Georgetown @ Xavier 3/5/22 Discussion

[DanMcQ]

Sure would be nice to put it together and bring a win home from Cintas. Too much to ask? We shall see.

[EtomicB]

Xavier's tourney hopes are doomed if they lose this game @ home..

Should be interesting to see how the staff handles covering Nunge...

[hoyajmw]

Double posted by accident. Now I don’t know how to just delete this one. Sorry!

[hoyajmw]

Winless in conference in a double round robin schedule, but still playing last game of regular season against a team against whom you improbably (impossibly?) still have an unblemished record? Let’s keep it that way! 

P.S.  I went 0-2 in starting these game threads — and lost my job. Not not not an unreasonable decision I say. Indeed, I was gonna resign…

[hoyaatheart55]

Mar 4, 2022 8:21:56 GMT -5 hoyajmw said:

Winless in conference in a double round robin schedule, but still playing last game of regular season against a team against whom you improbably (impossibly?) still have an unblemished record? Let’s keep it that way! 

P.S.  I went 0-2 in starting these game threads — and lost my job. Not not not an unreasonable decision I say. Indeed, I was gonna resign…

Re-hiring Dan was a backwards move. He hasn’t won a game in months. We need to clean house and start fresh no matter what the DanMcQ apologists think

[rhw485]

I can't get over the fact that Steele is likely coaching for his job on Saturday at 7 Big East wins and a bubble that's trending towards bursting while we're giving a vote of confidence while hoping to catch one win.

Xavier is definitely searching for it right now. Curious to see Nunge, have been impressed in small samples and is the the type of offensive center we're desperately missing.

[FrazierFanatic]

Mar 4, 2022 10:33:23 GMT -5 hoyaatheart55 said:

Mar 4, 2022 8:21:56 GMT -5 hoyajmw said:

Winless in conference in a double round robin schedule, but still playing last game of regular season against a team against whom you improbably (impossibly?) still have an unblemished record? Let’s keep it that way! 

P.S.  I went 0-2 in starting these game threads — and lost my job. Not not not an unreasonable decision I say. Indeed, I was gonna resign…

Re-hiring Dan was a backwards move. He hasn’t won a game in months. We need to clean house and start fresh no matter what the DanMcQ apologists think

I feel strongly that Dan does an acceptable job as moderator. His weakness is in recruiting - this may be a major conference board, but virtually every member has mid-major posting talent at best. And when he does get a 5 star poster he can't retain him or her. He needs to bring on an experienced recruiting moderator.

[EtomicB]

Mar 4, 2022 11:27:11 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

I can't get over the fact that Steele is likely coaching for his job on Saturday at 7 Big East wins and a bubble that's trending towards bursting while we're giving a vote of confidence while hoping to catch one win.

Xavier is definitely searching for it right now. Curious to see Nunge, have been impressed in small samples and is the the type of offensive center we're desperately missing.

You're right about Steele, I didn't realize they've lost 5 in a row & are 7-11 in conference...

Very good catch..

[hoyazeke]

Mar 4, 2022 11:27:11 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

I can't get over the fact that Steele is likely coaching for his job on Saturday at 7 Big East wins and a bubble that's trending towards bursting while we're giving a vote of confidence while hoping to catch one win.

Xavier is definitely searching for it right now. Curious to see Nunge, have been impressed in small samples and is the the type of offensive center we're desperately missing.

X brought back there entire team. Including a 5th year guy, Scruggs, that considered one of the top players in the BE preseason and a 3rd year guy, Freemantle, that was in the conversation for best big in the BE. Georgetown shouldn't be this bad but 4 Ws max in conference with this group. X was supposed to do what Provy did....

[SDHoya]

Yearly Hoya sports trip—planned well before we knew what was in store for the season. Hoping I won’t have to wear a paper bag over my head in Cintas.

If there is some hope here is that I imagine fans may get pretty antsy if things aren’t going well for X early on. Home court could become a disadvantage for X in that case.

[bamahoya11]

This is a lose-lose game for Xavier. If they lose, they are out of the NCAAs, and their coach is probably fired. Win, and it probably still hurts a lot of their metrics for postseason consideration. It’s why I’m not so sure other fan bases are celebrating if we keep Ewing. Remember when we didn’t want to move into a conference with Tulane and UCF? And UCONN leaving a league because they had to play them every year? Well, we are worse than both now, actually. It’s honestly not sustainable with the Big East’s expectations.

As for this game, I actually feel decent about it. Xavier isn’t playing well, it’s bad for them either way, and we have played some of our better basketball of late. We don’t know how to make winning plays, but Xavier won’t have a lot of confidence to make winning plays, either. If we bring the same effort we showed against DePaul, Seton Hall, and Villanova, I could see us pulling the upset.

[Bigs"R"Us]

Don’t see us winning. We can’t close out games and haven’t won on the road all year. They desperately need the win. Did I just jinx them. 😉

[hoyajmw]

Looks like 12.5 ‘dogs we be, with o/u at 148.5

[Elvado]

Back door cover screams out to me ….

