab had the highest win share at 2.1. But, again, you cannot earn much win share if your team doesn't win many games. The year before, the highest win share was 2.6 with Donald Carey. For this reason, using win shares to compare players on different teams isn't a great measure. This is an extreme example, but let's say you put Lebron James on a horrible team that had 0 wins (unlikely for any team with James). He would have 0 win shares. That's an extreme, but in that scenario he'd have 0 win share. The real value of a win share stat is comparing guys on a roster to see their impact. But, it's not terribly useful for saying X player on Team 1 is better than Y player on Team 2. To address what started all this, Heath v. Epps: Jamal Epps at Illinois had a win share of 1.9, and Heath's was 0.9. When you actually look at their efficiency stats, though their efficiency is almost identical on offense. Sticking with Sports Reference, Heath's O rating is 103.1, and D rating is 114.8. Epps' O rating is 102.8 and D rating is 102.3. So they were very similar on offense, and Epps was a much better defensive player. Defensive efficiency is not a great or reliable stat, but if you look at Georgetown's roster generally, Heath was among our worst defensive players. The major caveat is we have no idea how either Epps or Heath will play in a defensive system run by Ed Cooley. That's especially so for Heath, given that Ewing was such a horrendous defensive coach. In the year immediately preceding Georgeown, Heath's defensive efficiency was much better. So we will see. But yes, solely looking at stats (and not actually evaluating them in person), I would say Epps has as good, if not better argument, to play over Heath (including that we could have Epps more years and Heath is in his last year). But not overwhelmingly so. Epps probably has more potential and may be a better defender, but Heath may be the better choice for certain offensive situations and when we need to put up threes. Epps only shot 30.1% from three, compared to Heath's lifetime 38%. I really think they could be complementary players. As I've said, we really need to stop looking at scenarios like this as either/ors. It very well could be the case that Heath is a better option in certain instances (like when we need threes), whereas Epps might be the better choice in other scenarios.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jul 21, 2023 23:09:01 GMT -5
There’s lots of interesting posts here, but does anyone really think Cooley is doing anything but picking the starting lineup based primarily on practice play?
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jackofjoy
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Post by jackofjoy on Jul 22, 2023 8:15:31 GMT -5
There’s lots of interesting posts here, but does anyone really think Cooley is doing anything but picking the starting lineup based primarily on practice play? ^^ what’s the analytic for “culture and cohesion” … number of total wins in a season?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jul 22, 2023 16:21:33 GMT -5
There’s lots of interesting posts here, but does anyone really think Cooley is doing anything but picking the starting lineup based primarily on practice play? ^^ what’s the analytic for “culture and cohesion” … number of total wins in a season? As good as any. I’m just saying that if Rowan or Jay or whomever is killing it in practice, Cooley isn’t going to be like “but so and so has more career starts.” I don’t think any coach does, but Cooley, in this situation, every one has got to be starting from effectively zero.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Jul 22, 2023 22:51:19 GMT -5
^^ what’s the analytic for “culture and cohesion” … number of total wins in a season? As good as any. I’m just saying that if Rowan or Jay or whomever is killing it in practice, Cooley isn’t going to be like “but so and so has more career starts.” I don’t think any coach does, but Cooley, in this situation, every one has got to be starting from effectively zero. True, but maybe let's tap the breaks on the new arrivals instead of expecting they will out-perform in practice a player who has started for 4 years in major conferences averaging double digits and shooting 38% from 3. I think Rowan is the least affected by Heath as I think they play different positions.
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Post by HoyaRejuveNation85 on Jul 24, 2023 15:34:46 GMT -5
I like Heath, yet I cannot forget him having serious issues handling the ball when Primo was out of the game or not going coast to coast. He’s no PG and maybe not even a competent backup PG imo. If Rowan can handle and dish, his playing time is not threatened by Heath. Maybe Epps, but I haven’t seen enough of him. Heath is a good shooter from deep, who will have a substantial role on this team, and will benefit from ball movement and some drive and kicks. I never thought Heath was chucking last year, even when shots for anyone but Brandon and Primo were scarce. I hope he has a great year and hits some big shots for us.
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conshyhoya
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Post by conshyhoya on Jul 24, 2023 18:57:37 GMT -5
I like Heath, yet I cannot forget him having serious issues handling the ball when Primo was out of the game or not going coast to coast. He’s no PG and maybe not even a competent backup PG imo. If Rowan can handle and dish, his playing time is not threatened by Heath. Maybe Epps, but I haven’t seen enough of him. Heath is a good shooter from deep, who will have a substantial role on this team, and will benefit from ball movement and some drive and kicks. I never thought Heath was chucking last year, even when shots for anyone but Brandon and Primo were scarce. I hope he has a great year and hits some big shots for us. Although I don't want Heath to be our PG and rather see Rowan take that role I don't recall Heath being the primary ball handler at all when Primo was out. Murray usually did that and he was horrible. I only saw a few Illinois games last year so I can't speak much on Epps handling the ball but statistically Epps and Heath were similar. I would still rather see Epps take over if Rowan is out since Heath is the way better shooter.
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