bills
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 252
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Post by bills on May 24, 2022 8:34:50 GMT -5
I think an at-large bid is possible and a great goal. In terms of a bar that we have to pass or the season would have to be considered a failure, again, I would put that bar at not playing on Wednesday in the BET.
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 743
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Post by rhw485 on May 24, 2022 9:00:52 GMT -5
I've posted this before but updated T-Rank including the Q transfer. barttorvik.com/?&conlimit=BESo yes we're still projected last in BE. But if you sort by offense and then defense you see what's happening. We're now projected as a top 100 offense (92nd) and 8th in the Big East. The defense is projected to finish last. Now I assume that's based off last year's results more than anything else, but the reality still remains that this is really all about defense. I think the BE could easily support 7 tourney teams, so if you're looking at offense alone you can talk yourself into being right in the range. And that's why I'm conflicted on Q. I'm happy he's back, he is a very viable option for us in the halfcourt and gives us another shot blocking threat. But it really brings up two big questions. 1. Will the defensive scheme change materially? Does Q actually help the defense? I was talking myself into a more switchable lineup with Akok moonlighting at center and getting away with a Bristol or Mozone at the PF and leveraging what Nickelberry saw at LSU. Will Ewing always play one of Q / Mutombo at all times? Last year he showed more willingness to go small but that was out of necessity. If Mutombo doesn't make a major improvement on the defensive end, I'd like to see Akok get those minutes at center in smaller lineups. 2. Managing a large rotation. It's a Hoyatalk tradition to overstate our depth and then we get to the season and we're playing 7-8 guys. But even I'll admit, there's a lot of people on this roster who think they're going to be playing real minutes. Can Ewing handle that? Will the lineups make sense? the last time we had this type of depth, the roster didn't make it to January. But to broadly answer the big question...I'll go with "meaningful games in Late Feb / early March". We at least need to be in the bubble discussion. I'm not going to pretend that if Ewing gets this team on the bubble his job would be in jeopardy given we kept him off 0-20.
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wsdhoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 466
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Post by wsdhoya on May 24, 2022 9:24:19 GMT -5
So many of you are saying this team has tournament talent, or even that this team is deep. What data points are you using to get to that conclusion? One singular player on this roster played in the tournament last season. Several guys are almost comically inefficient (Spears shot 36%. 36. For Duquesne.) and we are still light at multiple positions. Statistical ranks such as T rank still have us in dead last with Q back. If you compare our roster to others in the league I don’t understand how you can think we are better than anybody except DePaul and maybe St. John’s and Butler.
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thedragon
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Posts: 2,345
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Post by thedragon on May 24, 2022 9:24:45 GMT -5
I've posted this before but updated T-Rank including the Q transfer. barttorvik.com/?&conlimit=BESo yes we're still projected last in BE. But if you sort by offense and then defense you see what's happening. We're now projected as a top 100 offense (92nd) and 8th in the Big East. The defense is projected to finish last. Now I assume that's based off last year's results more than anything else, but the reality still remains that this is really all about defense. I think the BE could easily support 7 tourney teams, so if you're looking at offense alone you can talk yourself into being right in the range. And that's why I'm conflicted on Q. I'm happy he's back, he is a very viable option for us in the halfcourt and gives us another shot blocking threat. But it really brings up two big questions. 1. Will the defensive scheme change materially? Does Q actually help the defense? I was talking myself into a more switchable lineup with Akok moonlighting at center and getting away with a Bristol or Mozone at the PF and leveraging what Nickelberry saw at LSU. Will Ewing always play one of Q / Mutombo at all times? Last year he showed more willingness to go small but that was out of necessity. If Mutombo doesn't make a major improvement on the defensive end, I'd like to see Akok get those minutes at center in smaller lineups. 2. Managing a large rotation. It's a Hoyatalk tradition to overstate our depth and then we get to the season and we're playing 7-8 guys. But even I'll admit, there's a lot of people on this roster who think they're going to be playing real minutes. Can Ewing handle that? Will the lineups make sense? the last time we had this type of depth, the roster didn't make it to January. But to broadly answer the big question...I'll go with "meaningful games in Late Feb / early March". We at least need to be in the bubble discussion. I'm not going to pretend that if Ewing gets this team on the bubble his job would be in jeopardy given we kept him off 0-20. The formula not only has us last in the conference on defense. But last by NINETY-TWO (92) spots.
