HOW bad is it?

[hoyajmw]

It occurred to me that, VERY sad to say, even the 20 losses in a row and oh-fer in conference regular season doesn't REALLY capture how horrific and simply non-competitive in conference the Hoyas this year have been. In light of recent statements from the Administration and media, I thought it would be helpful (hopefully literally -- maybe someone who matters will see this and have an "a-ha" moment!) to provide a single thread to collect the objective and subjective evidence of just how beyond the pale this season has been. So I'll start with just a few things, beyond the 0-19 (one of three winless in conference teams in the double round robin BE era -- Miami 93-94 and Depaul 08-09) and the most losses due to expanded schedule, and a chance to set the BE overall record/including BET, at 0-20 Wednesday night, eclipsing Miami 93-94. 

-- The Hoyas have been down in their Big East games at some point in EVERY GAME BY AT LEAST 11 points, and on-average have been down by at least 20.1.

-- Their average final margin of loss in Big East games is 12.3 (and those of us who have watched EVERY game in person or on TV know that even that number is that low due in substantial part to the pity shown by opposing coaches)

-- The most the Hoyas were EVER ahead in a game was 12 (first half at home against Depaul; ultimately lost by 3) and probably the high water mark all things considered all year was being up at home by 8 on Villanova early in the second half. And there ends the material "we were meaningfully in front" summary...
 
-- the CLOSEST loss -- but there were TWO of them -- was by 3 points: the Depaul loss at home, and Butler on the road (the teams tied for 9th and 10th in conference, but each of which has 6 wins more than the Hoyas). There was one other 5 point loss (against Seton Hall recently! But we had a ball in the air late for the tie!). Those were the "close" games...



It isn't just that the Hoyas are losing every game in conference, it is that they haven't been IN most of the games (as those dwindling number of of us who still watch well know). I do think the players have continued to play hard/have done what they could, but clearly no material adjustments/improvements have been made over the year or really in games that allow the team to be COMPETITIVE. The narrative should not be "well, the Coach had a down year and didn't have the horses to compete." It is that the year was historically awful and the gallop in the horses was hobbled from the bench all year long.

I welcome insertion by others of any similar stats/tales here, even if they have been scattered elsewhere in threads. And I certainly don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, especially as it relates the the efforts of the players -- who are doing their best under extremely difficult circumstances; that is the opposite of what the intent is...

[hoya8]

All you say is true. The stuff of these board discussions is to where to lay the blame. The Coach is held responsible. He revels when they win and takes the criticism when they lose.

But you cannot ignore the make-up of the team. Rice, Carey and Holloway (today) are one-way players. Their stats look great on offense, but on defense as in the Conn. game and last night against Xavier, they are lost on defense. Count the number of times that ball was swung around to open players (average) players who had career days. Forty-two points scored last night on threes by a team noted before the game as NOT a good three-point shooting team.

They have no rim defenders. Motumbo is too soft, Wilson too inexperienced and Tim I is a development project with poor hands.

Where you can lay blame on the coaches is not developing the freshmen better. The measure of a good coaching staff is that your players are better at the end of the season. Beard is the classic case where his numbers and confidence have fallen through the floor. Billingsley with his size and speed has shown flashes but he do does not have confidence on the floor.

Right now of the players on the team, only Mohammed, Harris and perhaps Clarke stand out. Motumbo is an enigma. Perhaps the best thing for him is to keep his dad off the baseline. Sorry to be so disparaging. A new coach and staff will help but not without a roster infusion. The two recruits will help, Bristol will add experience and depth.

Add in a transfer with size and attitude, and you may have a nucleus.

