jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,999
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Post by jwp91 on Oct 30, 2021 18:39:02 GMT -5
I’m starting to think about analytics for the new season.
I see KenPom starts the Hoyas at #76 - #8 in the conference.
Offensive efficiency is forecasted at 105.5 ranked #83
Defensive efficiency 94.1 ranked #65
Possessions are forecasted at 73.7 ranked #77
So our defense is respected more than our offense. Tempo appears less than I expect.
Anyone remember which website provides PPP by player/line-up? I can’t remember and need to renew my subscription. I,l probably renew Synergy as well. Any new stats services that are worthwhile?
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hoyaduck
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Hoya Saxa
Posts: 1,447 
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Post by hoyaduck on Nov 1, 2021 10:35:26 GMT -5
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,657
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Post by seaweed on Nov 1, 2021 10:47:36 GMT -5
Stats maybe, but predictions are different - we lost 52.5 ppg and he thinks our two leading scorers are going to pick up 4.4 ppm combined. I'll take that bet. Oh, and they both still outscore Mohammed. Plus Dante only adds half an assist/gm and zero rebbies. I see better from our guys. |
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
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Post by rhw485 on Nov 3, 2021 14:29:09 GMT -5
between barttorvik.com and hoop-math.com I get most of what I'm looking for. really just missing the lineup specific stuff at that point and player specific defensive stats. I'm generally a seller of player specific defensive stats so not the end of the world imo.
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,999
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 17, 2021 10:07:28 GMT -5
A couple of observations from scanning various sites:
So far we are averaging 72.5 possessions (#72) which is lower than I expected (KenPom). We have had segments of both games in which we played at a much faster pace but on average we aren't playing that fast.
So far, this team has been able to rebound well...especially defensively. Tim, Aminu, Dante, and Jalin all seem particularly well suited for defensive rebounding. (Yes, Dante...he skies for boards). Besides our centers, Aminu is a extremely talented offensive rebounder, but offensive rebounding is not showing up a strength for the team as defensive is.
Except for Don (56%) and Aminu (42%), everyone else is really struggling from 3 point shooting between 20-33% so far.
Don has so far played the most efficiently/effectively. We need to see if he can maintain that with increased possessions used.
So far we are not giving up a ton of free throws. We rank #22 in FTA/FGA. So that is good news and a bit refreshing. At least we shouldn't consistently have massive free throw deficits.
We have changed from one of the best shooting free throw Hoya teams to one of the worst. So far we are shooting 63%. Aminu, Jordon, and Dante need to figure that out as they are the culprits.
47% of our opponents' attempts are 3 pointers vs. 32% for us. That is a recipe for losing. Both those numbers need to moderate.
Our teams ranks #331 in experience...and we have been feeling every bit of that. The good news is that this team can only improve over the course of this season. We will take our lumps at times, but I think we will also have our moments.
Minutes last night were incredibly balanced. 10 players played more than 9 minutes...and Collin and Kobe weren't even available. From listening to Ewing getting experience across the roster might be a priority for the season.
I will be interested to see what others glean from the data so far.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2021 10:56:34 GMT -5
Do this again in a month, after we've played 10 games.
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Post by Retro_hoya on Nov 17, 2021 12:02:35 GMT -5
A couple of observations from scanning various sites: So far we are averaging 72.5 possessions (#72) which is lower than I expected (KenPom). We have had segments of both games in which we played at a much faster pace but on average we aren't playing that fast. So far, this team has been able to rebound well...especially defensively. Tim, Aminu, Dante, and Jalin all seem particularly well suited for defensive rebounding. (Yes, Dante...he skies for boards). Besides our centers, Aminu is a extremely talented offensive rebounder, but offensive rebounding is not showing up a strength for the team as defensive is. Except for Don (56%) and Aminu (42%), everyone else is really struggling from 3 point shooting between 20-33% so far. Don has so far played the most efficiently/effectively. We need to see if he can maintain that with increased possessions used. So far we are not giving up a ton of free throws. We rank #22 in FTA/FGA. So that is good news and a bit refreshing. At least we shouldn't consistently have massive free throw deficits. We have changed from one of the best shooting free throw Hoya teams to one of the worst. So far we are shooting 63%. Aminu, Jordon, and Dante need to figure that out as they are the culprits. 47% of our opponents' attempts are 3 pointers vs. 32% for us. That is a recipe for losing. Both those numbers need to moderate. Our teams ranks #331 in experience...and we have been feeling every bit of that. The good news is that this team can only improve over the course of this season. We will take our lumps at times, but I think we will also have our moments. Minutes last night were incredibly balanced. 10 players played more than 9 minutes...and Collin and Kobe weren't even available. From listening to Ewing getting experience across the roster might be a priority for the season. I will be interested to see what others glean from the data so far. Thanks for pulling all this together! I understand if it’s too much of an ask but I, for one, would be greatly appreciative if you pulled something similar every 3-5 games! |
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,261
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Post by hoyaboya on Nov 17, 2021 12:24:08 GMT -5
Does anybody have a cumulative +/- from the first two games?
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
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Post by rhw485 on Nov 17, 2021 12:43:16 GMT -5
A couple of observations from scanning various sites: So far we are averaging 72.5 possessions (#72) which is lower than I expected (KenPom). We have had segments of both games in which we played at a much faster pace but on average we aren't playing that fast. So far, this team has been able to rebound well...especially defensively. Tim, Aminu, Dante, and Jalin all seem particularly well suited for defensive rebounding. (Yes, Dante...he skies for boards). Besides our centers, Aminu is a extremely talented offensive rebounder, but offensive rebounding is not showing up a strength for the team as defensive is. Except for Don (56%) and Aminu (42%), everyone else is really struggling from 3 point shooting between 20-33% so far. Don has so far played the most efficiently/effectively. We need to see if he can maintain that with increased possessions used. So far we are not giving up a ton of free throws. We rank #22 in FTA/FGA. So that is good news and a bit refreshing. At least we shouldn't consistently have massive free throw deficits. We have changed from one of the best shooting free throw Hoya teams to one of the worst. So far we are shooting 63%. Aminu, Jordon, and Dante need to figure that out as they are the culprits. 47% of our opponents' attempts are 3 pointers vs. 32% for us. That is a recipe for losing. Both those numbers need to moderate. Our teams ranks #331 in experience...and we have been feeling every bit of that. The good news is that this team can only improve over the course of this season. We will take our lumps at times, but I think we will also have our moments. Minutes last night were incredibly balanced. 10 players played more than 9 minutes...and Collin and Kobe weren't even available. From listening to Ewing getting experience across the roster might be a priority for the season. I will be interested to see what others glean from the data so far. Will echo others in that unfortunately it's really too early to look at a lot of this stuff. Particularly because the games were so different from each other. For example, the Free Throw Rate rank of 22 is because we were literally number 1 in the country after the Dartmouth game. We fouled a ton last night, no idea what's sustainable. Even the 47% of opponents attempts from 3 is an average of two extremes from two data points. But two things I have been focused on... - tempo as you mentioned....that 72.2 would still be the fastest in Ewing's tenure. Curious to see if that holds up or continues to go up. Would expect our wins to be games played at a faster tempo.
- Defensive turnover rate...for both games was over 20%. For me that was the driver of the defensive improvements so hopefully we can keep that going
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,999
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 17, 2021 18:52:17 GMT -5
Yes, clearly a very small sample, and we must be very careful about conclusions…..but it is a hell of a lot more evidence than most of the assessments posted on this board have.
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