[rhw485]

Mar 4, 2022 18:22:32 GMT -5 hoyazeke said:

Mar 4, 2022 11:27:11 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

I can't get over the fact that Steele is likely coaching for his job on Saturday at 7 Big East wins and a bubble that's trending towards bursting while we're giving a vote of confidence while hoping to catch one win.

Xavier is definitely searching for it right now. Curious to see Nunge, have been impressed in small samples and is the the type of offensive center we're desperately missing.

X brought back there entire team. Including a 5th year guy, Scruggs, that considered one of the top players in the BE preseason and a 3rd year guy, Freemantle, that was in the conversation for best big in the BE. Georgetown shouldn't be this bad but 4 Ws max in conference with this group. X was supposed to do what Provy did....

Right but if you zoom out further, this Xavier season would also be Ewings best regular season performance out of his 5 years(yes the 9-9 year is more BE wins but that team was not really even on the bubble) and it’s enough for Xavier fans to be fed up. Fully agree they have a better roster, but if Butler and Xavier move on from their coaches it just screams that they have higher standards than us.

[professorhoya]

Mar 4, 2022 21:23:17 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

This is a lose-lose game for Xavier. If they lose, they are out of the NCAAs, and their coach is probably fired. Win, and it probably still hurts a lot of their metrics for postseason consideration. It’s why I’m not so sure other fan bases are celebrating if we keep Ewing. .

How can it hurt their metrics if X win? that doesn't make sense.

[bamahoya11]

Mar 5, 2022 11:06:56 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Mar 4, 2022 21:23:17 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

This is a lose-lose game for Xavier. If they lose, they are out of the NCAAs, and their coach is probably fired. Win, and it probably still hurts a lot of their metrics for postseason consideration. It’s why I’m not so sure other fan bases are celebrating if we keep Ewing. .

How can it hurt their metrics if X win? that doesn't make sense.

Many of these ratings criteria take the strength of opponent into account in various ways. Playing us will lower Xavier’s overall strength of schedule in a way that it wouldn’t if we just didn’t play the game. It’s the same as when we play a sub-300 team in the non-conference. Plus, many of these metrics take into account some expectation of victory. Basically, Xavier should blow us out as a statistical matter. If they win a close one, they will under-perform. Now, we won’t sink their season if they win, but they gain nothing by playing us.

[professorhoya]

Mar 5, 2022 11:18:07 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

Mar 5, 2022 11:06:56 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

How can it hurt their metrics if X win? that doesn't make sense.

Many of these ratings criteria take the strength of opponent into account in various ways. Playing us will lower Xavier’s overall strength of schedule in a way that it wouldn’t if we just didn’t play the game. It’s the same as when we play a sub-300 team in the non-conference. Plus, many of these metrics take into account some expectation of victory. Basically, Xavier should blow us out as a statistical matter. If they win a close one, they will under-perform. Now, we won’t sink their season if they win, but they gain nothing by playing us.

I believe SOS as a sole metric was done away when they went to NET rankings.

A bad loss (to a really bad team) dome damage.
But I think beating a badly ranked team doesn't hurt anymore.

[bamahoya11]

Mar 5, 2022 11:24:04 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Mar 5, 2022 11:18:07 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

Many of these ratings criteria take the strength of opponent into account in various ways. Playing us will lower Xavier’s overall strength of schedule in a way that it wouldn’t if we just didn’t play the game. It’s the same as when we play a sub-300 team in the non-conference. Plus, many of these metrics take into account some expectation of victory. Basically, Xavier should blow us out as a statistical matter. If they win a close one, they will under-perform. Now, we won’t sink their season if they win, but they gain nothing by playing us.

I believe SOS as a sole metric was done away when they went to NET rankings.

A bad loss (to a really bad team) dome damage.
But I think beating a badly ranked team doesn't hurt anymore.

Here’s the overview of the NCAA’s NET ranking process: www.google.com/amp/s/www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained%3famp

Other services like KenPom have more advanced criteria that accounts for things like this, but I still read strength of schedule to matter here, it’s just accounted for in a somewhat more nuanced way.

[hoyainla]

Mar 5, 2022 11:24:04 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Mar 5, 2022 11:18:07 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

Many of these ratings criteria take the strength of opponent into account in various ways. Playing us will lower Xavier’s overall strength of schedule in a way that it wouldn’t if we just didn’t play the game. It’s the same as when we play a sub-300 team in the non-conference. Plus, many of these metrics take into account some expectation of victory. Basically, Xavier should blow us out as a statistical matter. If they win a close one, they will under-perform. Now, we won’t sink their season if they win, but they gain nothing by playing us.

I believe SOS as a sole metric was done away when they went to NET rankings.

A bad loss (to a really bad team) dome damage.
But I think beating a badly ranked team doesn't hurt anymore.

This is categorically false. Basically they have to beat us by more than the spread (13) to gain anything. We have been hurting teams all year even though we are losing. If they lose today they would be out anyway but we are a Quad 4 loss now. That is how bad we are.