[EasyEd]

But we did beat a tournament team: Longwood

[hoyajmw]

Another aggravation/indication that something is REALLY amiss here is the inability or unwillingness to recruit in the best local high school conferences, which of course most prominently includes the WCAC (i.e. Justin Moore, Nate Watson), the MAC (think Saddiq Bey/Josh Hart) and the IAC (Jared Bynum). In his five years here, Patrick has gotten all of TWO commitments out of high school in any of those conferences -- and one of those (Terrence Williams/Gonzaga) decommitted and is now at Michigan and the other was Flint Hill's Qudos Wahab -- and we know what happened there... We have had a few late in their careers transfers in (Terrell Allen/originally Dematha; Greg Malinowski, originally Episcopal) but both those success stories were a while ago and frankly just show that doing better locally is a "must do" and shouldn't be a freakin' afterthought.... This is of recent pertinence in part because yesterday there was a GREAT local game for the DCSAA "state" title, in which Sidwell Friends beat Wilson at the buzzer with a putback by a 6'7' Soph guard, Caleb Williams who is a REAL playa (as is a 6'5' frosh guard on that team). Link below (I think is behind a paywall, but can see headline, etc. anyway). Both Va Tech (which I understand offered Williams after the game) and UVA had recruiters in the building, but I didn't spot a Hoya coach anywhere and per another thread here understand Patrick was in Cincinati looking at some 2023 guard. Now, I can't be SURE we didn't have someone in the house as, unlike, our games, it was impossible to recognize/count every person in attendance but I don't think we did... And while I don't go to as many local games as I once did, I do go to many esp. tourney games between the loaded/good schools, and have yet to see a Hoya coach in attendance (in contrast, I saw Jay Wright at the WCAC semi's last week-end)-- let alone Patrick (and typically at such games, especially if you are wearing clothing to represent, someone will point out any Hoya representative to you...)*. And even toward the end of his tenure and when I thought his individual player judgment had really gone off the rails (Brandon Bolden anyone?), I used to see JTIII ALL the time at games -- even the regular season, no-big-deal games. So what is going on with respect to local recruiting? We either don't try or are so toxic we don't think it can be done -- neither of which are acceptable.

www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/03/06/dcsaa-boys-basketball-sidwell-friends-wilson-caleb-williams/

* And as far as I could tell/have been reliably informed, GU did not have anyone at the MAC final (also featuring Sidwell, which prevailed), the IAC final, the WCAC final (Paul VI vs. Bishop McNamara) or the Virginia private school (VISAA) final — also featuring Paul VI -- which has a very young/loaded team and of course is the alma mater for 3 years for Marcus Derickson, before he transferred for his last year to a New Hampshire national powerhouse. I used to often see  JTII and virtually the whole staff at their games, and have seen the Pope many times this year but haven't seen a single Hoya rep -- other than me, and I don't really count...

[hoyajmw]

A final update of the "misery loves company, limited though it is" statistic most of us know at high level.* There are THREE D1 teams that finished winless in conference. We are joined by 0-14 Delaware State (MEAC) and 0-18 Lamar (WAC). Delaware State had a pair of one point losses and Lamar's closest loss, like us, was by 3. All three of the schools averaged losing by more than 12 (12.315 for GU; 12.44 for Lamar; 12.5 for Delaware State).

*Again, I think the stats are correct, but a calculator and time to kill doth not a numbers guy make out of a lapsed lawyer, but I think there are in the ballpark on the averages at least...

[hoyajmw]

Patrick Ewing’s BE coaching record vs.:

Wright (Villanova): 2-9 (home 1-4, away 0-5, neutral 1-0)
McDermott (Creighton): 3-8 (h 1-4, a 1-4, n 1-0)
Jordan (Butler): 4-6 (h 1-4, a 3-2)
Hurley (UConn): 0-4 (h 0-2, a 0-2)
Leitao (DePaul): 4-3 (h 2-1, a 2-2)
Stubblefield (DePaul): 0-2 (h 0-1, a 0-1)
Wojciechowski (Marquette) 2-6 (h 0-4, a 1-2, n 1-0)
Smart (Marquette): 0-2 (h 0-1, a 0-1)
Cooley (Providence): 3-6 (h 2-3, a 1-3)
Willard (Seton Hall): 4-8 (h 3-2, a 0-5, n 1-1)
Mullin (SJU): 3-2 (h 1-1, a 2-0, n 0-1)
Anderson (SJU): 3-4 (h 2-1, a 1-2, n 0-1)
Mack (Xavier): 0-2 (h 0-1, a 0-1)
Steele (Xavier): 2-4 (h 2-1, a 0-3)

