blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,759
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Post by blueandgray on Nov 15, 2022 1:28:31 GMT -5
Back to northwestern….what are their strengths/weaknesses? Doing a rudimentary analysis they seem to be 4 3pt shooters and one big. So kind of like Villanova except Villanova has 4 guards/wings and one big while NW plays 2 bigs and 3 guards/wings. (With one big being able to shoot 3s) The 4 3pt shooters will shoot between 20-30 3pters in the game so anytime you have that there’s a lot of variability. They could 3pt barrage us out of the gym or stink it up. This will be a good test for our 3 pt defense. Attacking their 3pt shooting 6-9 big Berans is the key as if we get him in foul trouble they really don’t have another 3pt big to replace him. I expect Mozone and Akok with that defensive assignment. I do think our pressing and trapping may be rally effective however given they only have 3 ball handlers. I am just assuming that Berans won’t be fast or a good ball handler given his size at 6-9. He does have a low turnover rate but might not be able to help the guards against the press. If that’s the case then we may blow the doors off them. M Thank you! Thus far I haven’t been overly impressed by our perimeter defense and closing out on shooters. Hopefully we rise to the occasion. On the flip side, it sounds like we have the size advantage. If we can get I to the paint and pound it inside…should bode well for us.
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,357
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 15, 2022 7:33:08 GMT -5
Line I'm seeing now is Northwestern - 1.5, O/U 144.5
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bluegray79
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,099
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Post by bluegray79 on Nov 15, 2022 7:49:28 GMT -5
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Post by capcenterhoya on Nov 15, 2022 7:51:45 GMT -5
Northwestern runs a patient and methodical offense. They will bait us into overhelping. Buie, in particular, will be a challenge for our guards to keep out of the lane. It will be a good test to see if the defense has improved from Coppin State. Feels like one of those classic games where the "talent" favors us, but the lack of scheme/discipline puts us at a disadvantage.
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calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,358
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Post by calhoya on Nov 15, 2022 8:06:10 GMT -5
In a close game FTs become critical and thus far have not been a strength of this Hoya team. Hoping to see anything resembling competent defense on the perimeter and will be very interested to see how Ewing manages the bench. Suddenly lots of players and no more minutes. Start is too early for me to see the first half out here but will be reading this board and thanking in advance those who can watch for in game summaries of the action.
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bluegray79
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,099
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Post by bluegray79 on Nov 15, 2022 8:51:45 GMT -5
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,452
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Post by hoyaboya on Nov 15, 2022 9:05:18 GMT -5
Line I'm seeing now is Northwestern - 1.5, O/U 144.5 I guess Vegas wasn't impressed by the Jay Heath waiver news.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,780
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 15, 2022 10:07:20 GMT -5
Perfect test to see if this team is actually better than last year -- though by no means the last.
GAME DAY PEOPLE!
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 15, 2022 10:14:40 GMT -5
Line I'm seeing now is Northwestern - 1.5, O/U 144.5 The oddmakers clearly use a system/analytics to set the line that is close to KenPom and similar. For example, KenPom has Northwestern winning the game at 73-72, which is consistent with a 1.5 line, and also the over/under. So, it's not a surprise at all that it opened at -0.5 Northwestern, or that it'd be -1.5 now. Both are within the area where it should open, and then obviously it's adjusted based on bets. I do wonder how much is bet on a game like ours tonight. I imagine there are sports betters who bet on nearly everything everyday, but I imagine the total betting on a game like ours, on a Tuesday in November, is very low.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Nov 15, 2022 10:53:31 GMT -5
Since this appears to be an extended Gavitt games thread, Butler was basically trading two for threes last night. Bates was solid, Hunter didn't have a good shooting game nor did Lakosius. Butler won't scare anybody but they will be in a lot of games. They have a lot more movement on O then years past. Penn State just kept hitting clutch 3's (while I was watching which was limited) but both teams seem like middling B1G and BE teams.
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 15, 2022 10:55:49 GMT -5
Line I'm seeing now is Northwestern - 1.5, O/U 144.5 The oddmakers clearly use a system/analytics to set the line that is close to KenPom and similar. For example, KenPom has Northwestern winning the game at 73-72, which is consistent with a 1.5 line, and also the over/under. So, it's not a surprise at all that it opened at -0.5 Northwestern, or that it'd be -1.5 now. Both are within the area where it should open, and then obviously it's adjusted based on bets. I do wonder how much is bet on a game like ours tonight. I imagine there are sports betters who bet on nearly everything everyday, but I imagine the total betting on a game like ours, on a Tuesday in November, is very low. I think it would be low because there are two many unknowns with both teams and anytime you have a 3pt volume shooting team there’s also of variability so it’s not a lock game. There would be Better places/games to bet your money
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,385
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Post by drquigley on Nov 15, 2022 11:21:49 GMT -5
Why do I get a FGCU vibe?
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 15, 2022 11:29:25 GMT -5
Why do I get a FGCU vibe? Because you are clueless
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78HOYA78
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 397
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Post by 78HOYA78 on Nov 15, 2022 11:33:35 GMT -5
I just saw the highlights of GW game and I was impressed with our shot selection. In particular no rush to shoot the three. Our defense looked good. However, there were a lot of shots under the basket for GW in which they fumbled away. Akok is a menace. Keep getting the bench some reps. Also know one could have predicted the way FGCU played - that was a shocke, they played above the room. My prediction is that no one will want to play us as the season progresses. Did you see Depaul.
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,357
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 15, 2022 11:56:18 GMT -5
Why do I get a FGCU vibe? Accepting as true capcenterhoya's statement that NW plays a "patient and methodical offense", your vibe seems way off. FGCU's offense was anything but "patient and methodical."
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 15, 2022 12:10:13 GMT -5
While NW does return 58% of their offense, they lost their best two players who transferred to Duke (Pete Nance) and UNC (Ryan Young), so hard to get a read on their performances from last year.
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,385
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Post by drquigley on Nov 15, 2022 13:00:51 GMT -5
Why do I get a FGCU vibe? Accepting as true capcenterhoya's statement that NW plays a "patient and methodical offense", your vibe seems way off. FGCU's offense was anything but "patient and methodical." This is what gives me the FGCU vibe: "The 4 3pt shooters will shoot between 20-30 3pters in the game so anytime you have that there’s a lot of variability. They could 3pt barrage us out of the gym or stink it up."
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Post by FHillsNYHoya on Nov 15, 2022 13:48:59 GMT -5
Seems like perhaps the Colorado game might be a more apt description if going that route.
I think we were getting 7 and +250 or so a neutral floor.
Hoping the Wildcats don't shoot 65% from 3...
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,759
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Post by blueandgray on Nov 15, 2022 14:33:26 GMT -5
If we are talking beat downs….Ohio may be a possibility. This is one way to prepare for the worst.
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,207
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Post by hoya9797 on Nov 15, 2022 14:36:03 GMT -5
If we are talking beat downs….Ohio may be a possibility. This is one way to prepare for the worst. NU stinks. There is no beat down coming, at least not from them.
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