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,207
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Post by hoya9797 on May 24, 2022 9:28:40 GMT -5
I've posted this before but updated T-Rank including the Q transfer. barttorvik.com/?&conlimit=BESo yes we're still projected last in BE. But if you sort by offense and then defense you see what's happening. We're now projected as a top 100 offense (92nd) and 8th in the Big East. The defense is projected to finish last. Now I assume that's based off last year's results more than anything else, but the reality still remains that this is really all about defense. I think the BE could easily support 7 tourney teams, so if you're looking at offense alone you can talk yourself into being right in the range. And that's why I'm conflicted on Q. I'm happy he's back, he is a very viable option for us in the halfcourt and gives us another shot blocking threat. But it really brings up two big questions. 1. Will the defensive scheme change materially? Does Q actually help the defense? I was talking myself into a more switchable lineup with Akok moonlighting at center and getting away with a Bristol or Mozone at the PF and leveraging what Nickelberry saw at LSU. Will Ewing always play one of Q / Mutombo at all times? Last year he showed more willingness to go small but that was out of necessity. If Mutombo doesn't make a major improvement on the defensive end, I'd like to see Akok get those minutes at center in smaller lineups. 2. Managing a large rotation. It's a Hoyatalk tradition to overstate our depth and then we get to the season and we're playing 7-8 guys. But even I'll admit, there's a lot of people on this roster who think they're going to be playing real minutes. Can Ewing handle that? Will the lineups make sense? the last time we had this type of depth, the roster didn't make it to January. But to broadly answer the big question...I'll go with "meaningful games in Late Feb / early March". We at least need to be in the bubble discussion. I'm not going to pretend that if Ewing gets this team on the bubble his job would be in jeopardy given we kept him off 0-20. The formula not only has us last in the conference on defense. But last by NINETY-TWO (92) spots. Seems a bit optimistic.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on May 24, 2022 9:34:44 GMT -5
My bar is for us to be in the tourney. That is not based on personnel, but based on what stage we are in the current process with this team & coach. You can't be in year six and not expect to make the tourney. We need to be top half of the big east.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,390
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Post by prhoya on May 24, 2022 9:53:03 GMT -5
My bar is for us to be in the tourney. That is not based on personnel, but based on what stage we are in the current process with this team & coach. You can't be in year six and not expect to make the tourney. We need to be top half of the big east. Some would say that that’s an unfair bar because we’re in Year 1 of the sixth rebuilding year. My bar is not play BET Wednesday which should be good enough this year to get us an at-large NCAAT bid.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,607
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Post by guru on May 24, 2022 10:02:39 GMT -5
The formula not only has us last in the conference on defense. But last by NINETY-TWO (92) spots. Seems a bit optimistic. You and hoyaboya need to start playing bridge together. Or start a book club. Do volunteer work. There has to be a better use of your time than endlessly posting the same thing every day here.
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on May 24, 2022 10:14:09 GMT -5
So difficult to separate what my bar is from what we know is a very low bar for the GU admin. Six years in, the NCAAT has to be the bar for a Big East program. But to be clear, I am not expecting to make the NCAAT. I do not share the optimism some have for what is a makeshift roster that has never played together, and many players that must perform have never played at the BE level before. No doubt it is a significantly better roster than last year, but not enough to leapfrog SIX teams to the top half of the BE.
For the GU admin, I honestly feel like if they win 6+ BE games, remain competitive all season and don't finish last; the admin will point to improvement and be happy to push off the buyout by another season.
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bostonfan
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,519
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Post by bostonfan on May 24, 2022 10:27:22 GMT -5
There are still many variables about the team as to how quickly they gel and what type of identity they can establish. Those have been issues for the teams Ewing has coached over the last 5 years and it always seems to take a while for the team to start playing decent basketball (last year it never happened!!) I do think the talent is better from top to bottom on this roster and they are better prepared to deal with any injuries or players missing games for other reasons. I am hopeful that the team comes together during the OOC schedule and they are playing well as they enter conference games. I think they should be competitive with everyone in the conference and should be in the mix for a NCAA tourney bid as they get into the final 5-6 games of the season. It will depend on how well they finish the regular season and the BE tourney.
With the roster they now have, there is no reason for them to not be a top half of the Big East team.
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Post by AshantiCooksBurner on May 24, 2022 11:26:58 GMT -5
Realistically, I want to be in the middle/upper middle of the big east and to be considered a bubble team all year long.
As important as on-court performance, I want the majority of this group to stay together and not continue to be this revolving door. I know times have changed and kids will transfer, but we can't be adding/subtracting 6-8 players every season.