Patrick Ewing’s Big East regular season record:
2017-18 (5-13) = .278
2018-19 (9-9) = .500
2019-20 (5-13) = .278
2020-21 (7-9) = .438
2021-22 (0-19) = .000
BET (4-3) = .571

BE regular season w/ BET: 30-66 (h 15-30, a 11-33, n 4-3) = .312
BE regular season w/o BET: 26-63 (h 15-30, a 11-33) = .292

Notes:
•Craig Esherick’s BE record (1999-2004): BE overall 46-59 (.(438); BE reg. sea. 41–53 (.436); BET 5-6 (.454)
•John Thompson III’s BE record (2005-2017): BE overall 146-106 (.579); BE reg. sea. 131–94 (.580); BET 15-12 (.555)
• Patrick Ewing has a losing record against every current Big East coaches.
• Patrick Ewing is currently in a 20-game losing streak, which is the longest losing streak in Georgetown history.
• Patrick Ewing is in his 5th consecutive year of having a team ranked in the 300s in 3-point defense.
• Patrick Ewing's overall coaching record of 68-83 is the worst coaching record in the modern history of G.U. Men's Basketball.

DFW’s THE RECORD BOOK
(Revised as of Feb. 24)

Most Losses, One Season
2021-22 - 24
1971-72 - 23
1953-54, 2015-16, 16-17 - 18

Most Losses (Big East)
2021-22 - 19
2016-17, 17-18, 19-20 - 13
1997-98, 98-99, 03-04 - 12

Most Home Losses
2021-22 - 13
1950-51,17-18,19-20 - 8
1971-72 - 7

I wanted to first THANK PrHoya for keeping these stats (was beyond me, other than by cutting and pasting, how to move it into this thread for full, immeiate quoational credit). AND I wanted to add a rather surprising addenda: Mullin's regular season Big East record over 4 years was actually worse (only slightly) than Patrick's so far (20-52, the winning percentage was .2778). Including the conference tournament, where Mullin was 3-4, winning one game in his first three years and then, rather ironically, LOSING the first BET game in his last year but still being picked as "first four" NCAA team on the strength of a 21-13 record, his overall conference record was 23-56, or .2911 (also slightly worse than PE). Of course, Mullin realized his heart wasn’t really in it, for whatever reason (maybe the brother passing really was it, or simply the last straw) or he wasn't really good at it, and walked away after four seasons -- so notwithstanding the marginal winning percentage differences, advantage Mullin (so far). I for one remember the excitement of those early Ewing vs. Mullin coaching match-ups. Little did we know at the time what they actually portended...

[hoyajmw]

I'm not at all sure I did this so it will show up, but "Paint Touches" moments ago updated their grid of the Big East for the year... Needless to say (but I'll say it for emphasis in case I failed on the post), the Hoyas remain in a bottom tier all alone (or as the site so #DadJokes it, a "tear" all alone...)

[hoyajmw]

Speaking of recruiting (as I was above), I think the transfer portal in the past and going forward is not the panacea we hope; indeed, I think it has been and with the current coaching crew will continue to be a net negative. I don't have to remind folks here of who the Hoyas have LOST to transfer. But (I've said this before), I believe our last five transfers IN have been from Howard, Northwestern State, the Citadel, Eastern KY (who never played for us) and Sienna. Compare that to Marquette, for instance, which has transfers in Shaka's first year from Maryland, Clemson, Oklahoma and George Mason (who was the rookie of the year in the A10). And off the top of my head I know Creighton has a Duke transfer (Alex O'Connell). So maybe we end up with a what we hope is another undiscovered gem (Don Carey!) looking for a spotlight, but why in the world does anyone think, given our past performance on transfers and on the court this year, we are capable of bringing in more talent than (I fear) will flee? Are big men who are anything less than projects going to want to come here?    Especially when we seem to have either totally struck out and/or just given up on mining the richest HS hoops area in the world? (Favour Aire of Bishop McNamara certainly turned heel -- and even HE could well be a project).  I remember a line one time by a big time college coach to the effect that "recruiting is like brushing your teeth -- if you don't do it every day, you may not notice after one day but eventually it will catch up to you." I think that day is upon us, and unfortunately it should be obvious that believing the portal is gonna save us from running it back is just crazy talk/wishful thinking …

[jester]

We are ranked 351st, out of what, 355 teams? in 2pt FG percentage offense in the country. For a major team, I'm seriously asking - where does this rank all time? And I would be curious how those teams did / how they made changes.

[hoyajmw]

Not to pile on (too much) but rather for completeness sake, Hoyas are now the first team since Miami ‘93-94 and only the third ever (Providence 79-80 the other, which is pre- double round robin schedule, which barely counts) to go winless in the Big East THROUGH the BET and of course due to expanded schedule the only one to go 0-20. Miami kept their coach (Leonard Hamilton) and they won 9 games the next year. The other exemplar of futility, the 0-18 regular season DePaul 08-09 (which won their first BET game) also kept their coach (Jerry Wainwright) and rocketed to 1-17 in conference the next year (and lost their BET game). They then changed coaches (to Oliver Purnell) and it was steady as she goes the next year at 1-17 (and lost their BET game).

[RockawayHoya]

Mar 10, 2022 9:20:13 GMT -5 hoyajmw said:

Not to pile on (too much) but rather for completeness sake, Hoyas are now the first team since Miami ‘93-94 and only the third ever (Providence 79-80 the other, which is pre- double round robin schedule, which barely counts) to go winless in the Big East THROUGH the BET and of course due to expanded schedule the only one to go 0-20. Miami kept their coach (Leonard Hamilton) and they won 9 games the next year. The other exemplar of futility, the 0-18 regular season DePaul 08-09 (which won their first BET game) also kept their coach (Jerry Wainwright) and rocketed to 1-17 in conference the next year (and lost their BET game). They then changed coaches (to Oliver Purnell) and it was steady as she goes the next year at 1-17 (and lost their BET game).

Would recommend to anyone who hasn't already to go back and re-listen to the episode of Kente Korner where Bobby brings on the guy from Depaul. He asked him about '09 and how Depaul handled it back then. Long story short: they brought Wainwright back, forced him to change his staff (son included), and it did absolutely nothing to right the ship. Wainwright was fired like 10 games in and an interim coached out the remainder before Purnell came in.

Cautionary tale for whatever we decide to do, if anything, in the next few days/weeks.

[hoyalove4ever]

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

[hoyas212]

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

The league was not especially loaded this year, there are 3 top 25 teams.  And Georgetown didn't just finish in last place, they finished with 6 fewer wins than anyone else.  There is no clear fix it, but it's very hard for Georgetown to be this bad given the resources and infrastructure of the program and University.  

[vv83]

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

There may be no clear "fix it" solution

But 0-20 with the current head coach would seem to be a pretty clear data point indicating that there is one specific solution that definitely will not "fix it"!

[hoya9797]

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

I don’t think a 57 year old guy with 20+ years of college head coaching experience including 7 in the ACC can be considered an up and comer.

[RockawayHoya]

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

Agree that there is no clear "fix it" solution save university administration changes, but the cautionary tale is for people who believe that keeping Ewing and swapping out assistants IS the quick fix. Because the probability of success utilizing that course of action is very, very low.

[cas92]

Mar 10, 2022 10:51:08 GMT -5 hoya9797 said:

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

I don’t think a 57 year old guy with 20+ years of college head coaching experience including 7 in the ACC can be considered an up and comer.