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Post by hoyaatheart55 on May 24, 2022 11:39:49 GMT -5
I've posted this before but updated T-Rank including the Q transfer. barttorvik.com/?&conlimit=BESo yes we're still projected last in BE. But if you sort by offense and then defense you see what's happening. We're now projected as a top 100 offense (92nd) and 8th in the Big East. The defense is projected to finish last. Now I assume that's based off last year's results more than anything else, but the reality still remains that this is really all about defense. I think the BE could easily support 7 tourney teams, so if you're looking at offense alone you can talk yourself into being right in the range. And that's why I'm conflicted on Q. I'm happy he's back, he is a very viable option for us in the halfcourt and gives us another shot blocking threat. But it really brings up two big questions. 1. Will the defensive scheme change materially? Does Q actually help the defense? I was talking myself into a more switchable lineup with Akok moonlighting at center and getting away with a Bristol or Mozone at the PF and leveraging what Nickelberry saw at LSU. Will Ewing always play one of Q / Mutombo at all times? Last year he showed more willingness to go small but that was out of necessity. If Mutombo doesn't make a major improvement on the defensive end, I'd like to see Akok get those minutes at center in smaller lineups. 2. Managing a large rotation. It's a Hoyatalk tradition to overstate our depth and then we get to the season and we're playing 7-8 guys. But even I'll admit, there's a lot of people on this roster who think they're going to be playing real minutes. Can Ewing handle that? Will the lineups make sense? the last time we had this type of depth, the roster didn't make it to January. But to broadly answer the big question...I'll go with "meaningful games in Late Feb / early March". We at least need to be in the bubble discussion. I'm not going to pretend that if Ewing gets this team on the bubble his job would be in jeopardy given we kept him off 0-20. Do we know if these projections are assuming that Q and Heath get a waiver?
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,391
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Post by drquigley on May 24, 2022 11:55:10 GMT -5
If it's up to me we'd need at least 8-10 BE wins and at least one BET win AND some indication that the program was trending upward (e.g. no major transfers and good recruiting class). But knowing the GU administration I'd bet 5-6 BE wins would be enough to let Ewing ride out his contract extension.
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 743
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Post by rhw485 on May 24, 2022 12:30:32 GMT -5
Do we know if these projections are assuming that Q and Heath get a waiver? Yes, if you click on Georgetown it actually shows the contributors, minutes distribution, and projected offensive efficiency etc. It's not perfect, it has Q and Heath but is missing Bristol. I also disagree with some of the minutes distribution but I don't think it's enough to materially change the end result. The bigger thing is I imagine it's much easier to project offense for a new team and really difficult to project defense. Which is why if feels like last years results are weighing heavily. It's going more off the coaching staff for defense than the players themselves. Can debate the logic there but I imagine they've historically looked and this is the best way to do it.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on May 24, 2022 12:52:40 GMT -5
If it's up to me we'd need at least 8-10 BE wins and at least one BET win AND some indication that the program was trending upward (e.g. no major transfers and good recruiting class). But knowing the GU administration I'd bet 5-6 BE wins would be enough to let Ewing ride out his contract extension. My head agrees with the bar you set, but my heart can't disagree with the opinion that after the minimal accomplishments of the last 5 years, especially coupled with last year's disaster, and with the upgraded roster, an NCAA bid should be the required result.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on May 24, 2022 13:08:51 GMT -5
So many of you are saying this team has tournament talent, or even that this team is deep. What data points are you using to get to that conclusion? One singular player on this roster played in the tournament last season. Several guys are almost comically inefficient (Spears shot 36%. 36. For Duquesne.) and we are still light at multiple positions. Statistical ranks such as T rank still have us in dead last with Q back. If you compare our roster to others in the league I don’t understand how you can think we are better than anybody except DePaul and maybe St. John’s and Butler. We have the number two incoming transfer class in the country (24/7)……it’s a talented roster….
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iowa80
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,402
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Post by iowa80 on May 24, 2022 13:13:45 GMT -5
I don’t think we will make the NCAAs, although the NIT is possible.
I don’t think we’ll be .500 in the league, although 9-11 is possible.
The ridiculous extension affects any consideration of Pat’s future, but over .500 overall and 7-8 league wins is a must.
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hoyaroc
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,324
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Post by hoyaroc on May 24, 2022 13:25:49 GMT -5
So many of you are saying this team has tournament talent, or even that this team is deep. What data points are you using to get to that conclusion? One singular player on this roster played in the tournament last season. Several guys are almost comically inefficient (Spears shot 36%. 36. For Duquesne.) and we are still light at multiple positions. Statistical ranks such as T rank still have us in dead last with Q back. If you compare our roster to others in the league I don’t understand how you can think we are better than anybody except DePaul and maybe St. John’s and Butler. Wsd, you make a fair point. But we have to hope and pray that we are tournament team. Coach Ewing will need to find a magic stick so this team can gel.