Purnell's coaching career @ the college level, both as an assistant and head coach before being installed/including stint @ DePaul -

1977 – 1985 Old Dominion (Assistant)
1985 – 1988 Maryland (Assistant)
1988 – 1991 Radford (Head Coach)
1991 – 1994 Old Dominion (Head Coach)
1994 – 2003 Dayton (Head Coach)
2003 – 2010 Clemson (Head Coach)
2010 – 2015 DePaul (Head Coach)

Hardly an ascending "young and inexperienced" candidate by the time he landed in Chicago.

[iowa80]

Mar 10, 2022 10:58:08 GMT -5 RockawayHoya said:

Mar 10, 2022 10:00:20 GMT -5 hoyalove4ever said:

Is it a cautionary tale? Or was hiring Purnell (an "up and comer" at the time) the real cautionary tale? Both? Or is it just really hard to win at DePaul, NONE of their coaches are incompetent, and someone has to finish last in what many years (especially this one) is a loaded league?

None of those comments are meant to be argumentative- but I think the answers are murky. There is no clear "fix it" solution.

Agree that there is no clear "fix it" solution save university administration changes, but the cautionary tale is for people who believe that keeping Ewing and swapping out assistants IS the quick fix. Because the probability of success utilizing that course of action is very, very low.

It would be a cosmetic band-aid, cynically designed to placate the fans.  If Pat is to come back, I'd rather no changes be forced on him.  If he wants the present staff, that's what you get when you decide to retain him.  Live with the consequences.

[hoyajmw]

Mar 6, 2022 11:20:18 GMT -5 hoyajmw said:

It occurred to me that, VERY sad to say, even the 20 losses in a row and oh-fer in conference regular season doesn't REALLY capture how horrific and simply non-competitive in conference the Hoyas this year have been. In light of recent statements from the Administration and media, I thought it would be helpful (hopefully literally -- maybe someone who matters will see this and have an "a-ha" moment!) to provide a single thread to collect the objective and subjective evidence of just how beyond the pale this season has been. So I'll start with just a few things, beyond the 0-19 (one of three winless in conference teams in the double round robin BE era -- Miami 93-94 and Depaul 08-09) and the most losses due to expanded schedule, and a chance to set the BE overall record/including BET, at 0-20 Wednesday night, eclipsing Miami 93-94. 

-- The Hoyas have been down in their Big East games at some point in EVERY GAME BY AT LEAST 11 points, and on-average have been down by at least 20.1.

-- Their average final margin of loss in Big East games is 12.3 (and those of us who have watched EVERY game in person or on TV know that even that number is that low due in substantial part to the pity shown by opposing coaches)

-- The most the Hoyas were EVER ahead in a game was 12 (first half at home against Depaul; ultimately lost by 3) and probably the high water mark all things considered all year was being up at home by 8 on Villanova early in the second half. And there ends the material "we were meaningfully in front" summary...
 
-- the CLOSEST loss -- but there were TWO of them -- was by 3 points: the Depaul loss at home, and Butler on the road (the teams tied for 9th and 10th in conference, but each of which has 6 wins more than the Hoyas). There was one other 5 point loss (against Seton Hall recently! But we had a ball in the air late for the tie!). Those were the "close" games...



It isn't just that the Hoyas are losing every game in conference, it is that they haven't been IN most of the games (as those dwindling number of of us who still watch well know). I do think the players have continued to play hard/have done what they could, but clearly no material adjustments/improvements have been made over the year or really in games that allow the team to be COMPETITIVE. The narrative should not be "well, the Coach had a down year and didn't have the horses to compete." It is that the year was historically awful and the gallop in the horses was hobbled from the bench all year long.

I welcome insertion by others of any similar stats/tales here, even if they have been scattered elsewhere in threads. And I certainly don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, especially as it relates the the efforts of the players -- who are doing their best under extremely difficult circumstances; that is the opposite of what the intent is...

Just thought I’d update my own info from last year (above) to say that through 5 Big East games this year we once again have been down by at least 11 in every one at some point and our “closest” final is 7 to DePaul. Not to belabor the obvious too much for all of us here, but a big part of the issue isn’t just the losses it’s that we aren’t competitive — it’s not like a bunch of bad breaks have conspired against us and now “we’re due.”