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
Posts: 2,889
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Post by CTHoya08 on May 24, 2022 13:31:10 GMT -5
I'm in the "Ewing should already be gone" camp, but obviously, that ship has already sailed. That said, here is where I would set the bar in a hypothetical world where I'm making the decision:
(1) At-large bid to the NCAA tournament; plus (2) Either a win in the NCAA or an appearance in the BET semifinal; plus (3) Roster stability.
Item (1) is the bare minimum, but in light of Ewing's "body of work" so far, it's not enough for me.
Hence item (2). I think asking for a Sweet 16 or another BET final appearance is too much to set as the bar, given the vagaries of single-elimination play. But just getting into the NCAA won't do it for me. If that's all we do, then we're looking at just two tournament appearances (with no wins) in six years. If we win a game, even if nobody really cares about Round-of-32 appearances, it's something. Ditto a "deep" run in the BET, which could really mean just one win if we actually avoid Wednesday for once. The fact that this seems like a lot to ask shows just how far we've fallen.
Item (3) is relative. Of course a lot of these guys are one-year rentals, and transfers are more common today than they've ever been. So I'm not saying that we need to have a zero-transfer offseason, or that I don't expect to see a fair number of new faces next year. But even if we hit items (1) and (2), if we're rebuilding the whole team again in April 2023, I won't be satisfied. (This can be ameliorated a bit if we have a strong freshman recruiting class in the pipeline. The bottom line is that we need to see some roster construction, not just one-off team assembly. We can't keep doing this every year.) And relatedly, now that we actually have a senior with Wahab back in the fold, I want to see him graduate.
Do I think these goals are necessarily realistic given the roster construction and that of the rest of the Big East? Not necessarily. But in my mind, Ewing should have been fired already, and this should be one last season to save his job. So it damn well better be a good one. Finishing 7-13 and in tenth might be an improvement over 0-19 and eleventh, but (coupled with the prior five years) it still is a fireable result.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on May 24, 2022 13:49:06 GMT -5
I'm in the "Ewing should already be gone" camp, but obviously, that ship has already sailed. That said, here is where I would set the bar in a hypothetical world where I'm making the decision: (1) At-large bid to the NCAA tournament; plus (2) Either a win in the NCAA or an appearance in the BET semifinal; plus (3) Roster stability. Item (1) is the bare minimum, but in light of Ewing's "body of work" so far, it's not enough for me. Hence item (2). I think asking for a Sweet 16 or another BET final appearance is too much to set as the bar, given the vagaries of single-elimination play. But just getting into the NCAA won't do it for me. If that's all we do, then we're looking at just two tournament appearances (with no wins) in six years. If we win a game, even if nobody really cares about Round-of-32 appearances, it's something. Ditto a "deep" run in the BET, which could really mean just one win if we actually avoid Wednesday for once. The fact that this seems like a lot to ask shows just how far we've fallen. Item (3) is relative. Of course a lot of these guys are one-year rentals, and transfers are more common today than they've ever been. So I'm not saying that we need to have a zero-transfer offseason, or that I don't expect to see a fair number of new faces next year. But even if we hit items (1) and (2), if we're rebuilding the whole team again in April 2023, I won't be satisfied. (This can be ameliorated a bit if we have a strong freshman recruiting class in the pipeline. The bottom line is that we need to see some roster construction, not just one-off team assembly. We can't keep doing this every year.) And relatedly, now that we actually have a senior with Wahab back in the fold, I want to see him graduate. Do I think these goals are necessarily realistic given the roster construction and that of the rest of the Big East? Not necessarily. But in my mind, Ewing should have been fired already, and this should be one last season to save his job. So it damn well better be a good one. Finishing 7-13 and in tenth might be an improvement over 0-19 and eleventh, but (coupled with the prior five years) it still is a fireable result. The roster stability will be key. I said this last season with the incoming freshman group. Now that that group is down to 2 of 5, we clearly need to see something next off season. Q makes it sound like he is looking at one year. Mozone is a one year guy. So assuming those two leave, we need to keep 6 of the remaining 8 that are first year guys. If not, it just doesn't make sense to bring guys in on one year rentals and keep whiffing like we have done historically with this staff.
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